2019/20 Roster Thread XXV [Dec. 4: Vorobyev recalled]

[Beef Invictus]

For goalies playing at least 8 games, Elliott is:

21st in SV%
24th in GAA
26th in Wins
7-2-2 record

That is fantastic to have from your backup. If that pro-rates over that season, we should be very happy. Oh, and he is not retiring after the season...lol. Where did that thought even come from? Be ready for a re-signing if he keeps playing well.

In 2018-2019:

Starting goalies faced 51,846 shots, stopping 47,304. Average: .912

Backups faced 24,951 shots, stopping 22,624. Average: .906

Elliot at .916 is performing as about an average starter, not as a backup.

 

[Appleyard]

To echo Appleyard, results often mask process. Until they don't.

The PP has shown almost no ability to execute plays below the circles, besides JVR jam plays. As a great philosopher once said, "Purple baaaaad."

I think they really miss Voracek's entries too... just struggling to get set up.

JvR
Giroux-Couturier/Lindblom-Voracek
Gostisbehere

is probably the PP that on paper gets the best results.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So is this a forward problem or the dmen? Would Ghosts creative ability fix this specific problem in your opinion?

Ghost probably helps.

JVR getting his shit together would probably help the most.

 

[Striiker]

He's been doing a better job moving the puck on the PP this season. I think he feels more comfortable. He's still not the best option, but i've seen some improvement.

I don’t think he’s suddenly changed individually or improved in any of the areas that he was lacking previously. Still too stiff, doesn’t open up space, isn’t all that dangerous, isn’t quick enough when passing, ... but playing with much better PP teammates surely helps.

Regardless, like you said, the problem is that he’s not the best option. Improved or not improved, we need to make the PP as strong as possible for the teams sake, and that just doesn’t include Provorov. I love the guy, but this isn’t his strong area and we have two guys that just need to be there more than him. He’ll still get crazy amounts of time at 5v5 with the top 6.

 

[TCTC]

Ghost probably helps.

JVR getting his **** together would probably help the most.

Ghost is still on the PP. If he's so much better on the PP than any other defenseman then why is Niskanen outproducing him?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Statistically, Provy gets hit shot through at a higher rate than the others. That feels right. Ghost takes 8 more shot attempts/60 and gets 1 less on net. But Provy's shots also grade out as lower danger /60, even though he gets more through. A 20% individual shooting % also isn't sustainable from that distance or any distance.

They're pretty mediocre either way not getting looks in higher % areas. Just a matter of degree. It's a team problem too, with all the unit nonsense.

The colors are relative to league averages. The comparison is baked in. They're not 27th in xGF/60 on the PP because they shoot from dangerous spots. Obviously, PKs want to prevent those and encourage perimeter shots. Every PP takes point shots. But good PPs still get below dot chances.

Here's the heat chart of the league best VGK (by xGF):

Interesting. But if I’m reading the charts correctly, the difference between even the darkest brown & the darkest purple are a measly 2 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, so I feel like the graphical demonstration could be misleading in implying vast differences that aren’t really there.

 

[Tripod]

Ghost probably helps.

JVR getting his **** together would probably help the most.

It all helps.

Giroux to Hartnell or Schenn in the slot was a very successful option that created goals for the shooter....but also deflection and rebound's galore for Simmonds and at times Jake depending on the bounce.

With us not focusing on that setup anymore with TK in the slot, we are hurting ourselves. It's just so odd how so many people who have so much film to watch, can get something very simple, so wrong.

 

[bobbythebrain]

 

[Tripod]

Ghost is still on the PP. If he's so much better on the PP than any other defenseman then why is Niskanen outproducing him?

By that same logic, Konecny is better than Giroux on the PP because TK is outproducing him.

See how that logic doesn't always work?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ghost is still on the PP. If he's so much better on the PP than any other defenseman then why is Niskanen outproducing him?

Where did I say he's better than any other defenseman, or Niskanen?

 

[TCTC]

By that same logic, Konecny is better than Giroux on the PP because TK is outproducing him.

See how that logic doesn't always work?

Konecny's had a huge impact on our PP though. He's probably the main reason our 2nd unit hasn't been a waste of time.

 

[Magua]

Interesting. But if I’m reading the charts correctly, the difference between even the darkest brown & the darkest purple are a measly 2 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, so I feel like the graphical demonstration could be misleading in implying vast differences that aren’t really there.

The Flyers average 1.4 shots/PP. Vegas averages 1.8. It's a multi shot differential from every spot of the ice. It's more misleading to portray it as a several shot difference cumulatively. The Flyers not shooting from the middle or below dots should match any eye test. Especially when they had zero one time options by choice.

 

[Striiker]

Ghost is still on the PP. If he's so much better on the PP than any other defenseman then why is Niskanen outproducing him?

He has ONE more PP point than Ghost because he was on the 2nd unit when it was on fire to start the year, same as Provorov.

4 of Niskanens 6 PP points were in the first 9 games. During which time that unit was playing unsustainably well and scored 6 goals in those 9 games. 2 for TK, 2 for Lindblom, 1 for Provorov, 1 for Niskanen.

In the other 19 games this year, Ghost is outscoring Niskanen on the PP (while only playing 16 of those games and playing less PP time total).

Give the agenda a rest. It couldnt be more clear that you’re just desperately searching for things to knock Ghost for, while ignoring all context.

 

[Starat327]

He has ONE more PP point than Ghost because he was on the 2nd unit when it was on fire to start the year, same as Provorov.

4 of Niskanens 6 PP points were in the first 9 games. During which time that unit was playing unsustainably well and scored 6 goals in those 9 games. 2 for TK, 2 for Lindblom, 1 for Provorov, 1 for Niskanen.

In the other 19 games this year, Ghost is outscoring Niskanen on the PP (while only playing 16 of those games and playing less PP time total).

Give the agenda a rest. It couldnt be more clear that you’re just desperately searching for things to knock Ghost for, while ignoring all context.

GONER

 

[Rebels57]

It all helps.

Giroux to Hartnell or Schenn in the slot was a very successful option that created goals for the shooter....but also deflection and rebound's galore for Simmonds and at times Jake depending on the bounce.

With us not focusing on that setup anymore with TK in the slot, we are hurting ourselves. It's just so odd how so many people who have so much film to watch, can get something very simple, so wrong.

They don't have a single go-to play on the PP right now.

It really can't be understated how terrible of a job Therrien has done so far. It's almost like they aren't being coached at all. Actually I take that back. If you left the PP to Giroux to coach, he could get the unit on track.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The Flyers average 1.4 shots/PP. Vegas averages 1.8. It's a multi shot differential from every spot of the ice. It's more misleading to portray it as a several shot difference cumulatively. The Flyers not shooting from the middle or below dots should match any eye test. Especially when they had zero one time options by choice.

Well, that’s a strawman as it relates to what I said. I said absolutely nothing about cumulative being less misleading.

The fact of the matter is you’re talking at most a 2 shot difference in those areas of the ice per 60 minutes of PP ice time between Philly & the top PP in Vegas.

Simply, in my personal opinion, at first glance, if one isn’t careful, the presentation could make it seem like the difference is much, much greater than it is.

 

[Magua]

Said to no one in particular, I so dislike when people point to non-contextualized results in small sample and use it to prove they're closer to some universal truth. No, you just used a past result to say a past result happened. It's a convenient way to never look wrong day-to-day, while actually saying little of predictive value long-term.

People are always afraid of the concept of regression; of the unsustainable; of short-term results not corroborating with long-term processes. Short-term can be a whole year. Usually, things catch up. People watch a sport where elite talents deposit a frozen puck in a small net through a mass of bodies at 10-15% and act surprised that it's prone to massive fluctuations. Good things don't mean good things continue; bad things don't mean bad things continue. But sometimes they do!

 

[Striiker]

Looks like the stats match the eye test on this one. Both units play better with Ghost than Provorov. Difference is Ghost's teammates don't finish when he's on the ice, (see the on-ice SH%) even though they get more chances (partly because those idiots had Giroux on the wrong side).

Rates tell a similar story

CF/60
Giroux + Provorov: 82.03
Giroux + Ghost: 123.53

CF/60
Couturier + Provorov: 83.3
Couturier + Ghost: 111.99

xGF/60
Giroux + Provorov: 5.52
Giroux + Ghost: 8.14

xGF/60
Couturier + Provorov: 5.9
Couturier + Ghost: 7.4

 

[Striiker]

They don't have a single go-to play on the PP right now.

It really can't be understated how terrible of a job Therrien has done so far. It's almost like they aren't being coached at all. Actually I take that back. If you left the PP to Giroux to coach, he could get the unit on track.

1000000000% correct

 

[Rebels57]

I'd like to see the following tried..

--------TK ------NET-------------

Giroux----------JVR----------Voracek

----------------Ghost------------------

Give Giroux a righty to pass to below the goal line to relieve pressure. TK can then look to jam it home, pass to the slot for JVR, ring around to Jake, or go back to Giroux who can look for JVR or Ghost. When Giroux had Simmonds or Patrick as a below-the-goal line righty, the unit seemed to function best. You can switch out JVR for Coots or another lefty in the slot if you want.

 

[Curufinwe]

16 Stats: Pittsburgh's success despite injuries, the...

Only two teams have allowed fewer than 40 shots-per-60 on the penalty kill in a full season since 2007-08: the 2016-17 Capitals and the 2011-12 Canadiens. This year’s Flyers are hoping to be the third, so far sitting on the edge at 39.9 shots against. That’s 12 fewer shots than last season and it’s made a large dent on the number of goals the team has allowed, cutting things down from 7.9 goals against per 60 to five on the dot. That’s good for third in the league and a big part of the team’s success so far this season. The best way to help your goalie out on the penalty kill is to make sure he doesn’t see much rubber and Philadelphia is executing that to a tee.

 

[deadhead]

PP - xGF/60
2019-20: 5.53
2018-19: 7.51
2017-18: 7.55
2016-17: 8.07
2015-16: 7.15

 

[Philly Fanatik]

1000000000% correct

They don't have a single go-to play on the PP right now.

It really can't be understated how terrible of a job Therrien has done so far. It's almost like they aren't being coached at all. Actually I take that back. If you left the PP to Giroux to coach, he could get the unit on track.

...a PLAYER to coach the PP???
Fitting....seeing how the pass two weeks have played out with our DINOSAUR unethical NHL coaches debacle!

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Interesting. Obviously there’s issue with the Flyers performance pretty much most of this decade that contributes. But there’s more issues that even go beyond hockey here in America with attendance to sporting events.

Obviously with hockey it becomes more magnified as it’s a niche sport here & they don’t have the margin for error like the other leagues. But even baseball is having similar issues. They’re becoming a niche/regional sport with the younger generation themselves.

As younger person there’s honestly really no reason for someone like me to buy season tickets with the prices & commitment it would entail with secondary ticket selling sites. I’m not going to a boatload of games even in a good year at this point so even if I pay a little more per game basis (assuming the product is even demanding that market) it’s worth it for the convenience.

 

[Rebels57]

...a PLAYER to coach the PP???
Fitting....seeing how the pass two weeks have played out with our DINOSAUR unethical NHL coaches debacle!

Im very pleased with AV and Yeo so far.

Therrien has destroyed the PP though.

30th in Expected GF %

We have not finished worse than 10th in the past decade in that according to @Appleyard

Hes really cocked it all up.