Prospect Info: 2018-2019 Senators prospect watch part III

[toxic poster]

Yes, age wise that's absolutely correct. I was just speaking in terms of accrued seasons. No penalization to Karlsson, I don't think Chabot is at his level (and most likely never will be).

No one will be at Karlsson's level. Chabot could be a top3 dman in the league in his prime and you would still need rose-tinted glasses to see him on Karlsson's level.

 

[R2010]

Thomson with two goals in his debut today

 

[Xspyrit]

Zibanejad leads stacked list of Senators top prospects

Bishop was later added to that. Hoffman doesn't even make the top 10. Dzingel not even an HM.

You can go ahead and say Prince, Puempel, Noesen were all long shots but they were all as sure or better than the guys you're listing in Norris, Balcers, Davidsson or Formenton. Most of the those guys were better players at younger ages or the same age.

Lehner, Bishop >>> our entire pool of goalies.

No offense to Colin White, he's a good player but he doesn't even have close to the same kind of offensive upside Zibanejad had shown by then. Zibanejad always was the better prospect. Like I said he was in many top 10 lists. Stone, Lehner and Silfverberg all made top 50 lists as well.

The prospect pools were fairly similar. The current one has a bit more D depth but we also had a Norris Trophy winner on the roster at that point too.

Yeah maybe the only other pool that competes with the actual one. It's true that the 2012 pool was truly amazing.

Just for fun, I tried to compare current prospects playing a similar position (but couldn't always compare Wingers and Centers). I didn't always go highest vs highest (ex : Batherson instead of Formenton vs Stone or Dzingel vs Crookshank)

I took the list from our 2012 HF Board rankings. I highlighted the player who has the advantage right now, either because he found success in the NHL (so the prospect would have to do very well to pass him) or the minimal expectation is that the prospects highlighted should do better than the player he is compared with

1. Jakob Silfverberg vs Alex Formenton (AF is a good bet to be as effective/good as JS, but JS could have the nod for now)
2. Mika Zibanejad vs Logan Brown (LB needs to boom to become as good, could be better but chances are low)
3. Robin Lehner vs Filip Gustavsson (FG has stability potential that RL took a long time to find but it will be hard)
4. Mark Stone vs Drake Batherson (DB could be a special player too but very big shoes to fill)
5. Cody Ceci vs Erik Brannstrom (EB has too much potential to not be better than an average #4)
6. Stefan Noesen vs Josh Norris (I don't see JN being just a bottom-6 player/filler)
7. Matt Puempel vs Rudolf Balcers (this shouldn't be too hard for RB)
8. Shane Prince vs Vitaly Abramov (only didn't highlight VA because of that boom/bust factor but he should be better)
9. Mark Borowiecki vs Jacob Bernard-Docker (what a major disappointment it would be if JBD isn't better)
10. Stephane Da Costa vs Filip Chlapik (FC could bust but very good chance to have a longer career than SDC)
11. Mike Hoffman vs Jonathan Davidsson (will be very hard to score as much , but JD should be a better 2-way player)
12. Andre Petersson vs Jonathan Gruden (AP only played 1 game, JG not guaranteed anything but giving him the nod)
13. Jim O'Brien vs Nick Paul (NP just needs to stick in the NHL for a longer time)
14. Patrick Wiercioch vs Lassi Thomson (PW started well but was a flash in the pan)
15. Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Shane Pinto (Pinto has big shoes to fill but very possible that he ends up better)
16. Jarrod Maidens vs nobody (Maidens was uncertain to ever play again and well unfortunately never did)
17. Fredrik Claesson vs Christian Wolanin (CW already better)
18. Derek Grant vs Max Veronneau (Veronneau could easily be better, we'll see)
19. Eric Gryba vs Christian Jaros (no contest IMO)
20. Nikita Filatov vs Parker Kelly (NF had crazy potential but never did anything with it, PK just needs to make it)
21. Darren Kramer vs Michael Carcone (MC much better in the AHL than DK ever was, will play some NHL games)
22. Jakub Culek vs Mark Kastelic (I'm taking my chances on MK doing something much more tangible)
23. Ben Blood vs Jonny Tychonick (even if JT never makes it, I take him as a better prospect 100/100)
24. Chris Wideman vs Maxime Lajoie (CW had some short time success, but ML will have a better/longer career)
25. Chris Driedger vs Mads Sogaard (taking my chances on MS big time here)
26. David Dziurzynski vs Luke Loheit (Let's see what LL can do but not giving him the nod. Actually DD could have it)
27. Michael Sdao vs Maxence Guenette (I like MG chances to do something more tangible)
28. Robbie Baillargeon vs Viktor Lodin (too early but VL has better chances to do som. than a guy who never played AHL)
29. Francois Brassard vs Marcus Hogberg (easily)
30. Mikael Wikstrand vs Olle Alsing (OA just has to come over lol)
31. Ryan Dzingel vs Angus Crookshank (Good luck AC but like his potential)
32. Timothy Boyle vs Andreas Englund (NHL/AHL games > TB by a country mile)
33. Pat Cannone vs Morgan Klimchuk (battle of the AHLers, MK could easily have a better career)
34. Max McCormick vs Markus Nurmi (giving the nod to MM but MN could still do better)
35. Cole Schneider vs Jean-Christophe Beaudin (CS should have a better career in the end)
36. Corey Cowick vs Andrew Sturtz
37. Jordan Fransoo vs Joey Daccord (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
38. Bryce Aneloski vs Kevin Mandolese (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
39. Wacey Hamilton vs Jakov Novak
40. Louie Caporusso vs Todd Burgess

It remains to be seen if they will be able to produce forwards as good as Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman but for the rest, the current group should trump the 2012 pool by a fair margin

We had crazy forward depth back then but I'd say the current forward is as good. However defense and goaltending is A LOT better now. Like I said several times before, you have to take in consideration that the team just into a full rebuild/major firesale, thus adding 10 additional prospects as a result, compared to the 2012 pool that was after a semi-rebuild.

NOTE : Bishop was already 26 y/o when acquired and not eligible as a prospect anymore

 

[MatchesMalone]

Yeah maybe the only other pool that competes with the actual one. It's true that the 2012 pool was truly amazing.

Just for fun, I tried to compare current prospects playing a similar position (but couldn't always compare Wingers and Centers). I didn't always go highest vs highest (ex : Batherson instead of Formenton vs Stone or Dzingel vs Crookshank)

I took the list from our 2012 HF Board rankings. I highlighted the player who has the advantage right now, either because he found success in the NHL (so the prospect would have to do very well to pass him) or the minimal expectation is that the prospects highlighted should do better than the player he is compared with

1. Jakob Silfverberg vs Alex Formenton (AF is a good bet to be as effective/good as JS, but JS could have the nod for now)
2. Mika Zibanejad vs Logan Brown (LB needs to boom to become as good, could be better but chances are low)
3. Robin Lehner vs Filip Gustavsson (FG has stability potential that RL took a long time to find but it will be hard)
4. Mark Stone vs Drake Batherson (DB could be a special player too but very big shoes to fill)
5. Cody Ceci vs Erik Brannstrom (EB has too much potential to not be better than an average #4)
6. Stefan Noesen vs Josh Norris (I don't see JN being just a bottom-6 player/filler)
7. Matt Puempel vs Rudolf Balcers (this shouldn't be too hard for RB)
8. Shane Prince vs Vitaly Abramov (only didn't highlight VA because of that boom/bust factor but he should be better)
9. Mark Borowiecki vs Jacob Bernard-Docker (what a major disappointment it would be if JBD isn't better)
10. Stephane Da Costa vs Filip Chlapik (FC could bust but very good chance to have a longer career than SDC)
11. Mike Hoffman vs Jonathan Davidsson (will be very hard to score as much , but JD should be a better 2-way player)
12. Andre Petersson vs Jonathan Gruden (AP only played 1 game, JG not guaranteed anything but giving him the nod)
13. Jim O'Brien vs Nick Paul (NP just needs to stick in the NHL for a longer time)
14. Patrick Wiercioch vs Lassi Thomson (PW started well but was a flash in the pan)
15. Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Shane Pinto (Pinto has big shoes to fill but very possible that he ends up better)
16. Jarrod Maidens vs nobody (Maidens was uncertain to ever play again and well unfortunately never did)
17. Fredrik Claesson vs Christian Wolanin (CW already better)
18. Derek Grant vs Max Veronneau (Veronneau could easily be better, we'll see)
19. Eric Gryba vs Christian Jaros (no contest IMO)
20. Nikita Filatov vs Parker Kelly (NF had crazy potential but never did anything with it, PK just needs to make it)
21. Darren Kramer vs Michael Carcone (MC much better in the AHL than DK ever was, will play some NHL games)
22. Jakub Culek vs Mark Kastelic (I'm taking my chances on MK doing something much more tangible)
23. Ben Blood vs Jonny Tychonick (even if JT never makes it, I take him as a better prospect 100/100)
24. Chris Wideman vs Maxime Lajoie (CW had some short time success, but ML will have a better/longer career)
25. Chris Driedger vs Mads Sogaard (taking my chances on MS big time here)
26. David Dziurzynski vs Luke Loheit (Let's see what LL can do but not giving him the nod. Actually DD could have it)
27. Michael Sdao vs Maxence Guenette (I like MG chances to do something more tangible)
28. Robbie Baillargeon vs Viktor Lodin (too early but VL has better chances to do som. than a guy who never played AHL)
29. Francois Brassard vs Marcus Hogberg (easily)
30. Mikael Wikstrand vs Olle Alsing (OA just has to come over lol)
31. Ryan Dzingel vs Angus Crookshank (Good luck AC but like his potential)
32. Timothy Boyle vs Andreas Englund (NHL/AHL games > TB by a country mile)
33. Pat Cannone vs Morgan Klimchuk (battle of the AHLers, MK could easily have a better career)
34. Max McCormick vs Markus Nurmi (giving the nod to MM but MN could still do better)
35. Cole Schneider vs Jean-Christophe Beaudin (CS should have a better career in the end)
36. Corey Cowick vs Andrew Sturtz
37. Jordan Fransoo vs Joey Daccord (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
38. Bryce Aneloski vs Kevin Mandolese (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
39. Wacey Hamilton vs Jakov Novak
40. Louie Caporusso vs Todd Burgess

It remains to be seen if they will be able to produce forwards as good as Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman but for the rest, the current group should trump the 2012 pool by a fair margin

We had crazy forward depth back then but I'd say the current forward is as good. However defense and goaltending is A LOT better now. Like I said several times before, you have to take in consideration that the team just into a full rebuild/major firesale, thus adding 10 additional prospects as a result, compared to the 2012 pool that was after a semi-rebuild.

NOTE : Bishop was already 26 y/o when acquired and not eligible as a prospect anymore

Good stuff. Cool idea. There's a couple I'd disagree on here.

I'd give the edge to Filatov over Kelly. Filatov at least played NHL games, which I'm not convinced Kelly will ever do. On the other hand, I guess Kelly could give us a few good years as an AHL depth forward, which isn't worth nothing. Filatov only played 15 AHL games tor the organization.

Between Formenton and Silfverberg, Formenton has similar upside, but I'll take the bird in hand here. I suppose you have them tied because you think Formenton has higher upside? I just don't see it.

And then I doubt Loheit will play 26 NHL games but I guess it's not so much of a longshot.

Other than that it all looks about right.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah maybe the only other pool that competes with the actual one. It's true that the 2012 pool was truly amazing.

Just for fun, I tried to compare current prospects playing a similar position (but couldn't always compare Wingers and Centers). I didn't always go highest vs highest (ex : Batherson instead of Formenton vs Stone or Dzingel vs Crookshank)

I took the list from our 2012 HF Board rankings. I highlighted the player who has the advantage right now, either because he found success in the NHL (so the prospect would have to do very well to pass him) or the minimal expectation is that the prospects highlighted should do better than the player he is compared with

1. Jakob Silfverberg vs Alex Formenton (AF is a good bet to be as effective/good as JS, but JS could have the nod for now)
2. Mika Zibanejad vs Logan Brown (LB needs to boom to become as good, could be better but chances are low)
3. Robin Lehner vs Filip Gustavsson (FG has stability potential that RL took a long time to find but it will be hard)
4. Mark Stone vs Drake Batherson (DB could be a special player too but very big shoes to fill)
5. Cody Ceci vs Erik Brannstrom (EB has too much potential to not be better than an average #4)
6. Stefan Noesen vs Josh Norris (I don't see JN being just a bottom-6 player/filler)
7. Matt Puempel vs Rudolf Balcers (this shouldn't be too hard for RB)
8. Shane Prince vs Vitaly Abramov (only didn't highlight VA because of that boom/bust factor but he should be better)
9. Mark Borowiecki vs Jacob Bernard-Docker (what a major disappointment it would be if JBD isn't better)
10. Stephane Da Costa vs Filip Chlapik (FC could bust but very good chance to have a longer career than SDC)
11. Mike Hoffman vs Jonathan Davidsson (will be very hard to score as much , but JD should be a better 2-way player)
12. Andre Petersson vs Jonathan Gruden (AP only played 1 game, JG not guaranteed anything but giving him the nod)
13. Jim O'Brien vs Nick Paul (NP just needs to stick in the NHL for a longer time)
14. Patrick Wiercioch vs Lassi Thomson (PW started well but was a flash in the pan)
15. Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Shane Pinto (Pinto has big shoes to fill but very possible that he ends up better)
16. Jarrod Maidens vs nobody (Maidens was uncertain to ever play again and well unfortunately never did)
17. Fredrik Claesson vs Christian Wolanin (CW already better)
18. Derek Grant vs Max Veronneau (Veronneau could easily be better, we'll see)
19. Eric Gryba vs Christian Jaros (no contest IMO)
20. Nikita Filatov vs Parker Kelly (NF had crazy potential but never did anything with it, PK just needs to make it)
21. Darren Kramer vs Michael Carcone (MC much better in the AHL than DK ever was, will play some NHL games)
22. Jakub Culek vs Mark Kastelic (I'm taking my chances on MK doing something much more tangible)
23. Ben Blood vs Jonny Tychonick (even if JT never makes it, I take him as a better prospect 100/100)
24. Chris Wideman vs Maxime Lajoie (CW had some short time success, but ML will have a better/longer career)
25. Chris Driedger vs Mads Sogaard (taking my chances on MS big time here)
26. David Dziurzynski vs Luke Loheit (Let's see what LL can do but not giving him the nod. Actually DD could have it)
27. Michael Sdao vs Maxence Guenette (I like MG chances to do something more tangible)
28. Robbie Baillargeon vs Viktor Lodin (too early but VL has better chances to do som. than a guy who never played AHL)
29. Francois Brassard vs Marcus Hogberg (easily)
30. Mikael Wikstrand vs Olle Alsing (OA just has to come over lol)
31. Ryan Dzingel vs Angus Crookshank (Good luck AC but like his potential)
32. Timothy Boyle vs Andreas Englund (NHL/AHL games > TB by a country mile)
33. Pat Cannone vs Morgan Klimchuk (battle of the AHLers, MK could easily have a better career)
34. Max McCormick vs Markus Nurmi (giving the nod to MM but MN could still do better)
35. Cole Schneider vs Jean-Christophe Beaudin (CS should have a better career in the end)
36. Corey Cowick vs Andrew Sturtz
37. Jordan Fransoo vs Joey Daccord (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
38. Bryce Aneloski vs Kevin Mandolese (I know D vs G, but no other comparables both ways)
39. Wacey Hamilton vs Jakov Novak
40. Louie Caporusso vs Todd Burgess

It remains to be seen if they will be able to produce forwards as good as Stone, Zibanejad and Hoffman but for the rest, the current group should trump the 2012 pool by a fair margin

We had crazy forward depth back then but I'd say the current forward is as good. However defense and goaltending is A LOT better now. Like I said several times before, you have to take in consideration that the team just into a full rebuild/major firesale, thus adding 10 additional prospects as a result, compared to the 2012 pool that was after a semi-rebuild.

NOTE : Bishop was already 26 y/o when acquired and not eligible as a prospect anymore

Going off memory but Spezza Gleason, volchenkov, laich, vermette kelly Bochenski, prusek were all part of the pool in 2001. There would have been more that i just dont remember but the top end of that group is pretty good.

 

[Benttheknee]

The question is significance

Stone vs Brannstrom
Zibanejad vs Batherson
Silfverberg vs Brown
Hoffman vs Formenton
Pageau vs Norris
Ceci vs JBD
Dzingle vs Thomson
Lehner vs Wolanin
Borowiecki vs Balcers
Gryba vs Abramov
Wideman vs Lajoie
Wiercioch vs Jaros (still a rookie?)

Anybody else is a wildcard.

 

[Micklebot]

The question is significance

Stone vs Brannstrom
Zibanejad vs Batherson
Silfverberg vs Brown
Hoffman vs Formenton
Pageau vs Norris
Ceci vs JBD
Dzingle vs Thomson
Lehner vs Wolanin
Borowiecki vs Balcers
Gryba vs Abramov
Wideman vs Lajoie
Wiercioch vs Jaros (still a rookie?)

Anybody else is a wildcard.

To be fair, back in 2012 Stone Dzingel and Hoffman were still sort off wild cards

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

To be fair, back in 2012 Stone Dzingel and Hoffman were still sort off wild cards

Stone was a pretty legit prospect at that point. There were concerns about his skating but he had broken out as a prospect in a very significant way.

 

[Johnny Hanson]

Lassi Thomson with 2 goals in his first game

 

[Six Assets]

Lassi Thomson with 2 goals in his first game

 

[MatchesMalone]

... there are likely four defensemen on Ilves who will start ahead of Lassi Thomson on the depth chart, but they're short on the right side so he'll get plenty of opportunity and no reason he can't be the third overall minute defenseman and second or third powerplay option by season's end. Would be surprising to see him pass Laaksonen for the top pair right spot though.

In his first game he played 20:43. Third most among defensemen, only behind Laaksonen and Maalahti.

Second among D in PP time with 4:34, only behind Maalahti. And he even played :56 SH, good for third on the team among defensemen.

Hopefully he keeps it up. Was not expecting he'd play this big a role this early. Certainly wasn't expecting him to be a PK option already.

 

[Micklebot]

Stone was a pretty legit prospect at that point. There were concerns about his skating but he had broken out as a prospect in a very significant way.

Legit, yes I agree. But even at that point there were concerns if he could transition to the NHL because of his skating. But 2012 Stone vs 2019 Brannstrom as prospects, I'd easily lean towards the latter. That's all.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Slap me silly Lassi.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I know we defaulted to Thomson since all our targets werw taken right before we got to pick but he seems like a decent prospect to me.

 

[Samsquanch]

I know we defaulted to Thomson since all our targets werw taken right before we got to pick but he seems like a decent prospect to me.

Where did you hear that? I seem to recall them saying that they had been targeting Thompson all season long as a guy they would likely be able to grab.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Where did you hear that? I seem to recall them saying that they had been targeting Thompson all season long as a guy they would likely be able to grab.

I don't recall hearing the name before we drafted him and a lot of comments that Dorion & Co. looked a bit annoyed when making the pick.

All the guys were were all talking about drafting (on here) were taken right before we got to go. It seems reasonable to think he was the "well we'll get him in the worst case scenario".

Management said they expected to get him but let's be honest, the only other thing they'd say is "we can't believe he fell to us".

 

[Samsquanch]

I don't recall hearing the name before we drafted him and a lot of comments that Dorion & Co. looked a bit annoyed when making the pick.

All the guys were were all talking about drafting (on here) were taken right before we got to go.

Management said they expected to get him but let's be honest, the only other thing they'd say is "we can't believe he fell to us".

I dunno man, pretty sure that's not the case. I'd listen to Trent Manns interview post draft again if I were you.

Lassie Thompson is 100% an Ottawa type pick. Late rising guy with good skating and raw tools, and lots of room to grow. Weve seen these kind of Dmen taken by us before in the mid 1st round...

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I dunno man, pretty sure that's not the case. I'd listen to Trent Manns interview post draft again if I were you.

Lassie Thompson is 100% an Ottawa type pick. Late rising guy with good skating and raw tools, and lots of room to grow. Weve seen these kind of Dmen taken by us before in the mid 1st round...

My point is don't put too much stock in the interview, they will never say what they think.

It is fair to say that all the guys picked in the four to five picks before we went were high profile prospects that management had probably hoped to snagged one but settled on Thomson.

 

[Samsquanch]

My point is don't put too much stock in the interview, they will never say what they think.

It is fair to say that all the guys picked in the four to five picks before we went were high profile prospects that management had probably hoped to snagged one but settled on Thomson.

Well then I guess my point is dont put too much stock into what your reading when they made the pick (you think they were annoyed lol?), or in the pre draft video where Thompson wasnt mentioned - seems pretty silly that a team would tip their hand like that. Especially on a late riser like Lassi was.

 

[MatchesMalone]

In today's game against Lukko Thomson played 19:41. Good for second on the team behind Laaksonen's 22:01. Thomson played 2:29 on the PP, most on the team ahead of Laaksonen's 2:22.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Miro Heiskanen had 23 points in 30 games(about a 0.77 ppg rate) in his D+1 year in the Liiga.

Thomson is no Heiskanen, but if he can get close-ish to those points he'll definitely be a prospect to watch out for.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Miro Heiskanen had 23 points in 30 games(about a 0.77 ppg rate) in his D+1 year in the Liiga.

Thomson is no Heiskanen, but if he can get close-ish to those points he'll definitely be a prospect to watch out for.

Don't look at draft year or D+1, look at age (birth year).

Heiskanen was in his 18YR old season when he put up those numbers. As a late birthday, Lassi's 18YR old season was his draft year.

Heiskanen's rookie year in the NHL he was in his 19YR old season, which Thomson is in now as a late-birthday.

But yeah, if Thomson puts up anywhere close to 23P/30GP this season that would be very impressive, whether he's in his 18YR old or 19YR old season.

 

[Xspyrit]

Good stuff. Cool idea. There's a couple I'd disagree on here.

I'd give the edge to Filatov over Kelly. Filatov at least played NHL games, which I'm not convinced Kelly will ever do. On the other hand, I guess Kelly could give us a few good years as an AHL depth forward, which isn't worth nothing. Filatov only played 15 AHL games tor the organization.

Between Formenton and Silfverberg, Formenton has similar upside, but I'll take the bird in hand here. I suppose you have them tied because you think Formenton has higher upside? I just don't see it.

And then I doubt Loheit will play 26 NHL games but I guess it's not so much of a longshot.

Other than that it all looks about right.

Thanks

Mistake on my part, I intended to have none of Filatov and Kelly highlighted but I guess you're right, Filatov should have the nod for now

Regarding Silfverberg, he has been made more than he really is on this board because of the Ryan trade (who still outscores him 6+ years later) but he has a 0.51 PPG pace over his career, which is 42 pts per 82 games. This is exactly the upside that I am expecting from Formenton, a 0.5 PPG winger but who creates more havoc with his speed. I could have given the nod to JS but since Formenton seems as sure as a bet as you can see with a prospect, I'm putting them on par, even though AF could end up better, or at the minimum close to JS

Also you're right about Loheit vs Dziurzynski, DD should have the nod, but we're talking about longshot/depth prospects here so not very important.

Saying it again, our 2019 top-25 is really hard to beat, doubt we'll ever see that again, unless we get another Melnyk-like owner and he decides to go into a major firesale (disguised as a rebuild)

Going off memory but Spezza Gleason, volchenkov, laich, vermette kelly Bochenski, prusek were all part of the pool in 2001. There would have been more that i just dont remember but the top end of that group is pretty good.

It's Spezza's name here (a 2nd OA pick with tremendous upside) that make this pool sounds good but I still take the 2012 and 2019 pools comfortably. There's nothing we don't have in spades with that list here (Prusek vs Sogaard/Gustavsson/Lehner; Bochenski/Kelly/Vermette/Laich vs Stone/Zibanejad/Silfverberg/Hoffman or Batherson/Brown/Norris/Formenton/Balcers/etc; Volchenkov vs Ceci or Jaros/Wolanin/JBD/Brannstrom/etc)

Would have liked to see the exact pool from 2001 to push this conversation deeper but it doesn't seem like HF has old archives.

From what I can recall (which is probably not much lol), Alfredsson, Hossa, Chara, Spezza, Havlat, Phillips, etc were not in the same pools. Alfie, for example, didn't stay a top prospect very long (?)

 

[Micklebot]

Thanks

Mistake on my part, I intended to have none of Filatov and Kelly highlighted but I guess you're right, Filatov should have the nod for now

Regarding Silfverberg, he has been made more than he really is on this board because of the Ryan trade (who still outscores him 6+ years later) but he has a 0.51 PPG pace over his career, which is 42 pts per 82 games. This is exactly the upside that I am expecting from Formenton, a 0.5 PPG winger but who creates more havoc with his speed. I could have given the nod to JS but since Formenton seems as sure as a bet as you can see with a prospect, I'm putting them on par, even though AF could end up better, or at the minimum close to JS

Also you're right about Loheit vs Dziurzynski, DD should have the nod, but we're talking about longshot/depth prospects here so not very important.

Saying it again, our 2019 top-25 is really hard to beat, doubt we'll ever see that again, unless we get another Melnyk-like owner and he decides to go into a major firesale (disguised as a rebuild)



It's Spezza's name here (a 2nd OA pick with tremendous upside) that make this pool sounds good but I still take the 2012 and 2019 pools comfortably. There's nothing we don't have in spades with that list here (Prusek vs Sogaard/Gustavsson/Lehner; Bochenski/Kelly/Vermette/Laich vs Stone/Zibanejad/Silfverberg/Hoffman or Batherson/Brown/Norris/Formenton/Balcers/etc; Volchenkov vs Ceci or Jaros/Wolanin/JBD/Brannstrom/etc)

Would have liked to see the exact pool from 2001 to push this conversation deeper but it doesn't seem like HF has old archives.

From what I can recall (which is probably not much lol), Alfredsson, Hossa, Chara, Spezza, Havlat, Phillips, etc were not in the same pools. Alfie, for example, didn't stay a top prospect very long (?)

Spezza vs depth. It's a tough call imo. The 2012 draft is unique in that a lot of guys ended up exceeding expectations now that we look back at their careers. The trick here is trying not only to remember who was in the pool, but also how highly regarded were they at that particular time. We had Chouinard, Emery Prusek, and Lajeunesse as goalie prospects back then if I recall. I think Prusek and Emery were probably the least well regarded at the time... How would that group stack up to our current goalies in terms of hype?

 

[Xspyrit]

Spezza vs depth. It's a tough call imo. The 2012 draft is unique in that a lot of guys ended up exceeding expectations now that we look back at their careers. The trick here is trying not only to remember who was in the pool, but also how highly regarded were they at that particular time. We had Chouinard, Emery Prusek, and Lajeunesse as goalie prospects back then if I recall. I think Prusek and Emery were probably the least well regarded at the time... How would that group stack up to our current goalies in terms of hype?

Well, I'm pretty sure you know it's not as simple as "Spezza vs depth". Spezza had a great career of course and was an amazing prospect but you know he has never been a perfect 1st line center, his overall game always lacked things that made him so far from the overall effectiveness of a Patrice Bergeron for example.

So while Spezza is great, I don't think "Batherson, Brannstrom, Brown, Norris, JBD, Thomson, etc" is just "depth". There's some very high quality in there.

I think it's really misleading/incomplete to compare the best 2-3 prospects (or it seems even 1 for some) from pools to determine what pool is better. IMO, you have to look at all the legit prospects that can earn top-9/top-5/G roles and then you can compare tiers (not the one we saw from the article but with my example if you add another tier between 2 and 3)

So let's do that with goalies. Yes, Emery was drafted 4th round in 2001 so he had just landed in that pool (and certainly not as highly regarded as Sogaard/Gustavsson, even the Daccord/Hogberg of now) so if you compare the overall position :

Sogaard-Gustvasson-Daccord-Hogberg-Mandolese

vs

Prusek-Chouinard-Emery-Lajeunesse

Like you said, hard to remember exactly how these were perceived as prospects, seriously it's 18 years ago lol, but if you allow yourself the benefit of hindsight, you pick the 2019 group easily.

Now I'd like to do that exercise for the D and F groups but that'd take too much time. I'll give it a try in fast mode. What I remember (and did some checks just to be sure) is we had a lot of young talent on the team who graduated fast like Fisher (drafted in 98, graduated in 2000), Hossa (drafted in 97, graduated in 98-99), Havlat (drafted in 99, graduated in 2000-01) Arvedsson, Rachunek, Salo, Dackell, etc.

Chris Neil was a prospect but don't think he was highly regarded. Nick Paul is probably a better prospect than Neil was and he was voted around 25th in our 2019 rankings. Doubt Paul has a career as good as Neil but he was an unique player.

Bochenski in 2001 was certainly not seen higher than Crookshank or Gruden, probably closer to a Loheit/Lodin.

Laich also wasn't a great prospect in 2001, was just drafted in the 6th round coming from 30 pts in 71 WHL games.

Schubert was also just drafted as an obscure 4th round pick from Germany

Yeah we had some intriguing/interesting prospects like Vermette, Kelly, Volchenkov, Gleason, Schastlivy, Zanon, Langfeld, Vauclair and Bala but nothing that we don't have in spades today. I really don't think that the current pool (and the 2012 pool) has anything to envy from that 2001 pool.

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Also, you said "the 2012 draft is unique" and you probably meant "pool" but I kinda disagree. Ottawa is located between Montreal, Toronto and New York, the medias/fanbase population of those 3 areas is so much bigger than Ottawa's that they will always be the "underdog". It's the same thing for prospects, never really hyped until they are taken seriously (ex : Alfredsson, Karlsson, Chabot, etc). It's really not just the 2012 pool. I have seen that a lot since I became a fan in 1997.

Note : thanks, interesting discussion IMO