At this point, pending further injuries, and the natural ebb and flow of player and team performance, I would project that the Canucks are going to be a bubble playoff team - fighting for a wildcard slot in the last weeks of the season. Yes they are 2nd in the Pacific division right now, and the division is comparably weak, but early standing are deceptive. San Jose and Edmonton are only 1 point behind with 1 and 2 fewer games played respectively. Also you have to think that at least San Jose and Vegas get it together at some point - I'm not sure if LA and Anaheim are built for the speed of the NHL in 2018. Arizona is sort of stuck in the middle.
The start has been remarkable - but play is loose early in the season and goals will become harder to come by in the dark days of January - February. That said - if the team gets healthy - returns Edler, Tanev, Sutter, Beagle and Baertschi, they have the bodies to play a lot more structured to win games 2-1 or 1-0. With the current D, they have to score 3+ most nights. But I still think pecking order of the division will sort itself out by December.
I don't think either Edler or Tanev will be traded. I'm sure Benning would like to trade Edler, but all indications are that he will not waive his NTC. It has been reported (edit - it was Dahliwal) that Benning wants Tanev to play with Hughes going forward, so Tanev will probably not be moved.
So if there is to be a move at the deadline it will have to be a "hockey trade" as the Canucks will likely not be totally out of the playoff picture. Even though Hutton is playing much better right now, if the rest of the D are healthy, Hutton could be moved. If he continues his much improved play, it would be selling high - something Benning has not been inclined to do. Del Zotto is the other defender who should be trade bait as teams are always looking for defensive depth at the deadline. The other option would be Gudbransson, but his contract is a bit of an albatross. There is also a chance they could move Gagner for something - but not much. I don't think anyone should get their hopes up for a big move at the deadline, and certainly not one that returns draft picks as Benning doesn't do that. Maybe an under 25 scoring winger or a more physical, D.
I think there is a very good chance that Quinn Hughes signs with the Canucks after his NCAA season - depending on playoffs and timing and finishes the season playing in Vancouver. It is also likely that Olli Juolevi is called up for a run of games this season.
So given a bubble, wildcard or less finish, we will be drafting somewhere between 10 and 20. You can get quality players in that range, but no one who will have an immediate impact. The biggest impact in 2019-20 will be Quinn Hughes and the on-going development of Pettersson, Boeser and Horvat. I also expect Dahlen and Gaudette to challenge to make the team in training camp.
So given that state of the team, how would I handle the off season?
- Draft - just draft the best player available this year. While the team could use a true power forward and a mobile, physical defender, anyone drafted where I project we will be picking is not going to be an NHL player for a couple of years. So BPA.
- Canucks RFAs and UFAs - Granlund (RFA), Motte (RFA), Boeser (RFA), Goldobin (RFA), Gaunce (RFA), Archibald (UFA), Leipsic (RFA), Edler (UFA), Del Zotto (UFA), Hutton (RFA), Pouliot (RFA), Nillson (UFA). I think you cut bait with Archibald, Leipsic, Pouliot and probably Del Zotto. Even though he is signed, I don't see Gagner in the picture going forward. Gaunce is cheap depth who will likely clear waivers. The jury is still out on Nilsson.
Granlund would be tough decision. He's a decent utility player who can play C or either Wing and any line if needed. I certainly prefer him to Eriksson, but we are stuck with Louie the X (goals). The development of Gaudette will probably be a factor. If Gaudette can be a utility guy who can play C or W at 12+ minutes per game, PK, defend and chip in with secondary scoring, he will make Granlund expendable. The health of Baertschi and development of Dahlen will also factor in. If Beartschi can only play 40 - 50 healthy games per season and score at a 0.5 PPG in those games, I would certainly prefer Granlund on Horvat's wing than Eriksson. Or maybe you just address that need in the UFA market.
Del Zotto is also a question mark. He certainly brings a physical presence in a medium sized package. Him and Gudbransson are really the only D who hit consistently. It's too bad he doesn't read the game well enough to be a shutdown defender. I think it best to try to move MDZ at the trade deadline.
- UFA/RFA market - I'm tempted to say avoid the UFA market because Benning likes to sign plumbers to 4+ year contracts. But if we can clear out some of the dead wood from earlier summer sprees, the team could really use a scoring winger and a mobile, physical 2nd paring D to complement Juolevi and Hughes.
I think the biggest move of the off season would be to sit down with Loui Eriksson and explain to him that he is going to get waived and sent down to Utica in October 2019. So unless he is keen on riding the bus from Utica to Syracuse, Rochester, Hershey, Portland, etc. and sitting in the press box many nights due to the AHL veteran rule, he should consider collecting his July 1 signing bonus of $4M and just retire. Or maybe manufacture a career ending injury and spend the next few years on Robidas Island.
The one thing we also have to be cognizant of going forward is that we have a pending cap liability in the form or Luongo's salary cap recapture penalty. Basically, if Luongo retires after this season (unlikely unless he is injured again) the cap penalty is $2.8M for 3 years. If he retires after the 2019-20 season it is $4.2M for 2 years and if he retires following the 2020-21 season it's $8.5M for 1 year. Of course there is always the chance that rather than allowing him to retire in Florida (where he wants to be) we could trade to acquire him as either a backup (to Demko?) or put him on IR for 1 or 2 seasons. Unfortunately the years of Luongo's cap penalty also line up with the bridge / second contracts for Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes (if we burn a year off his ELC). This period also line up the the most likely contract term for any summer UFA contract.
And while on the subject of longer term considerations - Seattle expansion draft?
to help them defensively.
