Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 8

[Pinkfloyd]

Is anyone expecting him to be?

If the coach is putting guys like Goodrow and Karlsson on his wings, I would say the coach is expecting him to be. lol

 

[Barrie22]

Is anyone expecting him to be?

I would say the management/coaching staff are with the shit he has had so far this season in terms of linemates.

 

[Pistol Pete]

I thought Thornton’s best shift was on Karlsson’s tying goal with Marleau and Labanc flanking him. Ideally, that’s what the 3rd line should be.

 

[tiburon12]

I think it’s time we start to consider that Dillon isn’t all that bad. This is the second year in a row he’s posted some pretty solid metrics. He hasn’t looked great at all times, but it’s not like anybody else on the defense has, and Dillon has posted some of the strongest results for two years running. He was horrible in the playoffs but maybe that was more of a blip on the radar.

Dillon has been great for a few years now, ever since the Cup run. Great in his role as a bottom pairing D. I know a few always look to dangle him as trade bait to clear cap space, but he has consistently been a solid defender that rarely makes mistakes with the puck (fully acknowledging that recently his move has been "give it to EK65"). He plays hard every night and is reliable for a solid effort each game. Not much else you can ask for in his role.

Metrics aside, i rarely watch games and think "Dillon is suffering / killing us"

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dillon has been great for a few years now, ever since the Cup run. Great in his role as a bottom pairing D. I know a few always look to dangle him as trade bait to clear cap space, but he has consistently been a solid defender that rarely makes mistakes with the puck (fully acknowledging that recently his move has been "give it to EK65"). He plays hard every night and is reliable for a solid effort each game. Not much else you can ask for in his role.

Metrics aside, i rarely watch games and think "Dillon is suffering / killing us"

I'm sorry but positive possession metrics doesn't make him a solid defender. He is not. He is a liability defensively and playing over his head when playing with Karlsson. I'd rather have Ferraro on Karlsson's side than Dillon.

 

[NWSharkie]

31 Thoughts: Pressure mounting on the Toronto Maple Leafs - Sportsnet.ca

“1. With Artem Anisimov and Colin White down to injury, Ottawa is trying hard to add a forward.”

DW should offer up Melker. DW has a great report with GMPD. Sharks need to clear some cap space. The Sens have the cap space and need some warm bodies. Not to mention, they probably have a surplus of Karlsson promotional materials and merchandise.

I want this to happen so bad, just for the "SJ TRADES KARLSSON TO OTT" clickbait headlines

 

[NWSharkie]

Maybe Vlasic didn’t drop off a cliff, didn’t change, but rather, the way the top comp plays changed and he couldn’t adapt...?

Vlasic = Hannan v 2.0.1b

I think it's more that the way the whole league plays changed pretty significantly after the Pens won the cup playing their uptempo game. Vlasic was the perfect defenseman for a containment-type system where you play your angles and force your guy into traffic where he's outnumbered. He's offensively effective when the play is "hold the blueline and pass back to the half-wall or high slot." And that system got exposed pretty badly against Pittsburgh.

Now that the Sharks' system involves forwards flying the zone at the drop of a hat, he's defending more breakaways than ever, and there's less forward support to funnel guys into. His breakout passes have to be longer and riskier. Under DeBoer's system, his only options at the point are "go to the other point, take a shot, or dump it deep." He looked better in the playoffs last year because the game slowed down and got more conservative, both for the Sharks and their opponents.

Vlasic-Braun as a shutdown pair was great to watch because as in the words of Mitch Hedberg, "no matter how good you are at tennis, you'll never be as good as a wall." They weren't flashy gamebreakers like a Burns or Karlsson, and they didn't make spectacular plays to turn the rush the other way. They just took whatever you had and put it out to the corners or the half-wall for a winger to retrieve. Now in this league, or at least with the Sharks' system/forward group, if you do that the wingers aren't there and aren't winning those battles. You're pinned in your end and bleeding shots against. At the offensive end, it's one shot from the point, a pinball rebound, and you're defending again. I feel like Vlasic is kind of caught in the middle where he doesn't have the skill set to make plays with his feet or a long breakout pass like Burns or Karlsson, but he's been good enough through his career that he doesn't feel an instinct to immediately pass to the "good" defenseman on his pairing like Simek or Dillon would.

 

[Alaskanice]

I think it's more that the way the whole league plays changed pretty significantly after the Pens won the cup playing their uptempo game. Vlasic was the perfect defenseman for a containment-type system where you play your angles and force your guy into traffic where he's outnumbered. He's offensively effective when the play is "hold the blueline and pass back to the half-wall or high slot." And that system got exposed pretty badly against Pittsburgh.

Now that the Sharks' system involves forwards flying the zone at the drop of a hat, he's defending more breakaways than ever, and there's less forward support to funnel guys into. His breakout passes have to be longer and riskier. Under DeBoer's system, his only options at the point are "go to the other point, take a shot, or dump it deep." He looked better in the playoffs last year because the game slowed down and got more conservative, both for the Sharks and their opponents.

Vlasic-Braun as a shutdown pair was great to watch because as in the words of Mitch Hedberg, "no matter how good you are at tennis, you'll never be as good as a wall." They weren't flashy gamebreakers like a Burns or Karlsson, and they didn't make spectacular plays to turn the rush the other way. They just took whatever you had and put it out to the corners or the half-wall for a winger to retrieve. Now in this league, or at least with the Sharks' system/forward group, if you do that the wingers aren't there and aren't winning those battles. You're pinned in your end and bleeding shots against. At the offensive end, it's one shot from the point, a pinball rebound, and you're defending again. I feel like Vlasic is kind of caught in the middle where he doesn't have the skill set to make plays with his feet or a long breakout pass like Burns or Karlsson, but he's been good enough through his career that he doesn't feel an instinct to immediately pass to the "good" defenseman on his pairing like Simek or Dillon would.

This has been my unsaid point all along. The game has changed and Vlasic is slow to catch up. Maybe he’s stubborn.

 

[Erep]

I still think people are over reacting like mad.

Since signing Marleau, the team is 3-1-1 with the two losses by 1 goal each to the hottest team in the league. It would have been nice to go on an absolute tear, and leave the 0-4 start in the dust, but a 3-1-1 pace is absolutely fine. (Simek is also still out and who knows how that will change the defense, but I expect it will help.)

 

[Painful Quandary]

I still think people are over reacting like mad.

Since signing Marleau, the team is 3-1-1 with the two losses by 1 goal each to the hottest team in the league. It would have been nice to go on an absolute tear, and leave the 0-4 start in the dust, but a 3-1-1 pace is absolutely fine. (Simek is also still out and who knows how that will change the defense, but I expect it will help.)

Some of use are just frustrated. I am aware that the Sharks are starting the year with a really bad schedule, playing bogey teams like Vegas and Buffalo twice in short order. However, it is also hard to ignore the 0-4 start knowing it is a hole to be dug out of. If the 3-1-1 pace continues for a while, that will go a long way to easing that anxiety, but that of course looks like a big "if" at the moment.

I agree getting Simek back should help, however, it depends on how well he recovers. He could also end up like Ryan, starting strong, but then fading. These events should be acknowledged as possibilities. The other aspect of that is the "if everybody is healthy, the team should be fine," that doesn't sit that well with me. Every playoffs, except the Cup finals, the Sharks either enter injured or get injured quickly. If the team can't handle missing someone like Simek, or one in the top-6, that's a problem.

 

[hohosaregood]

Some of use are just frustrated. I am aware that the Sharks are starting the year with a really bad schedule, playing bogey teams like Vegas and Buffalo twice in short order. However, it is also hard to ignore the 0-4 start knowing it is a hole to be dug out of. If the 3-1-1 pace continues for a while, that will go a long way to easing that anxiety, but that of course looks like a big "if" at the moment.

I agree getting Simek back should help, however, it depends on how well he recovers. He could also end up like Ryan, starting strong, but then fading. These events should be acknowledged as possibilities. The other aspect of that is the "if everybody is healthy, the team should be fine," that doesn't sit that well with me. Every playoffs, except the Cup finals, the Sharks either enter injured or get injured quickly. If the team can't handle missing someone like Simek, or one in the top-6, that's a problem.

I know the first couple of games really tanked our underlying numbers too but they're pretty underwhelming right now regardless of the record and I think that's a concern for a lot of us as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I know the first couple of games really tanked our underlying numbers too but they're pretty underwhelming right now regardless of the record and I think that's a concern for a lot of us as well.

Right. Even if you cherry pick the last 5 games and just pretend the first 4 didn’t happen, which really doesn’t make any sense, the team’s 5-on-5 score-adjusted xGF% is 46.36% which is terrible.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Looks like DW dumped Braun at a good time.
He's been pretty sheltered on Zone starts (57.8% O zone) and -3.5 corsi rel and a -7.3 Fenwick relationship while sporting a -5 in 7 games.

 

[Mattb124]

Dillon has been great for a few years now, ever since the Cup run. Great in his role as a bottom pairing D. I know a few always look to dangle him as trade bait to clear cap space, but he has consistently been a solid defender that rarely makes mistakes with the puck (fully acknowledging that recently his move has been "give it to EK65"). He plays hard every night and is reliable for a solid effort each game. Not much else you can ask for in his role.

Metrics aside, i rarely watch games and think "Dillon is suffering / killing us"

I know +- is not a favored stat, but team leading +19 last regular season and team leading -8 in last year's playoffs is not a good look for him.

 

[tiburon12]

I'm sorry but positive possession metrics doesn't make him a solid defender. He is not. He is a liability defensively and playing over his head when playing with Karlsson. I'd rather have Ferraro on Karlsson's side than Dillon.

I don't even know what his possession metrics are, i'm just pointing out that for a bottom pairing D, you could do, and the sharks have done, a lot worse than Dillon.

Maybe he is playing over his head with Karlsson, but his defensive play is not sinking the team by any means. He's not the one (Vlasic) making ill-timed pinches that lead to odd-man rushes or (Burns) sending terrible passes up ice for icings or (Karlsson) being soft in the corners when defending a forecheck.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't even know what his possession metrics are, i'm just pointing out that for a bottom pairing D, you could do, and the sharks have done, a lot worse than Dillon.

Maybe he is playing over his head with Karlsson, but his defensive play is not sinking the team by any means. He's not the one (Vlasic) making ill-timed pinches that lead to odd-man rushes or (Burns) sending terrible passes up ice for icings or (Karlsson) being soft in the corners when defending a forecheck.

Yes, Dillon does actually make ill-timed pinches. One of the goals against tonight was due to a Dillon ill-timed pinch. They're both guilty of that on a regular basis. And just because they can and have done worse isn't a good case for him. Dillon is a solid 3rd pairing guy but the Sharks have enough of that when Simek is healthy to do without him and since he's the only one that has a contract that is really moveable at this stage, he should be the odd-man out and the only way he stays is if Simek doesn't return to form and/or someone else goes down with injury.

 

[tiburon12]

Yes, Dillon does actually make ill-timed pinches. One of the goals against tonight was due to a Dillon ill-timed pinch. They're both guilty of that on a regular basis. And just because they can and have done worse isn't a good case for him. Dillon is a solid 3rd pairing guy but the Sharks have enough of that when Simek is healthy to do without him and since he's the only one that has a contract that is really moveable at this stage, he should be the odd-man out and the only way he stays is if Simek doesn't return to form and/or someone else goes down with injury.

That was not an ill timed pinch by any stretch. Dillon was easily first person to that puck, he just happened to chip it off a defender's stick by pure bad luck. If you want to use one (weak) example to blanket over the rest of his positives, go for it.

Twice now i've said he is a solid bottom pairing guy and you've tried to argue against that, only to repeat it in this post. If you think Heed or Prout or Carrick, regardless of handedness, are better options than Dillon, idk what to tell you. Trading Dillon would flat out be a mistake

 

[Alaskanice]

That was not an ill timed pinch by any stretch. Dillon was easily first person to that puck, he just happened to chip it off a defender's stick by pure bad luck. If you want to use one (weak) example to blanket over the rest of his positives, go for it.

Twice now i've said he is a solid bottom pairing guy and you've tried to argue against that, only to repeat it in this post. If you think Heed or Prout or Carrick, regardless of handedness, are better options than Dillon, idk what to tell you. Trading Dillon would flat out be a mistake

I agree that trading him now would be a mistake, unless it’s a great deal. If Ferraro continues to shine, maybe trading Dillon at the TDL will transpire.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That was not an ill timed pinch by any stretch. Dillon was easily first person to that puck, he just happened to chip it off a defender's stick by pure bad luck. If you want to use one (weak) example to blanket over the rest of his positives, go for it.

Twice now i've said he is a solid bottom pairing guy and you've tried to argue against that, only to repeat it in this post. If you think Heed or Prout or Carrick, regardless of handedness, are better options than Dillon, idk what to tell you. Trading Dillon would flat out be a mistake

What made it an ill-timed pinch is his decision to stay there after that and take a half-hearted swipe at the puck. But that's not some one off. He's done bad pinches regularly like they all have because that's just part of what they're coached to do. Just because Dillon is better than Prout and Heed doesn't mean that he's the best person for that spot in the lineup either nor does it make it cost effective to keep him. In both cases, he is not the guy. I wouldn't put him or anybody else in the lineup on their off side. I think the best way to go about it for the team is to put Vlasic-Heed as the 3rd pairing because Vlasic is still going to be here no matter how much people wish he would be dealt, he's still better than Dillon when they're playing on average, and Heed better compliments Vlasic than anyone in that spot is going to while also sheltering Vlasic until he gets his stuff together. And on the cost effective side, they need to address their depth up front and Dillon is the only moveable contract in a place where they can cover what he brings.

 

[tiburon12]

What made it an ill-timed pinch is his decision to stay there after that and take a half-hearted swipe at the puck. But that's not some one off. He's done bad pinches regularly like they all have because that's just part of what they're coached to do. Just because Dillon is better than Prout and Heed doesn't mean that he's the best person for that spot in the lineup either nor does it make it cost effective to keep him. In both cases, he is not the guy. I wouldn't put him or anybody else in the lineup on their off side. I think the best way to go about it for the team is to put Vlasic-Heed as the 3rd pairing because Vlasic is still going to be here no matter how much people wish he would be dealt, he's still better than Dillon when they're playing on average, and Heed better compliments Vlasic than anyone in that spot is going to while also sheltering Vlasic until he gets his stuff together. And on the cost effective side, they need to address their depth up front and Dillon is the only moveable contract in a place where they can cover what he brings.

His decision to stay in the play instead of retreat ≠ ill-timed pinch. That's a semantic arguement but still not an ill-timed pinch. If he doesn't go to that puck (which again he was easily the first guy to), MTL has an easy 4-3 with speed (Jumbo was behind the net and Labanc was tangled with Price). The timing wasn't the problem at all, though because the defender's stick happened to get a piece of the puck, Dillon was forced to commit to his play. Hertl should have stayed with Cousins and covered for Dillon if anything.

I'm no PDB, but Heed has looked decidedly awful. Mr. 3-minutes-a-night is not the guy you want come playoffs. He's far too timid and has no confidence. Yes, having someone play their off side is not ideal, but Dillon on his off side is infinitely better than Heed playing at all. If they had a reasonable, more cost-effective replacement for Dillon, I could stomach him getting moved for a top-6 piece, which i agree fully the team needs. And i'll agree that his contract is moveable, but in no way can the org cover what he brings without leaving a glaring hole for #6 D.

 

[Jargon]

I think the Sharks have looked good for long stretches in the last few games. Not perfect. Still wish either LaBanc was consistent game to game or one of the rookies took off, but I’ve been much happier with this team lately.

Erik Karlsson has started playing as advertised. He had a crazy game today (that one play where, standing still, he weaved the puck through two players was... confusing to my eyeballs.). He’s SO good and I feel like he’s finally become confident and healthy enough to be himself here. That’s huge for this team, obviously.

In a perfect world, we get another Top 6, and a rookie takes off so it’s:

Meier - Couture - Top 6
Kane - Hertl - Labanc/Rookie
Marleau - Joe - Labanc/Rookie
Sorenson - Gambrell - Goodrow
Melker (likely traded away to make room for top 6)

But I’m still looking for that rookie. Would like to see Chek/Chlem get a chance.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I think the Sharks have looked good for long stretches in the last few games. Not perfect. Still wish either LaBanc was consistent game to game or one of the rookies took off, but I’ve been much happier with this team lately.

Erik Karlsson has started playing as advertised. He had a crazy game today (that one play where, standing still, he weaved the puck through two players was... confusing to my eyeballs.). He’s SO good and I feel like he’s finally become confident and healthy enough to be himself here. That’s huge for this team, obviously.

In a perfect world, we get another Top 6, and a rookie takes off so it’s:

Meier - Couture - Top 6
Kane - Hertl - Labanc/Rookie
Marleau - Joe - Labanc/Rookie
Sorenson - Gambrell - Goodrow
Melker (likely traded away to make room for top 6)

But I’m still looking for that rookie. Would like to see Chek/Chlem get a chance.

I think Dillon goes before Milker. I think PDB legit likes him too much to give him up unless he has to.

Team is 4-1-1 in the last 6 though right? If they keep this up they'll be just fine.

 

[OrrNumber4]

But I’m still looking for that rookie. Would like to see Chek/Chlem get a chance.

They had their chance, and they blew it. The bar to make the roster hadn't been this low in decades, and yet both players blew it.

Even now, the pressure is on them to have a great showing in the AHL. As of right now, a handful of other players are outperforming them, and one of them (Gregor), rightfully got the most recent callup.

So far, Gregor's been decent but hasn't moved the needle. I'm waiting for the forward version of Ferraro, someone who comes along and just proves he belongs in the NHL.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Also yeah for all his flaws, taking out Labanc’s just horrible first four games (and basically the entire team’s), he’s got 5 points in 6 games, with 2 game winners and is only -2. So he’s not horrible, but can just be so dumb sometimes it’s very noticeable. But then he will make a pretty pass or snipe a gorgeous goal and it’s like, meh he’s alright I guess

 

[Pinkfloyd]

His decision to stay in the play instead of retreat ≠ ill-timed pinch. That's a semantic arguement but still not an ill-timed pinch. If he doesn't go to that puck (which again he was easily the first guy to), MTL has an easy 4-3 with speed (Jumbo was behind the net and Labanc was tangled with Price). The timing wasn't the problem at all, though because the defender's stick happened to get a piece of the puck, Dillon was forced to commit to his play. Hertl should have stayed with Cousins and covered for Dillon if anything.

I'm no PDB, but Heed has looked decidedly awful. Mr. 3-minutes-a-night is not the guy you want come playoffs. He's far too timid and has no confidence. Yes, having someone play their off side is not ideal, but Dillon on his off side is infinitely better than Heed playing at all. If they had a reasonable, more cost-effective replacement for Dillon, I could stomach him getting moved for a top-6 piece, which i agree fully the team needs. And i'll agree that his contract is moveable, but in no way can the org cover what he brings without leaving a glaring hole for #6 D.

How long you stay in on a pinch is as important as being first to a puck on a pinch when you're a d-man. You're right that it's semantics because at the end of the day it is still a critical defensive error on his part which is something Dillon does plenty of. An easy 4-3 with speed is still preferable to what Dillon eventually gave up due to his decision. And no, Hertl shouldn't have stayed with Cousins. Dillon should've bailed immediately after his initial play on the puck when he had players to help on the puck battle. He should've immediately moved to defensive side position.

As for Heed, he has looked awful and they should look to upgrade that spot if possible but Vlasic-Heed was good as a 3rd pairing at evens last season and if we're looking to get Vlasic going, that's probably the best way this team can do it. Vlasic with anyone that is also an LD on the right side is likely to yield worse results overall. Dillon is NOT a filler of a hole on the right side of the 3rd pairing. I'm sorry but he's not. He has played spot shifts on the right side and looked terrible doing so like most in his position would.