Speculation: 2019-20 Trade Speculation and Discussion

[JesusNPucks]

Even though people don’t want to admit it Cogliano was brought in partly to help in the room. If they knew that Pavelski would be here this year I don’t think the Cogliano trade happens. I think Nill will be looking to move him in the offseason.

Interesting thought. I’d be for it.

 

[BigG44]

You could trade Cogliano for sure, but I think more than likely you're taking a bad contract. Nill has shown a willingness to trade picks to add pieces, but he's not shown much appetite for trading assets to shed salary. If something like that Gonchar for Moen trade materialized, I think he would potentially do that if the other play filled a need.

Nill has publicly talked about the downside of retained trades not giving you flexibility. I think it would be silly to not retain, and I could see him do that despite his stated reluctance in the past. All of that said, I have a hard time seeing Nill making a move like that when financially it does very, very little to help the team.

If you retain 50% of Cogliano's salary, replacing him with one of the younger guys is going to push the total cost to about $2.5 million or just $750K in savings. If you retain less than 50%, Cogliano becomes much less attractive. More teams have become hip to the fact that in the cap world is usually better to go with younger and cheaper. I could see a team biting at 50% retained, but I think the less you retain, the harder it will be to find a partner that doesn't consider it a salary dump.

The disconnect I think so far in this conversation is fan perception of Cogliano vs. team perception. I don't think any member of the front office or coaching staff wants to see Cogliano go. I think the only reason they would move him is a financial one. That's why I previously said I have a hard time seeing Cogliano leave if Jim Nill remains GM, but I would personally look at him as a guy that should go to save money.

 

[BigG44]

Miro isn't getting higher than 8 without substantially more offensive output.
But we have 33mil in space for the year his extension kicks in (based on 81.5) buying out Cogs wouldn't hamper the team that year as much as letting him play the previous year would.

Extensions for Hintz and Gurianov and even Faksa would cut into that 33mil but even at overpaid amounts for all 3 there is substantial money available to fill out the remaining spots for a year until radulov, and pavelskis contracts fall off. Not to mention whoever gets claimed in expansion and still pay Miro, and of course cap growth even if small over the next couple of seasons too.

I'm not to worried about the cap in 2021-22 either. I agree with you about the expansion draft could provide potential relief, and the cap isn't set up that poorly for that season even with looming contracts to Hintz, Gurianov, and Faksa. Even if Dallas gave all 3 long term deals, I think you're only talking about $13 to $15 million in cap space. All other scenarios will result in even less money on the cap (bridge deals to Hintz and/or Gurianov, Faksa traded, Faksa signs 1 year deal to test UFA, etc.).

Bridge deals to Hintz and Gurianov have an elevated chance of making the cap a little sticky in 2022-23, but as you said, Radulov and Pavalski will be coming off the books at the same time. This is also decision time for Klingberg as well though so it's still at least a moderate concern to monitor. I think it's not likely ... I really like Hintz and Gurianov, but I'm not expecting them to just blow up ... however they could make things complicated if the bet on themselves with bridge deals and turn into top offensive threats. I think that is why Sean Shapiro is saying that the best move may be to gamble now and try and get long term deals done, and I think I agree with him. I don't think it will blow up in your face, but I also wouldn't just expect either contract to be an overwhelming success like Klingberg's contract.

 

[YP44]

King's fan coming in piece. Just wondering what the ask would be for Honka and if he is even available.

Thinking LA maybe able to fill a need for Dallas's post season run and in return help their D-pool for next year.

 

[serp]

King's fan coming in piece. Just wondering what the ask would be for Honka and if he is even available.

Thinking LA maybe able to fill a need for Dallas's post season run and in return help their D-pool for next year.

Pretty sure he is available and Dallas definitely wants picks back. 3rd or better was the rumor . How that looks now ? No idea. They don't want any contracts back though IRC .

 

[YP44]

Pretty sure he is available and Dallas definitely wants picks back. 3rd or better was the rumor . How that looks now ? No idea. They don't want any contracts back though IRC .

gotcha, not good trading partners given where LA is at as they should not want to deal picks.

Thanks for the reply

 

[M88K]

Pretty sure he is available and Dallas definitely wants picks back. 3rd or better was the rumor . How that looks now ? No idea. They don't want any contracts back though IRC .

Well i'd assume it depends overall.

If they wanted to add say Toffoli for the Playoff run i'm sure they could work something out around Honka and other prospects/Picks in exchange for Toffoli

ultimately it would come down to what is being returned a similar aged prospect, they will likely pass on in favor of a pick, to add to the team though, probably fine with a contract coming back

 

[serp]

Well i'd assume it depends overall.

If they wanted to add say Toffoli for the Playoff run i'm sure they could work something out around Honka and other prospects/Picks in exchange for Toffoli

ultimately it would come down to what is being returned a similar aged prospect, they will likely pass on in favor of a pick, to add to the team though, probably fine with a contract coming back

Sure as part of some other deal contracts could be involved. Just for Honka though i doubt the Stars want someone else back who isn't looking too hot. Just take a pick since Stars don't have that many right now.

 

[BigG44]

I actually agree with M88K again this time about Honka. They lack assets, especially picks, and he represents a reasonable piece for a middling deadline add or a part of a package for something better.

Some have already said this that Dallas could probably survive not making a deal, and based on their draft pick situation it might be the better move. That said, one of the psychological advantages of adding at the TDL is just a vote of confidence from the front office. Nill has talked about it before. I'm not saying that sitting on his hands caused the massive collapse a couple years ago. It didn't, but it is interesting that they both occurred the same year.

My guess is something minor on the 4th line happens, but I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't make a single move. Sticking with LA just for the sake of this discussion, Trevor Lewis makes some sense if you consider the type of players Jim Nill pursues. I think he's also probably a guy that would only get a mid round pick at the TDL, and that puts Honka right in the wheelhouse.

Lewis wouldn't by my first choice. There are an abundance of guys like that this deadline, and I would expect you could do a 1 for 1 with many teams for that type of player with Honka. Sitting around magically waiting for an assets value to rebound hasn't really ever panned out for Nill in the past despite the fact he talks about asset management frequently. I would give him an A+ for asset management so far with Honka honestly though. Personally, I think Honka got screwed by his agent in this situation. Not signing that QO was shortsighted by the agent. Otherwise, Honka would already be gone, either in a trade for a lesser pick than Nill wanted or through waivers. That said, the screw up, again IMO, by the agent/player gives Nill a chance to get some value back even if it is TDL rental.

I could be wrong here, but I don't think he's ever getting a 3rd, but I think he could get the equivalent type player as a rental. I could be totally off, but I'd wager if Honka is still on the team in March, he'll either eventually get traded for a 5th or lower OR he'll just end up walking as an UFA when he turns 27. It just seems pretty unlikely that Honka is going to improve his actual value much in Europe. Oleksiak was still in the NHL and actually occasionally playing when he got a 4th.

 

[BigG44]

Just realized saying Nill get's an A+ for asset management is misleading and wrong. I only mean since the start of the season. Like many of Dallas' young D, Honka's management was pretty much trash. I just mean that once the agent/player chose to not sign the QO, I think he made the best possible decision to stick to his guns and not undersell right away. He could have rushed at he beginning of the year or the December 1st deadline. He salvaged a bad situation, but he can't continue to be patient and pretend that the asset's value is going to dramatically improve. Teams are going to be in a position to lose an asset for nothing or gamble on an actual player, and if he plays his cards well, I don't think you'll get better value than at the TDL.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

He couldn't get a third for Honka, even waiting until a few teams (Jets?) had injuries, etc. in November. A 4th is probably tops (and a Kings 4th is almost a third) and in reality, he is stuck, and will be lucky to get a fifth. But, we get lucky in the 5th, so maybe that is what he should shoot for.

 

[JesusNPucks]

He couldn't get a third for Honka, even waiting until a few teams (Jets?) had injuries, etc. in November. A 4th is probably tops (and a Kings 4th is almost a third) and in reality, he is stuck, and will be lucky to get a fifth. But, we get lucky in the 5th, so maybe that is what he should shoot for.

I'd be good with that, too. I wonder if he can do a conditional that is performance-based, which makes it a win-win for both teams. Are those types of conditions (i.e. not just games-played based) possible in the NHL trades?

 

[BigG44]

I have seen conditions in a trade to elevate a pick for making the playoffs, % of games played in the playoffs, and number of games played during the season (see Fedun to Dallas). I can't recall one based on production, but I know you can do that in contracts. I'd say it's at lease possible, but games played is more likely. In that situation, you'd be acquiring a conditional pick in 2021. Most of the time those only elevate a pick slightly, but you could set two thresholds potentially. Something like a 5th round pick that turns into a 4th for 30 games and a 3rd if he plays 60 games.

My guess would be a 5th that could become a 4th is much more realistic than a 3rd, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. I would not have a problem with a conditional pick at all for 2021, but this is just my personal guess, I think Nill moves him at the TDL for an actual player.

You kind of always seem to need to have two conversations: what do you want personally and what seems like a Jim Nill/Dallas Stars type move. I just think Nill will use the logic that if a 3rd Round pick = Ben Lovejoy then Honka for a TDL rental will equal a 3rd round pick. In fact, if Honka is traded, I think I'd lay a bet that Nill in someway mentions the level of draft pick it would take to acquire Player A and then he would compare Honka to that level of pick.

The two teams that seem to be mentioned most with Honka in the past several months were Montreal and Carolina. Carolina would be a candidate for a conditional pick this summer I would think, and Montreal might be a TDL option.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Neal for Lucic had production based conditions. Something like an extra 3rd round pick if Neal scored above X number of goals and Lucic scored less than Y number of goals.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Hadn't thought of it that way, but yes, Honka basically is equivalent to giving a futures asset (i.e., pick or prospect) to a non playoff team for a rental. Certainly gives that team a more NHL ready asset, hastening their rebuild.

Saves us a precious draft pick, as well.

I don't see Nill doing anything. No need to improve our third and fourth lines. We have defensive depth. Only real need is a scorer who is scoring (we have several who aren't producing at adequate rates) and unless the trade market is really weak, we don't have the capital to do a deal like this, at least that I can see.

Basically, our playoff plan is to build a heavy team likely to succeed, (i.e., play like the Blues) and hope for the best. By all accounts, part 1 has been done. Our hope for the best will be a better plan if Seguin, Benn, Hintz, Pavs and Perry start scoring streaks and go into the playoffs hot.

 

[LT]

Friedman mentioned in his 31 thoughts that he could see us pursuing a playmaking forward.

He didn’t mention any names and he also did acknowledge that we’re already built for the playoff grind and don’t have a ton of assets to give away.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

What is possible, but would be unusual and weird, is the Stars trading a depth forward or D at the TDL for a pick, even though in the middle of the playoff hunt. We could get by without Janmark, a UFA, for instance, with Kiviranta, etc. giving us enough forward bodies. And, we get back the second round pick we don't have next year in a strong draft. Not sure I have ever seen that happen.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

What is possible, but would be unusual and weird, is the Stars trading a depth forward or D at the TDL for a pick, even though in the middle of the playoff hunt. We could get by without Janmark, a UFA, for instance, with Kiviranta, etc. giving us enough forward bodies. And, we get back the second round pick we don't have next year in a strong draft. Not sure I have ever seen that happen.

2013 Sharks were a pretty prolific example. They got a bunch of picks back for selling off Douglas Murray and Ryane Clowe despite being in playoff position and eventually making it. Incredible job by the Sharks GM that year.

 

[BigG44]

Neal for Lucic had production based conditions. Something like an extra 3rd round pick if Neal scored above X number of goals and Lucic scored less than Y number of goals.

That's pretty cool. Thanks for mentioning it. I figured if it was legal in contracts it had to be legal in a trade. With Honka, at least from a Dallas POV, games make the most sense, but I could see the other team wanting a production threshold since he's supposed to be an offensive defender.

 

[BigG44]

What is possible, but would be unusual and weird, is the Stars trading a depth forward or D at the TDL for a pick, even though in the middle of the playoff hunt. We could get by without Janmark, a UFA, for instance, with Kiviranta, etc. giving us enough forward bodies. And, we get back the second round pick we don't have next year in a strong draft. Not sure I have ever seen that happen.

I'd argue there is another reason to trade Janmark, and I was thinking about it earlier today honestly. Glad you brought it up.

I agree that Dallas will have an incredibly difficult time doing something, but I think they probably need to figure out a way to get something done in terms of propping up the offense. Last year, it wasn't just Hintz turning it on, Zucc was a big part of the success they did have. To add though, someone has to come out. It's not going to be Benn, Seguin, Radulov, or Pavelski. It's not going to be anyone on the FCC line. Hintz and Gurianov, and more so Hintz recently, have had times of inconsistency, but they are more often than not important contributors most nights, and they're among your best candidates for improving the offense internally. Gurianov adds the additional benefit of being a lock for the 2nd PP unit. I just can't see justifying sitting him with his PP performance.

That only leaves Perry, Dickinson, and Janmark. Perry is already getting the bonus money, and I can't imagine him going anywhere. He got hot all of a sudden too at the right time on this road trip. I still think, today based on what we've seen overall, they should have moved on before the bonuses kicked in. That said, based on the last week at least, he's not coming out, he was always brought in for the playoffs further solidifying his spot, and I can admit that I hope he proves me wrong that they should have cut bait before he hit 40 games. I will gladly be wrong about that, and he at least started to go that direction the last 3 games. It's only 3 games though.

I may be wrong here, but I think Dickinson is a no brainer over Janmark. I'd personally say he's a no brainer over Perry for that matter. Janmark has been good. I like him. He's reliable, and the argument against removing him is his PK value. That said, he's never going to be the answer offensively, and if you're looking to add someone to this group of 12 to make the team overall better offensively, the obvious answer to come out is Janmark since it seems like Bones is sold on a shutdown line of Faksa, Comeau, and Cogliano.

The obvious argument against trading Janmark is depth. Nill loves depth, and Dallas frequently has guys out of the lineup. Financially, you could add a guy without shedding Janmark's salary, and removing Janmark does not make adding a guy easier financially. You also will not get any help on the overage bonus by trading him since the only way he's traded is if you actually were adding another guy. That guy will more than eat up his space, Dallas will still be using LTIR anyway, and you've gained nothing in terms of minimizing the overage bonus.

Ultimately, the reason I didn't bring this up was before you was that I just decided not trading him makes the most sense ... even in terms of asset management. The other 11 forwards + whoever you add are not going to play every remaining regular season or playoff game for Dallas. They'll need Janmark. I think you'd be significantly making the team worse for a mid round pick because he is much better all around (today at at least and in the next several months) than Dowling, Kiviranta, Caamano, Gardner, etc. Next season, with cap considerations and young guys getting to improve by playing, I think it would be reasonable to expect one or more of Kiviranta, Caamano, and Gardner to be better options than Janmark at whatever money he gets from his new team through free agency. Today though and these playoffs, Janmark is the guy you'd want among that group.

If Dallas does make a trade, I'd expect Janmark to be the guy to come out when everyone is healthy, but I can't see trading him. The only reason I felt differently about Perry was because he's not been a special teams contributor despite plenty of PP opportunities, and he doesn't bring that incredible, safe reliability that Janmark does. More importantly though, there was actual, relatively significant financial savings on next seasons cap which is already pretty precarious. Now that those cap figures are pretty much set in stone, I do see him in a pretty similar way as Janmark. The difference being I would argue Perry has a better chance of helping out offensively than Janmark does. We've already paid Perry at this point so it's time to roll with that decision, and Perry's play will dictate whether it was a good or bad one.

 

[BigG44]

I don't blame people for not mentioning him, but I wonder why I haven't seen Mikael Granlund mentioned on here.

Size wise, skill wise, and even production wise (factoring out the Nashville time), he and Zuccarelo are crazy similar. He has the added benefit of having a down year. No, that's not great from a Dallas fan perspective wanting to try and invigorate the team. However, that is beneficial to Dallas the team that lacks assets to probably compete for the big names.

Sean Shapiro didn't mentioned him in his piece, and he seemed to come to the conclusion that Tyler Toffoli was the likely target in terms of fit and cost. I do wonder though if Granlund would make more sense. I think Dallas would be fortunate, and I'd be very pleased, if they ended up with Toffoli.

It's pretty clear though that Benn-Seguin-Radulov don't have the same magic as a line that they've had. There were big parts of last year that was true, and I would say most of this season that has been true. I think that's why Hintz has been between Benn and Seguin the last 2 games. If you got Toffoli, he obviously could slide right into that RW spot. That said, I wonder if a guy like Granlund though could maybe be a catalyst offensively for Seguin and Radulov. Benn and Perry did have some good games together the few times they were together, and Dickinson could be really solid between them I think.

 

[Satan]

I don't blame people for not mentioning him, but I wonder why I haven't seen Mikael Granlund mentioned on here.

Size wise, skill wise, and even production wise (factoring out the Nashville time), he and Zuccarelo are crazy similar. He has the added benefit of having a down year. No, that's not great from a Dallas fan perspective wanting to try and invigorate the team. However, that is beneficial to Dallas the team that lacks assets to probably compete for the big names.

Sean Shapiro didn't mentioned him in his piece, and he seemed to come to the conclusion that Tyler Toffoli was the likely target in terms of fit and cost. I do wonder though if Granlund would make more sense. I think Dallas would be fortunate, and I'd be very pleased, if they ended up with Toffoli.

It's pretty clear though that Benn-Seguin-Radulov don't have the same magic as a line that they've had. There were big parts of last year that was true, and I would say most of this season that has been true. I think that's why Hintz has been between Benn and Seguin the last 2 games. If you got Toffoli, he obviously could slide right into that RW spot. That said, I wonder if a guy like Granlund though could maybe be a catalyst offensively for Seguin and Radulov. Benn and Perry did have some good games together the few times they were together, and Dickinson could be really solid between them I think.

My guess it has to do with fans preferring not to trade within the division. Granlund would make sense - he has not clicked well in Nashville at all.

 

[BigG44]

Neal for Lucic had production based conditions. Something like an extra 3rd round pick if Neal scored above X number of goals and Lucic scored less than Y number of goals.

That's pretty cool. Thanks for mentioning it. I figured if it was legal in contracts it had to be legal in a trade. With Honka, at least from a Dallas POV, games make the most sense, but I could see the other team wanting a production threshold since he's supposed to be an offensive defender.

Hey ... just happened again. One of the conditions on the Jack Campbell trade that just happened was wins. If he wins 6 regular season games, they get the 3rd. They can apparently also get the 3rd if Clifford re-signs with Toronto so it's and either or situation.

 

[serp]

Hey ... just happened again. One of the conditions on the Jack Campbell trade that just happened was wins. If he wins 6 regular season games, they get the 3rd. They can apparently also get the 3rd if Clifford re-signs with Toronto so it's and either or situation.

No the 3rd is guaranteed. The 3rd becomes a 2nd if Campbell wins 6 or more games OR if Clifford re-signs with the Leafs.

 

[BigG44]

Conditions have updated ... Leafs also have to make the playoffs in addition to Campbell winning 6. I was wrong about the pick though. It's a conditional 3rd. The pick becomes a 2nd if either Clifford re-signs or the other conditions are met.

EDIT: Oops ... missed your post. Yeah I just saw they updated the conditions, and I also noticed that I read incorrectly that the 3rd was guaranteed.