Rumor: 2019-2020 Trade Rumours and Free Agent Discussion Part 2

[MarkT]

Dadonov would be a fantastic addition to the Top 6.

I did not realize Dadonov was a UFA this summer either. He might be my #2 target behind Hall this season. Think he'd compliment our current Top 6 incredibly well.


If Florida is out of it in December I'd offer Jost for Dadonov and then immediately try and work on 5-6 year extension for Dads in the ~7M neighborhood.

You'd want to extend a 31-year-old for 5-6 years?

I'm on board with Dadonov as a rental, but let some other team deal with the 36 year old version, please.

 

[MarkT]

I think Hayes is the only one that could compare to a non starting level goalie making 10mil a year.

I dunno... a defenseman with only one working ankle making 11.5 till he's 36 is pretty bad.

 

[Gatorbait19]

You'd want to extend a 31-year-old for 5-6 years?

I'm on board with Dadonov as a rental, but let some other team deal with the 36 year old version, please.

I would love to add Dads, but not at any cost. I can see Joe offering a 3-4 year deal but no more. You also don’t want to go longer than that with a guy that could easily jump back to the KHL like Kovalchuk. Regardless, I think he stays in Fla.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I dunno... a defenseman with only one working ankle making 11.5 till he's 36 is pretty bad.

He's still a near generational talent so it'll take more than 4 games before I totally write him off.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

You'd want to extend a 31-year-old for 5-6 years?

I'm on board with Dadonov as a rental, but let some other team deal with the 36 year old version, please.

Yes?

He's only been in the NHL for a few years and the KHL isn't nearly as much of a grind on the body as the NHL is. I wouldn't be concerned at all about Dadonov wearing down with the style of play he brings.


Plus, getting him for 5-6 years versus 3 or 4 means you can sign him to a new deal that starts with a 7.xxx, versus only a 3 or 4 year deal that likely starts with an 8 or even 9.xxx

And given the Avs window is the next 3-4 years I would much rather have that extra couple million to spend on improvements elsewhere and then if Dadonov does regress in the last couple years we're likely in a re-tool phase at that point anyway for a year or two so it doesn't matter so much.

 

[hockeyviking]

Yes?

He's only been in the NHL for a few years and the KHL isn't nearly as much of a grind on the body as the NHL is. I wouldn't be concerned at all about Dadonov wearing down with the style of play he brings.


Plus, getting him for 5-6 years versus 3 or 4 means you can sign him to a new deal that starts with a 7.xxx, versus only a 3 or 4 year deal that likely starts with an 8 or even 9.xxx

And given the Avs window is the next 3-4 years I would much rather have that extra couple million to spend on
improvements elsewhere and then if Dadonov does regress in the last couple years we're likely in a re-tool phase at that point anyway for a year or two so it doesn't matter so much.

And if you frontload the contract there is allways à team that needs to reach the floor but for les money.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

And if you frontload the contract there is allways à team that needs to reach the floor but for les money.

Exactly.

If he falls off a cliff at the end of the deal it wouldn't be hard to move the contract with just 1-2 years left on it.

 

[MarkT]

He's still a near generational talent so it'll take more than 4 games before I totally write him off.

I thought it was bad signing the second it was done. The first 4 games just added more evidence. Yes, he's a generational talent, but that ankle injury looks like it's never going to fully heal, so what you're getting is a generational talent with a serious flaw that will eventually be know by every player in the league. If every player knows he literally can't turn, they're going to use that to beat him over and over again.

Yes?

He's only been in the NHL for a few years and the KHL isn't nearly as much of a grind on the body as the NHL is. I wouldn't be concerned at all about Dadonov wearing down with the style of play he brings.


Plus, getting him for 5-6 years versus 3 or 4 means you can sign him to a new deal that starts with a 7.xxx, versus only a 3 or 4 year deal that likely starts with an 8 or even 9.xxx

And given the Avs window is the next 3-4 years I would much rather have that extra couple million to spend on improvements elsewhere and then if Dadonov does regress in the last couple years we're likely in a re-tool phase at that point anyway for a year or two so it doesn't matter so much.

It's not about grind. It's about age. Players that lose ability to due to grind usually start sucking before they're even 30 (see: Lucic). It's extremely rare that a player is still a very effective player into their mid 30s. What you're talking about is signing a player to what they're worth when their 31, then watching as that player's value drops every single year, but their cap hit remains the same.

Also, where is it written as a fact that the Avs' window is 3-4 years? The only reason that might be the case is if MacKinnon leaves after his contract is up. If you think it's his contract that will sink us, take a look at all the money that comes off the books between now and then. What does change after MacKinnon's contract is up is that we'll have less cap room to play with and will likely start losing players here and there due to cap issues. What we don't need at that time is a 35 year old making 7+ million forcing us to part with promising younger players. It's moves like signing Dadonov long-term that will cause our window to be only 3-4 years. If we stay away from contracts like that I see no reason we can't remain in contention for as long as MacKinnon is here.

Exactly.

If he falls off a cliff at the end of the deal it wouldn't be hard to move the contract with just 1-2 years left on it.

Tell that to the Leafs and Marleau. Or Vancouver and Eriksson.

 

[Gatorbait19]

I thought it was bad signing the second it was done. The first 4 games just added more evidence. Yes, he's a generational talent, but that ankle injury looks like it's never going to fully heal, so what you're getting is a generational talent with a serious flaw that will eventually be know by every player in the league. If every player knows he literally can't turn, they're going to use that to beat him over and over again.



It's not about grind. It's about age. Players that lose ability to due to grind usually start sucking before they're even 30 (see: Lucic). It's extremely rare that a player is still a very effective player into their mid 30s. What you're talking about is signing a player to what they're worth when their 31, then watching as that player's value drops every single year, but their cap hit remains the same.

Also, where is it written as a fact that the Avs' window is 3-4 years? The only reason that might be the case is if MacKinnon leaves after his contract is up. If you think it's his contract that will sink us, take a look at all the money that comes off the books between now and then. What does change after MacKinnon's contract is up is that we'll have less cap room to play with and will likely start losing players here and there due to cap issues. What we don't need at that time is a 35 year old making 7+ million forcing us to part with promising younger players. It's moves like signing Dadonov long-term that will cause our window to be only 3-4 years. If we stay away from contracts like that I see no reason we can't remain in contention for as long as MacKinnon is here.



Tell that to the Leafs and Marleau. Or Vancouver and Eriksson.

The Karlsson contract was a bad contract from the get go, because it’s a contract that’s worse each year. Karlsson isn’t going to get any better and on the decline for the duration of the deal. With that said, Karlsson is a notoriously slow starter, but is quickly becoming a bigger and bigger defensive liability. Throw in his injury issues, and it could be a recipe for disaster.

Also, the game is changing/evolving in a way we’ve never really seen before. Speed is paramount in today’s game and that’s why youth is winning the day and a big driving force behind the RFA $$$ explosion. A quick look at the top 100 point producers for the last 5 years shows that 4-5 years ago, about 30% of the top 100 point producers were 30+. However over the last 2-3 years, that’s dropped to about 20%. That’s a huge difference and illustrative of how important it is to stay away from long term deals for guys after 30.

Again with Dadanov, he’d be an excellent player and fit for us....for about 3 years. After that I’d anticipate a serious drop off and/or dead money if he went back to Russia.

Edit: I’d give Dadonov a 3yr $8m/year or 4yr $7m/year deal no questions asked. Would consider adding a little $$$ even to secure him. I wouldn’t be willing to do that 5th year though.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

From your fingertips to Joe's ears

It's imminently doable, but I just worry that it'll be too tempting for Joe to wait this season out since our blueline inexperience should (in theory) solve itself (sooner or later) and since I get the feeling that Joe expects Newhook to be that final piece upfront, who can feed Kadri for 30+

So I'm skeptical that we'll actually be aggressive about putting ourselves in position to capitalize on this season, even though I totally agree that it's very doable & wouldn't require giving up the farm.

Isn't Newhook something like 2+ years away from potentialy being a factor in the NHL?? I'll be the first to turn on him if that's his plan!!!! I think Newhook is closer to being the Kadri replacement than the missing piece of the puzzle.

 

[Balthazar]

Also, where is it written as a fact that the Avs' window is 3-4 years? The only reason that might be the case is if MacKinnon leaves after his contract is up.

The funniest thing is we currently have 6.3M in cap space, which means that we could afford the exact same team with Mack making 12.5M which is roughly what he'd make as a free agent today. And that's including paying 2.75M of Barrie's salary. If the Leafs survived overpaying all their stars, we'll survive Mack's contract just fine.

 

[Ararana]

The funniest thing is we currently have 6.3M in cap space, which means that we could afford the exact same team with Mack making 12.5M which is roughly what he'd make as a free agent today. And that's including paying 2.75M of Barrie's salary. If the Leafs survived overpaying all their stars, we'll survive Mack's contract just fine.

In before @henchman24 sees this

 

[henchman21]

In before @henchman24 sees this

If it was only about MacKinnon the Avs would be completely fine.

 

[The Abusement Park]

The funniest thing is we currently have 6.3M in cap space, which means that we could afford the exact same team with Mack making 12.5M which is roughly what he'd make as a free agent today. And that's including paying 2.75M of Barrie's salary. If the Leafs survived overpaying all their stars, we'll survive Mack's contract just fine.

I didn't realize that we weren't adding anymore players for the next 4 years.

 

[flyfysher]

If it was only about MacKinnon the Avs would be completely fine.

Our resident pessimist...Er, strike that. Our resident realist.

 

[Balthazar]

I didn't realize that we weren't adding anymore players for the next 4 years.

That's right. It will stay a 23-man roster.

 

[The Abusement Park]

That's right. It will stay a 23-man roster.

No roster turnover for 4 seasons seems pretty unlikely, but ok.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

No roster turnover for 4 seasons seems pretty unlikely, but ok.

A 23-man roster... not the same 23-man roster

 

[Balthazar]

No roster turnover for 4 seasons seems pretty unlikely, but ok.

We'll add money and substract money too, your comment about adding new players doesn't make sense.

 

[The Abusement Park]

We'll add money and substract money too, your comment about adding new players doesn't make sense.

I'm saying just because we have the 6mil to afford macks raise now doesn't mean we are gonna have the same luxury 4 years further into our contention window.

 

[flyfysher]

I'm saying just because we have the 6mil to afford macks raise now doesn't mean we are gonna have the same luxury 4 years further into our contention window.

So you mean Sakic did good in not paying Rantanen $11M AAV like Marner? Just kidding as I completely agree with you but all this contention window talk really points out the value of strategically managing the team's cap so as to maintain maximum flexibility.

It also makes me sad because it seems likely that players like Zadorov, who is a fav, will likely become a cap casualty. So enjoy the ride while it lasts and hope we win the SC with Zadorov this season.

 

[Avs44]

The Avs are going to have some big extensions coming up besides MacK...Landy will be near the top of that list (hopefully he's team friendly); Kadri; if Makar does well he'll be cashing in too. Getting Girard locked up long term was huge. Money will be tight...but I really do think it could be manageable if the club can move away from the moderate money deals they've been handing out to middling forwards and defensmen. If our drafting can figure its **** out, the Cole's, Calverts, Bellemare's, Wilson's, and even Donskoi's and Compher's of this world should be comfortably replaced by cycles of ELC's. A competent club should be able to find guys capable of filling those middling positions with late 1sts and 2nds / 3rds.

I really think that dynamic will determine how long the Avs have a window. They've got elite talent (and probably could even afford to pay another high end forward) and the cash to pay their top guys. They just need their drafting and development side of things to be capable of finding all of those depth tweeners who are so key to success.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Four years is a long, long time away so it is a bit silly to be doing this... but I'll do it anyway since I have nothing else to do for the next hour until the game starts. So lets do a little deep dive on our potential cap situation.


First of all, lets assume the cap continues rising at the same approximate pace that it has the last 4 years, for the next 4 years as well. So 4 years ago we had a cap of 71.4M. Which means an increase of 10.1M in 4 years, or 14.1% over 4 years. So, if we use that same number to forecast the cap 4 years from now, we're looking at a cap of ~93M in 4 years from now.

Now we'll get into the contracts. Unless Macks game takes a significant nose dive in the next 4 years, his next deal is going to be the one that "resets" the market again for Free Agents like McDavids deal reset things when he signed for 12.5M. So McDavids 12.5M deal started last season when the cap was 79.5M, meaning his 12.5M was 15.7% of his teams cap. For the sake of this analysis we're going to say Mack signs his new deal for a similar 15% of the cap in 4 years from now. That means a cap hit of 14M for Mack on his next deal.

So, when the 2023-24 season starts, we will have 14M spent on Mackinnon, 9.25M spent on Rantanen, and 5M spent on Girard. Those are the 3 players signed beyond that season as of right now. Meaning 30% of our cap space is used.

Now we start filling in the roster with other important guys who will be here. Landeskog tops that list. His next deal is very likely to be in the same neighborhood of what Mikko just signed. For simplicity sake we'll say he signs for 9M, which I think might even be on the low side 2 years from now but we'll use that number anyway. Then you have Makar. It's hard to estimate his deal without seeing what Dahlin signs for first as Dahlin will very likely reset things for Dmen again as well. But, lets say Dahlin signs for ~9M.... Makar probably comes in for 8M. After that, you have Byram. He'll be an RFA in 2023/24(Assuming he's a full time NHLer next season which I think is pretty fair to assume), and again unless things go poorly with him, he should be in the same ballpark as Makar, maybe slightly less since he likely doesn't have the offensive numbers Makar will have. So lets say 7M for Byram. Next on the list would be Grubauer. Currently making 3.333M. If he proves to be a legit starting goalie for us(And he's close to being established in this regard already), then you're looking at ~6M for him also.

So... under this future outlook we are looking like a potential 2023-24 roster something along the lines of this so far:


Mack - 14M
Mikko - 9.25M
Landy - 9M
Makar - 8M
Byram - 7M
Grubauer - 6M
Girard - 5M


7/23 roster players, taking up 58.25M of our cap space. 63% roughly. Meaning we would have just under 35M left to sign our entire 2nd line, bottom 6, #4 Dman, bottom pairing Defense, 13th forward and 7th Dman, and backup goalie.

If we want to still be a contending team. Our 2nd line is going to have to take up 20M of that 35M remaining space along. An average of ~6.66M per player on that line means you're getting legit 50-60 point 2nd line guys. That then leaves 15M for your depth options. Right now, on our bottom 6, bottom 3 Dmen, extra skaters and backup goalie the Avs are spending almost 25M. And that includes having 4 guys on ELCs or ELC level money in that group.

Long story short of it is if the Avs want to have a window last more than 4 years. They simply have to start hitting on later picks in the draft. Without having quality players on ELCs in 4 years from now, this team has no chance of remaining a contender. And given our draft record over the last decade in those late rounds, the outlook is not good.

So basically one of two things needs to happen. Either the Avs management needs to recognize our best chance to win a cup(And probably our only chance) is in the next 4 years before Macks, Gabes, Grubs, Cales, etc's new deals kick in.... And thus we need to get very aggressive about using what cap space and assets we do have right now to make this team as good as it can possibly be over the next 4 years. OR, our drafting has to do a complete 180 in the next 4 years and when Macks new deal kicks in we need to have a Legit Top 4D on his ELC still, a legit Top 6 forward on his ELC still, and multiple quality bottom 6 guys making very little money.


I certainly know what should be done.

 

[avsfan09]

Spending an average of 6.6 on your second line is probably disingenuous. Very few teams ice 3 top end guys. You usually can find a complimentary guy. 6.6 is what you pay your top end second liners.

So lets say Mack comes on at 12. Newhook comes in on his elc and takes a top six spot and saves another six. Theres 8 right there. Maybe landeskog takes a team friendly deal preferring term and safety over cap hit.

I guess what I’m saying is that we still need to be smart with both contracts and assets and to remain flexible. Now I get that we can win a cup but you still have to be picky with your assets and which players you add.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Spending an average of 6.6 on your second line is probably disingenuous. Very few teams ice 3 top end guys. You usually can find a complimentary guy. 6.6 is what you pay your top end second liners.

So lets say Mack comes on at 12. Newhook comes in on his elc and takes a top six spot and saves another six. Theres 8 right there. Maybe landeskog takes a team friendly deal preferring term and safety over cap hit.

I guess what I’m saying is that we still need to be smart with both contracts and assets and to remain flexible. Now I get that we can win a cup but you still have to be picky with your assets and which players you add.

Mack is making more than 12 unless he regresses back to his 50-60pt self.