Speculation: 2019-20 Anaheim Ducks Roster Discussion Part III

[Ducks DVM]

They are at a point where things can go either way: right now it could be that they are going thru early season struggles to score & eventually start scoring or they continue to struggle. The one player i'm worried about is Terry, if he doesn't start to prodce it could hurt his confidence that he can't score at the NHL level.

The situation the Ducks were in back in 2017-18 is what the Sharks are going thru as they are likely in their last year of their playoff runs if they do somehow make the playoffs like that Ducks 2017-18 team did as they eventually climbed all the way back to barely make it in but got knocked out early.

From all reports, Eakins is very good about taking care of his players mental/emotional statuses, so I think he will be dialed in and watching for that. I’m sure that they’ve already discussed sending him down if needed. It really looks like he’s on the brink of making it work though. I wish we had the depth to give him a scorer to feed.

Agreed on San Jose, although yikes for their draft this year if they miss.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Could the Ducks just stay pat at Top4 D until after the expansion draft in a few years ? Getzlaf's next contract won't be 9mil per year so they'll have more room to sign a UFA Top4 D as well as Kesler's contract being in the finale year during Seattles first season.

Nashville moving out PK Subban makes their expansion draft easier, just protect Josi/Ekholm/Ellis & that prevents Seattle from getting anything as Nashville can protect more forwards from not having to protect 4Dmen.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Could the Ducks just stay pat at Top4 D until after the expansion draft in a few years ? Getzlaf's next contract won't be 9mil per year so they'll have more room to sign a UFA Top4 D as well as Kesler's contract being in the finale year during Seattles first season.

Nashville moving out PK Subban makes their expansion draft easier, just protect Josi/Ekholm/Ellis & that prevents Seattle from getting anything as Nashville can protect more forwards from not having to protect 4Dmen.

Has the NHL officially announced the expansion draft rules for the next round? The owners seemed less than thrilled with Vegas getting instant success, you’d have to think that there will be some push for making them less generous.

 

[Static]

This Week In NHL Numbers: An Early Look at the 2019-20 League Leaders - TheHockeyNews

Thought getzlaf leading the league in takeaways was interesting.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Has the NHL officially announced the expansion draft rules for the next round? The owners seemed less than thrilled with Vegas getting instant success, you’d have to think that there will be some push for making them less generous.

The same expansion draft rules last i read. Is Guhle exempt ? They could sign a Guhle replacement or one of Mahura/Larsson/Benoit steps up by then.

 

[Spazkat]

Has the NHL officially announced the expansion draft rules for the next round? The owners seemed less than thrilled with Vegas getting instant success, you’d have to think that there will be some push for making them less generous.

Seems like a lot of what Vegas got was only partly due to the expansion draft rules. Some was completely unexpected ie: Wild Bill suddenly turning into a top 6 player (really... who saw that coming?) Then some other GM's tried to get tricky and it didn't work out. In retrospect, Theodore was a really expensive chip to use to to get rid of one year of Stoners contract, and who knows what the Panthers GM was thinking.

 

[Ducks DVM]

The same expansion draft rules last i read. Is Guhle exempt ? They could sign a Guhle replacement or one of Mahura/Larsson/Benoit steps up by then.

Guehle is on the last year of his ELC right now so he will be eligible.

You’re correct, it’s the same rules.
Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

I wonder what the cutoff is for games played for “first- and second-year NHL players” as far as Steel, Terry, Jones, and Lundestrom are concerned.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Seems like a lot of what Vegas got was only partly due to the expansion draft rules. Some was completely unexpected ie: Wild Bill suddenly turning into a top 6 player (really... who saw that coming?) Then some other GM's tried to get tricky and it didn't work out. In retrospect, Theodore was a really expensive chip to use to to get rid of one year of Stoners contract, and who knows what the Panthers GM was thinking.

It was, but sending Theodore also let us keep both Vatanen and Manson. Vegas would have taken one of them for sure otherwise. I have no idea how the Panthers GM has a hockey job.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Guehle is on the last year of his ELC right now so he will be eligible.

You’re correct, it’s the same rules.
Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

I wonder what the cutoff is for games played for “first- and second-year NHL players” as far as Steel, Terry, Jones, and Lundestrom are concerned.

Steel/Terry/Jones will have to be protected i think but Comtois/Lundestrom might be exempt i'm not sure.
Depending on how the players develop they could leave Henrique & Ritchie exposed.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I think we will eventually start scoring goals. The defense being where it is, is a pleasant surprise. I think Steel can help balance out the roster but if Anaheim plays 50/50 games alot it will be good enough bc of our goalies. Asking them to make 5-8 big saves vs 1-13 each games matters

I'm really hoping Steel can help get the ketchup flowing, even though that's a lot of hope to pin on him. Having the rookies and most of the D be zeroes in the goal column for 5 games (or more) at a time is going to be rough.

 

[duxfan1101]

Guehle is on the last year of his ELC right now so he will be eligible.

You’re correct, it’s the same rules.
Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

I wonder what the cutoff is for games played for “first- and second-year NHL players” as far as Steel, Terry, Jones, and Lundestrom are concerned.

They will all have completed their 3rd pro season by then, so they are all eligible. As are Mahura, Larsson, and Guhle. If Comtois had played 1 more game last season, he would also have been eligible. The players who are not eligible would be guys who begin their pro careers this year or next year. I don't believe Benoit would be eligible because he was on an AHL deal last season, but I could be wrong.

EDIT: According to CapFriendly's Expansion Draft Tool, Benoit would be exempt.

 

[Mr Rogers]

They are at a point where things can go either way: right now it could be that they are going thru early season struggles to score & eventually start scoring or they continue to struggle. The one player i'm worried about is Terry, if he doesn't start to prodce it could hurt his confidence that he can't score at the NHL level.

The situation the Ducks were in back in 2017-18 is what the Sharks are going thru as they are likely in their last year of their playoff runs if they do somehow make the playoffs like that Ducks 2017-18 team did as they eventually climbed all the way back to barely make it in but got knocked out early.

I've been having this thought as well. Getting on the board with either some assists or goals would be huge for him.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

They are at a point where things can go either way: right now it could be that they are going thru early season struggles to score & eventually start scoring or they continue to struggle. The one player i'm worried about is Terry, if he doesn't start to prodce it could hurt his confidence that he can't score at the NHL level.

The situation the Ducks were in back in 2017-18 is what the Sharks are going thru as they are likely in their last year of their playoff runs if they do somehow make the playoffs like that Ducks 2017-18 team did as they eventually climbed all the way back to barely make it in but got knocked out early.

Terry's underlying numbers are OK, if he was scoreless in the middle of the season for 5 games it wouldn't be that big of a deal. He needs to be paired with a goal scorer I've been wanting a line of Rakell/Getz/Terry but we don't have very many natural goal scorers

 

[Sean Garrity]

This Week In NHL Numbers: An Early Look at the 2019-20 League Leaders - TheHockeyNews

Thought getzlaf leading the league in takeaways was interesting.

"Granted, it’s a bit of an obscure stat, but Anaheim captain Ryan Getzlaf is leading the way with 11 takeaways through five games, which is three more takeaways than runner-up Sebastian Aho of Carolina. Getzlaf, it should be noted, is also winning 63.9 percent of his faceoffs – he’s 39-22 in the circle — and he ranks among the top 30 forwards with 13 hits and among the top 20 forwards with four blocked shots. There’s still some pluck in the old Duck."

I don't know his fancy advanced stats, but all that above is impressive. If he can continue that with putting up 65ish points he'll be a damn good player this season. His points would obviously go up if he centered the Swedes, but that's probably not the best for the team. Maybe he's just a late bloomer turning in to an "elite" 2-way player as opposed to just an offensive catalyst which he was for many years.

 

[caliamad]

I think terry looked really food fod the first time last game. I really like him playing the 3rd line with no pressure and easier matchups

I think the ducks dont do anything at 2nd rhd unless something falls in their laps.

honestly del zotto and guehle dont look that bad and Fowler looks like a different player.

 

[bsu]

Wish we had a caufield type prospect....dude can rip it

 

[KyleJRM]

My probably unfair instinct is that it's easier to get a lot of takeaways when the other team always has the puck because you can't skate 10 feet to get to a loose one.

 

[duxfan1101]

I don't know if I'd like the price, but I do think Ristolainen is a perfect fit for our team. And another player I'd be willing to take a shot on in the UFA market (if he has another down year and is willing to take a short term deal) is Galchenyuk. He's got a good one-timer and is a left-handed shot who can play wing or even center in a pinch.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

My probably unfair instinct is that it's easier to get a lot of takeaways when the other team always has the puck because you can't skate 10 feet to get to a loose one.

Yeah, people who never have the puck and can't skate are renowned for their ability to go get the puck. Late-stage Dany Heatley, for example, constantly had the puck because of how rarely he had the puck.

 

[KelVarnsen]

My probably unfair instinct is that it's easier to get a lot of takeaways when the other team always has the puck because you can't skate 10 feet to get to a loose one.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

You’re being a contrarian because you’re accusing me of being “dishonest” on a matter of opinion. You’re the only one making this a moral failing rather than simply discussing it, and as usual you make an issue of me having a moral failing rather than just disagreeing. There actually wasn’t all that much pushback, and there are those that agree with me too. People disagreeing on a message board. It must be the first time that’s ever happened. If you want to push back, pushback with arguments. Also, look up the definition of “dishonest”, and stop making moral implications about me. If you want to say my facts are wrong, provide your own.

Losing Bobrovsky alone makes Columbus a questionable playoff pick. Losing Panarin iced it. WITH those 4 players they were the last seed in the playoffs, making it in by 2 points after winning 6 of their last 7 games. Their new starting goaltender has a career 0.906 SV%. They’re being picked as a lottery team by oddsmakers and pundits this year. So no, I do not have to refer to it as a win over what I consider a “playoff team”, the burden on you is to show how they ARE with something other than an appeal to the majority.

San Jose has been about as far from good without those 4 players as possible.
NHL.com - Stats

Sort for TOI/GP
Pavelski 19:03
Hertl 19:01
Couture 18:36
Kane 18:25
Meier 16:58
Nyquist 15:34
Thornton 15: 33
Labanc 14 :01
Donskoi 13:25
I said 1,4,6, and 9. Those numbers appear to be not “close” but “actual’. If you want to play the ESTOI game, they are 1,2,7,8 although in the playoffs then it was actually 1,3,6, and 9, which again is my point of just misstating on Donskoi.

“I’m a good guy, because even though thou art needlessly dishonest, and aren’t helping thineself by being needlessly dishonest, I will point that out to the masses with stinging rhetoric that they might thus be enlightened as to thine moral failings, while magnanimously allowing that the overall premise that thou dost posit might perchance contain a mere kernel of truth, that I shall water with my blessings, while providing no reason for that position to be so other than mine admission, nor other than mine own glorious opinion. So let it be written, so let it be done”.

Lmao I'm not remotely being contrarian. You're the one who tried to call San Jose a non playoff team, that's being the contrarian. Especially when many people have pushed back on that bad opinion.

For Columbus, I wouldn't disagree with them being called that whatsoever but you even chose to highlight the loss of Dzingel, which is exactly the kind of thing I'm calling dishonest. Same with San Jose, where you highlighted some fairly minor losses and totally ignored that their core five guys, which they're reliant on more than maybe any other team, very much played that game.

This isn't opinion, zero chance you would have ever referred to them as a non playoff team, even with their bad start, until it fit this narrative you wanted to push. Pretty much the definition of contrarian.

 

[Deuce22]

My probably unfair instinct is that it's easier to get a lot of takeaways when the other team always has the puck because you can't skate 10 feet to get to a loose one.

Probably easier to get a loose puck than to take a puck away from an NHL player.

 

[Exit Dose]

Stripping pucks from people and turning that into offense was basically Datsyuk's stock and trade.

 

[Paul4587]

"Granted, it’s a bit of an obscure stat, but Anaheim captain Ryan Getzlaf is leading the way with 11 takeaways through five games, which is three more takeaways than runner-up Sebastian Aho of Carolina. Getzlaf, it should be noted, is also winning 63.9 percent of his faceoffs – he’s 39-22 in the circle — and he ranks among the top 30 forwards with 13 hits and among the top 20 forwards with four blocked shots. There’s still some pluck in the old Duck."

I don't know his fancy advanced stats, but all that above is impressive. If he can continue that with putting up 65ish points he'll be a damn good player this season. His points would obviously go up if he centered the Swedes, but that's probably not the best for the team. Maybe he's just a late bloomer turning in to an "elite" 2-way player as opposed to just an offensive catalyst which he was for many years.

His fancy stats are 6th out of the 14 ducks forwards who have played a game a the moment (5th out of 13 if you exclude Comtois). Fancy stats generally need at least a 20 game sample size before they actually mean anything though - right now Rowney and Grant have horrific underlying numbers which don’t match the eye test whatsoever and Lundestroms numbers are Bergeronesque.

 

[Paul4587]

Was reading an article in the athletic - apparently Silfverberg and Manson are the only two who get As in their jersey this year unlike last year where there was a rotation. Did Silfverberg have a letter last year? I thought the 4 last year who rotated were Cam, Manson, Henrique and Perry/Kesler, was wondering if Silf was ever in the rotating cast?