2018-19 Roster Speculation: Tis the season

[Aladyyn]

Why would you think that?

If Skinner and Sheary were flipped I’d like it more. Skinner/Sobotka/Sam had a successful preseason game together so there would at least be some basis for trying it. Does Phil keep his notes from then?

At least make it Skinner-Berglund-Reinhart. I'd like that.

 

[hizzoner]

So who drives a line every time he is on the ice? Who does it fairly regularly 5 on 5? My answers to those questions will make a lot of Sabres fans antsy and will be predictors of what I think we need in the upcoming draft. Those players are NOT readily available in a trade--complementary players-even good ones-yes. But guys who drive a line almost every time they are on the ice 5 on 5 ? No. So far I see a bunch of under achieving talented and over paid wimps. I hate the idea of a Tortarella type coach but Mr. Nice Guy does not seem to be able to put any steel or passion into this group so far. Oh well. Maybe this afternoon someone will sprinkle fairy dust over the boys....

 

[Aladyyn]

So who drives a line every time he is on the ice? Who does it fairly regularly 5 on 5? My answers to those questions will make a lot of Sabres fans antsy and will be predictors of what I think we need in the upcoming draft. Those players are NOT readily available in a trade--complementary players-even good ones-yes. But guys who drive a line almost every time they are on the ice 5 on 5 ? No. So far I see a bunch of under achieving talented and over paid wimps. I hate the idea of a Tortarella type coach but Mr. Nice Guy does not seem to be able to put any steel or passion into this group so far. Oh well. Maybe this afternoon someone will sprinkle fairy dust over the boys....

Mathieu Perreault

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

So basically yes, you think the only option after Murray got the team to 8th from last, bad, but not league embarrassing, was to tank all the way to last and continue to stay at that level for at least another year, because woe is Buffalo?

I’m not defending Murray as having done good, I had many gripes, including hating the Bylsma hires. But that’s where your comments don’t make sense to me. Buffalo missed on Babcock, but chose to get a name coach in Bylsma. That doesn’t sound like no one will come to Buffalo. Housley was one of the most hyped coaching hires in the last couple years. We took him from a Championship caliber team. Don’t mistake badly misidentified choices, from an inability to recruit talent with a mega rich owner. Same thing with bringing in Okposo as a top ufa or Skinner accepting a trade. The idea that Buffalo is a black hole for bringing in people is a pre-Pegula mindset not backed up by facts any more than 95% of the league.

And what was left behind talent wise? Ppg center, two way 60+ point center. Two 50 point wingers. Risto. Two top ten picks/prospects. I mean for the faults this roster has to be a contender, it had plenty of decent options to be competitive. He turned it into a last place team.

Nobody is saying Botts should have made them a cup contender in year 1 or 2. But they have clearly regressed under Botts so far. And while I certainly support building thru the draft in general, imagine if we hadn’t won the lottery? What would this team look like without Dahlin being its best defenseman? I like Svech and Tkachuk and the Montreal kid. But those guys might help or bottom 6 today at best. You don’t win the lottery, we are guaranteed to be in last place this year. And there’s a great chance we pick 3-4 this year, which is no guarantee of a great player.

The whole reason tanking made sense was you had a guarantee of a top 2 pick. Intentionally letting your team bottom out again is moronic. The alternative, they ranked accidentally is just as terrifying.

Did I mention we traded O’Reilly, for a guy who isn’t that good anymore and got healthy scratched? St. Louis is giving us a pick in the 15-25 range. Again a pick, that even it works out, is not helping us for 3 years at least.

Look, I really hope we turn it around, and Mitts starts tearing it up. But there’s no way around the fact that these moves by Botts look terrible from an overall strategy perspective. Good moves like picking up Sheary and Skinner are annihilated by trading O’Reilly. Good move like trading for Scandella is wasted by not replacing the depth forwards used in the trade.

Bah, can’t wait for 2022.

Don't start the whole putting words in other poster's mouth routine. You're saying there was a whole other intentional tank after Botterill. That's not widely accepted and I'm not going to bother going far down that rat hole. Instead, I think Botterill wanted to assess, not make any big moves, but definitely restock on draft picks. Along the way we discovered that Housley is a bad HC. That's what got the roster to last place.

Byslma was out of hockey for over a year when Buffalo hired him, and Housley had history here. Okposo doesn't move the needle either for me, not to mention it was a poor move to sign him anyway. Winning the lottery, not winning, nobody controls that so why bother factoring that in?

Not getting into O'Reilly here, clearly more than just Botterill was in on that decision. Saying Botterill's moves look terrible right now is just impatience, or assuming he had all the clout with O'Reilly and Housley decisions.

 

[joshjull]

One thing I feel Phil really has to let go of is his singular focus on defensive “strategies” and focus on offensive ones. What I mean by that is constantly worrying about the defensive line matchups and dzone face offs. Get away from breaking up lines for a dzone faceoff where an extra center is used in many cases. It creates a lack of flow to the lines. It also creates situations where we break out and have one forward scrambling to change for the other member of that line. Which usually kills the flow of the breakout/transition to attack.

We didn’t have the players to do such a defensive focus. Thats even more the case this year. I mean its crazy that half our forwards have such ridiculously defensively skewed ozone starts. Guys like Pommer (36% Ozone faceoff%), Erod (19%) and Thompson (28%) should never been used in this fashion. If they are going to contribute its going to be offensively. Phil is essentially handicapping them from the get go. None of them are shutdown guys, none of them. Yet they are getting used, as their OZ% suggests, as if they are defensive specialists. Its crazy.

 

[joshjull]

We should have at most 1 line with a heavy defensive focus and 3 lines with an eye towards offense. While having the focus be on rolling the lines as much as possible. Then using the defensively focused line in specific situations, not as a constant matchup. Then focus on specific offensive situations to load up a line from time to time to get a goal.

If we want to focus on a defensive matchup it should be trying to find a d-pair that can do it. There are several reasons to try this. (1) Its much easier to consistently get your dpair out against the other top line, (2) It allows the forward lines to roll which allows them to get a flow going. (3) Its a lot easier to find 2 dman needed for this than two lines full of defensively capable forwards. Or at least 4 defensively strong forwards to man those lines.


Its like Housley is focused on trying to protect a lead before the game even starts.

 

[sabrebuild]

Don't start the whole putting words in other poster's mouth routine. You're saying there was a whole other intentional tank after Botterill. That's not widely accepted and I'm not going to bother going far down that rat hole. Instead, I think Botterill wanted to assess, not make any big moves, but definitely restock on draft picks. Along the way we discovered that Housley is a bad HC. That's what got the roster to last place.

Byslma was out of hockey for over a year when Buffalo hired him, and Housley had history here. Okposo doesn't move the needle either for me, not to mention it was a poor move to sign him anyway. Winning the lottery, not winning, nobody controls that so why bother factoring that in?

Not getting into O'Reilly here, clearly more than just Botterill was in on that decision. Saying Botterill's moves look terrible right now is just impatience, or assuming he had all the clout with O'Reilly and Housley decisions.

A last place team happened under Botts watch. If he was assessing, that’s a hell of a price for the fan base to pay, so he can get up to speed.

Yup Bylsma was out for a year. He was still a big name and media credited it hugely as well as many posters here. Yes Housley has a connection here. As do most star players who end up working for their former club. You may personally not be impressed by Okposo’s Islander career. It still doesn’t change the fact he was a highly sought after ufa who chose buffalo.

You factor in winning the lottery for exactly your statement, you have no control over it and the range is huge now. So putting yourself in a last place situation is per se riskier than it has ever been before.

Finding out Housley is a moron after you hire him, is not usually a reason for saying that’s why the team was last and not because of Botts. Hiring Housley was Botts choice. Ergo his fault that his coach contributed to a last place season.

 

[joshjull]

Or if Phil wants to focus on defense make it structural by playing a trap/left wing lock or any variant of said ideas. Instead of putting guys ill suited into defensively focused roles while theoretically attempting to play an aggressive attacking style. At least with a trap, etc the system helps out a ton with the defensive work and isn’t as reliant on specific individuals carrying a heavy load defensively.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

We should have at most 1 line with a heavy defensive focus and 3 lines with an eye towards offense. While having the focus be on rolling the lines as much as possible. Then using the defensively focused line in specific situations, not as a constant matchup. Then focus on specific offensive situations to load up a line from time to time to get a goal.

If we want to focus on a defensive matchup it should be trying to find a d-pair that can do it. There are several reasons to try this. (1) Its much easier to consistently get your dpair out against the other top line, (2) It allows the forward lines to roll which allows them to get a flow going. (3) Its a lot easier to find 2 dman needed for this than two lines full of defensively capable forwards. Or at least 4 defensively strong forwards to man those lines.


Its like Housley is focused on trying to protect a lead before the game even starts.

Perfectly stated.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Finding out Housley is a moron after you hire him, is not usually a reason for saying that’s why the team was last and not because of Botts. Hiring Housley was Botts choice. Ergo his fault that his coach contributed to a last place season.

None of us know this, and I never criticized Murray for Dufus because I don't truly know how much influence the Pegulas have in those decisions.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Yeah, I definitely appreciate the concerns about defensive impact and also the putting all your eggs in one basket. But I think I'd still give them a 5-10 game run and see if they can form an elite level of offensive chemistry that can overcome their flaws. If they don't mesh, **** it, separate them and spread out the even strength scoring. I felt the same way about Kane at first too.

I get that, and if we get one of those random Pominville scoring runs the line could surprise, but the Sabres are so devoid of structure right now that there's nothing to offset the fact that all of that trio are bad defensively, other than tilted deployments.

The biggest drag on Eichel 5v5 remains his defense, not his ability to generate offense. I'm fine with tacking on finishing when Jack is tilting the ice and can't buy a goal, but that's not the case right now. The Sabres with Eichel on the ice are defending like the worst team in the league by 2018 CA/GA numbers, and addressing that has the potential to drive scoring, because so much of Jack's opportunities come after rounds of opposition cycling.

Meanwhile in Edmonton, McDavid is playing wing with RNH because as dumb as that organization is, they know he's their meal ticket offensively. But given that it took the Sabres 3 seasons to give Jack 55+% OZS (year 2 and 1 deployments for McDavid and Matthews), I expect the Buffalo to start tinkering with those looks in around 2021.

 

[joshjull]

One of the bigger surprises so far this season for me is that the ROR role is a thing. What I mean by that is I thought Housley used ROR the way he did because of his skill set. I didn’t have a huge issue with it becasue I felt getting reinforcements to ROR’s wing would help him succeed in that role.

But it appears thats actually a role Housley expects someone to play on his team every year. Its not a role he built specifically for ROR. This year it started as Berglund and its now Sobotka. I’m surprised by his stubbornness. That he hasn’t recognized thats not the best use of the talent we have and he needs to adjust accordingly.

I wasn’t excited by the ROR trade but I could live with it in the short run with the talent coming (overall not specifically the trade) and the options it gave us tactically. I didn’t anticipate Housley being this rigid with his approach and essentially doing the same thing as last year. Its very frustrating because if this was the way he was going to do things. Then losing ROR is a bigger problem than I felt it would be this summer.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

One of the bigger surprises so far this season for me is that the ROR role is a thing. What I mean by that is I thought Housley used ROR the way he did because of his skill set. I didn’t have a huge issue with it becasue I felt getting reinforcements to ROR’s wing would help him succeed in that role.

But it appears thats actually a role Housley expects someone to play on his team every year. Its not a role he built specifically for ROR. This year it started as Berglund and its now Sobotka. I’m surprised by his stubbornness. That he hasn’t recognized thats not the best use of the talent we have and he needs to adjust accordingly.

I wasn’t excited by the ROR trade but I could live with it in the short run with the talent coming (overall not specifically the trade) and the options it gave us tactically. I didn’t anticipate Housley being this rigid with his approach and essentially doing the same thing as last year. Its very frustrating because if this was the way he was going to do things. Then losing ROR is a bigger problem than I felt it would be this summer.

Technically it started with Sobotka in the Bruins game, went to Rodrigues/Berglund, and then back to Sobotka. We'll see if Sobotka remains the defensive zone guy as a top six forward, or if that's Larsson-Berglund's problem now.

 

[sabrebuild]

None of us know this, and I never criticized Murray for Dufus because I don't truly know how much influence the Pegulas have in those decisions.

Fair. I think some moves feel like Pegula is involved. Tho the rumors that said Murray not wanting to fire Bylsma was part of why Murray got canned would seem to contradict that idea.

But I can’t say that I think it’s rational to pick and choose which decisions were owner made and which ones were the GM. If that’s the case we might as well not discuss the GM at all, and just discuss all decisions as Pegula calls. Otherwise it seems like a fools errand, because you could never actually identify who made which decision.

 

[joshjull]

Technically it started with Sobotka in the Bruins game, went to Rodrigues/Berglund, and then back to Sobotka. We'll see if Sobotka remains the defensive zone guy as a top six forward, or if that's Larsson-Berglund's problem now.

The most insane usage this year is Erod getting 19% Ozone face offs. Essentially an even more defensively skewed Larsson role of last year year for the 4th line center. I hope Erod And Mitts break out offensively playing together to keep Erod from such stupid usage.

 

[Moskau]

One of the bigger surprises so far this season for me is that the ROR role is a thing. What I mean by that is I thought Housley used ROR the way he did because of his skill set. I didn’t have a huge issue with it becasue I felt getting reinforcements to ROR’s wing would help him succeed in that role.

But it appears thats actually a role Housley expects someone to play on his team every year. Its not a role he built specifically for ROR. This year it started as Berglund and its now Sobotka. I’m surprised by his stubbornness. That he hasn’t recognized thats not the best use of the talent we have and he needs to adjust accordingly.

I wasn’t excited by the ROR trade but I could live with it in the short run with the talent coming (overall not specifically the trade) and the options it gave us tactically. I didn’t anticipate Housley being this rigid with his approach and essentially doing the same thing as last year. Its very frustrating because if this was the way he was going to do things. Then losing ROR is a bigger problem than I felt it would be this summer.

He did it last season with Larsson if RoR was struggling in a game (vs Crosby comes to mind) as well. He's a clown.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

We should have at most 1 line with a heavy defensive focus and 3 lines with an eye towards offense. While having the focus be on rolling the lines as much as possible. Then using the defensively focused line in specific situations, not as a constant matchup. Then focus on specific offensive situations to load up a line from time to time to get a goal.

If we want to focus on a defensive matchup it should be trying to find a d-pair that can do it. There are several reasons to try this. (1) Its much easier to consistently get your dpair out against the other top line, (2) It allows the forward lines to roll which allows them to get a flow going. (3) Its a lot easier to find 2 dman needed for this than two lines full of defensively capable forwards. Or at least 4 defensively strong forwards to man those lines.


Its like Housley is focused on trying to protect a lead before the game even starts.

The craziest part is, ERod's emergence as an effective checking forward created an opportunity to do just that. During the Sabres' brief foray into competence, they were icing:

Sheary-Eichel-Reinhart (1B offensive deployments, 1A QoC)
Skinner-Berglund-Okposo (1A offensive deployments 1B QoC)
Girgensons-Rodrigues-Pominville (4 offensive deployments, high DZS against a middling QoC)
Elie-Mittelstadt-Thompson (3 offensive deployments, 4 QoC)

That lineup had an effective 3 line structure for defending leads, and opportunities for Rodrigues and Mittelstadt to move up while chasing. Long-term, Casey replaces Okposo in a hybrid C/W role with Berglund, and KO becomes the centerpiece of scoring line 3/4 as the AHL rotation upgrades Elie/Sobotka/Thompson. You can also give Mittelstadt some additional OZS time with those third line wingers in the interim.

Unfortunately, in reality, Phil blew up the lines above to accommodate Mittelstadt and Sobotka in top 9 roles. Blah blah three game sample blah, but the team is surrendering twenty more shot attempts an hour (a rate of over 70) since the two effectively replaced Berglund/Rodrigues. That's not a coincidence, since now one of the team's worst defensive players (pick between Eichel/Sheary, the entire second line, and Sobotka) is out for at least 3/4ths of ES. Buffalo also gave up a zillion shots in blowouts to the Knights and Sharks, so it's deeper than score effects.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The most insane usage this year is Erod getting 19% Ozone face offs. Essentially an even more defensively skewed Larsson role of last year year for the 4th line center. I hope Erod And Mitts break out offensively playing together to keep Erod from such stupid usage.

As I said above, ERod's performance in that role - while not optimal for him individually - created opportunities for Eichel, Skinner and Mittelstadt, and a line that was holding its own in tough minutes to offset a noncontributing fourth line.

And, since Phil is already looking to shift his high usage defensive player up the lineup, there was clear opportunity to have Rodrigues do what Sobotka's doing now. FFS he and Skinner have produced 2 goals in 5 minutes on an 80% shot share. This shit should not be hard to figure out.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

PPS, Sobotka's currently the league's third worst player in terms of RelTxG. Serenity now!

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The most insane usage this year is Erod getting 19% Ozone face offs. Essentially an even more defensively skewed Larsson role of last year year for the 4th line center. I hope Erod And Mitts break out offensively playing together to keep Erod from such stupid usage.

Watch Housley finally give Erod some ozone startsb today...only to give all of the dzone ones to Reinhart/Sheary

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Dahlin's on the PP1 unit today. Would've liked to see both him and Risto on the same unit but he's on #2 with Reinhart and KO.

 

[Aladyyn]

PPS, Sobotka's currently the league's third worst player in terms of RelTxG. Serenity now!

Who could have possibly seen that coming though?!

 

[sabrebuild]

One of the bigger surprises so far this season for me is that the ROR role is a thing. What I mean by that is I thought Housley used ROR the way he did because of his skill set. I didn’t have a huge issue with it becasue I felt getting reinforcements to ROR’s wing would help him succeed in that role.

But it appears thats actually a role Housley expects someone to play on his team every year. Its not a role he built specifically for ROR. This year it started as Berglund and its now Sobotka. I’m surprised by his stubbornness. That he hasn’t recognized thats not the best use of the talent we have and he needs to adjust accordingly.

I wasn’t excited by the ROR trade but I could live with it in the short run with the talent coming (overall not specifically the trade) and the options it gave us tactically. I didn’t anticipate Housley being this rigid with his approach and essentially doing the same thing as last year. Its very frustrating because if this was the way he was going to do things. Then losing ROR is a bigger problem than I felt it would be this summer.

To me the idea Phil would have that role at all is silly, but yeah to do it with extremely less talented players is insane.

I was more concerned that Mitts wouldn’t be ready for a huge offensive role. But Phil took it up a notch.

But if that was how Phil planned on coaching, and we can fairly assume that Botts and Phil had discussed the team’s on ice strategy and roles, it makes that trade even more head scratching, without management having an emotional reaction to scape goat O’Reilly after the failure of a season. Which he certainly gave them the chance to do.

But given that foreknowledge of how you planned to win games. It’s a perfect setup to have kept O’Reilly, eating all these minutes and breaking even against some of the best, and let Mitts ease in on the 3C or a wing on the top 6.

Pretty risky move by management.

 

[Fezzy126]

Why would you think that?

If Skinner and Sheary were flipped I’d like it more. Skinner/Sobotka/Sam had a successful preseason game together so there would at least be some basis for trying it. Does Phil keep his notes from then?

I think when people look at line construction, the 1st thing they notice is top 6 vs bottom 6, 2nd is the center spine, and the 3rd thing they notice is if any big names have been dropped into the bottom 6. So when that line construction came out, the instantaneous thoughts that came out were probably along the lines of:
"POMINVILLE ON THE TOP LINE? GROSS! SOBOTKA AT 2ND LINE CENTER?!? WTF! WE'RE SADDLING SAM WITH HIM TOO! DOUBLE WTF! There isn't an ounce of offensive talent on the 4th line, but meh, whatever it's the 4th line. I don't like Mitts with KO, but hey, at least Erod should get a bump playing time..."

Whereas, if you swapped Sam & Sobotka, initial reactions are probably a little less negative:
"POMINVILLE ON THE TOP LINE? GROSS! I like that they're looking at Sam at 2nd line center! Not a fan of saddling him with Sobotka, but maybe his grit and Sheary's speed could work. Maybe Erod with Mitts can spark a secondary scoring line. Getting KO fewer minutes with bottom 6 role is good too."

I could be way off, but that's my line of thinking inside the dark mind of HF posters...

 

[hizzoner]

?? So Pominville drives the line? Heh heh heh. Great job by that line.