Pre-Game Talk: 2014 NHL Entry Draft Part 1

[Tiranis]

Was looking through some WHL stuff... came across Mitch Holmberg, lighting it up.
So he's an overager who was undrafted and still unsigned?

Anyone seen him play?

Gillis with the no real risk Dane Fox type signing?

edit: theres lots of these guys. guess being older and dominating does not count?

Dane Fox has many things going for him and would've gotten drafted if not for his off-ice issues. Holmberg has nothing going for him other than his scoring. Perimeter player who is weak, soft, defensively suspect and brings nothing else to the table. Maybe there's something there but I doubt that teams are lining up to sign him. He'll likely get an AHL deal and will have to prove his worth.

 

[Rick Rocket]

Dane Fox has many things going for him and would've gotten drafted if not for his off-ice issues. Holmberg has nothing going for him other than his scoring. Perimeter player who is weak, soft, defensively suspect and brings nothing else to the table. Maybe there's something there but I doubt that teams are lining up to sign him. He'll likely get an AHL deal and will have to prove his worth.

thanks. I had to ask

 

[thefeebster]

Dusting off the cobwebs here. Watch the Calgary/PA game tonight. arsmaster's enthusiasm made me =D

Let's just say I would have no qualms picking Virtanen in the top 10. If there was one game you would have to watch to get a look at Virtanen, this was a good one.

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowess, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

Something i didn't know, but the commentators mentioned that he was fastest skater for the CHL prospects game for both forward and backwards skating tests. That is highly impressive for a forward to beat out the d-men as well. Commentators were raving about how they have yet to see a more aggressive player in the WHL when carrying puck. He will go straight through Dmen. Defenders have to watch their fronts/backs when Virtanen is around - Ask Morrissey! He got drilled tonight.

That said, there are some things that i've noticed in this game and others i've watched. Seems like he tries to do too much himself, instead of perhaps the simpler play or using his teammates for support. Makes some questionable defensive plays at times, leading to turnovers. Also, I would like to see his coach play him more on the PK.

 

[Wilch]

Dusting off the cobwebs here. Watch the Calgary/PA game tonight. arsmaster's enthusiasm made me =D

Let's just say I would have no qualms picking Virtanen in the top 10. If there was one game you would have to watch to get a look at Virtanen, this was a good one.

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowness, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

Something i didn't know, but the commentators mentioned that he was fastest skater for the CHL prospects game for both forward and backwards skating tests. That is highly impressive for a forward to beat out the d-men as well. Commentators were raving about how they have yet to see a more aggressive player in the WHL when carrying puck. He will go straight through Dmen. Defenders have to watch their fronts/backs when Virtanen is around - Ask Morrissey! He got drilled tonight.

That said, there are some things that i've noticed in this game and others i've watched. Seems like he tries to do too much himself, instead of perhaps the simpler play or using his teammates for support. Makes some questionable defensive plays at times, leading to turnovers. Also, I would like to see his coach play him more on the PK.

Welcome back feeb!

Now, we've all been waiting for your 2014 top 10 list.

 

[StIllmatic]

Dusting off the cobwebs here. Watch the Calgary/PA game tonight. arsmaster's enthusiasm made me =D

Let's just say I would have no qualms picking Virtanen in the top 10. If there was one game you would have to watch to get a look at Virtanen, this was a good one.

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowess, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

Something i didn't know, but the commentators mentioned that he was fastest skater for the CHL prospects game for both forward and backwards skating tests. That is highly impressive for a forward to beat out the d-men as well. Commentators were raving about how they have yet to see a more aggressive player in the WHL when carrying puck. He will go straight through Dmen. Defenders have to watch their fronts/backs when Virtanen is around - Ask Morrissey! He got drilled tonight.

That said, there are some things that i've noticed in this game and others i've watched. Seems like he tries to do too much himself, instead of perhaps the simpler play or using his teammates for support. Makes some questionable defensive plays at times, leading to turnovers. Also, I would like to see his coach play him more on the PK.

I'd like to think it was my Youtube comment that brought you back

Everyone's comments on Virtanen made me assume he was roughly 6''2. Surprised that he's listed at 5''11.

 

[GPNuck]

the WHL website has Virtanen listed at 6'2 , 210 lbs... I can't see anywhere showing him listed at 5'11" where did you see it?

 

[StIllmatic]

the WHL website has Virtanen listed at 6'2 , 210 lbs... I can't see anywhere showing him listed at 5'11" where did you see it?

Hockey DB, and that was my mistake. I don't know what I was thinking. They're not reliable for height/mass. Nevermind!

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Dane Fox has many things going for him and would've gotten drafted if not for his off-ice issues. Holmberg has nothing going for him other than his scoring. Perimeter player who is weak, soft, defensively suspect and brings nothing else to the table. Maybe there's something there but I doubt that teams are lining up to sign him. He'll likely get an AHL deal and will have to prove his worth.

Though the same thing was said about Holmberg's team-mate Tyler Johnson...

 

[BerSTUzzi]

Dusting off the cobwebs here. Watch the Calgary/PA game tonight. arsmaster's enthusiasm made me =D

Let's just say I would have no qualms picking Virtanen in the top 10. If there was one game you would have to watch to get a look at Virtanen, this was a good one.

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowess, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

Something i didn't know, but the commentators mentioned that he was fastest skater for the CHL prospects game for both forward and backwards skating tests. That is highly impressive for a forward to beat out the d-men as well. Commentators were raving about how they have yet to see a more aggressive player in the WHL when carrying puck. He will go straight through Dmen. Defenders have to watch their fronts/backs when Virtanen is around - Ask Morrissey! He got drilled tonight.

That said, there are some things that i've noticed in this game and others i've watched. Seems like he tries to do too much himself, instead of perhaps the simpler play or using his teammates for support. Makes some questionable defensive plays at times, leading to turnovers. Also, I would like to see his coach play him more on the PK.

When I watched him on Sat. vs the Blazers he made 3-4 plays that I don't think anyone on or off the ice would have tried to make. On one play it was a 3 on 2 and one of the Calgary players drove the net, instead of passing to the open player he tried to shoot the puck off the guy's stick driving to the net (guy wasn't looking back). Almost worked as the puck hit the post.

Really like his aggressive play and that shot is ridiculous.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Agreed. The canucks have so many prospect holes just take the BPA unless it is a Dman that projects top pairing with a high degree of certainty and in this draft I think the forwards are BPA.

The one good thing about Dmen is you can get some quality #1s drafting in after the first 2 or 3 picks (Doughty #2, Petroangelo #4, OEL #6, Trouba #9, Fowler #12, Jones #4) and possibly more like Lindholm #6, Ristolainen #8 if they prove more at NHL level.

If the Nucks were forced to tank and rebuilt hard - take forward 1-3 range and look for a 4-8 range if one was BPA faller from the top 3.

More and more, BPA is becoming relative IMO. Drafting efficiency per lists, debatable. For me to draft a Dman high, he would have to be an epic faller, similar to Fowler, or a Dman with a very rare skillset, like Jones. Beyond those unique cases, I would avoid taking one high.

There's a ton of material out there that supports the same. Below are some articles that explore/shed light on the issue. Some of the authors are pretty balanced in going BPA (Metzer in particular), but even they cite that the probabilities still rest with the forwards in the top100.







http://blackgoldhockey.com/where-do-top-pairing-defencemen-come-from-pt-1/

As expected, the draft is the most common method of obtaining top talent. What’s surprising to me though is the high percentage of players that were obtained outside of the draft, at ~50%. It’s always seemed as if top-pairing defencemen were drafted by their respective teams and held on to until they were grey but this list suggests that around half could be made available while they’re still top-tier rear guards or are at least able to grow into that role.

http://smashville247.net/index.php/...d-defense-comparison-nashville-predators.html

Drafting Dmen over Forwards revisited.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013...-might-be-rolling-the-dice-taking-seth-jones/

Article talks about more and more GMs moving away from Draftng Dmen 1st overall.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklu...rd-of-Picking-Defensemen-in-1st-Round/1/56048

Generally speaking, defensemen make for riskier first-round Draft picks than forwards. While there are certainly exceptions, NHL defensemen typically take longer to fully develop than forwards.

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html

A look at the entire subset of the "Defensive Dman".

http://www.oilogosphere.com/drafting-defenseman/swin/

An Oiler blog account of why they should not draft a Dman in 2012, a very heavy year for Defensemen in general.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/6/21/920352/detroit-isnt-that-great-at

Specifically talks about drafting Dmen in the top10, and goalies in general (witchcraft). It's data is based on a spreadsheet tracking drafts from 1994-2009 (downloadable).

http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.ca/2009/06/dont-draft-what-you-can-get-buy-at.html

From here there are two possible draft strategies that make sense to me. The first is having a bias toward forwards in the first 100 picks. The reason for this is that, of the best forwards in the draft, 78% were taken in the first 100 picks compared to only 63% of the top defenders.

http://www.birdwatchersanonymous.com/2009/6/24/922606/a-new-approach-to-which-nhl-teams

Blog hit on draft efficiency and why BPA is unclear no matter where you pick.

http://www.milehighhockey.com/2013/...l-defensemen-drafted-in-the-top-10-since-2003

This analysis shows that around 13 of the 24 blueliners drafted in the top 10 over the past decade that have played in the NHL can be considered bona-fied Top 4 defensemen.

 

[arsmaster*]

Dusting off the cobwebs here. Watch the Calgary/PA game tonight. arsmaster's enthusiasm made me =D

Let's just say I would have no qualms picking Virtanen in the top 10. If there was one game you would have to watch to get a look at Virtanen, this was a good one.

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowess, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

Something i didn't know, but the commentators mentioned that he was fastest skater for the CHL prospects game for both forward and backwards skating tests. That is highly impressive for a forward to beat out the d-men as well. Commentators were raving about how they have yet to see a more aggressive player in the WHL when carrying puck. He will go straight through Dmen. Defenders have to watch their fronts/backs when Virtanen is around - Ask Morrissey! He got drilled tonight.

That said, there are some things that i've noticed in this game and others i've watched. Seems like he tries to do too much himself, instead of perhaps the simpler play or using his teammates for support. Makes some questionable defensive plays at times, leading to turnovers. Also, I would like to see his coach play him more on the PK.

Ahh a feebster post. All is right in the world again.

Should have seen the Friday game vs the giants. He only had one goal but the rushes and offensive hits when he had the puck were something to behold.

Loved that hit on Morrissey last night. Morrisey tries to take his ice and hit jake and bam....he's on his ass.

 

[Tiranis]

Sounds like I should watch a replay of that game when I get a chance.

 

[PhilMick]

Ahh a feebster post. All is right in the world again.

Should have seen the Friday game vs the giants. He only had one goal but the rushes and offensive hits when he had the puck were something to behold.

Loved that hit on Morrissey last night. Morrisey tries to take his ice and hit jake and bam....he's on his ass.

Ok it's not weird if other people feel that way too.

 

[tc 23]

If feebster's recommending it, sounds like I'll have to watch that game.

 

[Outside99*]

Nikita Scherbak impressed me at Subway, also plus player on a very minus team as a WHL rookie.

 

[Rick Rocket]

Isn't Virtanen a BC boy?
Id get him if Nylander is gone by our pick...

 

[PhilMick]

Isn't Virtanen a BC boy?
Id get him if Nylander is gone by our pick...

Abbotsford!

 

[Addison Rae]

Is it fair to say Virtanen is comparable to Evander Kane? To be completely honest I haven't exactly watched him play, but reading scouting reports I see a connection.

 

[PhilMick]

Is it fair to say Virtanen is comparable to Evander Kane? To be completely honest I haven't exactly watched him play, but reading scouting reports I see a connection.

Not far off really. He might be faster than Evander, but probably doesn't have his fists of fury.

Also I think his phone is made of electronic components, and not money.

 

[Verviticus]

Also I think his phone is made of electronic components, and not money.

well, thats a shame

 

[Verviticus]

The most important word to describe Virtanen is rare. Tough to find these kind of players. To have his speed, his physical prowess, his fearlessness, and goal scoring ability is quite something to watch. Its exciting hockey. He is a north-south player, no doubt about that. And he will shoot without hesitation.

two things, one i already asked arsmaster who had a decent response but

A: do you think his low number of assists is systemic (bad teammates/whatever) or indicative of his passing ability and hockey sense (or something else, maybe he breaks out in hives when someone other than him scores)
B: do you think his playstyle carries a higher than average injury risk

 

[Evidence]

I was impressed by Virtanen last night, I thought he and Draisaitl played well but Virtanen had the better game. I've only seen both guys play a few times, from what I've seen Draisaitl has better vision and playmaking ability and is more effective at using his teammates both guys play with an edge and have a physical aspect to their games and Virtanen seems to have the better shot with the quicker release. I don't see a big gap between these two players and would be happy if the Canucks drafted either guy.

 

[arsmaster*]

Not far off really. He might be faster than Evander, but probably doesn't have his fists of fury.

Also I think his phone is made of electronic components, and not money.

Fists of fury? Pfft. He beat up Matt Cooke. So did Steve Moore. Not really a ringing endorsement of ones fighting ability.

That said, I think Evander Kane is a pretty good comp for Virtanen.

---

On his low assist totals, I think this is a case where things just haven't evened out this year. The totals were almost identical last year. This year he's just the trigger man. From the games I've seen this year, they set their PP up for him to shoot through screens. His shot is exceptional at the WHL level.

Look at a guy like Curtis Lazar's stats from last year. Heavily slanted to goals, this year their back to 50/50.

I don't think Virtanen will ever be an exceptional playmaker, but he can make plays. He's just a really direct player.

Highlights from last nights game: http://www.hitmenhockey.com/video/35848

 

[PhilMick]

Fists of fury? Pfft. He beat up Matt Cooke. So did Steve Moore. Not really a ringing endorsement of ones fighting ability.

That said, I think Evander Kane is a pretty good comp for Virtanen.

---

On his low assist totals, I think this is a case where things just haven't evened out this year. The totals were almost identical last year. This year he's just the trigger man. From the games I've seen this year, they set their PP up for him to shoot through screens. His shot is exceptional at the WHL level.

Look at a guy like Curtis Lazar's stats from last year. Heavily slanted to goals, this year their back to 50/50.

I don't think Virtanen will ever be an exceptional playmaker, but he can make plays. He's just a really direct player.

Highlights from last nights game: http://www.hitmenhockey.com/video/35848

For what it's worth, I was at a Hitmen game last year, I think it was against Kootenay, and they were just blowing them out, and Virtanen made a reDONKulous spinning no look backpass, like Bert used to make. Coulda been a fluke, but I reacted like an NBA benchwarmer whose teammate just threw down a huge dunk. You know those guys, they never actually take off their track suits and always have a towel around their necks.

edit: Forgot to mention that the pass went tape to tape for a goal lols.

 

[arttk]

Fists of fury? Pfft. He beat up Matt Cooke. So did Steve Moore. Not really a ringing endorsement of ones fighting ability.

That said, I think Evander Kane is a pretty good comp for Virtanen.

---

On his low assist totals, I think this is a case where things just haven't evened out this year. The totals were almost identical last year. This year he's just the trigger man. From the games I've seen this year, they set their PP up for him to shoot through screens. His shot is exceptional at the WHL level.

Look at a guy like Curtis Lazar's stats from last year. Heavily slanted to goals, this year their back to 50/50.

I don't think Virtanen will ever be an exceptional playmaker, but he can make plays. He's just a really direct player.

Highlights from last nights game: http://www.hitmenhockey.com/video/35848

That toe drag and shot.