Four years is a long, long time away so it is a bit silly to be doing this... but I'll do it anyway since I have nothing else to do for the next hour until the game starts. So lets do a little deep dive on our potential cap situation.
First of all, lets assume the cap continues rising at the same approximate pace that it has the last 4 years, for the next 4 years as well. So 4 years ago we had a cap of 71.4M. Which means an increase of 10.1M in 4 years, or 14.1% over 4 years. So, if we use that same number to forecast the cap 4 years from now, we're looking at a cap of ~93M in 4 years from now.
Now we'll get into the contracts. Unless Macks game takes a significant nose dive in the next 4 years, his next deal is going to be the one that "resets" the market again for Free Agents like McDavids deal reset things when he signed for 12.5M. So McDavids 12.5M deal started last season when the cap was 79.5M, meaning his 12.5M was 15.7% of his teams cap. For the sake of this analysis we're going to say Mack signs his new deal for a similar 15% of the cap in 4 years from now. That means a cap hit of 14M for Mack on his next deal.
So, when the 2023-24 season starts, we will have 14M spent on Mackinnon, 9.25M spent on Rantanen, and 5M spent on Girard. Those are the 3 players signed beyond that season as of right now. Meaning 30% of our cap space is used.
Now we start filling in the roster with other important guys who will be here. Landeskog tops that list. His next deal is very likely to be in the same neighborhood of what Mikko just signed. For simplicity sake we'll say he signs for 9M, which I think might even be on the low side 2 years from now but we'll use that number anyway. Then you have Makar. It's hard to estimate his deal without seeing what Dahlin signs for first as Dahlin will very likely reset things for Dmen again as well. But, lets say Dahlin signs for ~9M.... Makar probably comes in for 8M. After that, you have Byram. He'll be an RFA in 2023/24(Assuming he's a full time NHLer next season which I think is pretty fair to assume), and again unless things go poorly with him, he should be in the same ballpark as Makar, maybe slightly less since he likely doesn't have the offensive numbers Makar will have. So lets say 7M for Byram. Next on the list would be Grubauer. Currently making 3.333M. If he proves to be a legit starting goalie for us(And he's close to being established in this regard already), then you're looking at ~6M for him also.
So... under this future outlook we are looking like a potential 2023-24 roster something along the lines of this so far:
Mack - 14M
Mikko - 9.25M
Landy - 9M
Makar - 8M
Byram - 7M
Grubauer - 6M
Girard - 5M
7/23 roster players, taking up 58.25M of our cap space. 63% roughly. Meaning we would have just under 35M left to sign our entire 2nd line, bottom 6, #4 Dman, bottom pairing Defense, 13th forward and 7th Dman, and backup goalie.
If we want to still be a contending team. Our 2nd line is going to have to take up 20M of that 35M remaining space along. An average of ~6.66M per player on that line means you're getting legit 50-60 point 2nd line guys. That then leaves 15M for your depth options. Right now, on our bottom 6, bottom 3 Dmen, extra skaters and backup goalie the Avs are spending almost 25M. And that includes having 4 guys on ELCs or ELC level money in that group.
Long story short of it is if the Avs want to have a window last more than 4 years. They simply have to start hitting on later picks in the draft. Without having quality players on ELCs in 4 years from now, this team has no chance of remaining a contender. And given our draft record over the last decade in those late rounds, the outlook is not good.
So basically one of two things needs to happen. Either the Avs management needs to recognize our best chance to win a cup(And probably our only chance) is in the next 4 years before Macks, Gabes, Grubs, Cales, etc's new deals kick in.... And thus we need to get very aggressive about using what cap space and assets we do have right now to make this team as good as it can possibly be over the next 4 years. OR, our drafting has to do a complete 180 in the next 4 years and when Macks new deal kicks in we need to have a Legit Top 4D on his ELC still, a legit Top 6 forward on his ELC still, and multiple quality bottom 6 guys making very little money.
I certainly know what should be done.
