2018-19 Roster Speculation: Tis the season

[DatGuy]

How many below average nhl defenders are on pace for 35 points and have played solid defense with multiple big open ice hits? I mean, last year that would have made him the 36th highest scoring nhl defenseman. And I dare say he is already better defensively than several people with higher point total.

Maybe we have different ideas of what average NHL defensemen means?

People are silly. Don’t waste your “breath”

 

[Tatanka]

Pominville's best game has been with Eichel.

At Eichel’s expense. Pommers is useless. Should be riding the press box or get Moulsoned.

 

[Fezzy126]

I'm aware of their position and the reasoning behind it, but I think the stats community is missing the mark here. Both Skinner and Eichel have scalability issues with other talent, and are significant defensive liabilities. They could have some potential once the blueline starts driving play, but I wouldn't look to that combo right now. There's also the issue of consolidating our two most capable 5v5 offensive players on a single line.

I don't think Jack took the step forward defensively last season that some of his numbers have implied. His impact on CA got better, which is admittedly the most accurate measure of defense (and why stat guys think so highly of that tandem), but his HDCA doubled, and his GA stayed flat. He's also saw a large uptick in OZS last season, so defending teams generally had to go further in order to set up shop. Eichel's overall possession numbers had also improved each year, but that was more a function of his getting better at offense, which is reflected in point totals and shot/xG impact.

At the very least, give them some shot suppression. That's an obvious slot for Berglund if you're already playing him at RW, or even Girgensons, who has somehow done very well in limited run with Eichel. Unfortunately, the plan appears to be tilting the Eichel line and hanging on for dear life elsewhere, maybe sprinkling in some Mittelstadt offense after he spent time working on his irons in San Jose.

As for that line, I already gave my spiel about Okposo further upthread, but here's the short of it: he's clearly off, and needs to get his mojo back on a line where he's not stealing touches from developing players. He needs some time to volume shoot, and the bottom six has needed shot generation since it lost Mittelstadt.

Yeah, I definitely appreciate the concerns about defensive impact and also the putting all your eggs in one basket. But I think I'd still give them a 5-10 game run and see if they can form an elite level of offensive chemistry that can overcome their flaws. If they don't mesh, f*** it, separate them and spread out the even strength scoring. I felt the same way about Kane at first too.

 

[1972]

If he's a real generational talent, he would be playing better than a slightly below average NHL defenseman

Generational talent is such an overused unfair term to label these kids, they are just kids. Connor McDavid was a generational talent, the rest are elite talents. Is Dahlin as good as I ever could have hoped at 18? I mean I guess not but he's getting better and better and shows signs of what made him so highly regarded.

Isn't the younger Norris trophy winner of all time 22 years old? Think about that, that would be Dahlin in his fourth season. Now lets look at forwards, McDavid and Crosby won the scoring title at 19/20 years old, Laine just about won the rocket at that age too, defenders don't come into this league and dominate at 18, period.

 

[slip]

See if your children randomly pulling roster player names out of a hat can come up with worse lines than Housley. I bet they can't.

 

[nickdawg95]

Sheary-Eichel-E-rod
Skinner-reinhart-Pominvile
Sobotka-Berglund-okposo
Elle-Girgs-larrson

cause why not

 

[Uberpecker]

Has Reinhart actually said he dislikes playing center, as someone on here once claimed? Unless that's true I want to see him in the middle, maybe centering Skinner.

 

[Sabre the Win]

At Eichel’s expense. Pommers is useless. Should be riding the press box or get Moulsoned.

Pominville can score goals still, he cant carry it in but he still knows where to go to get set up for goals. It benefits them both if Pominville can score goals.

If anyone needs to get Moulsoned it would be Okposo.

 

[Tatanka]

Pomminstein has 5 useful minutes a game and that is usually spent in warm ups. He simply cannot play at top line pace. He spends the vast majority in the nz regardless of where the play is. He can’t keep up and can’t get back. He is a third/ fourth liner at this point.

 

[GellMann]

Anaheim is winning with this lineup:



There is plenty of talent in our lineup...

To be fair, that defense is outrageous, and Gibson has like a .960 save percentage or something. They're playing bad hockey. They allowed 30 shots on goal in the second period alone against Dallas

 

[GellMann]

Has Reinhart actually said he dislikes playing center, as someone on here once claimed? Unless that's true I want to see him in the middle, maybe centering Skinner.

Jack definitely said something about Sam preferring to play wing, in the spittin' chicklets podcast he was on. Not sure if there was more context to it

 

[GellMann]

Pominville was in the one spot where I wasn't going to complain about him.

Now he's next to Jack.

Great.

 

[Aladyyn]

Has Reinhart actually said he dislikes playing center, as someone on here once claimed? Unless that's true I want to see him in the middle, maybe centering Skinner.

I'm like, 99.9% sure he'd prefer to play center over being on Sobotka's wing.

 

[Club]

This shouldn’t be so hard.

Thompson down, Smith up.

Smith - Eichel - Rodrigues
Sheary - Mitts - Reinhart
Skinner - Berglund - Okposo
Girgensons - Sobotka - Pominville

Definitely not a fan of putting Smith on the 1st line, but who knows what will happen

 

[Uberpecker]

Jack definitely said something about Sam preferring to play wing, in the spittin' chicklets podcast he was on. Not sure if there was more context to it

Thanks for clearing that up!

 

[1972]

Sheary - Eichel - ERod
Skinner - Reinhart - Mittelstadt


How is that not a top 6?

 

[1972]

I haven’t been looking at guys stats to much this year, but some guys really need to pick it up...

Sam Reinhart 1 even strength assist in 7 games playing almost 20 a night? LOL

Jack Eichel isn’t much better, 2 even strength points in 7 games. At least he’s scored a few.

At some point these two players have to do something offensively at even strength.

 

[Fezzy126]

To be fair, that defense is outrageous, and Gibson has like a .960 save percentage or something. They're playing bad hockey. They allowed 30 shots on goal in the second period alone against Dallas

Listen here... Your logic and factual observations have no place around here...

You're absolutely correct, I used a hyberbolic example with holes, but the larger point remains. Every team in the league has a similar amount of 'drags' scattered throughout their lineups, and most of them are competitive on a nightly basis. Our lineup has more than enough talent to compete.

Next time I'll use New Jersey as my example

 

[1972]

Tage Thompson should be sent to Rochester for someone the second that plane lands in Buffalo.

 

[HaNotsri]

Tage Thompson should be sent to Rochester for someone the second that plane lands in Buffalo.

Moulson. That would be hilarious.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

So in your mind the only good choice Murray left the franchise, was to tank two years in a row, to excise deadweight and then maybe next year we can be moderately competitive or maybe 2021-2022?

At which point we can figure out what to do with Berglund’s 3.75 million for the last year or two?

Man, if that was the pitch to Pegula by Botts, throw me off the Peace Bridge.

I don't know if that route is the only option, or even a "good" option. But...after Murray the organization had a handful of very good young players, vets with issues (not necessarily O'Reilly), mediocre/bad depth players, and a terrible AHL affiliate that wasn't developing talent. Add in the usual lack of UFAs and good HCs that ever want to come to Buffalo, and I'm not sure there was ANY "good" option. "Accelerating the re-build" worked so beautifully though...

Botterill wants to build the team the only way he can have reliable control...through draft and development. I'm not sure how you build a contender quickly that way, considering the negative factors that are always against the Sabres. By all means throw a Brinks truck at a quality veteran HC, but we can't make them want to be in Buffalo. May as well throw a dart to decide who in the front office has the most say over hiring a HC, but somebody has to WANT to be in Buffalo for anything to happen.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

You are aware that all the team's most important futures are already on the NHL roster, right?

It's not just improving the roster for the sake of some immediate, empty wins, it's that Risto, Eichel and Reinhart are behind schedule due to the roles they were forced into by bad coaches on bad teams, and I don't want Dahlin and Mittelstadt following suit. Improving the obvious-bad talent now also puts the team in a better position to take on future potential, both through improving the core and role players they fit in around.

Additionally, the idea of developing multi-year AHL projects is practically fiction given the realities of the Cap. Good players are graduating before they hit 80 games in the minors, and arbitrary over-ripening just leads to wasting games of top 6/4 production.

HELL NO I'm not aware that the Sabres most important futures are on the roster now!! How can you possibly say that?!? Asplund is definitely NOT a checking line C within 18 months that we sorely lack? Thompson, Olofsson and Nylander are definitely NOT quality wing depth over Pominville, Okposo, or Larsson?? Pilut isn't a potential top-four guy, and Guhle or Borgen aren't better depth than Bogosian or Beaulieu??? How can you say these players aren't at least POTENTIALLY important players?!?

All these guys might be up before or after 80 games anyway, and I'm not suggesting any certain amount of games before they get promoted. I only suggest that they will probably get called up for good once they prove they are ready to be effective NHLers, not just better than the fodder on the big club (which used to be the deciding factor).

Wanting a better development path for Dahlin and Mittelstadt is fine, but what is Botterill supposed to do about contracts like Bogosian, Okposo and Pominville? I'm not going to get into O'Reilly because that has it's own thread, and I think it's clear that that situation wasn't solely up to Botterill. I really don't see what you mean with the bolded. How does a marginal upgrade in the supporting cast improve the future, unless you're talking about a good prospect that can fill that roster spot effectively for years to come? To me that sounds like waiting on what we already have in Rochester...when they're ready.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Anyone who has watched every game should, just from the eye test, be able to see that Dahlin is already far and away our most talented player. His skating, his passing, his hockey IQ, his physicality, his shot and shot selection. All these things are in another stratosphere compared to just about anyone on our roster not named Jack or Casey (EDIT: or Samson). We haven't seen his kind of raw talent in I don't even know how long.

 

[sabrebuild]

I don't know if that route is the only option, or even a "good" option. But...after Murray the organization had a handful of very good young players, vets with issues (not necessarily O'Reilly), mediocre/bad depth players, and a terrible AHL affiliate that wasn't developing talent. Add in the usual lack of UFAs and good HCs that ever want to come to Buffalo, and I'm not sure there was ANY "good" option. "Accelerating the re-build" worked so beautifully though...

Botterill wants to build the team the only way he can have reliable control...through draft and development. I'm not sure how you build a contender quickly that way, considering the negative factors that are always against the Sabres. By all means throw a Brinks truck at a quality veteran HC, but we can't make them want to be in Buffalo. May as well throw a dart to decide who in the front office has the most say over hiring a HC, but somebody has to WANT to be in Buffalo for anything to happen.

So basically yes, you think the only option after Murray got the team to 8th from last, bad, but not league embarrassing, was to tank all the way to last and continue to stay at that level for at least another year, because woe is Buffalo?

I’m not defending Murray as having done good, I had many gripes, including hating the Bylsma hires. But that’s where your comments don’t make sense to me. Buffalo missed on Babcock, but chose to get a name coach in Bylsma. That doesn’t sound like no one will come to Buffalo. Housley was one of the most hyped coaching hires in the last couple years. We took him from a Championship caliber team. Don’t mistake badly misidentified choices, from an inability to recruit talent with a mega rich owner. Same thing with bringing in Okposo as a top ufa or Skinner accepting a trade. The idea that Buffalo is a black hole for bringing in people is a pre-Pegula mindset not backed up by facts any more than 95% of the league.

And what was left behind talent wise? Ppg center, two way 60+ point center. Two 50 point wingers. Risto. Two top ten picks/prospects. I mean for the faults this roster has to be a contender, it had plenty of decent options to be competitive. He turned it into a last place team.

Nobody is saying Botts should have made them a cup contender in year 1 or 2. But they have clearly regressed under Botts so far. And while I certainly support building thru the draft in general, imagine if we hadn’t won the lottery? What would this team look like without Dahlin being its best defenseman? I like Svech and Tkachuk and the Montreal kid. But those guys might help or bottom 6 today at best. You don’t win the lottery, we are guaranteed to be in last place this year. And there’s a great chance we pick 3-4 this year, which is no guarantee of a great player.

The whole reason tanking made sense was you had a guarantee of a top 2 pick. Intentionally letting your team bottom out again is moronic. The alternative, they ranked accidentally is just as terrifying.

Did I mention we traded O’Reilly, for a guy who isn’t that good anymore and got healthy scratched? St. Louis is giving us a pick in the 15-25 range. Again a pick, that even it works out, is not helping us for 3 years at least.

Look, I really hope we turn it around, and Mitts starts tearing it up. But there’s no way around the fact that these moves by Botts look terrible from an overall strategy perspective. Good moves like picking up Sheary and Skinner are annihilated by trading O’Reilly. Good move like trading for Scandella is wasted by not replacing the depth forwards used in the trade.

Bah, can’t wait for 2022.

 

[joshjull]

I think if you swapped Reinhart and Sobotka's names everyone's reaction would shift by 180 degrees.

Why would you think that?

If Skinner and Sheary were flipped I’d like it more. Skinner/Sobotka/Sam had a successful preseason game together so there would at least be some basis for trying it. Does Phil keep his notes from then?