2014 NHL Draft Discussion - Part IV ** Isles-Keep 5th Pick**

[MattMartin]

Mind blowing stat of the day...


In the last 18 years we had the 5th pick 7 times (38%).

1997 Brewer
1999 Connolly
2000 Torres
2008 Traded to Toronto
2010 Nino
2011 Strome
2014 ?????

Overall selections at #5 the last 20 years.

94 Jeff O'Neill
95 Daymond Langkow
96 Richard Jackman
97 Eric Brewer
98 Vitaly Vishnevsky
99 Tim Connolly
00 Raffi Torres
01 Stanislav Chistov
02 Ryan Whitney
03 Thomas Vanek
04 Blake Wheeler
05 Carey Price
06 Phil Kessel
07 Karl Alzner
08 Luke Schenn *From Islanders
09 Brayden Schenn
10 Nino Niederreiter
11 Ryan Strome
12 Morgan Rielly
13 Elias Lindholm

 

[BillD]

I never mentioned Clutterbuck, but if he trades the #5 pick for anything other than a good offensive 1st line wing, or a top Dman, he's going to lose that trade (like he loses EVERY trade). I have no faith in him tradewise, and I pray that we keep the #5 overall pick. He doesn't have the intelligence as a GM to make a trade that is even, let alone in his favor.

I do not think Snow's problems with trading are because he doesn't understand the relative value of players. I think it is because he paints himself into corners and makes bets on things turning his way. When they do not, either because he overplayed his hand or misread the conditions or market, he has no way out but to swallow his medicine.

 

[MattMartin]

Let me simplify it for you. Forget Garth, forget Mike and forget Nino. You're right all those guys played more than ten productive years in these league after being traded. Those types of trades don't work because you're basically trading away assets that can give you 800-1000 games at the NHL level for a few seasons.

Maybe Garth will surprise us and get JVR or Kane. As I said I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and don't think that he'll trade it, but philosophically I'm opposed to this type of trade and I'm saying it upfront not in hindsight.

Fair enough. I did some research of the 5th overall pick for the last 20 years above, take a gander and tell me what you think. I think there has been mostly solid picks with a few lames.

 

[MattMartin]

5000th post

Want to remember the milestone = )

 

[A Pointed Stick]

5000th post

Want to remember the milestone = )

They don't count your first post, so that was actually 5001.

 

[original islander]

Fair enough. I did some research of the 5th overall pick for the last 20 years above, take a gander and tell me what you think. I think there has been mostly solid picks with a few lames.

No problem. Good research by you.

I do want to clear something up from my earlier posts- if we get JVR or Kane those would be good trades because we would get 8-10 years of service. It would surprise me though because they could probably use those assets to get the first overall pick.

Again I don't think that Garth will trade the pick. He appears to be learning from prior mistakes as shown by addressing the goaltending situation. Halak for a fourth is robbery.

 

[crasherino]

If Garth is thinking about trading the pick doesn't the Boyle situation kind of matter?

Let's assume that we do sign Boyle.

Now you are looking at a scoring winger since that's what the draft is most likely to target. We all know that Garth has hinted in the past that he will listen to offers if the player is 'a young, established NHL'er that can play now'.

One name we don't seem to mention that fits the bill is Van Riemsdyk. It seems on HF that he is offered 1,278 times in threads in the last 30 days. He's still just 25 years old, a natural left winger for JT, good size and coming off a 30 goal season with a cheap contract.

Would we accept a trade of the 5th for him? I would think so but I suspect Toronto wants more.

Could we pry him away and how might a trade look like?

To Toronto:

5th overall
Mayfield
Grabner or Bailey (Toronto's option)

To Isles:

JVR
2015 second

Then you just take one of the goalies (or even 2) with the second rounder's this year and take the best possible wingers the rest of the way.

Is it really that far-fetched?

Being that JVR is young, cheap and an established scorer, why would they want to trade him? They need a top line Center, but I'm not sure if they want to give up their second best scorer for the #5 pick that probably won't yield them a Center from the top crop from this year. Bennett/Reinhart and possibly Draisatl will be gone so I don't see how the #5 pick fits with their needs.

On the flip side, the Isles don't NEED a top end Center (they could use one in the sense that everyone could, but its not their top need) but instead could use a scoring winger. There should be a few of those available, whether its a physical guy (MDC) or speedsters (Ehlers/Nylander)

 

[steveat]

If the Isles trade the pick, it should be to move up. Maybe a package deal that would give both sides what they need.

Like NYI to Buffalo -> Bailey, Martin, One of Pekka/Pokka + 5th 2014 + 2nd 2014
Buf to NYI -> Stewart + Erhoff (retain 50% of salary for 2014/15 season) + 2nd overall

Now, I honestly don't see us trading for 2nd spot because IF we did trade to move up, it would most certainly be for Sam Reinhart and if Florida chooses Sam, which is a very good possibility, we would be screwed. You can never have enough offence from the blueline and if we get Erhoff, it would most likely be a salary dump and since his contract was a front loaded one, we pay even less as the years go on. It is such a Wang move. Imagine we have Boyle, Viz AND Erhoff! As for Stewart....he's played on a winning team (ok, not the best playoff team), but he knows how to win and can offer that experience to our young guys. A winning presence with Halak (played with Stewart), Boyle, Viz and Stewart...wow Great vet blueline while adding a vet secondary winger to the mix. It would also force our rookies to get even better. I think we would see the most improvement from the more intelligent higher hockey IQ players, like Reinhart.

I have no idea what Florida would want and there isn't really anyone that I'd want from their organization.



Another trade could be (no pick)

NYI to Jets - Bailey, Strome, Matt Martin + one of Pokka/Pelech
Jets to NYI - E. Kane + B. Wheeler

This gives us a lot more scoring and upgrades our wing, however, since we are on this "discipline" track, maybe that wouldn't be such a good idea.

We saw how speed disrupts games...I just think with Kane and Wheeler, we increase that by many times.

 

[YashinWorksHard]

We discussed a lot about the 5th pick but, what would you like for the (first) second round pick? There will be some impressive forwards as Vrana, Ho Sang, Pasrtsnak, Kempe, Kamenev, Goldobin, Schmaltz, Tkachev.. obviously not all but there will be some talent available. A player like Vrana, Pasrtnak, Kamenev or Ho-Sang would be a really, really nice pick.

 

[steveat]

We discussed a lot about the 5th pick but, what would you like for the (first) second round pick? There will be some impressive forwards as Vrana, Ho Sang, Pasrtsnak, Kempe, Kamenev, Goldobin, Schmaltz, Tkachev.. obviously not all but there will be some talent available. A player like Vrana, Pasrtnak, Kamenev or Ho-Sang would be a really, really nice pick.

We'd most likely choose someone that dropped out of the first round. Hopefully someone around the 15-20 spot.

 

[doublechili]

A thought that I had:

If the Isles offered the identical trade package to the Pens for Neal and to the Bruins for Lucic and both accepted, which trade would you want them to make?

Because, even though they're not nearly perfect analogies, that's kind of the MDC vs. Ritchie decision.

 

[Felix Unger]

We saw how speed disrupts games...I just think with Kane and Wheeler, we increase that by many times.

That trade might work if WPG doesn't want to score any goals next year.

With the increasing cap, producing players under contract have MORE value than they've ever had. I have a really hard time imagining a realistic trade I would like.

Realistic deals are 5th overall for Edler +, or 5th overall for Marchand +. (+'s are little). I'm pretty meh about both, but I think Edler has a bum rap.

 

[Felix Unger]

A thought that I had:

If the Isles offered the identical trade package to the Pens for Neal and to the Bruins for Lucic and both accepted, which trade would you want them to make?

Because, even though they're not nearly perfect analogies, that's kind of the MDC vs. Ritchie decision.

Boston's identity is built around Lucic. There's no chance they move him.

Pittsburgh won't move Neal in the east - certainly not to a division rival.

 

[steveat]

That trade might work if WPG doesn't want to score any goals next year.

With the increasing cap, producing players under contract have MORE value than they've ever had. I have a really hard time imagining a realistic trade I would like.

Realistic deals are 5th overall for Edler +, or 5th overall for Marchand +. (+'s are little). I'm pretty meh about both, but I think Edler has a bum rap.

I thought about how that trade would be equal for both teams. I think Kane just needs a change of scenery. Wheeler on the other hand got 68 points whereas Kane got like 41 in 68 games. Probably projected to a 55 point season.


Say we calculate 150 points for both Kane and Wheeler

Bailey is good for at least 40 points I think. (not a high contract)
Strome would be good for AT LEAST another 40 points AND is on cheap ELC
Martin - 15 points
Then a B+ prospect who could add another 20-25 points.

Winterpeg might have a slight point loss, but they get more NHL regulars to increase team depth.

To make a long story short..they aren't that far off at point totals all together.

 

[Felix Unger]

I thought about how that trade would be equal for both teams. I think Kane just needs a change of scenery. Wheeler on the other hand got 68 points whereas Kane got like 41 in 68 games. Probably projected to a 55 point season.


Say we calculate 150 points for both Kane and Wheeler

Bailey is good for at least 40 points I think. (not a high contract)
Strome would be good for AT LEAST another 40 points AND is on cheap ELC
Martin - 15 points
Then a B+ prospect who could add another 20-25 points.

Winterpeg might have a slight point loss, but they get more NHL regulars to increase team depth.

To make a long story short..they aren't that far off at point totals all together.

Strome is the only asset of any value you give them. Adding up points in quantity for quality trades is a pretty silly test.

I'd love to add one of Kane or Wheeler. Adding both would be crazy impossible.

 

[seabass45]

We discussed a lot about the 5th pick but, what would you like for the (first) second round pick? There will be some impressive forwards as Vrana, Ho Sang, Pasrtsnak, Kempe, Kamenev, Goldobin, Schmaltz, Tkachev.. obviously not all but there will be some talent available. A player like Vrana, Pasrtnak, Kamenev or Ho-Sang would be a really, really nice pick.

I'd like to trade both seconds to get back into the first and draft Demko. Ho Sang sounds great too but I'm not sure where he's expected to be drafted.

 

[seabass45]

BTW, not sure if this was mentioned but the Isles website is now counting down the top 50 draft prospects (as per Hockey News) with commentary from Trent Klatt and Mike Dunham. http://islanders.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=721923&navid=DL|NYI|home

 

[scott99]

I'd like to trade both seconds to get back into the first and draft Demko. Ho Sang sounds great too but I'm not sure where he's expected to be drafted.

Demko would be nice, but McDonald and Nedeljkovic should be there at #35.

 

[xECK29x]

BTW, not sure if this was mentioned but the Isles website is now counting down the top 50 draft prospects (as per Hockey News) with commentary from Trent Klatt and Mike Dunham. http://islanders.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=721923&navid=DL|NYI|home

Finally, been waiting for this to start

 

[PWJunior]

Demko would be nice, but McDonald and Nedeljkovic should be there at #35.

I've been on the Demko train most of the year, mostly because I've actually seen the kid play several times. I would be happy with Nedeljkovic or McDonald if Demko isn't available at #35. Don't foresee it as a really big deal as I think they're all quality prospects. We won't find out until years later if it was a good pick anyway.

 

[SI90]

I've been on the Demko train most of the year, mostly because I've actually seen the kid play several times. I would be happy with Nedeljkovic or McDonald if Demko isn't available at #35. Don't foresee it as a really big deal as I think they're all quality prospects. We won't find out until years later if it was a good pick anyway.

This is pretty much exactly how I feel.

If Demko makes it to the 2nd round I can't see all 4 teams ahead of us passing esspecially BUF and EDM.

McDonald has really grown on me and scouts seem to think the world of him.
I always liked Nedeljovic and think his style fits really well for the pros. So I'm really hopeing we draft one of those 3 and hopfully after a solid 3-4 years of Halak one of those guys would be ready to start playing pro(NHL) games.

 

[doublechili]

Boston's identity is built around Lucic. There's no chance they move him.

Pittsburgh won't move Neal in the east - certainly not to a division rival.

I wasn't suggesting that we trade for Lucic or Neal but rather was just using the potential to acquire either of them as an analogy to the decision between drafting MDC or Ritchie. IOW, if you could trade for Lucic OR Neal, which would you want? And therefore if you can draft MDC or Ritchie, which would you want?

 

[Levi Walking Bear]

There will be a goalie with the 35th pick, would not be inclined to trade up for a goalie. The only reason to pass on a goalie there unless there is a better position player available but can't expect any of the goalies slip to Montreal's second round pick.

 

[xECK29x]

If Demko makes it to the 2nd round I can't see all 4 teams ahead of us passing esspecially BUF and EDM.

Buffalo already has too much goaltending depth at the prospect level (Makarov/Hackett/Ullmark), its going to become an issue soon.

 

[seabass45]

I've been on the Demko train most of the year, mostly because I've actually seen the kid play several times. I would be happy with Nedeljkovic or McDonald if Demko isn't available at #35. Don't foresee it as a really big deal as I think they're all quality prospects. We won't find out until years later if it was a good pick anyway.

Are they all in the same tier? I just figure it's better to get the consensus top guy and give him four years before replacing Halak.