Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Senators prospect watch part III

[Sens of Anarchy]

Mann would not have seen him much outside of video. It would have been our guy in Sweden/Europe that wanted him.

Mann would not be discovering unknown, unranked guys in Sweden. He was on the same team as Ebert, he likely was found when looking at him, which would have fallen under our pro scouting department in Europe. Not sure Mann was in Europe at all last season.

He’s 20 and in his 2nd season in the SHL, age and league shouldn’t be an issue. It was likely an injury.

It was an injury. There was a tweet on it somewhere.

 

[Xspyrit]

without counting the 2020 picks, how can we expect the forward depth chart to shape up in 2020-21?

Tkachuk-L.Brown-Batherson
Duclair-White-Balcers
C.Brown-Anisimov-Davidsson
Formenton-Norris-Abramov
Paul-Chlapik-Veronneau

But that's without the vets Tierney, Pageau and Ryan.

Tierney : has to be traded. Value at its highest, logjam coming up, I really don't see why they would keep him. Get some more picks and use them to move up in the draft or something.

Ryan : will only have 2 years left, 7.25 isn't that crazy today so if you retain let's say 2.25, he's definitely tradeable to a team who need a smart 0.55 PPG veteran forward. You won't get much in return, maybe a late pick and a aging player (with lower salary than cap; ex : Johnny Boychuk). This kind of trade requires creativity so very hard to give a concrete example but a 6th + Boychuk seems like one. JB has a 6.0 CH but is only owed 8.0 in the last 2 years of his contract with a 2.75 signing bonus. Looks like the perfect target for the Sens, would be a veteran D the Sens could use temporarily to give more to Thomson and JBD (like Hainsey this year). Isles save 1.0 in cap hit and get a younger player that might be more useful. They'll have some other forwards that they should target to trade/buy out though (Ladd)

I hope they don't trade Pageau, I think this guy will be an effective NHLer for a while and growing in his 30s like the Kellys, Drapers, Clearys, etc. He's versatile and can play Wing too so he can be moved around in the bottom-6, good veteran presence to have on top of being a fan favorite (huge in a market they still need to develop) and is a big game player to boot.

That has always been the knock on him & IMO always will be, he is not suddenly going to change his game completely. He has the size, the skill, the vision & the IQ to be a very good centre in the NHL, he just needs the right wingers to compliment his game on his line. Ottawa has had other centres with that same knock on their game like Yashin & Spezza & IMO Anisimov & Paul also play that way with a lack of aggression.

Finesse players are always under-appreciated because they look lazy or that they're not giving up a constant effort, a good example on the team Bobby Ryan. Being super fast would help that image but it's not the case for Spezza, Brown or Ryan. Big skilled guys look like that most of the time. Wheeler is another guy of that ilk but faster.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Mann would not have seen him much outside of video. It would have been our guy in Sweden/Europe that wanted him.

Mann would not be discovering unknown, unranked guys in Sweden. He was on the same team as Ebert, he likely was found when looking at him, which would have fallen under our pro scouting department in Europe. Not sure Mann was in Europe at all last season.

He’s 20 and in his 2nd season in the SHL, age and league shouldn’t be an issue. It was likely an injury.

Well, he only played 8:52 per game last season, including games of 5:32, 5:18, 3:14, and three games where he dressed as 13th forward but didn't play a minute.

And our new European scout, hired in 2017, Anders Ostberg was a scout for Örebro when they recruited Lodin from Leksands. He then became director of scouting for Örebro for a year before he took the job in Ottawa.

Also I wouldn't draw a distinction between pro and amateur scouting in Europe. We only have three European scouts, my understanding is they cover both pro and amateur ranks

 

[OD99]

Well, he only played 8:52 per game last season, including games of 5:32, 5:18, 3:14, and three games where he dressed as 13th forward but didn't play a minute.

And our new European scout, hired in 2017, Anders Ostberg was a scout for Örebro when they recruited Lodin from Leksands. He then became director of scouting for Örebro for a year before he took the job in Ottawa.

Also I wouldn't draw a distinction between pro and amateur scouting in Europe. We only have three European scouts, my understanding is they cover both pro and amateur ranks

Brutal pick no matter what. Could have been signed as a FA if we really wanted him...but why break with tradition when we seemingly throw away a draft pick each season.

Baffling part is how many late round gems they still come up with...

 

[MatchesMalone]

Brutal pick no matter what. Could have been signed as a FA if we really wanted him...but why break with tradition when we seemingly throw away a draft pick each season.

Baffling part is how many late round gems they still come up with...

It is a baffling pick for sure. I'm still not entirely convinced it is a terrible pick. Could be something we're missing as fans.

Strange that you don't see the incongruence in your viewpoint here. The way you come up with late round gems is precisely by taking risks on flawed players with upside before other teams do.

 

[OD99]

It is a baffling pick for sure. I'm still not entirely convinced it is a terrible pick. Could be something we're missing as fans.

Strange that you don't see the incongruence in your viewpoint here. The way you come up with late round gems is precisely by taking risks on flawed players with upside before other teams do.

It's a terrible pick when you can safely assume that player could have been had either much later in the draft or brought in for a PTO without using any draft pick.

Thought I did acknowledge the bizarre nature of it by noting our success in getting late round picks. I would argue that many of our late round picks that have turned in to a nice surprise were not completely out of left field and had some strong characteristics that could show their potential.

Stone, Hoffman, Batherson, Dzingle are the ones I quickly think of recently that panned out (Batherson still has to prove it) and each one had strong growth curve or some specific item that could be traced to a lower than expected output.

The ones that have disappeared never seemed to show any real signs of promise.

 

[MatchesMalone]

It's a terrible pick when you can safely assume that player could have been had either much later in the draft or brought in for a PTO without using any draft pick.

Thought I did acknowledge the bizarre nature of it by noting our success in getting late round picks. I would argue that many of our late round picks that have turned in to a nice surprise were not completely out of left field and had some strong characteristics that could show their potential.

Stone, Hoffman, Batherson, Dzingle are the ones I quickly think of recently that panned out (Batherson still has to prove it) and each one had strong growth curve or some specific item that could be traced to a lower than expected output.

The ones that have disappeared never seemed to show any real signs of promise.

I disagree with your premise that you or any fan has any idea what NHL GMs are going to do at a draft. I never understand this mentality. Do fans of every team think their team is the only one that "goes off the board"?

Every team does it sometimes, but the reason teams do it is a lot simpler than most fans and media think. Very straightforward and not complicated, and yet even in 2019 people still get this confused. The reason is... because there is no board to go off. If I had to pick a single hockey mantra or motto it would be: the only "final ranking" is the draft board. Whatever NHL teams pick is the board, so there's no such thing as going off the board.

The best scouts and hockey evaluators in the world are scouting for NHL teams, not independent scouting services. Every now and then a scout from one of those services will get a job with an NHL team, so yeah, these are real scouts doing good work (some services moreso than others), and they provide very useful info for fans and media, but they're not the pros.

So when an NHL team makes a pick that we weren't expecting as fans, it would be cool if we could hear from other teams' personnel where they had the player ranked, but that is almost 100% of the time not the case. I'd be willing to bet that more often than not, some number of other teams had the player in a similar range.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Duclair is horrendously underrated around here and everywhere. Guy is going to be part of our core

couldn't agree more. He has the potential to be what we had in Hoffman, 25-30 goals as a second line scoring winger. Not the greatest defensively so ideally he'd play with White or Norris so they can mitigate that. He kept our PP afloat after we traded our entire first line, every team needs a sniper.

I think being a part of a rebuild will be great for Duclair, not just because he's around guys his age, but also because the coaches will be able to focus on his development as opposed to being on a playoff team where it's hard to grow cause everyone is just focused on not making mistakes. I want him to make mistakes so we can see if he learns from them.

But 8 goals in 21 games is a 32 goal pace. The scoring is there.

 

[MatchesMalone]

couldn't agree more. He has the potential to be what we had in Hoffman, 25-30 goals as a second line scoring winger. Not the greatest defensively so ideally he'd play with White or Norris so they can mitigate that. He kept our PP afloat after we traded our entire first line, every team needs a sniper.

I think being a part of a rebuild will be great for Duclair, not just because he's around guys his age, but also because the coaches will be able to focus on his development as opposed to being on a playoff team where it's hard to grow cause everyone is just focused on not making mistakes. I want him to make mistakes so we can see if he learns from them.

But 8 goals in 21 games is a 32 goal pace. The scoring is there.

Strangely, Duclair has never been a very good powerplay player anywhere he's gone. He hasn't been terrible, but was never an overall positive influence on a powerplay until he came to Ottawa. His numbers on the PP through his stretch in Ottawa were by far the best in his career, even though he didn't score much on it. I'd like to see him given an opportunity for sure, but preferably on the second unit. First group has gotta be Tkachuk-Anisimov-White-Ryan-Chabot.

Duclair's 5v5 numbers were really good as a Sen, but he was also by far the most sheltered player on the team. So yeah, I'm intrigued to see what he does this year. I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[OD99]

I disagree with your premise that you or any fan has any idea what NHL GMs are going to do at a draft. I never understand this mentality. Do fans of every team think their team is the only one that "goes off the board"?

Every team does it sometimes, but the reason teams do it is a lot simpler than most fans and media think. Very straightforward and not complicated, and yet even in 2019 people still get this confused. The reason is... because there is no board to go off. If I had to pick a single hockey mantra or motto it would be: the only "final ranking" is the draft board. Whatever NHL teams pick is the board, so there's no such thing as going off the board.

The best scouts and hockey evaluators in the world are scouting for NHL teams, not independent scouting services. Every now and then a scout from one of those services will get a job with an NHL team, so yeah, these are real scouts doing good work (some services moreso than others), and they provide very useful info for fans and media, but they're not the pros.

So when an NHL team makes a pick that we weren't expecting as fans, it would be cool if we could hear from other teams' personnel where they had the player ranked, but that is almost 100% of the time not the case. I'd be willing to bet that more often than not, some number of other teams had the player in a similar range.

Of course other teams chase players (since you are opposed to the term, "off the board") but when you pick a player mid rounds that nobody in the hockey world expects to be drafted then it is fair to believe that it might have been better to use the pick on a more established prospect.

We also get to consider the Senators painfully meager scouting department and use critical thinking to imagine they aren't able to make these picks with the same confidence as others who may have had several sets of eyes on that player.

You arent providing a revelation that there isn't one big board that all teams pick off BTW...pretty sure everyone knows that.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Of course other teams chase players (since you are opposed to the term, "off the board") but when you pick a player mid rounds that nobody in the hockey world expects to be drafted then it is fair to believe that it might have been better to use the pick on a more established prospect.

We also get to consider the Senators painfully meager scouting department and use critical thinking to imagine they aren't able to make these picks with the same confidence as others who may have had several sets of eyes on that player.

You arent providing a revelation that there isn't one big board that all teams pick off BTW...pretty sure everyone knows that.

On the bolded part, I think you have a reasonable point. But as I've been saying, our European scout, hired in 2017, Anders Ostberg, was head scout in Örebro, and played a role in acquiring Lodin there. He's seen this kid play more than any other NHL scout I'd bet. We picked no players out of Europe in 2018, so this was Ostberg's first NHL draft pick. So it's the scout we're taking a flyer on as much as the player.

As to the first part of your post, I guess the best argument I can come up with is: is it not possible that had we not picked him, some other team who likes to pick Swedes and had scouts who saw him in his 8 minutes per game and loved his untameable tenacity might have saw him and said "we think this guy is a near lock to be a 4th line energy guy in the NHL, slight offensive upside" and they'd have picked him at 123? Or perhaps Ostberg had spoke to a scout from a team at 120, who said he would be pressing hard to take Lodin.

I dunno man, I don't really have a stance on Lodin. Point was just don't write off draft picks automatically because they seem strange to you. Zetterberg was drafted out of Sweden's DivI, their equivalent of ECHL.

To your last comment, knowing and implementing that knowledge are different things. Of course everybody knows there isn't a mystical Platonic Draft Board of Pure Being, but people sometimes talk as if there is.

 

[OD99]

On the bolded part, I think you have a reasonable point. But as I've been saying, our European scout, hired in 2017, Anders Ostberg, was head scout in Örebro, and played a role in acquiring Lodin there. He's seen this kid play more than any other NHL scout I'd bet. We picked no players out of Europe in 2018, so this was Ostberg's first NHL draft pick. So it's the scout we're taking a flyer on as much as the player.

As to the first part of your post, I guess the best argument I can come up with is: is it not possible that had we not picked him, some other team who likes to pick Swedes and had scouts who saw him in his 8 minutes per game and loved his untameable tenacity might have saw him and said "we think this guy is a near lock to be a 4th line energy guy in the NHL, slight offensive upside" and they'd have picked him at 123? Or perhaps Ostberg had spoke to a scout from a team at 120, who said he would be pressing hard to take Lodin.

I dunno man, I don't really have a stance on Lodin. Point was just don't write off draft picks automatically because they seem strange to you. Zetterberg was drafted out of Sweden's DivI, their equivalent of ECHL.

To your last comment, knowing and implementing that knowledge are different things. Of course everybody knows there isn't a mystical Platonic Draft Board of Pure Being, but people sometimes talk as if there is.

You are making a lot of assumptions from my comments.

I am not writing players off; I am saying history shows we have a strange fascination with making picks in mid rounds that seem really odd and most of those picks that seem really off have gone nowhere.

Yes of course I agree there could have been a secret group of scouts who all thought they had the steal of the draft in Lodin and I am not writing him off yet either. I dont have a high level of confidence that he will become an NHL player but I wont rule it out.

Alfie was a late pick too...times change. It isn't as easy to find that special player that nobody knows anymore.

There will always be surprises of course but the sheer amount of scouts and wanna be scouts and video, etc...make it difficult to have a true hidden gem.

 

[BondraTime]

We 100% have a habit of over-reaching in the mid rounds

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Hey guys, will Erik Brannstrom start in the NHL this year? Or will he be sent down to the A before the season opener?

 

[MatchesMalone]

We 100% have a habit of over-reaching in the mid rounds

I'm curious what you mean by "we" here. The team since Dorion has been GM? Since he was director of scouting?

I'm also wondering what you're considering this habit in relation to. Do we over-reach more often and further than the average team? Which then, more often or further, or both? More than most teams? More than every other team?

I find generally with things like this it's not that I disagree with people conceptually on the whole, just in regards to extent and perspective.

 

[MatchesMalone]

without counting the 2020 picks, how can we expect the forward depth chart to shape up in 2020-21?


Tkachuk-L.Brown-Batherson

Duclair-White-Balcers

C.Brown-Anisimov-Davidsson

Formenton-Norris-Abramov

Paul-Chlapik-Veronneau


But that's without the vets Tierney, Pageau and Ryan.


Tierney : has to be traded. Value at its highest, logjam coming up, I really don't see why they would keep him. Get some more picks and use them to move up in the draft or something.


Ryan : will only have 2 years left, 7.25 isn't that crazy today so if you retain let's say 2.25, he's definitely tradeable to a team who need a smart 0.55 PPG veteran forward. You won't get much in return, maybe a late pick and a aging player (with lower salary than cap; ex : Johnny Boychuk). This kind of trade requires creativity so very hard to give a concrete example but a 6th + Boychuk seems like one. JB has a 6.0 CH but is only owed 8.0 in the last 2 years of his contract with a 2.75 signing bonus. Looks like the perfect target for the Sens, would be a veteran D the Sens could use temporarily to give more to Thomson and JBD (like Hainsey this year). Isles save 1.0 in cap hit and get a younger player that might be more useful. They'll have some other forwards that they should target to trade/buy out though (Ladd)


I hope they don't trade Pageau, I think this guy will be an effective NHLer for a while and growing in his 30s like the Kellys, Drapers, Clearys, etc. He's versatile and can play Wing too so he can be moved around in the bottom-6, good veteran presence to have on top of being a fan favorite (huge in a market they still need to develop) and is a big game player to boot.




Finesse players are always under-appreciated because they look lazy or that they're not giving up a constant effort, a good example on the team Bobby Ryan. Being super fast would help that image but it's not the case for Spezza, Brown or Ryan. Big skilled guys look like that most of the time. Wheeler is another guy of that ilk but faster.

I wish there was a way we could keep both Tierney and Pageau, but it's obviously not gonna happen. I'm confident we'll sign one and trade the other. If we sign Tierney it would be short term so he can make the most of his window as a top six forward while the kids develop, and then he can go cash in as a UFA at 27 or 28.

But the preferred option would be trade Tierney at the deadline, provided we already have Pageau locked up. If Pageau isn't locked up, don't trade Tierney - he's still RFA. I'm hoping for a long term deal with Pageau somewhere in the vicinity of 4-4.25.

My guess is we're stuck with Bobby Ryan until the last year of his contract.

I think it is impossible to ask people to ignore the 2020 1st OA. I'm gonna say what I hope will happen for 2021,

Tkachuk - White - Raymond/C. Brown,
Balcers - Anisimov/L. Brown - Batherson
Duclai - Pageau - Ryan
Formenton - L. Brown/Anisimov - C. Brown/Raymond

Where Raymond and L. Brown play on the more O-zone starts and lighter matchups, and C. Brown and Anisimov play the tougher situations. Norris is the first callup. We re-signed C. Brown for three years and Pageau for six. Duclair for one or two.

I dunno, would I honestly prefer Raymond over Byfield or Lafreniere? We'll see what they do this year but I doubt it. Just doesn't seem realistic to me that we win the lottery. Plus I've watched two of Frölunda's games this year, and Raymond looks legit.

 

[Samsquanch]

I wish there was a way we could keep both Tierney and Pageau, but it's obviously not gonna happen. I'm confident we'll sign one and trade the other. If we sign Tierney it would be short term so he can make the most of his window as a top six forward while the kids develop, and then he can go cash in as a UFA at 27 or 28.

But the preferred option would be trade Tierney at the deadline, provided we already have Pageau locked up. If Pageau isn't locked up, don't trade Tierney - he's still RFA. I'm hoping for a long term deal with Pageau somewhere in the vicinity of 4-4.25.

My guess is we're stuck with Bobby Ryan until the last year of his contract.

I think it is impossible to ask people to ignore the 2020 1st OA. I'm gonna say what I hope will happen for 2021,

Tkachuk - White - Raymond/C. Brown,
Balcers - Anisimov/L. Brown - Batherson
Duclai - Pageau - Ryan
Formenton - L. Brown/Anisimov - C. Brown/Raymond

Where Raymond and L. Brown play on the more O-zone starts and lighter matchups, and C. Brown and Anisimov play the tougher situations. Norris is the first callup. We re-signed C. Brown for three years and Pageau for six. Duclair for one or two.

I dunno, would I honestly prefer Raymond over Byfield or Lafreniere? We'll see what they do this year but I doubt it. Just doesn't seem realistic to me that we win the lottery. Plus I've watched two of Frölunda's games this year, and Raymond looks legit.

Byfield > everyone not named Laffreniere.

Hes already at 4g 1a after 2 games on a Sudbury team that has scored 5 goals...just sayin.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Byfield > everyone not named Laffreniere.

Hes already at 4g 1a after 2 games on a Sudbury team that has scored 5 goals...just sayin.

Holy shit. But I would argue that Holtz' three points in three SHL games is more impressive. Doubt either pace is sustainable.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Slack]

Hey guys, will Erik Brannstrom start in the NHL this year? Or will he be sent down to the A before the season opener?

Jury is still out. Nobody really knows at this point.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Hey guys, will Erik Brannstrom start in the NHL this year? Or will he be sent down to the A before the season opener?

Hard to say. His chances improved with Wolanin getting injured on the eve of camp. Likely between him and Lajoie to start. My money is on Lajoie.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Hey guys, will Erik Brannstrom start in the NHL this year? Or will he be sent down to the A before the season opener?

He very likely starts the season in the AHL.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Byfield > everyone not named Laffreniere.

Hes already at 4g 1a after 2 games on a Sudbury team that has scored 5 goals...just sayin.

I'd take Byfield over Lafreniere. Give me the huge dominating center.

 

[Icelevel]

I'd take Byfield over Lafreniere. Give me the huge dominating center.

I could be convinced either way. Honestly I’d be leaning towards byfield myself but no decisions being made yet.