Speculation: 2018-19 roster

[CupInSIX]

Hamhuis is not really good anymore but as a one year plug if he's better than what we've got then whatever.

I don't want to use up our assets trading for a Skinner, Pacioretty or Saad type.

From that group, it would be Panarin or bust. The only way to roll from possibly losing out on a superstar is to roll to getting another. That's what Tampa is supposedly doing, although I'm still puzzled why because they don't need it in the slightest.

EDIT: The more I think about it, if they could do it, Panarin and Gusev on a second line could be insane in a year.

Panarin and Goose would be terrific, but I'm worried Gusev is still 2 years away when he can avoid the standard ELC and go for multi-year big money.

Another 21-23yo waivers-exempt prospect like Tuch would be perfect.

 

[LadyStanley]

This won't go to ruling. GMGM will realize the mistake after seeing the stats, and sign him after the hearing...

Cannot use Tavares as comparable. Has to be another RFA (not UFA).

My thought is that Karlsson's side might chose comparable for similar age/experience, but about half the offense, suggesting that double the salary is appropriate.

 

[Blue Goose]

Smith-Karlsson-Marchessault
Haula-Stastny-Carpenter <- Carpenter and Haula had instant chemistry, I hope I'm not the only one who saw it.
Tatar-Eakin-Tuch <- Eakin will make this work
Nosek-Bellemare-Carrier

Really good thing is that lines 2-4 are interchangeable, any possible combination should work decently well. Carpy in the 2nd line is a result of me seeing every Haula game... ever. Haula is a high tempo/low stamina player and intelligent defensive line mates will able him to use that energy in the O-zone.

Swap the wingers from the 2nd line to the 3rd line and back, and then I would agree. Tatar needs to be with Stastny to get the most out of him.

A 2 year 4m AAV arbitration ruling would be pretty amazing, followed by re-signing him 8 years at 7-8m.

That's pretty much what I want to see as well - I really don't even care what the AAV is on the 2-year deal since we'll have the cap space during that time. The argument that some VGK fans have had (as well as Jesse Granger) is that by giving him a 2-year bridge deal he could command $10M+ on his 8-year extension which I have a VERY hard time believing. I say 2 years for $5M AAV, then 7 years for $7M on a front loaded-deal with a huge signing bonus in the first year in case of a lockout in 2020. Cody Glass should presumably unseat him as the #1C, but he won't need his second deal until after the 2nd year of Bill's extension. If he hits his potential during the ELC, you can give Glass an 8-year extension and we've got our top 2 C's locked up long term.

Now that the Knights probably aren't going to give up an arm and a leg to get the other Karlsson, should they be done? Do they sign Hamhuis or a similar LD to strengthen their biggest weakness from the playoffs? Do they make a pitch for Skinner, Pacioretty, Saad or Panarin?

Nah, I don't see it. Like Vegan Knight said, you swing for the fences if it's Erik Karlsson, but there's no need to spend assets for wingers. And I don't see them going for another LD like Hamhuis. GMGM specifically said in his press conference that he wanted 8 D at the NHL level, and he's got that - Hunt's contract is one-way this year, which makes me think McPhee always planned on him staying up with the big club, especially since the blueline in Chicago is pretty full.

 

[Blue Goose]

Cannot use Tavares as comparable. Has to be another RFA (not UFA).

My thought is that Karlsson's side might chose comparable for similar age/experience, but about half the offense, suggesting that double the salary is appropriate.

That's why the arbitrator is going to have a tough time - there really isn't a comparable for Wild Bill. I can't think of anyone who went from less than 10 goals to more than 40 during the two years of his second contract. If you look at the last two years, Bill has essentially averaged 25 goals and 50 points, right (49G, 103P)? The only comparables I could find that had similar numbers and were coming off their second contract are Tyler Johnson and Alex Galchenyuk. The AAV on Johnson's new contract was $5M, while Galchenyuk's was $4.9M. That's why I picture Bill getting 2 years, $5M per.

 

[Vegan Knight]

That's why the arbitrator is going to have a tough time - there really isn't a comparable for Wild Bill. I can't think of anyone who went from less than 10 goals to more than 40 during the two years of his second contract. If you look at the last two years, Bill has essentially averaged 25 goals and 50 points, right (49G, 103P)? The only comparables I could find that had similar numbers and were coming off their second contract are Tyler Johnson and Alex Galchenyuk. The AAV on Johnson's new contract was $5M, while Galchenyuk's was $4.9M. That's why I picture Bill getting 2 years, $5M per.

I think this is a good assessment. I would really like to lock him up for 6-something for longer term, though. Even as high as 7 for 6-8 years. Would he say no to 56 million when he would still only be 33 and possibly still have one shorter contract left afterward?

Even if the shooting percentage comes down and he regresses to 25-30 goals, 60-65 points those are Bergeron type offensive numbers with that same two way elite defensive center play and great speed. He also showed the playoffs aren't too big a stage for him. He just needs to work on his faceoffs.

He would also still be relatively young at 33 by the end of it. I don't think we would regret that deal and you've got to take a chance to get those steal deals they have in Tampa or Chicago had with Keith.

 

[Aurinko]

That's why the arbitrator is going to have a tough time - there really isn't a comparable for Wild Bill. I can't think of anyone who went from less than 10 goals to more than 40 during the two years of his second contract. If you look at the last two years, Bill has essentially averaged 25 goals and 50 points, right (49G, 103P)? The only comparables I could find that had similar numbers and were coming off their second contract are Tyler Johnson and Alex Galchenyuk. The AAV on Johnson's new contract was $5M, while Galchenyuk's was $4.9M. That's why I picture Bill getting 2 years, $5M per.

If you look at the stats, there has never been a player like this on arbitration since the last time a player had this dominant +/- was -92 Lemieux. And yes, it is an official stat they take into consideration.

It will be interesting to see what they come up with...

 

[Blue Goose]

I think this is a good assessment. I would really like to lock him up for 6-something for longer term, though. Even as high as 7 for 6-8 years. Would he say no to 56 million when he would still only be 33 and possibly still have one shorter contract left afterward?

Even if the shooting percentage comes down and he regresses to 25-30 goals, 60-65 points those are Bergeron type offensive numbers with that same two way elite defensive center play and great speed. He also showed the playoffs aren't too big a stage for him. He just needs to work on his faceoffs.

He would also still be relatively young at 33 by the end of it. I don't think we would regret that deal and you've got to take a chance to get those steal deals they have in Tampa or Chicago had with Keith.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see McPhee doing a long-term deal based on one season. Bill's going to need to bet on himself and prove last year wasn't a fluke.

 

[Gurglesons]

If you strike out on Karlsson, do you think Vegas would be interested in Theodore and a small plus for Letang?

 

[Aurinko]

If you strike out on Karlsson, do you think Vegas would be interested in Theodore and a small plus for Letang?

It's exciting to see Tampa, Leafs etc. piling up star players, but it feels even better to beat their asses in the next final with an AHL team

Joking aside, not a fan of Theo, but would still give him a bit more time to see how he develops. Defensive pairings supporting the push is completely different thing to me than a single D trying to play like Erik Karlsson and causing the backside to leak.

 

[HanSolo]

If you strike out on Karlsson, do you think Vegas would be interested in Theodore and a small plus for Letang?

Not even remotely.

 

[VegasKnightlife]

I was fine moving Theodore in a EK trade, but would not give him up for most players. He needs to work on some things, but is a talented defenseman who can break a zone.

 

[Aurinko]

I was fine moving Theodore in a EK trade, but would not give him up for most players. He needs to work on some things, but is a talented defenseman who can break a zone.

Theo has good potential for sure.

In the playoffs theo had 10 pts, 7.7 shot%, playing 21:40
EK had career playoffs last year, doing 18 pts, 3.8 shot%, playing 28:08

Ofc we should have a spot for healthy EK if he just wanted to join... Being forced to take the Bobby Ryan contract with him sounds catastrophic tho. (Ryan = 4x7,25M cap hit for nothing)

 

[Langdon Alger]

I posted this on the Sens board as to what I think the return on Karlsson would be. Let me know what you guys think. This is also based on Karlsson signing an extension.

Karlsson
Ryan

Theodore
Haula
2019 first
2020 second
Suzuki/Brannstrom
Clarkson

 

[CupInSIX]

I posted this on the Sens board as to what I think the return on Karlsson would be. Let me know what you guys think. This is also based on Karlsson signing an extension.

Karlsson
Ryan

Theodore
Haula
2019 first
2020 second
Suzuki/Brannstrom
Clarkson

Take out the 1st and I'd do it.
But another team should eat some of Ryan's salary.

 

[The Duck Knight]

I'd do it without Haula. Also rather send Suzuki than Brannstrom.

 

[Aurinko]

I posted this on the Sens board as to what I think the return on Karlsson would be. Let me know what you guys think. This is also based on Karlsson signing an extension.

Karlsson
Ryan

Theodore
Haula
2019 first
2020 second
Suzuki/Brannstrom
Clarkson

Just offer them a first round pick, they will take the deal sooner or later since they have no other chance. Karlsson signing the deal has nothing to do with Ottawa benefiting from this trade, they are just looking if someone is dumb enough to take Ryan away from them for free, since after the next season they are: 1) stuck with Ryan contract 2) get nothing from Karlsson. You don't have to eject half of our future team for this.

 

[CupInSIX]

The problem with trading for Karlsson is you'd have to have an extension in place right away. This might bring Schmidt's asking price up, so I'd rather wait to see if he can be signed long term for under 5.5m, which makes everything else much more manageable - especially Bobby Ryan's massive contract.

Get the RFAs done first, then you can see if you can fit both Tatar and Ryan for 2 years, and after that they shouldn't be too difficult to move out.

 

[Blue Goose]

If you strike out on Karlsson, do you think Vegas would be interested in Theodore and a small plus for Letang?

Not really. I'd only want to move Theo for someone like EK. If we were to make a move for Letang, I'd offer something else.

I posted this on the Sens board as to what I think the return on Karlsson would be. Let me know what you guys think. This is also based on Karlsson signing an extension.

Karlsson
Ryan

Theodore
Haula
2019 first
2020 second
Suzuki/Brannstrom
Clarkson

I think there needs to be one less piece going to Ottawa if we take on Ryan. I always imagined the deal would be: Theodore, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd, Clarkson and one more piece (not named Glass, Tuch or Brannstrom). I assumed Suzuki would be the most appealing to the Sens, not Haula (who can walk as a UFA in 2 years).

 

[LadyStanley]

Top 10 UFAs remaining: Latest rumours, reports - Sportsnet.ca

GMGM denies claim of Sbisa's agent that no offer was made.

 

[GKG18]

Could have been lowball offers. $4m cap hit too much for him.

 

[Vegas Mac]

I'd do it without Haula. Also rather send Suzuki than Brannstrom.

Yeah Haula on top of everything else is a bit too much. Make it Haula OR Theo and I'm down with it.

I have to think that if George gets it done it will include Theodore and Brannstrom. And more besides of course, but they are going to want those two blue line pieces IMO.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Yeah Haula on top of everything else is a bit too much. Make it Haula OR Theo and I'm down with it.

I have to think that if George gets it done it will include Theodore and Brannstrom. And more besides of course, but they are going to want those two blue line pieces IMO.

I'm very okay with sending the two defensemen both over in a trade.

We would have a back line with a legitimate top 4 and good depth. Might need a bottom pair rental this year if Holden is not so good.

McNabb-EK
Schmidt-Miller
Holden-Engelland
Merrill-Hunt

Then we still have Whitecloud for next year and Hague for the year after. Plus, they were keeping tabs on Schuldt.

Keeping both Glass and Suzuki, while having Gusev as an option in a year or so seems worth it to me up front and we have the depth on defense to do it.

 

[Pirate Deadpool]

I can't believe the Blues got Maroon for $1.75M for 1 season. I would rather have done that deal than 2 years of Reaves. Maroon would be a great bottom 6 scoring threat for VGK that desperately needs secondary scoring help from it's bottom six forwards.

 

[Boris Zubov]

I can't believe the Blues got Maroon for $1.75M for 1 season. I would rather have done that deal than 2 years of Reaves. Maroon would be a great bottom 6 scoring threat for VGK that desperately needs secondary scoring help from it's bottom six forwards.

Couldn't agree more. I wanted McPhee to grab him at the deadline last year. Maroon brings much needed size & grit while being able to play a middle six role. Feels like we missed out on improving the team with very little investment required.

In other news, the Habs are moving Pacioretty. If we miss out on Karlsson, we need to be in on him. He is the goal scoring wing that would transform this team offensively & is also a huge upgrade from both Perron & Neal.

It would also enable Gallant to move both Tatar & Haula down to the 3rd line for much needed scoring depth.

Marchy-Wild Bill-Smitty
Tuchsy-Stasny-Pacioretty
Haula-Eakin-Tatar

That's pretty solid for a year or two until Glass is ready to assume the 2C/3C.

 

[Pirate Deadpool]

Couldn't agree more. I wanted McPhee to grab him at the deadline last year. Maroon brings much needed size & grit while being able to play a middle six role. Feels like we missed out on improving the team with very little investment required.

In other news, the Habs are moving Pacioretty. If we miss out on Karlsson, we need to be in on him. He is the goal scoring wing that would transform this team offensively & is also a huge upgrade from both Perron & Neal.

It would also enable Gallant to move both Tatar & Haula down to the 3rd line for much needed scoring depth.

Marchy-Wild Bill-Smitty
Tuchsy-Stasny-Pacioretty
Haula-Eakin-Tatar

That's pretty solid for a year or two until Glass is ready to assume the 2C/3C.

Yeah Maroon would have been a really nice 2nd or 3rd line forward for VGK to help replace the scoring of Neal and Perron. What a bargain. He has 4 times the points of Reaves last season and plays a tough guy role as well and his contract is much cheaper. I don't know how we weren't on him if he and his agent were settling for such a low deal. I thought for sure he would get at least $3M AAV. Other than Stastny, I think we could have done better in the UFA market.

I'm ok with getting Patches if the price is right. So far it looks like some GMs are settling for less just to relieve themselves of a big contract. I hope that we can get him as well. Suzuki plus another prospect and a pick might be able to do it.

The Blues might be a real threat to go deep into the playoffs if they get good goalie play. They have some real nice pieces on the team and Armstrong has done well so far in the off season. GMGM seems too fixated on EK. Because he missed out on EK, he overpaid for Tatar. Those picks could have helped get EK before the draft or used to get ROR. Armstrong really bent the Sabres over in that deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to have Stazz on the team, but I would have been even happier to get ROR. If we can't get EK, then maybe a trade with Minny or Nashville could be done for a good dman. Both teams need centers/forwards and we have a need for one more top 4 dman.