The final weekend of the season has arrived.
As expected, but somewhat anti-climatic, the UNB/ACD game was for first place, but I think most people thought the two teams would be closer in points versus the 7point lead UNB had at the time.
This weekend has lots of stories and playoff ramifications for spots 3 to 6 though.
SMU 3rd (32 pts)
- 2pts in front of UdeM & 5pts in front of St.FX.
- can't get to 2nd but can't finish worse than 4th
- SMU has the tie-breaker over Moncton (4-1)
- play host to St.FX and @ DAL
(should win both games and end with 36 pts - remain 3rd)
(a win over DAL is all they need)
Moncton 4th (30 pts)
- 2pts behind SMU and 3pts in front of St.FX
- could get to 3rd, but could also drop to 5th
- Moncton has the tie-breaker over St.FX, but no tie-breaker vs SMU
- play @ UPEI and host UNB
(should win over UPEI and end with 32 pts - remain 4th)
(need 3 of 4 points to overtake SMU, but that means taking a point from UNB. They only have 3 pts vs UNB over the past 5 seasons; 1-21-0-1 & SMU has to lose to DAL)
St. FX 5th (27 pts)
- 3pts behind Moncton and 2pts in front of UPEI
- could get to 4th, but could also drop to 6th
- StFX has no tie-breakers
- play host to SMU and @ ACD
(likely lose both and remain in 5th with 27 pts)
(need 4 of 4 pts vs #3 and #2 and Moncton to go 0-2 - that maybe a stretch)
UPEI 6th (25 pts)
- 2pts behind StFX
- could get to 5th or remain 6th
- UPEI has the tie-breaker over StFX
- play host to Moncton then @ UNB
(likely lose both and remain in 6th with 25 pts)
(needs to win on Wednesday and StFX to go 0-2 to move into 5th)
- Wednesday Night -
- A UPEI win means they are tied with StFX
or
- A Moncton win means they are tied with SMU
so, someone's going to be tied and if it's an OT Win, the loser is 1pt closer to the guy in front of them - nuts. Tough for either UPEI or Moncton to get more than 2pts this weekend with their other opponent being UNB.
I know there can be upsets, but I can't see a path where this isn't UNB/ACD in the finals and SMU vs someone for the host spot. That maybe the real story here - the best of 3 for 'host' status (and to meet Alberta in game 1 - yupieeee).