2018-19 Roster Speculation: Tis the season

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

I'd still like to see some early-season shopping for defense. Dahlin is a keeper. Risto without the minutes/responsibilities too. Then after that, getting someone to push everyone down the lineup would be helpful. Having to rely on Bogo, McCabe, and the faltering Scandella with Beaulieu as depth is maddening. I wonder if Pilut could be that guy?

That's what a Matt Tennyson recall is for!

 

[Tatanka]

Hypothetical:

You can sign Skinner or Stone for the same money, and it isn’t cheap, which one?

Anyone think we can do both?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Anyone think we can do both?

No.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Once Ottawa comes back to earth, I hope Botterill makes a run at Chris Tierney. He's a legit 3C in the Eller mold.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'd like to see Reinhart with Mittelstadt. I think that combo would work. Both process the game at a high speed.

 

[Team Cozens]

Once Ottawa comes back to earth, I hope Botterill makes a run at Chris Tierney. He's a legit 3C in the Eller mold.

Hoping Ottawa falls back to earth during our back to back games!

 

[Aladyyn]

Hypothetical:

You can sign Skinner or Stone for the same money, and it isn’t cheap, which one?

Gimme the guy who immediately becomes the best player on this team.

 

[Tatanka]

Gimme the guy who immediately becomes the best player on this team.

I don’t think either would be the best player on the team.

 

[Goathead]

Gimme the guy who immediately becomes the best player on this team.

I legitimately debated this exact post before I settled on my actual response. I think there is merit in saying Stone is the better player between him and Eichel at this point. Not saying I would make that trade though because of position.

 

[Djp]

I'd still like to see some early-season shopping for defense. Dahlin is a keeper. Risto without the minutes/responsibilities too. Then after that, getting someone to push everyone down the lineup would be helpful. Having to rely on Bogo, McCabe, and the faltering Scandella with Beaulieu as depth is maddening. I wonder if Pilut could be that guy?

I have said before in looking ahead to 2020 buffalo appears to have..

Pilut-Risto
Guhle-Borgen
Dahlin with what ??

In 2020 summer bogo, Nelson and Scandella are UFA.
In 2019 beaulieu and mccabe are RFAs

Buffalo has prospects yet to sign and Hickey in Rochester

I have said before about if they re-sign one if the 5 above or they acquire or sign a Dman.


If they were to target someone who was 23-25 by trading Mccabe, an extra forward, and a late 1st ( San Jose).

Who to target depends on what side does Dahlin play

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Once Ottawa comes back to earth, I hope Botterill makes a run at Chris Tierney. He's a legit 3C in the Eller mold.

Pretty good idea, I like him. Although who knows if Ottawa will ever really sell-off everyone like we're assuming. Maybe they weather the storm of the rebuild with everyone who isn't UFA. Maybe just Stone and Duchene leave.

 

[EichHart]

I think we should resign Skinner. He is in his prime. Has speed, a great shot, and is incredible along the boards. He is a good compliment to Eichel. I also can't believe we have 3 first round picks where we can go BPA at each spot. If Ullmark continues to impress, we might already have our goalie of the future. Things are looking better, but Housley is a big issue.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Bring Olofsson up to play with Eichel and Skinner.

Give us some shiny new stuff to look at.

 

[TehDoak]

I'm amazed that the fact that we have two prime examples in Moulson/Okposo of the folly of signing wingers to prime UFA contracts is, and people are still saying signing Skinner is a good idea. I like Skinner, and I like the price we paid for him in trade....but we aren't a skinner away from cup contention. And we aren't in our contention window.

 

[ZZamboni]

I'm amazed that the fact that we have two prime examples in Moulson/Okposo of the folly of signing wingers to prime UFA contracts is, and people are still saying signing Skinner is a good idea. I like Skinner, and I like the price we paid for him in trade....but we aren't a skinner away from cup contention. And we aren't in our contention window.

But but but ... THIS winger will be much different. I just know it! He has like speed n dangles n stuff.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Pretty good idea, I like him. Although who knows if Ottawa will ever really sell-off everyone like we're assuming. Maybe they weather the storm of the rebuild with everyone who isn't UFA. Maybe just Stone and Duchene leave.

Unless he's posturing for best player on a bad team inflation way early, they have no reason to give up years of control.

The teams I want to poke around are the Rangers - namely for Chris Krieder and assorted depth scorers - and the Panthers - Bjugstadt and Pysyk. The Wings would be another option, but they have nobody besides Nyquist, and will hold him until the deadline.

On defense, Spurgeon's my guy, but the Wild will hold off a rebuild as long as they can point to their record. There's also the Kings, but our usual targets in Muzzin/Martinez have been relatively poor. Gudas might be another name if the Flyers remain bad.

 

[enthusiast]

But but but ... THIS winger will be much different. I just know it! He has like speed n dangles n stuff.

indeed it's much smarter to say that two samples prove a rule lol

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I'm amazed that the fact that we have two prime examples in Moulson/Okposo of the folly of signing wingers to prime UFA contracts is, and people are still saying signing Skinner is a good idea. I like Skinner, and I like the price we paid for him in trade....but we aren't a skinner away from cup contention. And we aren't in our contention window.

If we're comparing him to Sabres, Skinner is somewhere around the Vanek/Briere tiers, and will cost a much lower percentage of cap. The issue, as per usual, is term.

Edit - At the moment, until Mittelstadt clicks or the Sabres trade for a Stone, Panarin, Trochek, Carter, etc, or rehabilitate a Saad/Niederriter, they don't have an in-house path to replacing Skinner's production. That player may end up being their 2019 first, even if it's in historic run to 8-15 range.

 

[TehDoak]

indeed it's much smarter to say that two samples prove a rule lol

It's much easier to find examples of bad UFA signings than good ones.

2015: Moulson, Grabovski, Bolland, Statsny, Hemsky, Vanek
2016: Lucic, Brouwer, Eriksson, Okposo, Weisse, Backes, Ladd

Every summer, there is an endless list of awful contracts given out.

For every Eric Staal style steal, you can find 10 absolute disasters. It's well documented that forward production drops every year after 27. Skinner will be 27 in May.

 

[EichHart]

I'm amazed that the fact that we have two prime examples in Moulson/Okposo of the folly of signing wingers to prime UFA contracts is, and people are still saying signing Skinner is a good idea. I like Skinner, and I like the price we paid for him in trade....but we aren't a skinner away from cup contention. And we aren't in our contention window.

We are in Eichels prime right now. When is our contention window?

 

[enthusiast]

It's much easier to find examples of bad UFA signings than good ones.

2015: Moulson, Grabovski, Bolland, Statsny, Hemsky, Vanek
2016: Lucic, Brouwer, Eriksson, Okposo, Weisse, Backes, Ladd

Every summer, there is an endless list of awful contracts given out.

For every Eric Staal style steal, you can find 10 absolute disasters. It's well documented that forward production drops every year after 27. Skinner will be 27 in May.

Without even diving into the relative comparative value of the players you listed, the reason so many disappointing, deteriorating players are signed in UFA is because the would-be exceptions are re-signed by their teams prior to leaving.

I think the youngest player in that group you provided was like 30 at time of signing anyway

 

[enthusiast]

In any case, the post I was responding to was mocking the idea of re-signing Skinner because Matt Moulson fell off a cliff and Okposo literally almost died. It doesn't follow at all.

 

[EichHart]

Without even diving into the relative comparative value of the players you listed, the reason so many disappointing, deteriorating players are signed in UFA is because the would-be exceptions are re-signed by their teams prior to leaving.

I think the youngest player in that group you provided was like 30 at time of signing anyway

Yep, NHL forwards prime is between 21-26, after that they start to decline. There is a reason that most FA signings fail, one thing most of those names have in common are they are all slow in addition to the age as you already mentioned.. Skinner is the exact opposite. He is fast, skilled, and still relatively young.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

It's much easier to find examples of bad UFA signings than good ones.

2015: Moulson, Grabovski, Bolland, Statsny, Hemsky, Vanek
2016: Lucic, Brouwer, Eriksson, Okposo, Weisse, Backes, Ladd

Every summer, there is an endless list of awful contracts given out.

For every Eric Staal style steal, you can find 10 absolute disasters. It's well documented that forward production drops every year after 27. Skinner will be 27 in May.

This is nit-picking, but Stastny was a part of the longest playoff run of the Backes/Pietrangelo era, and then had a great run with the Jets.

As for Skinner, he could lose 25% of his current ES scoring rate and remain ahead of your bust class' contract year production. Your list is also largely self-selecting for players who switched teams, as by my calculations only Vanek played 80+ games with the team that retained him.

 

[1972]

But but but ... THIS winger will be much different. I just know it! He has like speed n dangles n stuff.

Great post