2018-19 Roster Talk: Part One

[mdm815]

So we want to make moves to win now, but spending a 3rd on a goalie to help w the playoff push was a bad move? So what are we actually advocating for here?

 

[Lotusflower]

Shouldnt take 7 seasons for a GM that inherited Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds, Schenn, and Ghost to build a Contender.

I truly believe that as soon as we were gifted 2nd overall last year Hextall moved on from the Giroux era core.

From his perspective he's got Hart at 1G, Patrick at 1C, Provorov at 1D penciled in. The reason he cited hiring Hak was his rapport and ability to develop young players right? These are those players.
From his perspective he's playing with house money since he's already got Cout, Giroux, Voracek, and Ghost locked up longterm.

Those guys should keep this team somewhat competitive while Hak works his "magic" with the Patrick-era core.
Keeps the casuals focused on shootout woes and not organization-wide ineptitude while allowing Hak a more or less clean slate with the Patrick-era core.

I expect Hexy lowballs Simmonds on his contract negotiations. If Simm wont take the sweetheart deal to stay with his pals he deals him for whatever youth / picks he can ala Schenn and keeps it moving.

 

[Lindberg]

I truly believe that as soon as we were gifted 2nd overall last year Hextall moved on from the Giroux era core.

From his perspective he's got Hart at 1G, Patrick at 1C, Provorov at 1D penciled in. The reason he cited hiring Hak was his rapport and ability to develop young players right? These are those players.
From his perspective he's playing with house money since he's already got Cout, Giroux, Voracek, and Ghost locked up longterm.

Those guys should keep this team somewhat competitive while Hak works his "magic" with the Patrick-era core.
Keeps the casuals focused on shootout woes and not organization-wide ineptitude while allowing Hak a more or less clean slate with the Patrick-era core.

I expect Hexy lowballs Simmonds on his contract negotiations. If Simm wont take the sweetheart deal to stay with his pals he deals him for whatever youth / picks he can ala Schenn and keeps it moving.

Be afraid... be very afraid.

 

[Rebels57]

I truly believe that as soon as we were gifted 2nd overall last year Hextall moved on from the Giroux era core.

From his perspective he's got Hart at 1G, Patrick at 1C, Provorov at 1D penciled in. The reason he cited hiring Hak was his rapport and ability to develop young players right? These are those players.
From his perspective he's playing with house money since he's already got Cout, Giroux, Voracek, and Ghost locked up longterm.

Those guys should keep this team somewhat competitive while Hak works his "magic" with the Patrick-era core.
Keeps the casuals focused on shootout woes and not organization-wide ineptitude while allowing Hak a more or less clean slate with the Patrick-era core.

I expect Hexy lowballs Simmonds on his contract negotiations. If Simm wont take the sweetheart deal to stay with his pals he deals him for whatever youth / picks he can ala Schenn and keeps it moving.

I can't breathe

 

[Ruck Over]

I finally figured out who you remind me of. One of those smarmy people who resorts to "you just didn't get it" when someone dislikes a movie they love. I get what's going on perfectly. Unfortunately it has yet to yield results. When the coach can't even identify the massive coaching problems or properly evaluate the position he once played hope that things will come together isnt something I have. But hey, just keep holding onto the idea that you're the smartest guy in the room and those who disagree with you just don't get it.

Hey now! I'm one of those, "You just didn't get it" folks when people say they don't like the movie "Get Out".

My feelings are hurt now. Get Out is a f***ing fantastic film.

 

[deadhead]

You are correct, MDZ was a very good signing, That was a long long time ago though. Elliott and Neuvrith (second contract) were horrible signings no matter how somebody tries to spin them. Guys like Boyd Gordon were bad signings as well whether people want to point to their lack of significance or not. Did it hurt the franchise long term, no. Was Boyd Gordon sold to be someone who was going to be an upgrade to the fourth line and take the pressure off of Giroux in the face off circle and on the PK, yes. Did he do any of that, we all know the answer to that. Here we are four years later and everyone to a man agrees that the 3rd and 4th lines need to be upgraded. Hextall signed a ton of 3rd/4th line guys over his four years as GM. Perhaps if guys like Gordon, Weise, Vandevelde, PEB, Lyubimov would have worked out, or had they signed other guys instead the need to upgrade the forward depth wouldn't be there.

Why are these horrible signings in the CONTEXT in which they were made.
If you're rebuilding, there are basic rules:
1) don't commit to long-term contracts for free agents who won't be productive when the team is ready to compete
2) accumulate draft picks and prospects
3) marinate prospects to maximize their chance of success

It's a painful process.

Now if you want to claim Hextall should have blown it up to accumulate even more assets and "tank" to get top 5 picks for a few years, there's an argument both ways, sometimes it works (Pittsburgh, Chicago), sometimes it creates an organizational malaise (Edmonton).
Hextall remained competitive (2 PO appearances in 4 years) while accumulating 8 1st rd picks over five years. That ain't bad work.

None of the players Hextall signed for the 3rd and 4th lines or 3rd D-pair would have been long-term solutions (maybe Luby, but he was a low cost long shot).
They were signed as patches to buy time for draft picks to arrive. Weise was the only long deal and $2.35M a year didn't quite break the bank.

The team is still two years away from being SC competitive, but that's a high standard, basically one of the top 4-5 teams in the NHL.
There's no miracle move that will speed up the process (without jeopardizing the future), three things have to happen to reach that summit:
1) the core young players have to grow up and be playoff ready, that usually happens at 22-24, often after a couple "fails"
2) the next wave (Myers, Frost, Hart, Allison, Ratcliffe, etc) needs to arrive and fill out the top of the roster
3) the secondary prospects have to arrive and provide depth, and show enough to be valuable "cannon fodder" for trades, whether in the NHL or AHL.

Getting over the hump from playoff competitive to SC competitive is tough:
St Louis - last 7 years, 6 playoff appearance, 1 loss in the CF [before that, made the playoffs 1 out of 6 years]
Washington - last 11 years, 10 playoff appearances, finally in the SC finals, before then never made it to the CF finals
Nashville - Trotz got 'em to the playoffs 7 of 8 years, missed two years, got to the SC finals last year, otherwise not even the CF the other three years

It's hard to make the CF finals, much less the SC finals, much less win the Cup.
Appearances in the CF the last five years:
TB (3) - SC loss, CF losses
Pittsburgh (2) - SC wins
Anaheim (2) - CF losses
Chicago (2) - SC win, CF loss
San Jose (1) - SC loss
LA (1) - SC win
Nashville (1) - SC loss
Winnipeg (1) - CF loss
St Louis (1) - CF loss
Washington (1) - SC finals
Vegas (1) - SC finals

 

[BernieParent]

Just to toss in a neutral perspective on goaltending -- well, not neutral because I really disliked the Elliott signing, but not ready to either excuse or execute Hextall for it -- here are some numbers to chew on for the most reasonable options versus Elliott:

Bishop
· Contract: 6 years @ $4.9 million (signed at age 30)
· Career .916 SV%; 2017-18 .916
· Already had a history of significant injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Cost a 4th round pick
Smith
· Contract: 6 years @ $5.7 million (signed at age 29). Calgary traded with 2 years remaining; Arizona retained 25%
· Career .913 SV%; 2017-18 .916
· History of significant injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Cost Chad Johnson, Brandon Hickey, and a conditional 3rd round pick (2nd if Flames made playoffs)
Bernier
· Contract: 1 year @ $2.75 million (signed at age 28)
· Career .914 SV%; 2017-18 .913
· No significant injury history, missed 18 games (including 2 playoff games) in 2017-18
· Signed as a UFA
Elliott
· Contract: 2 years @ $2.75 million (signed at age 32)
· Career .913 SV%; 2017-18 .909
· History of injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Signed as a UFA

Personally, I was in favour of Bernier over Elliott but the on-ice stats would seem to indicate that all of the other options would have possibly made a difference though how significant is questionable, particularly with the difference in team defense. As well, the seasons of all of Bishop, Smith and Elliott were derailed at the end by significant injury.

In a 20-20 hindsight way, I would have liked Bernier as first choice and the cost of 2 years of Smith wasn't prohibitive. Bishop's contract is too long for someone with an established Neuvirth-level of health, particularly with Hart and Sandstrom entering the picture.

 

[Lindberg]

I'm of the opinion that most of Hextall's signings and etc. can be boiled down to of nothing of importance one way or the other. What he does with Simmonds is going to be interesting though.

 

[deadhead]

Six years is not a long wait for a real contender, if you look around at rebuilds, that's the norm, though most team miss the playoffs for five years and draft high for 3-4 years - but they also seem to blow one or two of those top 5 draft picks, so I'm not sure, other than getting the right #1, that it's that big of an advantage.

When Ron traded Schenn for draft picks instead of players (and St Louis could have put together a package of players at the back of the roster/AHL/juniors) he was both signaling the rebuild wasn't over and that he was setting himself up for the ED.

I've been saying that 2019-20 is the target year for almost two seasons now, because when you look at drafting, and the time it takes for most players to hit their stride, that's when the first wave of Hextall draft picks should be the key players on this team: Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, TK, Patrick, Frost, Vorobyev, Hart. At that point you have both depth and a critical mass of top players who are playoff seasoned:

Giroux (32) - Couts (27) - TK (22)
Lindblom (23) - Patrick (21) - Voracek (30)
Laughton (25) - Frost (20) - ???
Twarnyski (21)/Rubtsov (21) - Vorobyev (23) - NAK (23)

Provorov (23) - Ghost (26)
Sanheim (23) - Myers (23)
Morin (24) - Friedman (24)

??? - Hart (21) - Lyon (26)

You'd still have Ratcliffe (20), Allison (22), Laczynski (22), Bunnaman (21), Hogberg (20), etc. in the wings.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I'm just surprised that anyone has any faith in Hextall after his decision to keep Lappy. That is beyond egregious to me.

Because in the grand scheme of things, it will likely be irrelevant in the end.

I think Lappy should go, but I don't think it's that big of a deal since we're not ready to win based on talent alone even with a good special teams assistant.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

G-Couts-TK
Lindblom-Patrick-Voracek
Grabner-Bozak-Simmonds
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

Provy-Ghost
Sanheim-Myers
Hagg-Gudas
AMac

Elliott
Lyon

Sign Grabner and Bozak for 2 years a piece, nothing too expensive. Gives the Flyers another year with Laughton and that can give time for Frost to be back in juniors for one more year. Flyers will be pretty sizeable down the middle with some good skill.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Just to toss in a neutral perspective on goaltending -- well, not neutral because I really disliked the Elliott signing, but not ready to either excuse or execute Hextall for it -- here are some numbers to chew on for the most reasonable options versus Elliott:

Bishop
· Contract: 6 years @ $4.9 million (signed at age 30)
· Career .916 SV%; 2017-18 .916
· Already had a history of significant injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Cost a 4th round pick
Smith
· Contract: 6 years @ $5.7 million (signed at age 29). Calgary traded with 2 years remaining; Arizona retained 25%
· Career .913 SV%; 2017-18 .916
· History of significant injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Cost Chad Johnson, Brandon Hickey, and a conditional 3rd round pick (2nd if Flames made playoffs)
Bernier
· Contract: 1 year @ $2.75 million (signed at age 28)
· Career .914 SV%; 2017-18 .913
· No significant injury history, missed 18 games (including 2 playoff games) in 2017-18
· Signed as a UFA
Elliott
· Contract: 2 years @ $2.75 million (signed at age 32)
· Career .913 SV%; 2017-18 .909
· History of injury, and missed significant time in 2017-18
· Signed as a UFA

Personally, I was in favour of Bernier over Elliott but the on-ice stats would seem to indicate that all of the other options would have possibly made a difference though how significant is questionable, particularly with the difference in team defense. As well, the seasons of all of Bishop, Smith and Elliott were derailed at the end by significant injury.

In a 20-20 hindsight way, I would have liked Bernier as first choice and the cost of 2 years of Smith wasn't prohibitive. Bishop's contract is too long for someone with an established Neuvirth-level of health, particularly with Hart and Sandstrom entering the picture.

I'd also add in Mason as another reasonable option for this chart.

I think at worst, Hextall signed the 2nd best option for his building plan. That's not so terrible (I would've preferred Bernier over Elliot, too).

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I'd also add in Mason as another reasonable option for this chart.

I think at worst, Hextall signed the 2nd best option for his building plan. That's not so terrible (I would've preferred Bernier over Elliot, too).

Mason deserves better than our current f***ing coaching group.

 

[Tripod]

You need assets to make moves. Where was Hextall getting these magical assets from? He had no cap room so signing low cost FA was all he could do. What trade assets did he have?

2008: Sbisa traded....Rinaldo next best pick....traded for a 3rd
2009: not one player played more than 31 games...Wellwood. McGinn traded for a 3rd
2010: Chaput was their best pick with 135 games. McGinn traded for a 3rd
2011: Couts was on team. Cousins traded for 5th

Everyone else from the more recent drafts are starting or have started to make the team. Guys like Ghost, Laughton, Hagg, Morin, Sanheim, Lindblom, TK, Provy, and Patrick.

So like 2 years ago, who were we supposed to trade to make us better? To get someone good, we would have been trading something good. Sure, in a perfect world, maybe we trade Morin before he got hurt for someone who helps immediately. But on the flipside, maybe you choose the the wrong guy and trade away Ghost instead for example. I said it before, I have less issue with Morin not reaching his potential in Philly, then trading him away and seeing him reach that potential elsewhere.

But yeah, it just comes down to WHO were we supposed to add to help the "core" the last few years and what was the cost? And it might have made us better, but for how long, and how much better?

Hextall is ultra conservative...no doubt about it. He is certainly waiting until the pipeline is overflowing before making any bigger moves. Will that be this summer? I hope so. Will I hold my breath? No. Because we STILL have a crazy young D, no prospects ready for 3rd line duty, and 2 unreliable goaltending. And to fix ALL those things, uses up a bunch of prospects/assets that Hextall has been patiently waiting to arrive.

I hope he DOES look to add 3rd line help because no kid is ready. But it also takes 2 sides to get a deal done. And seeing what Kane got, using FA to fill those holes might be free in assets, it certainly isn't free having to overpay in cap hit.

 

[Striiker]

Hey now! I'm one of those, "You just didn't get it" folks when people say they don't like the movie "Get Out".

My feelings are hurt now. Get Out is a ****ing fantastic film.

Incredibly overrated.

It wasn't hard to "get", it just wasn't that good.

 

[Striiker]

I'm just surprised that anyone has any faith in Hextall after his decision to keep Lappy. That is beyond egregious to me.

By that logic...

I'm surprised anyone has any doubt in Hextall after he managed to trade Rinaldo for a positive return. That is beyond fantastic to me.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

By that logic...

I'm surprised anyone has any doubt in Hextall after he managed to trade Rinaldo for a positive return. That is beyond fantastic to me.

Yup

 

[Rebels57]

Incredibly overrated.

It wasn't hard to "get", it just wasn't that good.

Terrible hot take.

 

[kelmitchell]

So we want to make moves to win now, but spending a 3rd on a goalie to help w the playoff push was a bad move? So what are we actually advocating for here?

The firing of haktard GOSH!!! (in my randy marsh voice)

 

[Rebels57]

By that logic...

I'm surprised anyone has any doubt in Hextall after he managed to trade Rinaldo for a positive return. That is beyond fantastic to me.

Having a terrible PK coach for 4 years and deciding to stick with him for a 5th has a much bigger effect on the team than trading Rinaldo for a 3rd round pick. Unless of course Ustimenko defies the odds and becomes a #1 goalie one day. Aside from the negative effect on the team, it also shows a major flaw in decision making.

 

[Prongo]

Max Domi again mentioned in rumors. Go get him. He would be a great bottom 6 addition with potential.

 

[kelmitchell]

Max Domi again mentioned in rumors. Go get him. He would be a great bottom 6 addition with potential.

Realistically what would you give up? What wpuld you be willing to part with

 

[Striiker]

Having a terrible PK coach for 4 years and deciding to stick with him for a 5th has a much bigger effect on the team than trading Rinaldo for a 3rd round pick. Unless of course Ustimenko defies the odds and becomes a #1 goalie one day. Aside from the negative effect on the team, it also shows a major flaw in decision making.

I was going for the whole "use one single example to make complete judgement" thing, but if we're instead going for the magnitude argument then I'd point out that the negative impact of sticking with Lappy is easily dwarfed by the positive impact of the teams drafting and developing.

Either way, keeping Lappy isn't an egregious enough error to mistrust the GM.

It's also dishonest to pretend that this has been a clear problem for 4 years when this Lappy hate is a more recent occurrence. If it was so obvious, why was it not brought up more before? It was only this past year that the issue became commonly discussed. The numbers haven't been good, but that's also been partly a roster problem... we can only guess how much of the blame belongs to each side. Hextall also acknowledged it being an issue, seeing as he pointed out that he saw enough positive changes at the end of the year to believe it was going to improve next year, implying that it is a concern of his and he knows it needs to change if it doesn't improve.

 

[Curufinwe]

Arizona really seem to chew thru their young guys. One year they're scoring 40+ points, then next season they're in the doghouse and on the block.

 

[Lindberg]

The Lappy thing has been going on for a long while. It hasn't just been this year.