Speculation: 2018 Off-Season: We fell short again... now what do we do?

[Stammertime91]

I think he gets more than 4.5 if he has close to the season he just had. Keep in mind his gonna be a UFA. T his isn't a bridge situation. A guy who's roughly 30-30 makes a lot of money on the open market these days.

The other thing: No NTC.

If we acquire Erik Karlsson, it's not gonna be painless. The one thing with Gourde though is, maybe Ottawa doesn't want a guy not locked down, considering the way guys are fleeing. So maybe Miller, locked down for 5 years, with an NTC that hasn't kicked in yet, would be more attractive. But I'd bet, if Gourde's not in the deal, we're probably giving up Sergachev. It's Erik Karlsson, after all, presumably with a contract in place.

All that said, if we do acquire Karlsson, I don't think we'll be able to keep Gourde. We'll have so much money tied up in EK, 77, 91, 86, and then 21.

While I tend to agree I just think that would be a mistake. Gourde is more important than Johnson at the moment. That's arguable and simply just my opinion but his forecheck is relentless, much like Johnson when he first came up. I figure Gourde will probably hit 50 points. At 27, I don't think he will go the max or fetch the going rate. I really dont. I see him as the kind of guy who is happy here and likes his spot on the team. Just a hunch so I'm not going off of anything concrete so feel free to Hose me. I just feel like he would fall around Killorn's pay for about 4 years. He strikes me as the kind of guy that's grateful for an opportunity and wouldn't grab the UFA rate over staying on a team like Tampa where you play a pretty big part.

There's also the option that we get rid of Callahan as well. If there was any way to make it where you're coming down to a Gourde vs Johnson decision, I am taking Gourde. I like Johnson but I think his game is expendable if theres a way to move him.

 

[Todd1a]

I think he gets more than 4.5 if he has close to the season he just had. Keep in mind his gonna be a UFA. T his isn't a bridge situation. A guy who's roughly 30-30 makes a lot of money on the open market these days.

The other thing: No NTC.

If we acquire Erik Karlsson, it's not gonna be painless. The one thing with Gourde though is, maybe Ottawa doesn't want a guy not locked down, considering the way guys are fleeing. So maybe Miller, locked down for 5 years, with an NTC that hasn't kicked in yet, would be more attractive. But I'd bet, if Gourde's not in the deal, we're probably giving up Sergachev. It's Erik Karlsson, after all, presumably with a contract in place.

All that said, if we do acquire Karlsson, I don't think we'll be able to keep Gourde. We'll have so much money tied up in EK, 77, 91, 86, and then 21.

Miller is the only guy we can move out with having no ntc yet your right. But for a signed karlsson Ottawa is going to want like foote, Miller a 1st and a 2nd. And I’m so sorry JT Miller man he is going to be so pissed I’d rather ditch killorn lol

 

[Stammertime91]

Isn't Johnson's NTC full? It's way beyond unlikely that we're moving him, or even could if we were desperate. We're probably at a point where moving Callahan would be easier.

I believe so. Callahan would be much easier to move. If this was Dallas or New Jersey where it was a bubble team or playoff team, I think moving Johnson wouldn't take much but seeing as Melnyk and Dorion have gutted that team and look to continue doing so, I'm not sure if Johnson is interested in becoming a top 6 player playing with Duchene where he's seeing Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Hedman, etc nightly and playing in May. Then again, I keep in mind what Yzerman did for him by meeting with him, having interest in him and giving him a contract. As much as I would like to believe he'd waive, he does have a NTC for a reason and I don't think he would return the favor and be as generous. Moving and wasting years in the basement after coming so close multiple times is a hard sell.

I believe Callahan would take mid draft pick and a decent prospect to move. There's two years left and teams have taken on and buried worse contracts in the past.

 

[DFC]

While I tend to agree I just think that would be a mistake. Gourde is more important than Johnson at the moment. That's arguable and simply just my opinion but his forecheck is relentless, much like Johnson when he first came up. I figure Gourde will probably hit 50 points. At 27, I don't think he will go the max or fetch the going rate. I really dont. I see him as the kind of guy who is happy here and likes his spot on the team. Just a hunch so I'm not going off of anything concrete so feel free to Hose me. I just feel like he would fall around Killorn's pay for about 4 years. He strikes me as the kind of guy that's grateful for an opportunity and wouldn't grab the UFA rate over staying on a team like Tampa where you play a pretty big part.

There's also the option that we get rid of Callahan as well. If there was any way to make it where you're coming down to a Gourde vs Johnson decision, I am taking Gourde. I like Johnson but I think his game is expendable if theres a way to move him.

There's no way to move Johnson. Asking him to waive is asking him to take a paycut. If we'd had any intention of moving him, it would have happened before July 1. So this isn't about Johnson vs. Gourde. This is about how do we come up with the money to pay Point, Kucherov, Gourde, AND Karlsson??? Bringing in Karlsson, presumably a > $9m salary, changes things. We were probably gonna need a move or two anyway, without adding Karlsson. If one of those players is the odd man out, it's Gourde. And that's after we let players walk and move some salary.

 

[Stammertime91]

There's no way to move Johnson. Asking him to waive is asking him to take a paycut. If we'd had any intention of moving him, it would have happened before July 1. So this isn't about Johnson vs. Gourde. This is about how do we come up with the money to pay Point, Kucherov, Gourde, AND Karlsson??? Bringing in Karlsson, presumably a > $9m salary, changes things. We were probably gonna need a move or two anyway, without adding Karlsson. If one of those players is the odd man out, it's Gourde. And that's after we let players walk and move some salary.

Johnson is able to waive the NTC, is he not?

You're really tempting me now to crunch the numbers and see what is doable and what isnt.

f***ing Callahan man. If this guy was gone he would make so many scenarios so much easier.

Edit: There's gotta be somebody willing to take a prospect, pick and him.

 

[DFC]

I believe so. Callahan would be much easier to move. If this was Dallas or New Jersey where it was a bubble team or playoff team, I think moving Johnson wouldn't take much but seeing as Melnyk and Dorion have gutted that team and look to continue doing so, I'm not sure if Johnson is interested in becoming a top 6 player playing with Duchene where he's seeing Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Hedman, etc nightly and playing in May. Then again, I keep in mind what Yzerman did for him by meeting with him, having interest in him and giving him a contract. As much as I would like to believe he'd waive, he does have a NTC for a reason and I don't think he would return the favor and be as generous. Moving and wasting years in the basement after coming so close multiple times is a hard sell.

I believe Callahan would take mid draft pick and a decent prospect to move. There's two years left and teams have taken on and buried worse contracts in the past.

Moving Callahan means we can pay Brayden Point. Letting Girardi and Coburn walk means we can pay Nikita Kucherov. Now we need Karlsson money. More moves. And now Gourde.

We have too many NTCs to move the amount of money we'd need to move.

 

[DFC]

Johnson is able to waive the NTC, is he not?

You're really tempting me now to crunch the numbers and see what is doable and what isnt.

****ing Callahan man. If this guy was gone he would make so many scenarios so much easier.

Edit: There's gotta be somebody willing to take a prospect, pick and him.

Why would Johnson waive a NTC? What team that needs him would give him a better shot to win the cup AND not cut his take home pay? If Yzerman makes that happen, he's beyond jedi, but I just see no incentive whatsoever for the player to waive.

 

[Stammertime91]

Why would Johnson waive a NTC? What team that needs him would give him a better shot to win the cup AND not cut his take home pay? If Yzerman makes that happen, he's beyond jedi, but I just see no incentive whatsoever for the player to waive.

Ok. So what if he's not going to Ottawa and in the off season the destination is a bubble team? If Palat plays a full year and Gourde repeats this, Johnson is looking at 3rd line minutes.

I'm getting on the computer machine right now and doing this. Will bring back my report card for you to oversee shortly.

AND IT'S GOING TO HAVE LAUREL GOURDE OR ALL HOPE IS GONE DAMN IT

 

[DFC]

Ok. So what if he's not going to Ottawa and in the off season the destination is a bubble team? If Palat plays a full year and Gourde repeats this, Johnson is looking at 3rd line minutes.

I'm getting on the computer machine right now and doing this. Will bring back my report card for you to oversee shortly.

AND IT'S GOING TO HAVE LAUREL GOURDE OR ALL HOPE IS GONE DAMN IT

I just don't think trading Johnson is realistic. I doubt he's all that unhappy about being a tweener on a stacked team, with no state income tax, whose cup window is wide open for the foreseeable future.

I'm not saying it's impossible to keep Gourde past next year. I just think it'll be really tough. And we're talking about making a major, major trade when like 90% of our valuable pieces have NTCs.

 

[Sky04]

Why would Johnson waive a NTC? What team that needs him would give him a better shot to win the cup AND not cut his take home pay? If Yzerman makes that happen, he's beyond jedi, but I just see no incentive whatsoever for the player to waive.

Not exactly Jedi mind tricks to tell someone they're not wanted on the team, you're making it seem a lot more difficult then it is when all it really comes down to is people being valued.

Very few players have declined to waive their NTC's when asked and even if declined they were eventually moved soon after. Why? once the request is brought up it essentially means the team sees you as a expendable, it's not healthy for the player or the locker room to know the team is looking to move you and you're being a roadblock even if it's in your right.

Would you work at a more pretigious company for more pay where you're just another number and are quickly expendable? Or would you prefer to work at a company that sees value in you and you have more leeway? Tampa is quickly becoming a numbers team where people who aren't playing up to valuation need to be moved out and are quickly under fire, there are plenty of other teams who see more value in Johnson then we do, and that's really all that comes down to sometimes.

The hardest part about moving Johnson will be Yzerman having to make the ask, I'm sure he'd consider taking Johnson's preferred teams of interests in mind when doing so if he had to. But I don't think Johnson waiving will be that hard, although I still think we move Killorn/Callahan first.

 

[Sky04]

Callahan was hard to move because of his roots/family in the NY area, those teams were cap crunched before, after this off-season both New York teams, New Jersey and Buffalo have all freed up a considerable amount of capspace which is a good sign for us.

 

[Stammertime91]

Long post incoming

Currently:
JT Miller($5.25M) – Stamkos($8.5M) – Kucherov($4.7M)
Palat($5.3M) – Point($686K) – Gourde($1M)
Killorn($4.45M) – Cirelli(728K) – Johnson($5M)
Erne($1M*) – Paquette($1M*) – Callahan($5.8M)
Andreoff($677K)

Hedman($7.875) – Stralman($4.5M)
McDonagh($4.7M) – Sergachev($894K)
Coburn($3.7M) – Girardi($3M)
Vasy($3.5M)
Domingue($1.15M)

Carle’s dumb ass($1.833M)
Total space left after giving Erne and Paq 1M cap hits: 2,450,000

That’s prior to anything happening with the exception of Erne and Paquette returning. While I’m doing this I am wondering if Coburn is moved as well. His clause allows him to be moved at the moment. We cant really bring on Karlsson even if we give up Sergachev AND Gourde as we would still be over the cap. We would have to clear a few more million. Coburn could help alleviate that with the difference of Slater taking his place.

It’s too wide open as to what could be moved but I think the reasonable “starting points” from our organization would be Sergachev and Foote. Foote with a roster player and more but again, its too wide open and with everybody and their mothers on NTCs it complicates it as we have discussed. I will remove Callahan as that is a possibility, remove Coburn and Girardi and “resign” the following; [adding Karlsson], Kucherov, Gourde, Point, Stralman (basing off of age, Coburn resigning and his play this past season), Koekkoek (providing he can play on a bottom pairing), Dotchin (possibly replaced by Cernak). I will go with rookies to fill out where its needed.

JT Miller($5.25) – Stamkos($8.5M) – Kucherov($11M)
Palat($5.3M) – Point($5.25M) – Gourde($4.75)
Killorn($4.45M) – Cirelli(728K) – Johnson($5M)
Volkov($864K)– Paquette($1M) – Joseph($728K)
[insert depth for ~$750K]

Hedman($7.875) – Karlsson($11.5M)
McDonagh($6.75) – Stralman($4.35M)
Koekkoek($1M*) – Cernak($698K)
Masin($1M*)

Vasy($3.5M)
Domingue($1.15M)

Carle’s dumb ass ($1.833M)
Cap hit: 93,226,000

Without listing a bunch of possibilities, we are still way over the cap. We would need to somehow move Gourde AND one of Johnson or Palat and hope somehow we come in under what I have here. I gave flat $1M cap hits to Paquette, Masin and KK as “worst case” scenarios with them being that much. Maybe save around 250k if they went less. If the cap goes up lets say 4M, we would still about 10M over. You’re talking about losing Gourde and one of Killorn, Johnson or Palat. Can we afford to lose two 25x25(at minimum) guys for Erik Karlsson? Unless I’ve butchered this, we look to be sacrificing two middle 6 players (and replacing with no experience ELCs) for him. Would rather hang onto Sergachev if this is the case and have Hedman, Stralman, McD and Serg and keep Gourde/Johnson and not have to lose both and possibly ice limited experience players in the bottom half of our defense. Unless guys take discounts, or I’ve done something horribly wrong, I don’t really care for this option looking at it closer.

We could get by this year and look at moving Johnson, Palat or Killorn next summer but without having to ice 3 ELCs on the blueline, Stralman, Karlsson, Kucherov, Point and the lower cap hit guys would have to come in even lower. Yzerman is good but he's not God and we aren't going to have everybody sign for a dollar cause the weather is nice. I think we jeopardize size in moving Palat, consistency in Killorn, grit in Gourde and goals in Johnson by having to move 2 of them and hope Katchouk, Raddysh, Joseph, etc can step into their places. Its a risk at the expense of having Erik Karlsson. Worth it? I don't know.

 

[Stammertime91]

I believe Conacher is included above I just forgot to list him and i cant remember his cap hit.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Our current situation:

Player	Terms	Age	cap hit 2018-19	years left after 2018-19
Stamkos	NMC	28	8.50	5
Callahan	M-NTC	33	5.80	1 (UFA)
Palat	NTC	27	5.30	3
Miller		25	5.25	4
Johnson	NTC	27	5.00	5
Kucherov		25	4.76	0 (RFA)
Killorn	NTC	28	4.45	4
Gourde		26	1.00	0 (UFA)
Point	ELC	22	0.69	0 (RFA)
Andreoff		27	0.68	0 (UFA)
Conacher		28	0.65	0 (UFA)
Erne		23	RFA
Paquette		24	RFA
Hedman	NMC	27	7.85	6
McDonagh	M-NTC	29	4.70	6
Stralman	M-NTC	31	4.50	0 (UFA)
Coburn	M-NTC	33	3.70	0 (UFA)
Girardi	NTC	34	3.00	0 (UFA)
Sergachev	ELC	20	0.89	1 (RFA)
Koekkoek		24	0.87	0 (RFA)
Dotchin		24	0.81	0 (RFA)
Vasilevskiy		23	3.50	1 (RFA)
Domingue		26	1.15	1 (UFA)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Carle buyout: $1.833.333 (1 year left after 2018-19)

Current cap space: $4.446.220


NTCs are interesting:

Callahan has to submit a 16 team trade list.
Palat has to submit a 20 team trade list.
Johnson has a full NTC until 2021 (20 team trade list afterwards).
Killorn's NTC kicks in in 2020 (20 team trade list afterwards).
McDonagh has to submit a 10 team NO-trade list.
Stralman has to submit a 16 team trade list.
Coburn has to submit a 16 team trade list.
Girardi no idea, it just says NTC.

 

[Stammertime91]

Gotta deduct 2M for Erne and Paquette if they both resign for more than we would like. We would be at around 2.5M remaining.

 

[Maelmoor]

I cannot see how we could take Karlsson? Would be another 8 year contract with a NTC as well, starting to get nervous about them all..but I've been wrong before

 

[Stammertime91]

I cannot see how we could take Karlsson? Would be another 8 year contract with a NTC as well, starting to get nervous about them all..but I've been wrong before

We would need to move Callahan, and two of TJ, Palat, Killorn and Gourde in order to resign them all. And that's being conservative and fortunate if Kuch and a potential EK on the roster not going more than 11 and 11.5 respectively.

 

[Maelmoor]

We would need to move Callahan, and two of TJ, Palat, Killorn and Gourde in order to resign them all. And that's being conservative and fortunate if Kuch and a potential EK on the roster not going more than 11 and 11.5 respectively.

Yeah, I just don't see it happening but we will see!

 

[LightningStrikes]

We would need to move Callahan, and two of TJ, Palat, Killorn and Gourde in order to resign them all. And that's being conservative and fortunate if Kuch and a potential EK on the roster not going more than 11 and 11.5 respectively.

1. From a salary cap perspective the most obvious thing is to try and get rid of Callahan's contract. And that's a really tough nut to crack. I really don't know how we'd get it done. Are there even any teams looking to reach the cap floor? He's signed until the end of 2019-20 and on LTIR for the next 4 months at least. Once he comes back he's $5.8M for a 3/4R role player.
2. I could actually see Johnson waiving his NTC. He's not one of the go-to guys anymore, has a safe contract at 6 years remaining and might even be looking for a fresh start somewhere else. Yzerman will be happy to consider his preferred destinations during trade talks.
3. According to capfriendly Killorn's NTC doesn't kick in until June 2020. Get 'er done, Steve!
4. Gourde will be tough to re-sign after next season, might as well flip him right now at high value. But that will rip a deep hole in our lineup and I don't see anybody within the org able to fill that gap (hard forecheck, relentlessness, etc.).

At least two of these four options arguably have to happen in order to land EK though.

And what do we do after 2018-19? Kuch and Point will be up for new contracts, Serg and Vasi the year after. And with Strals, Coburn and G three regulars on the blueline will have their contracts expire after 2018-19. Yikes.

 

[Stammertime91]

1. From a salary cap perspective the most obvious thing is to try and get rid of Callahan's contract. And that's a really tough nut to crack. I really don't know how we'd get it done. Are there even any teams looking to reach the cap floor? He's signed until the end of 2019-20 and on LTIR for the next 4 months at least. Once he comes back he's $5.8M for a 3/4R role player.
2. I could actually see Johnson waiving his NTC. He's not one of the go-to guys anymore, has a safe contract at 6 years remaining and might even be looking for a fresh start somewhere else. Yzerman will be happy to consider his preferred destinations during trade talks.
3. According to capfriendly Killorn's NTC doesn't kick in until June 2020. Get 'er done, Steve!
4. Gourde will be tough to re-sign after next season, might as well flip him right now at high value. But that will rip a deep hole in our lineup and I don't see anybody within the org able to fill that gap (hard forecheck, relentlessness, etc.).

At least two of these four options arguably have to happen in order to land EK though.

And what do we do after 2018-19? Kuch and Point will be up for new contracts, Serg and Vasi the year after. And with Strals, Coburn and G three regulars on the blueline will have their contracts expire after 2018-19. Yikes.

1. Doable. Without checking the every teams situation im sure there's at least one but it is indeed a tough sell but if you tack on a B prospect that probably won't crack our lineup within 2-3 years, its worth moving him.

2. I think most of these guys with NTCs like Sky even mentioned would waive if it came down to it. Why hinder the teams chances and be the guy that blocks your teammates from getting better. Eventually guys like Johnson, Palat and Killorn will be on the outside looking in and will have to be moved. Something to keep in mind is the personal relationship Yzerman and Cooper have with these guys. That Johnson article before playoffs started shows the gratitude he had for Yzerman going to meet him. While I don't think "he owes us one," I do think the group of guys we have realize Vinik, Yzerman and Cooper have done a lot to try to secure a cup and while we haven't, I don't think a guy like Johnson who was given a chance would block a trade. He's slowly moving down the depth chart. He went from top 6C, to almost our 1C, to 2nd liner, and now middle 6 winger. Gourde had a better season and this is the best season Johnson has had in a couple years. I don't think it would be a snap of the fingers to move him but at some point he may want a change of scenery.

3. Yeah I looked at that. It's actually a NTC and it turns modified in 2020-2021. Middle 6 guy who is constantly good for 15 goals. The five years remaining is a turn off but he is movable.

4. If we lose 2/4 of Killorn, Palat, Johnson and Gourde we are going to struggle. We were so deep this year and couldn't get it done, but removing a constant 40 points with two way play from Killorn, and 20-25 goals from Gourde/Johnson and solid two way play from Palat, I'm not sure who we can put in two positions to replace them. It's really risky throwing in two guys and hoping they pan out to replace whoever is gone. Moving Gourde doesn't make sense though. Moving him just because we can't resign him wouldn't secure bringing Karlsson here. Even when he resigns, he will probably be at Johnson's (hopefully less) and maybe around 4 years. He's also a year younger and gets to the dirty area. He's a much more important player right now than Johnson. We can keep him, hope he signs a shorter term and move Johnson's 5M/yr. Palat really needs to earn it this year.

Lastly, the defense is a nightmare if Karlsson comes here. We might not even be able to afford resigning Stralman unless players sign for less than I have above.

If I was Yzerman I'd look hard at Faulk. He can hit 15 goals, provide the mobility, we can keep Sergachev, Stralman and Gourde and move Johnson+ to get him. He's younger than McD and we could probably offer around the same contract as well.

Not to mention, acquiring Karlsson does not fix our size issue up front - of which we will not have any room to change if we got him.

In all honesty, I believe the best thing is if Vegas was a fluke this year by some weird chance and he goes there. I would love to have him here but I'd also love to roll three lines capable of scoring. We can still do that and acquire a RHD capable of moving the puck not named Erik Karlsson.

 

[Rschmitz]

We could probably get it done by just trading Coburn and including Erne in a package

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I can't believe you guys are still discussing Sergachev++ for Karlsson when we can have both as soon as next year.

 

[HoseEmDown]

On page 58 of this thread I laid out our cap breakdown the next two years if we signed Tavares. So just swap out the money for Tavares and give it to Karlsson, I had 9.5 so would need 1-1.5 not that bad. We would have to trade for him so money would go out to make it easier to fit cap wise. If we send Sergachev we don't take Ryan or they take Callahan back if they do, it would be a 3 way and they send Callahan somewhere else, send Gourde so we don't have to give him a raise and that goes to Point plus futures.

I like Sergachev and the fact he's like 8 years younger but if Karlsson is healthy he should be better for almost all those 8 years. Gourde is good and will be missed but it's a cap move, with others with a NTC they're harder to use so unfortunately for Gourde he goes. We have people to take his spot but we'll take a hit as they aren't putting up 60 next year. One of Coburn or Girardi for cap, Koekkoek since they wanted him in the past, a pick and a forward prospect.

If we moved out 3 defenders in this deal, Coburn, Sergachev and Koekkoek, we would need to add another as we would be a little thin, luckily for us Sustr is still unsigned and you don't make the ECF without a Sustr on your roster.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I can't believe you guys are still discussing Sergachev++ for Karlsson when we can have both as soon as next year.

Not if EK gets traded with an extention this summer.

 

[Fabiobest]

I've seen the long and beautiful post written by @Stammertime91 .
Congrats to him.
But I've a (maybe stupid) question: he's written that, with EK, Gourde, Johnson and Killorn, next year, we've a cap hit, more or less, that will be 92+ mln.
What will it happen if Tampa goes over the limit of the cap? Is there a luxury tax, like in NBA? And what's the amount of this tax?