Speculation: 2018 Off-Season: We fell short again... now what do we do?

[Todd1a]

I've seen the long and beautiful post written by @Stammertime91 .
Congrats to him.
But I've a (maybe stupid) question: he's written that, with EK, Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, next year, we've a cap hit, more or less, that will be 92+ mln.
What will it happen if Tampa goes over the limit of the cap? Is there a luxury tax, like in NBA? And what's the amount of this tax?

no it's a hard salary cap you have to be under the cap in october after october you can go over with ltir if you have players injuried

 

[Fabiobest]

no it's a hard salary cap you have to be under the cap in october after october you can go over with ltir if you have players injuried

Ah ok, so the situation is different from the NBA for example. Thanks for your answer

 

[These Are The Days]

1. From a salary cap perspective the most obvious thing is to try and get rid of Callahan's contract. And that's a really tough nut to crack. I really don't know how we'd get it done. Are there even any teams looking to reach the cap floor? He's signed until the end of 2019-20 and on LTIR for the next 4 months at least. Once he comes back he's $5.8M for a 3/4R role player.
2. I could actually see Johnson waiving his NTC. He's not one of the go-to guys anymore, has a safe contract at 6 years remaining and might even be looking for a fresh start somewhere else. Yzerman will be happy to consider his preferred destinations during trade talks.
3. According to capfriendly Killorn's NTC doesn't kick in until June 2020. Get 'er done, Steve!
4. Gourde will be tough to re-sign after next season, might as well flip him right now at high value. But that will rip a deep hole in our lineup and I don't see anybody within the org able to fill that gap (hard forecheck, relentlessness, etc.).

At least two of these four options arguably have to happen in order to land EK though.

And what do we do after 2018-19? Kuch and Point will be up for new contracts, Serg and Vasi the year after. And with Strals, Coburn and G three regulars on the blueline will have their contracts expire after 2018-19. Yikes.

I hate being that guy but it's showing me that 2020 is when his M-NTC kicks in and his NTC is at large and active right now

 

[HoseEmDown]

I've seen the long and beautiful post written by @Stammertime91 .
Congrats to him.
But I've a (maybe stupid) question: he's written that, with EK, Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, next year, we've a cap hit, more or less, that will be 92+ mln.
What will it happen if Tampa goes over the limit of the cap? Is there a luxury tax, like in NBA? And what's the amount of this tax?

What is this crap. I wrote a just as long and beautiful post like that on page 58 and you didn't congratulate me? His post is unrealistic as we are 10mil over the cap, mine had us within 2mil with some wiggle room to get under, you should read it and switch out Tavares for Karlsson so it makes sense.

 

[Fabiobest]

What is this crap. I wrote a just as long and beautiful post like that on page 58 and you didn't congratulate me? His post is unrealistic as we are 10mil over the cap, mine had us within 2mil with some wiggle room to get under, you should read it and switch out Tavares for Karlsson so it makes sense.

Eh I'm sorry but I didn't remeber your post and only today I've thought about our situation if we'll pass the cap limit.
Sorry

 

[Fabiobest]

About your post @HoseEmDown ...I hope Kucherov will ask less than 10 mln, next year...but I'm not sure about that...And also Point I think he'll ask 5-6 mlns if he repreats the good season he played this year.
Another thing: our third line would represent a risk cause we'll have 3 rookies (Volkov, Stephens an Joseph) and I don't know if this situation is possible.
But the initial question is the same... 2 or 10 mlns over the cap does not change it.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Eh I'm sorry but I didn't remeber your post and only today I've thought about our situation if we'll pass the cap limit.
Sorry

Well you should go read it on page 58, trust me once you do you'll never forget it again.

 

[HoseEmDown]

About your post @HoseEmDown ...I hope Kucherov will ask less than 10 mln, next year...but I'm not sure about that...And also Point I think he'll ask 5-6 mlns if he repreats the good season he played this year.
Another thing: our third line would represent a risk cause we'll have 3 rookies (Volkov, Stephens an Joseph) and I don't know if this situation is possible.
But the initial question is the same... 2 or 10 mlns over the cap does not change it.

Kucherov had back to back 60 point seasons and took 4.7 for 3 years. If Point repeats he has similar two years, his rookie year was better than Kucherov. Give him a 2 year deal not 3 and he takes less so 4.5-5. He can cash in sooner that way. No way he gets 6 on a bridge deal and we bridge everyone.

That rookie line was actually the 4th line so we wouldn't be relying on them that much and we could also move one or two of them up and someone else down to spread the youth around. We are 2mil over but that's with Paquette on the roster, move him out and that's close to 1mil free. Callahan probably starts the year injured so we have room to be under for awhile. We could buy him out and have 3+ mil free too. We could fit Karlsson without tearing the entire team down.

 

[Fabiobest]

Kucherov had back to back 60 point seasons and took 4.7 for 3 years. If Point repeats he has similar two years, his rookie year was better than Kucherov. Give him a 2 year deal not 3 and he takes less so 4.5-5. He can cash in sooner that way. No way he gets 6 on a bridge deal and we bridge everyone.

That rookie line was actually the 4th line so we wouldn't be relying on them that much and we could also move one or two of them up and someone else down to spread the youth around. We are 2mil over but that's with Paquette on the roster, move him out and that's close to 1mil free. Callahan probably starts the year injured so we have room to be under for awhile. We could buy him out and have 3+ mil free too. We could fit Karlsson without tearing the entire team down.

It's an interesting idea, no doubt about it. I'd like to see a guy like Volkov, for example, to play in our roster (I've seen him in the last pre season and he seems very good).
It'll be a great roster if you'll be right and in that way, we can see also EK playing at Amalie Arena.
The biggest problem in your roster is called Tyler Johnson. Let's see if he'll go away.
We'll se what Yzerman wants to do...I hope this story will end very soon.

 

[These Are The Days]

To be fair I don't see us giving Karlsson and Kucherov a whole lot more than $9 million AAV. As players they always have the option to take a front loaded contract.

Example: Karlsson 7 years $63 million

1 $12 million
2 $12 million
3 $12 million
4 $9 million
5 $6 million
6 $6 million
7 $6 million

Kucherov 8 years $72 million

1 $12 million
2 $12 million
3 $12 million
4 $12 million
5 $9 million
6 $5 million
7 $5 million
8 $5 million

This kind of structure is very doable for us and makes them amongst the highest paid players in the league -not to mention Karlsson will match Doughty's salary with this structure. Niether will surpass the gluttony of Toews/Kane's deal or McDavid but it is a very fair and competitive wage for today's NHL. Both men will also take home a bare minimum of $21 million in their first 3 seasons.

This is one of those haterade tax break moments that work in our favor and if Yzerman uses it well we will be able to pay the best players in the league arguably the best money. And with Karlsson on the Lightning I don't see how we don't win a Cup.

 

[HoseEmDown]

It's an interesting idea, no doubt about it. I'd like to see a guy like Volkov, for example, to play in our roster (I've seen him in the last pre season and he seems very good).
It'll be a great roster if you'll be right and in that way, we can see also EK playing at Amalie Arena.
The biggest problem in your roster is called Tyler Johnson. Let's see if he'll go away.
We'll se what Yzerman wants to do...I hope this story will end very soon.

Players have waived a NTC before, it's not impossible to move him. He's from the Pacific Northwest, San Jose will be losing Thornton as he will probably retire after next year. He makes 5mil this year so does Johnson. They have centers but could probably use a RW. We would have to take a weaker return on him but freeing up 5mil might be worth it.

 

[Fabiobest]

Players have waived a NTC before, it's not impossible to move him. He's from the Pacific Northwest, San Jose will be losing Thornton as he will probably retire after next year. He makes 5mil this year so does Johnson. They have centers but could probably use a RW. We would have to take a weaker return on him but freeing up 5mil might be worth it.

It makes sense. SJ is also a good team so maybe it's not too difficult that Johnson will accept the trade.
Maybe SJ will give some picks or a couple of prospects in return to TJ and it'd be not bad.

 

[These Are The Days]

Players have waived a NTC before, it's not impossible to move him. He's from the Pacific Northwest, San Jose will be losing Thornton as he will probably retire after next year. He makes 5mil this year so does Johnson. They have centers but could probably use a RW. We would have to take a weaker return on him but freeing up 5mil might be worth it.

Well shit brother. All we gotta do is wait for Seattle to come along and snatch him up

 

[DFC]

Long post incoming

Currently:
JT Miller($5.25M) – Stamkos($8.5M) – Kucherov($4.7M)
Palat($5.3M) – Point($686K) – Gourde($1M)
Killorn($4.45M) – Cirelli(728K) – Johnson($5M)
Erne($1M*) – Paquette($1M*) – Callahan($5.8M)
Andreoff($677K)

Hedman($7.875) – Stralman($4.5M)
McDonagh($4.7M) – Sergachev($894K)
Coburn($3.7M) – Girardi($3M)
Vasy($3.5M)
Domingue($1.15M)

Carle’s dumb ass($1.833M)
Total space left after giving Erne and Paq 1M cap hits: 2,450,000

That’s prior to anything happening with the exception of Erne and Paquette returning. While I’m doing this I am wondering if Coburn is moved as well. His clause allows him to be moved at the moment. We cant really bring on Karlsson even if we give up Sergachev AND Gourde as we would still be over the cap. We would have to clear a few more million. Coburn could help alleviate that with the difference of Slater taking his place.

It’s too wide open as to what could be moved but I think the reasonable “starting points” from our organization would be Sergachev and Foote. Foote with a roster player and more but again, its too wide open and with everybody and their mothers on NTCs it complicates it as we have discussed. I will remove Callahan as that is a possibility, remove Coburn and Girardi and “resign” the following; [adding Karlsson], Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Stralman (basing off of age, Coburn resigning and his play this past season), Koekkoek (providing he can play on a bottom pairing), Dotchin (possibly replaced by Cernak). I will go with rookies to fill out where its needed.

JT Miller($5.25) – Stamkos($8.5M) – Kucherov($11M)
Palat($5.3M) – Point($5.25M) – Gourde($4.75)
Killorn($4.45M) – Cirelli(728K) – Johnson($5M)
Volkov($864K)– Paquette($1M) – Joseph($728K)
[insert depth for ~$750K]

Hedman($7.875) – Karlsson($11.5M)
McDonagh($6.75) – Stralman($4.35M)
Koekkoek($1M*) – Cernak($698K)
Masin($1M*)

Vasy($3.5M)
Domingue($1.15M)

Carle’s dumb ass ($1.833M)
Cap hit: 93,226,000

Without listing a bunch of possibilities, we are still way over the cap. We would need to somehow move Gourde AND one of Johnson or Palat and hope somehow we come in under what I have here. I gave flat $1M cap hits to Paquette, Masin and KK as “worst case” scenarios with them being that much. Maybe save around 250k if they went less. If the cap goes up lets say 4M, we would still about 10M over. You’re talking about losing Gourde and one of Killorn, Johnson or Palat. Can we afford to lose two 25x25(at minimum) guys for Erik Karlsson? Unless I’ve butchered this, we look to be sacrificing two middle 6 players (and replacing with no experience ELCs) for him. Would rather hang onto Sergachev if this is the case and have Hedman, Stralman, McD and Serg and keep Gourde/Johnson and not have to lose both and possibly ice limited experience players in the bottom half of our defense. Unless guys take discounts, or I’ve done something horribly wrong, I don’t really care for this option looking at it closer.

We could get by this year and look at moving Johnson, Palat or Killorn next summer but without having to ice 3 ELCs on the blueline, Stralman, Karlsson, Kucherov, Point and the lower cap hit guys would have to come in even lower. Yzerman is good but he's not God and we aren't going to have everybody sign for a dollar cause the weather is nice. I think we jeopardize size in moving Palat, consistency in Killorn, grit in Gourde and goals in Johnson by having to move 2 of them and hope Katchouk, Raddysh, Joseph, etc can step into their places. Its a risk at the expense of having Erik Karlsson. Worth it? I don't know.

To me, the moves look like Gourde and Miller. Everything else is almost impossible, but in your projection, and I think those numbers are pretty realistic, that clears about 10m. But we'd have to move both of them this summer, because Gourde is a pending UFA, and because Miller's NTC will kick in. (Or we keep Gourde and let him walk; but I'd rather include him in a deal than a top prospect, just because we're gonna lose him anyway.)

The one number that I think is high is Karlsson. If he's coming here, he's gonna have to take a discount. But he should get his lost money back after taxes. And, if it's true we're his preferred destination, I think we could expect him to sign an 8 year deal for somewhere closer to 10.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Well **** brother. All we gotta do is wait for Seattle to come along and snatch him up

One year too late unfortunately.

 

[HoseEmDown]

It makes sense. SJ is also a good team so maybe it's not too difficult that Johnson will accept the trade.
Maybe SJ will give some picks or a couple of prospects in return to TJ and it'd be not bad.

I'd be interested in LeBanc for Johnson, maybe get a 3rd thrown in. If we move Gourde I can see LeBanc filling that role and we can throw Joseph into the Johnson spot.

 

[DFC]

Players have waived a NTC before, it's not impossible to move him. He's from the Pacific Northwest, San Jose will be losing Thornton as he will probably retire after next year. He makes 5mil this year so does Johnson. They have centers but could probably use a RW. We would have to take a weaker return on him but freeing up 5mil might be worth it.

Players waive NTCs to come here. They don't waive NTCs to leave. It took Yzerman three trades to get Filppula off the team.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Players waive NTCs to come here. They don't waive NTCs to leave. It took Yzerman three trades to get Filppula off the team.

People seem to like San Jose too and he's from Washington so not too far away. I believe he does some charity games in Washington in the offseason wo he might still have a place out there. I'm not trying to send him to Arizona or Ottawa.

 

[These Are The Days]

Gourde is hard to figure out. If he is to be retained it's difficult to determine what the most we could pay him is

 

[Fabiobest]

I'd be interested in LeBanc for Johnson, maybe get a 3rd thrown in. If we move Gourde I can see LeBanc filling that role and we can throw Joseph into the Johnson spot.

He's a very interesting player for real.
I'm curious to see also Volkov with us: I hope Yzerman won't trade him.
But, in your opinion...when will we have some news about Karlsson? I hope this story won't finish too late.

 

[Leonardo87]

Players waive NTCs to come here. They don't waive NTCs to leave. It took Yzerman three trades to get Filppula off the team.

Is the plan to move Callahan now or next year? Like to see him get one more cup run with Tampa, then I think all bets are off if they fall short again, and think not just him will be moving at that point so really won't matter. Like I said in the main forum, going back to the Rangers makes sense, they were about to overpay for a leader grit type guy in a Leo Komarov, which is needed with all their young guys coming up next season. If Tampa needs to move Cally out so bad, they can attach a B prospect and/or picks, and at least the Rangers are getting something else and not just an overpaid player. But does not really matter since they have the cap to take it on now. But think Callahan is still better than Komarov or a Reaves which they both passed on those contracts. Dodged a bullet more like it.

 

[DFC]

Is the plan to move Callahan now or next year? Like to see him get one more cup run with Tampa, then I think all bets are off if they fall short again, and think not just him will be moving at that point so really won't matter. Like I said in the main forum, going back to the Rangers makes sense, they were about to overpay for a leader grit type guy in a Leo Komarov, which is needed with all their young guys coming up next season. If Tampa needs to move Cally out so bad, they can attach a B prospect and/or picks, and at least they are getting something else and not just an overpaid player. But does not really matter since they have the cap to take it on now. But think Callahan is still better than Komarov or a Reaves which they both passed on those contracts. Dodged a bullet more like it.

As much as we fans might want to see the money off the books, I don't think Yzerman pulls the trigger until he absolutely needs the money, both because I think they like Callahan on the team and because they don't want to pay the prospect it would cost to move him.

 

[Leonardo87]

As much as we fans might want to see the money off the books, I don't think Yzerman pulls the trigger until he absolutely needs the money, both because I think they like Callahan on the team and because they don't want to pay the prospect it would cost to move him.

Well I think the same reason the Rangers would like to have him, is the same reason Yzerman will try to keep him around if he can. I thought he had an inspiring playoff run, especially in the ECF, and that has to sit well with Yzerman, but I understand if Tampa hits a wall with the cap, I do expect him to be moved. Will suck but it's a business. Just hope he can go back home if it comes to that.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

If Seattle has the same rules for expansion, then what happens when we have more players with NTC's than allowed to protect?

 

[DFC]

I'll bet Gourde would have a hell of a lot of value in a sign-and-trade. What about a signed Gourde as part of a deal for a signed Karlsson? Maybe that keeps us from paying Sergachev.