Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 8

[hohosaregood]

Pageau is the only one of those players who could potentially move the dial. I don't personally think another Marcus Sorensen level player is going to be enough, although I had hoped it would be to start the season.

I don't consider Sorenson on that tier in the first place. I'm thinking more of a Donskoi+ caliber player and those guys usually come in between $2m-$4m. Obviously, we have no cap space whatsoever but that's the caliber of player I want to add. Going for something better is unrealistic unless the team is really in favor of selling on a valuable asset to remove a high value asset. Like Chekhovich+Vlasic+1st to get a Zucker or something with extremely unbalanced value against us.

 

[Alwalys]

I’ve been avoiding doing this for a while because I knew it’d just depress me, but I finally went over to natural stat trick to check out the Sharks and here are the notable things:

1) How does Brent Burns have a 50% 5v5 score adjusted xGF% while Vlasic, his defense partner, has 40%??? Across the board Burns’ possession numbers are way higher than Vlasic’s. Like, to an unexplainable degree. It’s insane.

doesnt burns play with ek65 sometimes, and don't they corsi all over the other team in those minutes?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

doesnt burns play with ek65 sometimes, and don't they corsi all over the other team in those minutes?

Not this season.

Vlasic and Burns - 97 minutes, 46.99% CF, 45.59% xGF

Ferraro and Burns - 29 minutes, 60.38% CF, 59.5% xGF
Dillon and Burns - 24 minutes, 54.76% CF, 70.53% xGF

Karlsson and Burns - 10 minutes, 44.44% CF, 40.85% xGF

It’s those odd shifts with Ferraro and Dillon that you’re seeing there.

 

[Barrie22]

Not this season.

Vlasic and Burns - 97 minutes, 46.99% CF, 45.59% xGF

Ferraro and Burns - 29 minutes, 60.38% CF, 59.5% xGF
Dillon and Burns - 24 minutes, 54.76% CF, 70.53% xGF

Karlsson and Burns - 10 minutes, 44.44% CF, 40.85% xGF

It’s those odd shifts with Ferraro and Dillon that you’re seeing there.

God why is vlasic so hard to play with? Starting to make me think that all these years of his horrible possession stats were never actually to do with his deployment/partners. Its just that he really was never actually as good as we thought he was.

If you are able to make possesion jedis in karlsson and burns look mediocre its really not a good thing. Especially when you have dillon who can barely defend against a pylon making them look even more jedi then they normally do.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

God why is vlasic so hard to play with? Starting to make me think that all these years of his horrible possession stats were never actually to do with his deployment/partners. Its just that he really was never actually as good as we thought he was.

If you are able to make possesion jedis in karlsson and burns look mediocre its really not a good thing. Especially when you have dillon who can barely defend against a pylon making them look even more jedi then they normally do.

It was only 2016-2017 when Vlasic’s possession stats started to drop off. Prior to that, they were consistently very strong.

However, there is some evidence that says that even when his numbers had dropped off, they were due to deployment and partners. If you look at something like Evolving Wild’s RAPM metric, which accounts for teammates, deployment, etc., Vlasic was still very good until 2018-2019.

2013-2014: +9.33 Corsi Impact/60
2014-2015: +2.52
2015-2016: +2.83
2016-2017: +1.52
2017-2018: +3.12
2018-2019: -2.43

His 2013-2014 season was truly phenomenal from a possession standpoint and he was never going to return to that. But every other season after that was still very good, and among defensemen with 1000 minutes, his per-minute impact ranked 67th or higher in every season. But now his possession numbers are terrible. And I can promise you once the numbers are released for this season, they will look horrible.

I think it’s time we start to consider that Dillon isn’t all that bad. This is the second year in a row he’s posted some pretty solid metrics. He hasn’t looked great at all times, but it’s not like anybody else on the defense has, and Dillon has posted some of the strongest results for two years running. He was horrible in the playoffs but maybe that was more of a blip on the radar.

 

[Barrie22]

It was only 2016-2017 when Vlasic’s possession stats started to drop off. Prior to that, they were consistently very strong.

However, there is some evidence that says that even when his numbers had dropped off, they were due to deployment and partners. If you look at something like Evolving Wild’s RAPM metric, which accounts for teammates, deployment, etc., Vlasic was still very good until 2018-2019.

2013-2014: +9.33 Corsi Impact/60
2014-2015: +2.52
2015-2016: +2.83
2016-2017: +1.52
2017-2018: +3.12
2018-2019: -2.43

His 2013-2014 season was truly phenomenal from a possession standpoint and he was never going to return to that. But every other season after that was still very good, and among defensemen with 1000 minutes, his per-minute impact ranked 67th or higher in every season. But now his possession numbers are terrible. And I can promise you once the numbers are released for this season, they will look horrible.

I think it’s time we start to consider that Dillon isn’t all that bad. This is the second year in a row he’s posted some pretty solid metrics. He hasn’t looked great at all times, but it’s not like anybody else on the defense has, and Dillon has posted some of the strongest results for two years running. He was horrible in the playoffs but maybe that was more of a blip on the radar.

Weren't his cf% like always in the early 40's? Or am i just remembering it wrong now that it is just recent nuumbers making me think its been forever.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Weren't his cf% like always in the early 40's? Or am i just remembering it wrong now that it is just recent nuumbers making me think its been forever.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

(Above 50% in every season until 2016-2017)

 

[Barrie22]

Marc-Edouard Vlasic - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

(Above 50% in every season until 2016-2017)

Ok so just misrembering it.

 

[Pistol Pete]

31 Thoughts: Pressure mounting on the Toronto Maple Leafs - Sportsnet.ca

“1. With Artem Anisimov and Colin White down to injury, Ottawa is trying hard to add a forward.”

DW should offer up Melker. DW has a great report with GMPD. Sharks need to clear some cap space. The Sens have the cap space and need some warm bodies. Not to mention, they probably have a surplus of Karlsson promotional materials and merchandise.

 

[themelkman]

31 Thoughts: Pressure mounting on the Toronto Maple Leafs - Sportsnet.ca

“1. With Artem Anisimov and Colin White down to injury, Ottawa is trying hard to add a forward.”

DW should offer up Melker. DW has a great report with GMPD. Sharks need to clear some cap space. The Sens have the cap space and need some warm bodies. Not to mention, they probably have a surplus of Karlsson promotional materials and merchandise.

I actually was thinking it’s not a bad idea with all the depth Forwards and lack of cap space we have, but then I remembered it’s milkman and he won’t be moving

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Weren't his cf% like always in the early 40's? Or am i just remembering it wrong now that it is just recent nuumbers making me think its been forever.

i know JTR posted the stats but one of Vlasics old selling points was how he faced top competition every night and still had good advanced stats. then he dropped off a cliff

 

[Beethovens 10th]

i know JTR posted the stats but one of Vlasics old selling points was how he faced top competition every night and still had good advanced stats. then he dropped off a cliff

Maybe Vlasic didn’t drop off a cliff, didn’t change, but rather, the way the top comp plays changed and he couldn’t adapt...?

Vlasic = Hannan v 2.0.1b

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

God why is vlasic so hard to play with? Starting to make me think that all these years of his horrible possession stats were never actually to do with his deployment/partners. Its just that he really was never actually as good as we thought he was.

If you are able to make possesion jedis in karlsson and burns look mediocre its really not a good thing. Especially when you have dillon who can barely defend against a pylon making them look even more jedi then they normally do.

He was spectacular with elite defensemen for team Canada. I doubt the people involved with picking those teams could all be wrong.

 

[DG93]

I’ve been avoiding doing this for a while because I knew it’d just depress me, but I finally went over to natural stat trick to check out the Sharks and here are the notable things:

1) How does Brent Burns have a 50% 5v5 score adjusted xGF% while Vlasic, his defense partner, has 40%??? Across the board Burns’ possession numbers are way higher than Vlasic’s. Like, to an unexplainable degree. It’s insane.

2) Evander Kane has been far and away our best forward.

3) Labanc is doing pretty solid at 5v5.

4) Hertl has a sub-5% on-ice shooting percentage at 5v5. The points will come.

5) Heed is genuinely awful.

6) Thornton looks bad, but I think Sorensen is sinking that line defensively. As a whole, that third line is giving up waaaay too many high quality scoring chances.

7) The best regulars at limiting high quality scoring chances are Burns, Hertl, Kane, and.... Ferraro.

8) The Marleau-Couture-Meier line is riding percentages (we all guessed that), but Couture is yet again having a trash possession year. Even Meier isn’t doing enough to mitigate that.

yep, that all pretty much checks out via the eye test imo. Burns has been good while Vlasic has been struggling, 9-48-62 looks good and Hertl has been doing a lot of good stuff even though he isn't scoring, 28-39-12 doesn't look great at all after the initial honeymoon, Ferraro has been great, and Heed and the 3rd line (Jumbo struggling and playing a lot with 4th liners in 23/20/68) have been major ass.

 

[themelkman]

yep, that all pretty much checks out via the eye test imo. Burns has been good while Vlasic has been struggling, 9-48-62 looks good and Hertl has been doing a lot of good stuff even though he isn't scoring, 28-39-12 doesn't look great at all after the initial honeymoon, Ferraro has been great, and Heed and the 3rd line (Jumbo struggling and playing a lot with 4th liners in 23/20/68) have been major ass.

Its weird because Gambrell is doing good hes getting the better wings on the fourth line while Jumbos third is pretty much a fourth

 

[DG93]

Its weird because Gambrell is doing good hes getting the better wings on the fourth line while Jumbos third is pretty much a fourth

23-7-20/68 is fine as a 4th line. It's when any of them move up into the top-9 that we have a big issue.

 

[one2gamble]

Its weird because Gambrell is doing good hes getting the better wings on the fourth line while Jumbos third is pretty much a fourth

Gamby has 1 more game like he's been playing and I think I'd consider his line the 3rd. He gets caught sometimes buts he's trending up. Maybe we were wrong about him

Jumbo needs to play with more energy

 

[DG93]

Gamby has 1 more game like he's been playing and I think I'd consider his line the 3rd. He gets caught sometimes buts he's trending up. Maybe we were wrong about him

Jumbo needs to play with more energy

Jumbo needs some actual skill on his line and not a bunch of grinders and plugs.

 

[one2gamble]

Jumbo needs some actual skill on his line and not a bunch of grinders and plugs.

Plugs aren't causing his lazy passes and excessive coasting

 

[DG93]

Plugs aren't causing his lazy passes and excessive coasting

True, but expecting him to carry a line on his own is also unreasonable.

 

[Lebanezer]

Plugs aren't causing his lazy passes and excessive coasting

That would be age. He can’t be depended on to be the best player on his line anymore.

 

[one2gamble]

That would be age. He can’t be depended on to be the best player on his line anymore.

Is anyone expecting him to be?

 

[Shark Finn]

Is anyone expecting him to be?

PDB?

 

[Lebanezer]

Is anyone expecting him to be?

PDB?

This.

 

[LA Shark]

Jumbo's line had some great shifts vs Buffalo when he had Sorenson and Labanc with him. He cant carry a line anymore, but if he has talent on the line, I still think they can feast vs lower comp like last year. But when he has Goodrow/Karlsson with him and a rookie, they're going to get caved in.