2018-19 Roster Speculation: Tis the season

[ZZamboni]

Dahlin could start be playing like a #1 overall pick

The kid is playing very well. What the hell do you logically expect?
Key word, logically.

 

[sabrebuild]

Sobotka’s ascendancy continues

Right now @struckbyaparkedcar is punching holes in walls and screaming into the void.

Interesting lineup choices Phil....

 

[kirby11]

At this point I'm kinda hoping we go into a 6+ game tailspin so Phyllis gets fired. Those ES lines are atrocious

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

You chose to argue a simple and clearly true point that I made...you chose to argue. I won't, and haven't, argued about tertiary moves that could possibly/hypothetically be made and possibly/hypothetically improve the team >< that much.

I haven't made excuses for Housley, but Botterill has chosen the long road of building through draft and un-drafted signings. Gonna take time to see how it shakes out but Rochester looks like a good clue that it's a solid choice so far. The hot take is calling for Botterill's head or making mountains out of molehills over the Carrick's of the NHL. The "top-four" guy on an "exciting team" is actually the 5th or 6th best D-man on a .500 team that was ten games over .500 last season. Hyperbole to point at Carrick as a factor, but acquiring even more mediocre players up to the contract limit will change stuff.

And yeah...bad players like Pominville, Sobotka, Bogosian, Hunwick will magically disappear as their contracts expire. They WILL be magically replaced with good young talent that's already looking good in Rochester. When the roster is ready to be a legit playoff team, we can then debate what Botterill does about Berglund, Okposo, and Scandella because it will actually matter then, with actual playoff implications. The minutiae will be worth the concern, not like now when they won't win a playoff game regardless.

You are aware that all the team's most important futures are already on the NHL roster, right?

It's not just improving the roster for the sake of some immediate, empty wins, it's that Risto, Eichel and Reinhart are behind schedule due to the roles they were forced into by bad coaches on bad teams, and I don't want Dahlin and Mittelstadt following suit. Improving the obvious-bad talent now also puts the team in a better position to take on future potential, both through improving the core and role players they fit in around.

Additionally, the idea of developing multi-year AHL projects is practically fiction given the realities of the Cap. Good players are graduating before they hit 80 games in the minors, and arbitrary over-ripening just leads to wasting games of top 6/4 production.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Fezzy126]

Phil straight up found the two combos that can’t play together and built lines around them. And here I called last night a master class.

Skinner-Eichel
Sobotka-Anybody
Mittelstadt-Okposo
Larsson-Berglund

I hear people complain about this duo from the echo chamber at times, but I'm surprised to hear this from you... People like Filipovic, Dellow, Stimson, and Berkshire are big proponents of an Eichel-Skinner pairing for multiple reasons:

• At a high level Jack's natural ability to set up (i.e. passive nature) and Skinner's natural ability to finish (i.e. selfish nature) seem like a match made in heaven
• Eichel's biggest strength is transition, but his ability to create HD scoring chances in the O-zone leaves a bit to be desired, whereas
• Skinner's greatest strength is his ability to create in the offensive zone, while he's a bit of a mess between the blue lines.

I'm curious why you feel differently

Also, I actually like the erod-mitts-ko line, it's one that seemed to have some natural chemistry at the end of last year and a line that I had penciled in all off season

 

[VaporTrail]

That lineup is a joke...I don't care where you put the pieces it's not going to work...We just don't have the talent and players....Botterill has a lot of work to do still.

 

[joshjull]

 

[Ness]

"Sam Reinhart needs to get going, let's put him on a line centered by Sobotka" lol

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Those lines...perfectly horrific for Halloween.

 

[Fezzy126]

That lineup is a joke...I don't care where you put the pieces it's not going to work...We just don't have the talent and players....Botterill has a lot of work to do still.

Anaheim is winning with this lineup:



There is plenty of talent in our lineup...

 

[Tatanka]

Why is Sobotka even in the lineup much lass in the top 6? He fekking atrocious.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I hear people complain about this duo from the echo chamber at times, but I'm surprised to hear this from you... People like Filipovic, Dellow, Stimson, and Berkshire are big proponents of an Eichel-Skinner pairing for multiple reasons:

• At a high level Jack's natural ability to set up (i.e. passive nature) and Skinner's natural ability to finish (i.e. selfish nature) seem like a match made in heaven
• Eichels biggest strength is transition, but his ability to create HD scoring chances in the O-zone leaves a bit to be desired, whereas
• Skinner's greatest strength is his ability to create in the offensive zone, while he's a bit of a mess between the blue lines.

I'm curious why you feel differently

Also, I actually like the erod-mitts-ko line, it's one that seemed to have some natural chemistry at the end of last year and a line that I had penciled in all off season

I'm aware of their position and the reasoning behind it, but I think the stats community is missing the mark here. Both Skinner and Eichel have scalability issues with other talent, and are significant defensive liabilities. They could have some potential once the blueline starts driving play, but I wouldn't look to that combo right now. There's also the issue of consolidating our two most capable 5v5 offensive players on a single line.

I don't think Jack took the step forward defensively last season that some of his numbers have implied. His impact on CA got better, which is admittedly the most accurate measure of defense (and why stat guys think so highly of that tandem), but his HDCA doubled, and his GA stayed flat. He's also saw a large uptick in OZS last season, so defending teams generally had to go further in order to set up shop. Eichel's overall possession numbers had also improved each year, but that was more a function of his getting better at offense, which is reflected in point totals and shot/xG impact.

At the very least, give them some shot suppression. That's an obvious slot for Berglund if you're already playing him at RW, or even Girgensons, who has somehow done very well in limited run with Eichel. Unfortunately, the plan appears to be tilting the Eichel line and hanging on for dear life elsewhere, maybe sprinkling in some Mittelstadt offense after he spent time working on his irons in San Jose.

As for that line, I already gave my spiel about Okposo further upthread, but here's the short of it: he's clearly off, and needs to get his mojo back on a line where he's not stealing touches from developing players. He needs some time to volume shoot, and the bottom six has needed shot generation since it lost Mittelstadt.

 

[sabremike]

Anaheim is winning with this lineup:



There is plenty of talent in our lineup...

This is a very good point: with the cap and parity throughout the league almost every roster in the league has significant flaws. We have enough assets that there really is no excuse for not being at least competitive.

 

[joshjull]

Anti climatic

 

[dortt]

The kid is playing very well. What the hell do you logically expect?
Key word, logically.

If he's a real generational talent, he would be playing better than a slightly below average NHL defenseman

 

[hizzoner]

You are aware that all the team's most important futures are already on the NHL roster, right?

It's not just improving the roster for the sake of some immediate, empty wins, it's that Risto, Eichel and Reinhart are behind schedule due to the roles they were forced into by bad coaches on bad teams, and I don't want Dahlin and Mittelstadt following suit. Improving the obvious-bad talent now also puts the team in a better position to take on future potential, both through improving the core and role players they fit in around.

Additionally, the idea of developing multi-year AHL projects is practically fiction given the realities of the Cap. Good players are graduating before they hit 80 games in the minors, and arbitrary over-ripening just leads to wasting games of top 6/4 production

 

[hizzoner]

We have a team of under achieving talented wimps. We need a ball busting leader with talent. Maybe in the 2019 draft....

 

[Sabre the Win]

Hes so close. Just switch Skinner with Sheary.. Sheary-Eichel-Pomminville is a line I've wanted to see and then Berglund with Sobotka to make Skinner-Berglund-Reinhart as the other line.

 

[Tatanka]

We have a team of under achieving talented wimps. We need a ball busting leader with talent. Maybe in the 2019 draft....

Yeah lotto tix. I will be a billionaire tomorrow at this time. We have wimps like Rodriguez and Pommers, but SJ and VGk didn't run us out of the building on physicality. They had better players in correct roles and no corpses like Slowposo and Sloboattochina.

 

[sabrebuild]

If he's a real generational talent, he would be playing better than a slightly below average NHL defenseman

How many below average nhl defenders are on pace for 35 points and have played solid defense with multiple big open ice hits? I mean, last year that would have made him the 36th highest scoring nhl defenseman. And I dare say he is already better defensively than several people with higher point total.

Maybe we have different ideas of what average NHL defensemen means?

 

[Der Jaeger]

If the Beaulieu-Dahlin pairing is doing so well, imagine what Pilut and Dahlin could do (aside from speaking Swedish together).

 

[Tatanka]

Hes so close. Just switch Skinner with Sheary.. Sheary-Eichel-Pomminville is a line I've wanted to see and then Berglund with Sobotka to make Skinner-Berglund-Reinhart as the other line.

Why would you want to play 4 vs 5 at ES? Pommers is toast. Twice last night he literally stopped with puck in the neutral zone because he knew he couldn’t do anything with the puck. He waited to give it to someone else rather than risking it getiing taken away in the 12 feet he needed to gain to dump it in.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Why would you want to play 4 vs 5 at ES? Pommers is toast. Twice last night he literally stopped with puck in the neutral zone because he knew he couldn’t do anything with the puck. He waited to give it to someone else rather than risking it getiing taken away in the 12 feet he needed to gain to dump it in.

Pominville's best game has been with Eichel.

 

[DatGuy]

If he's a real generational talent, he would be playing better than a slightly below average NHL defenseman

Wrong