Gaudreau matched MacKinnon's point total last year, has put up damn near three PPG seasons in his career and is on an extremely friendly deal for the next three years. They would scoff at that offer and rightfully so. If he demanded a trade it may drop the asking price a smidge, but even so they would probably be asking for the Duchene deal as framework and then some.
Using points as the only evaluation tool is not going to create a very strong argument.
For starters Mack is a Center while Gaudreau is a Winger... Big difference between the two right off the bat. Secondly, a lot of Gaudreaus value is generated off the PP, which isn't necessarily a bad thing but it does impact his value. And third, given Gaudreaus size and history in the playoffs at this point, his value also takes a hit for those factors.
Plus again.... The only scenario in which Gaudreau is dealt is one where the Flames and/or Gaudreau both decide a change is necessary. In said scenario you automatically lose value because it's not a situation where "either we get an offer we cant refuse or we keep him" type of situation but a situation where one or both sides have decided they want to go in a different direction.
And you use the Duchene trade as what you think would be the framework.... That's actually quite close to what I have already suggested. There wasn't an "A" level asset exchanged in that trade besides Duchene. The original deal saw the Avs get:
- Bowers, a B level prospect who was always pretty limited in offensive upside and was considered a "safe" pick his draft year because of that limited upside.
- Girard, a B/B+ level prospect who had fantastic junior numbers but size concerns limited the kind of perceived value he would have.
- Kamenev, a B- level prospect that was trending downward after failing to leave an impression at Nashvilles training camp despite promising looking AHL numbers.
- A 1st round pick that was projected to be in the very late 20s
- A 2nd round pick that was projected to be in the very late 50s
- A 3rd round pick that was projected to be in the very late 80s
So it was essentially a trio of B level prospect, a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd. No asset anywhere close to the value of what Byram carries right now. Not only that, but that deal was almost immediately considered to be a massive haul for the Avs even before the pick turned into what it did. A return that almost nobody expected to see. It was actually one of those rare situations where the team trading the star player got a lot of really good value.
Newhook + Timmins + 1st is actually very close in value to what the Avs got in return for Duchene. Timmins and Girard would be a wash. The two 1st round picks would be a wash. And Newhook as a prospect right now is in that borderline "A" level. I would certainly think Calgary would much prefer to get a borderline blue chip quality prospect rather than a few B level prospects and mid round draft picks to fill out the deal.
The Duchene trade is probably actually a decent metric to use for a potential Gaudreau deal. Gaudreau has that one extra year on his deal, but Duchene is also a Center which balances out that extra year pretty much.
I think a potential Gaudreau trade would go either one of two ways... Either they get an A+ quality prospect like Byram, but without very much attached to him. Similar to how Ottawa swung for the fences taking basically just Brannstrom and a late pick for an extended Stone, but they wanted a guy they firmly believe will be high impact in return. So maybe something like Byram + Jost as a comparable to that deal. The other direction it could go would be where they dont go after a true A+ level piece, but instead opt for a massive haul of assets in the hopes that the sum of all of its parts can amount to better value than Gaudreau... Similar to that Duchene deal or what the Sens opted to go for in the Karlsson deal. Something like Timmins + Kaut + Annunen + Zhuravlyov + 1st type of deal where they aren't getting an A+ guy, but they get 3-4 pieces that have legit NHL upside, and a chance to draft a guy they're very high on themselves in the next draft. And they would hope that 2-3 of those pieces become impact guys in the NHL down the road. Both deals would be risky for both sides as well. For the Flames if they put all there marbles in one basket on Byram and he busts they get basically nothing. On the flip side with the massive haul of pieces where none of them are elite, they dont have as much hope of getting a high impact guy and then even if a couple of them carve out NHL careers they may not equate to the value of what losing Gaudreau does. From an Avs perspective, Gaudreau may not fit the team and continue his playoff struggles while Byram or the package of assets they give up do end up panning out in Calgary and they wind up with a great future akin to what the Avs have going for themselves right now.
But it's not going to be anything like Byram AND a haul of 3-4 additional solid future pieces. Because you blue chip guys like Byram just carry so much value in todays game where cap space is so important and high end NHLers are breaking out younger and younger. A guy like Byram could easily be playing 20+ minutes a night and performing like a legit Top pairing Defender in the league as soon as next season in the right situation.
Anyways.... End long post on why Superstars rarely get the value perceived around the league.
