Speculation: 2019-20 Trade Speculation and Discussion

[BigG44]

That $815 was true this morning before roster moves. Calling up Kiviranta actually just pushed them into LTIR space.

Cap space is prorated based on how many days a player is on the roster. Without looking up the exact number right now, there are either 185 or 186 days in the league year. Using the total number of days in the season, you can figure out a player's daily rate. Daily rate doesn't factor in bonuses, and they are therefore not factored in until they are met. Essentially, none of that matters though once you hit LTIR.

Once you reach LTIR space, the full cap hit of a player is what matters. Since bonuses are factored in when you are talking about the full cap hit, you can no longer roll over bonuses for any player called up on LTIR.

Just take Chris Kreider as an example. Technically, Dallas could add Kreider to the team because all of his $4.625 million cap hit would fit within the $4.75 million in LTIR space. Dallas would have to send Kiviranta down because he is currently using $925K in LTIR space only leaving $3,825,000.

The one advantage that Dallas currently has is retained salary still has the exact same impact. Since a team can retain up to 50% of salary, Dallas could technically add $9.5 million in cap hits from 1 or 2 players if the other team or teams retain as much as possible.

If you want to use that on cap dump from another team, you could, but it would probably make more sense to try and actually improve the team. LTIR doesn't have any impact at all on who can go to the minors. If a guy clears waivers and he doesn't have a NMC, he can't prevent a team from sending him down. To this point, I don't think Jim Nill has sent a single player on a one-way contract through waivers and to the minors. I might be forgetting a minor player though.

Personally, I just think it's pretty unlikely to expect Dallas to send anyone on a one-way contract to the AHL until Jim Nill actually does it. It seems to be a tool he chooses to not use like other top teams do when a guy is under-performing his contract.

 

[serp]

I mean outside the guys with NMC's who is underperforming ? The cheaper players are pretty much as we expected or some even better.

 

[BigG44]

He was asking about hypothetically using the space on a cap dump and sending that player to the minors. I never said anything about a guy on the roster right now.

If you want to talk about guys currently on the roster, Corey Perry is a no-brainer. That's an easy argument to make.

In 2 games, Perry will reach another $250K bonus. In less than 3 weeks, he'll likely lock up another $500K in bonuses. If he actually was only a $1.5 million player (his salary), no complaints. There's no reasonable argument I can see where he's worth a $3 to $3.25 million as a 4th line/PP specialist.

Heiskanen's $850K and Gurianov's $212,500 bonuses are virtual locks. Sekera's at minimum getting $300K. He is likely going to get $400K though, and $500K is possible.

I'm not attacking Perry's play. He's been fine as a 4th liner. He's been given half a season though to see if there was anything more than that, and he's not. Financially, it's a no brainer. You're at minimum able to replace him internally with a player that can provide the same level of play, and more than likely, that player could offer more.

Perry's already hit $750K in bonuses. Like I said, he's a virtual lock to be at $1.5 million in 3 weeks if a change isn't made now. That last $250K he could potentially earn (pushing him to $1.75 million) is not likely to be met since Dallas would have to make the Stanley Cup Finals and win.

For me this is the Val Nichushkin decision all over again. It's not the type of move Nill would want to make, but he made the right financial choice in the summer. He's in that same position now. You have an opportunity to make the best financial decision for the upcoming season, and it doesn't hurt the team on the ice.

 

[BigG44]

I just wanted to approach it from one more angle as well. I was avoiding the discussion about if he is even among the 12 best forwards currently on the team just because I knew that could get tedious, but it is worth mentioning. I personally don't think he is. I don't think he's among the Top 11 though either. I say that because everyone seems pretty sold on the idea of adding a forward, and logically, I think we could all agree that will be Nill's primary objective in the next few weeks.

It would seem petty silly, at least IMO, to waste another $750K in cap space next season between now and the trade deadline on Corey Perry. If Dallas didn't have options that are better than Perry right now, again my opinion, I could at least see the argument that you shouldn't shed a guy like Perry until you're sure you could add a guy.

Someone has to come out though, and your option really only seems to be Perry. If Gurianov hadn't played his way into a fixture on the PP, I think he could be in that group. Plus, at leas very recently, he's seemed to earn some more trust from Bones. Janmark and Dickinson are too versatile. Dickinson leads the forwards in PK time, and Janmark is 4th.

 

[BigG44]

nice article in the athletic breaking down trade possibilities. spoiler alert, without devouring the system, there ain't much out there.

my thought though is, the stars have ~4.5M in cap space they can use because of LTIR... could they be in a position to take someone's cap dump just to dump in the minors, and recoup some picks in the process?

He since you read that too, did you get the impression that Shapiro essentially came to the conclusion that Tyler Toffoli was the most logical target based on cost and need? I don't disagree. It sucks there's not a really interesting player that feels like a great target/fit.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

I think Dylan Demelo is gonna be the best bang for your buck on the market this year. I know the Stars aren't looking for a defensive defenseman per se but I believe he's the type of solid low name value player you acquire on the cheap and proceed to re-sign. I think he's a good 20 minute a night defenseman.

I'd be cool with Toffoli, he's young enough to re-sign if he fits in well (his recent down seasons should keep the term from getting too crazy). The rumored deadline price isn't too prohibitive.

 

[Johno]

I think Dylan Demelo is gonna be the best bang for your buck on the market this year. I know the Stars aren't looking for a defensive defenseman per se but I believe he's the type of solid low name value player you acquire on the cheap and proceed to re-sign. I think he's a good 20 minute a night defenseman.

I'd be cool with Toffoli, he's young enough to re-sign if he fits in well (his recent down seasons should keep the term from getting too crazy). The rumored deadline price isn't too prohibitive.

IF Johns can keep up his play (looks to be good) and get his timing back to normal, there is no reason to spend our limited assets on defensemen.

 

[catters078]

I agree with liking the idea of looking at Toffoli, i think Kreider will chase a high price from a team with more draft capital/prospect bargaining chips than we can accommodate..but i think Toffoli would be a price below, but will still offer a skillset we need.

 

[serp]

Honestly the trade markets looks really weak . Not sure there is something out there that helps the team that is available with the Stars assets.

 

[eartotheground]

He since you read that too, did you get the impression that Shapiro essentially came to the conclusion that Tyler Toffoli was the most logical target based on cost and need? I don't disagree. It sucks there's not a really interesting player that feels like a great target/fit.

first, thanks for the explanation above. also, i believe gemel smith was lost off waivers, and one other player around that same time- but yeah, not really anything but minor players.

on toffoli.. i suppose that's the most logical target, however, i don't know that he's going to put this team over the top. i kind of feel like the big boys are either going to get it in gear, or we're toast. if they do start playing to their contracts, with as well as this team defends, they won't need an addition. that's why i was wondering if we could turn that cap space into futures. i wouldn't be willing to pay the price on a krieder level player, and while i could begrudgingly give up some assets for toffoli, i'm just not sure he's enough to kickstart team wide scoring.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

There are guys with term that have had their names thrown out who I like to varying degrees. Kase, Zucker, Anderson, Tatar etc... hard to know if any of those guys would actually be available however.

IF Johns can keep up his play (looks to be good) and get his timing back to normal, there is no reason to spend our limited assets on defensemen.

Hopefully Johns stays healthy and irons out some of the kinks in his game. Some other team will be lucky enough to acquire Demelo then I suppose.

 

[Johno]

There are guys with term that have had their names thrown out who I like to varying degrees. Kase, Zucker, Anderson, Tatar etc... hard to know if any of those guys would actually be available however.



Hopefully Johns stays healthy and irons out some of the kinks in his game. Some other team will be lucky enough to acquire Demelo then I suppose.

Oh for sure. And had things gone differently with Johns or the salary/asset situation, he'd be a nice pickup to play alongside Miro.

Perhaps a summer pickup target. He's UFA in July.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

He was asking about hypothetically using the space on a cap dump and sending that player to the minors. I never said anything about a guy on the roster right now.

If you want to talk about guys currently on the roster, Corey Perry is a no-brainer. That's an easy argument to make.

In 2 games, Perry will reach another $250K bonus. In less than 3 weeks, he'll likely lock up another $500K in bonuses. If he actually was only a $1.5 million player (his salary), no complaints. There's no reasonable argument I can see where he's worth a $3 to $3.25 million as a 4th line/PP specialist.

Heiskanen's $850K and Gurianov's $212,500 bonuses are virtual locks. Sekera's at minimum getting $300K. He is likely going to get $400K though, and $500K is possible.

I'm not attacking Perry's play. He's been fine as a 4th liner. He's been given half a season though to see if there was anything more than that, and he's not. Financially, it's a no brainer. You're at minimum able to replace him internally with a player that can provide the same level of play, and more than likely, that player could offer more.

Perry's already hit $750K in bonuses. Like I said, he's a virtual lock to be at $1.5 million in 3 weeks if a change isn't made now. That last $250K he could potentially earn (pushing him to $1.75 million) is not likely to be met since Dallas would have to make the Stanley Cup Finals and win.

For me this is the Val Nichushkin decision all over again. It's not the type of move Nill would want to make, but he made the right financial choice in the summer. He's in that same position now. You have an opportunity to make the best financial decision for the upcoming season, and it doesn't hurt the team on the ice.

Depending on how much of Perry’s contract goes over to next season he could end up being a very regrettable signing. I think the Stars really wanted a right wing this offseason and didn’t expect to get both Perry and Pavelski.

 

[Troy McClure]

He was asking about hypothetically using the space on a cap dump and sending that player to the minors. I never said anything about a guy on the roster right now.

If you want to talk about guys currently on the roster, Corey Perry is a no-brainer. That's an easy argument to make.

In 2 games, Perry will reach another $250K bonus. In less than 3 weeks, he'll likely lock up another $500K in bonuses. If he actually was only a $1.5 million player (his salary), no complaints. There's no reasonable argument I can see where he's worth a $3 to $3.25 million as a 4th line/PP specialist.

Heiskanen's $850K and Gurianov's $212,500 bonuses are virtual locks. Sekera's at minimum getting $300K. He is likely going to get $400K though, and $500K is possible.

I'm not attacking Perry's play. He's been fine as a 4th liner. He's been given half a season though to see if there was anything more than that, and he's not. Financially, it's a no brainer. You're at minimum able to replace him internally with a player that can provide the same level of play, and more than likely, that player could offer more.

Perry's already hit $750K in bonuses. Like I said, he's a virtual lock to be at $1.5 million in 3 weeks if a change isn't made now. That last $250K he could potentially earn (pushing him to $1.75 million) is not likely to be met since Dallas would have to make the Stanley Cup Finals and win.

For me this is the Val Nichushkin decision all over again. It's not the type of move Nill would want to make, but he made the right financial choice in the summer. He's in that same position now. You have an opportunity to make the best financial decision for the upcoming season, and it doesn't hurt the team on the ice.

Nill shouldn’t let Perry earn another penny of bonus money. He’s not worth it. Any random AHL call up can take stupid penalties for a lower cap hit than Perry.

But Nill is going to keep Perry on the roster until the end of the season because that’s Nill’s way.

 

[MilesNewton]

There are guys with term that have had their names thrown out who I like to varying degrees. Kase, Zucker, Anderson, Tatar etc... hard to know if any of those guys would actually be available however.



Hopefully Johns stays healthy and irons out some of the kinks in his game. Some other team will be lucky enough to acquire Demelo then I suppose.

DeMelo has always played with Chabot another uber talent. I think he could be somewhat overrated - possibly the same effect but not as bad as the Ceci in Toronto situation.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Nill shouldn’t let Perry earn another penny of bonus money. He’s not worth it. Any random AHL call up can take stupid penalties for a lower cap hit than Perry.

But Nill is going to keep Perry on the roster until the end of the season because that’s Nill’s way.

I believe his rep for treating players well helps the team in trades and UFA. They want to, or don't mind coming here. So, if a replacement was equal on ice to a 4th line player, it makes sense to keep him, even giving up a bit of salary and cap space.

 

[Hockey Dad]

If Kreider is healthy would y’all rather have him or Tartar. I really wish a trade for Coleman could happen but don’t see that working.

 

[Smelling Salt]

Tatar for me out of those two.

 

[BigG44]

Tatar for me out of those two.

I hadn't really considered any hockey trade options other than Coleman. His salary next year is so small it's not really a concern. I'm not advocating for adding salary or not next season, but I was just a bit curious what the current situation is since I have only really thought about the bonus overage.

After the NHL's projection last season during December for the projected cap was off, looks like Betteman was gun shy to actually state a number this time. I believe it was TSN that reported around that time most teams were budgeting for a $1 million increase in the cap to $82.5 million.

Dallas has 15 players plus Nichushkin's buyout costing $62,035,832 against the cap. Add in an estimated overage bonus, and you're at $64,998,332 or about $17.5 million in cap space.

Benn-Seguin-Radulov
*****-*****-Pavelski
Cogliano-*****-Comeau
*****-Dickinson-*****
Dowling

Lindell-Klingberg
Heiskanen-Johns
Oleksiak-*****
Fedun

Bishop
*****

It's too soon to get bogged down in RFA contracts. Shapiro thought Dallas might go long term with Hintz and Gurianov in the $4 million range ... trying to hopefully create another Klingberg type situation where you overpay without much data on the guy and gamble that he is who you think he is. I think you could probably be safe and say they'll get $5 to $9 million between them depending on a bridge deal or longer term contract. Faksa is hard. He's got a $2.4 million QO, he has arbitration rights, and we've seen other checking centers get $4 to $5 million in UFA. He's only a single year away from UFA. He's also a reasonable trade target. I'm tempted to just throw out say $10 to $12 million between the 3 main RFAs. Based on next year's likely cap limit and limited cap space, I think they would go short term on all three players to keep the numbers down. That said, long term, the reason to try and get Hintz and Gurianov locked up now rather than later is so you don't end up negotiating a monster contract with Heiskanen while having to deal with Hintz and Gurianov's 2nd contracts where they would have arbitration rights.

If we play it a bit safer and go high and say $12 million, Dallas would only have approximately $5.5 million in cap space for 4 more roster spots. I think it would probably be a bad idea to not bring back Khudobin. We discussed a potential contract a few weeks ago, and based on age and performance, he's going to be in the $3 million range. Kiviranta, Gardner, and Cecconi have $925,000 cap hits. Harley's will go down to $894,167 (contract slide). Dellandrea's will go down to $863,333 (also contract slide). Jason Robertson will be at $795,000, and Caamano is at $738,333.

If you wanted to a guy like Tatar, you probably will be forced to trade Faksa in the summer, and I'm not saying that is a bad idea or deal breaker. Dickinson has shown some ability to slide up the lineup into that spot. It would likely require a change at GM, but I personally would say move Cogliano instead. I actually think shedding Faksa and Cogliano would likely be necessary IMO unless you want to virtually bring back the exact same team.

It's not impossible to make a hockey trade for a guy with term, but I do think it's unlikely unless the guy is on a smaller deal.

 

[BigG44]

I'm not advocating this, and again .... it's not happening with Jim Nill as the GM ... but if you were curious a buyout of Cogliano would cost $1,083,333 for 2 seasons. The cap savings next year would be $2,166,667, and he would likely be replaced with one of the many ELCs I listed above. Your actual savings would only really be just about $1.3 million after you replaced him.

I like that Cogliano is on the team. I'm just suggesting financially he might be someone that you have to think about parting ways with. I don't think a buyout is the way to go though.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

I don’t think buying out Cogs is the correct option. We are going to be in a much larger cap crunch next summer than we are this summer. Miro is going to get a massive extension likely 8M or higher unless we bridge him (not smart)

 

[M88K]

I don’t think buying out Cogs is the correct option. We are going to be in a much larger cap crunch next summer than we are this summer. Miro is going to get a massive extension likely 8M or higher unless we bridge him (not smart)

Miro isn't getting higher than 8 without substantially more offensive output.
But we have 33mil in space for the year his extension kicks in (based on 81.5) buying out Cogs wouldn't hamper the team that year as much as letting him play the previous year would.

Extensions for Hintz and Gurianov and even Faksa would cut into that 33mil but even at overpaid amounts for all 3 there is substantial money available to fill out the remaining spots for a year until radulov, and pavelskis contracts fall off. Not to mention whoever gets claimed in expansion and still pay Miro, and of course cap growth even if small over the next couple of seasons too.

 

[Hockey Dad]

I think it would be smarter to trade Cogliano even if had to retain. Then the hit would only be for one year.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I think it would be smarter to trade Cogliano even if had to retain. Then the hit would only be for one year.

I agree. We could get some kind of draft pick for him, at least. Maybe a 3rd. Probably a 4th. We need picks And we shouldn't have to retain much if any salary.

 

[Hockey Dad]

Even though people don’t want to admit it Cogliano was brought in partly to help in the room. If they knew that Pavelski would be here this year I don’t think the Cogliano trade happens. I think Nill will be looking to move him in the offseason.