Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster Building Part XX

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Yeah I guess the last 6/9 cup winners being top 5 in CF% just isn't enough predictive for you. They have to be right 100% of the time or they're super flawed right?

Not to mention the fact that Pittsburgh's possession drastically improved after Michel Therrien got fired, and Boston was just a weird case.

And no, LA's paltry 2-8 record in the shootout deciding their record for the most part does nothing at all to discredit stats.

I also love hearing the "Rangers are great and their stats aren't" argument to discredit the stats. Colorado won the hardest division in hockey last year, and they suck. Their stats were horrible, and lo and behold it bit them hard in the ass this year; like almost everyone knew they would.



Wow I've never seen this strawman before so original!!!!!!

Again, correct. If the Kings had fallen to, say, 12th or 13th, and were the Rangers 7th or 8th overall, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you. And I wouldn't be that fussed about the variance.

But the fact that the #1 overall team after 82 games in this stat failed to even make the 16-team playoff field, while the team that finished tops in the league over the same period - setting franchise records in the process - barely squeaked out of the bottom 3rd of the rankings in that same stat is pretty damning evidence, IMO.

You know what I think CF% is predictive of? I think it is predictive of playing like the LA Kings. That style happened to work well for a period of time and so it led to a false correlation (or, if you prefer, you could say it led to a correlation that was correct for a period of time). Teams have adjusted, come up with new strategies and that style is no longer as effective and the fallacy of the correlation has been exposed (or, if you prefer, it is no longer correct).

Hence, my earlier stated position that I don't dislike advanced stats, I just don't think these are particularly advanced. Like in baseball, I expect them to evolve over the next 5-10 years and you'll start to see correlations that survive changes in style (or at least survive them better - to your point, I don't ever expect to see exact 1-to-1 correlation).

What confuses me is why you and others are so steadfast in defending this particular early iteration of advanced stats as the be-all, end-all...

 

[Raspewtin]

**** it

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

It really isn't but I won't stop you from believing fairy tales.

Yes, it is. The correlation should hold both ways if it's as predictive as you say. Otherwise, you're simply cherry-picking your examples.

What does this mean? That the Kings got "figured out" and that's why they're missing the playoffs? I'm sure losing their entire 2nd pair, Kopitar having his worst season as a pro, and going 2-8 in a meaningless skills competition have nothing to do with the Kings barely missing the playoffs. How do you have two years of evidence with the Kings and what they do, but still come to this conclusion?

Again, if it was that simple, then it would be reflected in the stats. Kopitar's worst season, the loss of the defensemen, etc. should lead to a reduction in these metrics. Instead, they stayed the same... and missed the playoffs. Seems pretty clear to me.

Smells like another "they can be better so they're not helpful" argument.

I never said that. But I think they're woefully incomplete and you and others use them as the sole (and in your minds, seemingly inarguable) rationale for many points - the need to find a way to rid the roster of Girardi in the offseason, just being one of them.

Nobody ****ing defends them as the be-all end-all.

If and when I see you post about other stats as a justification for a roster move, especially at the expense of what the current advanced stats say, I'll be happy to revise my opinion, but as of right now, it really does seem like you kinda do.

There's just literally a mountain of misconceptions on this board about the stats and what they do, and half this board have crucifixion complexes towards their pundits that would make Pontious Pilate jealous. I defend them because most stats "detractors" know total **** all about them, and opt instead to use the "you're not using context!!!!" or "watch da games!!!" red herrings.

I hope you know that I clearly do understand them and I am just engaging in a rational debate as to why I think they are flawed metrics - especially for this team in particular, structured and coached the way it is, to be using to make roster building decisions.

 

[broadwayblue]

There's a dedicated thread for discussion of this advanced stats nonsense. Pretty sure we don't need to read about it here.

 

[Beacon]

There's a dedicated thread for discussion of this advanced stats nonsense. Pretty sure we don't need to read about it here.

Corsi, Glass and McIlrath belong in every single thread.

 

[Kwayry]

MSL for a vet minimum next season is fine, anything more and it's a bad deal.
I am coming around to the idea that Hagelin is gone next season. That chap is easy to cheer for, will be tough to see him go.

 

[Raspewtin]

MSL for a vet minimum next season is fine, anything more and it's a bad deal.
I am coming around to the idea that Hagelin is gone next season. That chap is easy to cheer for, will be tough to see him go.

The vet minimum is 550 K isn't it.....?

Cause in that case, sign me the **** up.

 

[Kwayry]

The vet minimum is 550 K isn't it.....?

Cause in that case, sign me the **** up.

Unless he has a phenomenal playoffs, I don't see where he fits.

Nash - Brass - Zuke.
Kreider - Step -Miller.
Fast - Lindberg - Hayes.
Shep(re-signed?) - Moore - Glass

 

[Beacon]

Unless he has a phenomenal playoffs, I don't see where he fits.

Nash - Brass - Zuke.
Kreider - Step -Miller.
Fast - Lindberg - Hayes.
Shep(re-signed?) - Moore - Glass

Nash - Brass - Zuke
Kreider - Step -Miller
Fast - Hayes - MSL
Moore - Lindberg - Glass

 

[Miz]

Nash - Brass - Zuke
Kreider - Step -Miller
Fast - Hayes - MSL
Moore - Lindberg - Glass

Take our best face off guy and play him on the wing, makes sense

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Have u guys given up on mcilrath yet? He seems to get thrown around in trade talks on these boards but I still think he could be a very important piece. Something that most teams don't have

 

[broadwayblue]

Have u guys given up on mcilrath yet? He seems to get thrown around in trade talks on these boards but I still think he could be a very important piece. Something that most teams don't have

No, haven't given up on him yet. But next year is a pretty big year for him no doubt. Hopefully he's ready to take the next step.

 

[BBKers]

Nash - Brass - Zuke.
Kreider - Step -Miller.
Buch (Hagelin maybe stays if we possibly could trade Boyle) - Hayes - MSL (ONLY 4 CHEAP)
Lindberg - Moore - Fast
Klingberg

McD - Girardi
Staal - Klein
Yandle - Boyle (McIllraith if Boyle can be dealt)
McIllraith/plug

Hank
New backup


Deal Glass, Talbot and most likely Hagelin in offseason
Could fit moneywise
Not sure how close it can get

 

[LetterJ]

Jagr re-signs in Florida for 3.5M base. One year. MSL comparable??

 

[Kwayry]

Nash - Brass - Zuke
Kreider - Step -Miller
Fast - Hayes - MSL
Moore - Lindberg - Glass

How long would you sign MSL for? Maybe 1 more year but then he is really done.
I don't mean to sound ruthless, MSL was a great player, but he is on his last legs.

 

[Beacon]

Take our best face off guy and play him on the wing, makes sense

Lindberg can probably do just as well on the faceoffs or else Moore can take faceoffs as a wing.

 

[Kwayry]

By the way, Shep is my dark horse for having great playoffs. I would re-sign him if possible.

 

[surlysailor]

I posted this on the trade board a little while back...just wondering what you guys think.

To Boston:
Dylan McIlrath

For

To New York:
Reilly Smith

Good luck guys. **** the Pens.

Most likely wouldn't work cap wise for us. Maybe Klein for Smith could work. Closer in contracts I believe. Not sure if either side would need to add.

 

[surlysailor]

By the way, Shep is my dark horse for having great playoffs. I would re-sign him if possible.

Too bad Shep will have to get in games over Glass. I agree Shep seems like a great playoff performer but knowing AV, Glass will most likely draw in over Shep.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

The vet minimum is 550 K isn't it.....?

Cause in that case, sign me the **** up.

I think it may have risen $25K this year, but something like that, yeah.

And agreed, the ONLY way I want him back is on a minimum deal or something comparable. No bonus shenanigans to kick the can down the road - if we pay him anything more than a million and change it'll screw us cap-wise either this year or next, and he's just not worth it anymore.

Have u guys given up on mcilrath yet? He seems to get thrown around in trade talks on these boards but I still think he could be a very important piece. Something that most teams don't have

For me, it has nothing to do with whether I've given up on him or not. I see three facts (the style McIlrath plays, the style the coach prefers and McIlrath's vulnerability to a waiver claim next season) and I think it's at least somewhat likely he gets traded at the draft.

By the way, Shep is my dark horse for having great playoffs. I would re-sign him if possible.

I have to say, I've REALLY liked his game since we acquired him. If we could ship out Glass (who I have to admit has actually played well in his role for about the last ten games) and re-sign Sheppard to a similar or cheaper deal, I'd be all for it.

 

[Raspewtin]

I'd like to re-sign Sheppard if we can dump Glass.

Though that wouldn't leave a spot for Lindberg, who I think can/should make the team next year.

 

[broadwayblue]

For me, it has nothing to do with whether I've given up on him or not. I see three facts (the style McIlrath plays, the style the coach prefers and McIlrath's vulnerability to a waiver claim next season) and I think it's at least somewhat likely he gets traded at the draft.

All true. But AV's infatuation with TG does at least leave open the possibility DM could find some playing time here.

 

[BleedinBLUEsince92]

How long would you sign MSL for? Maybe 1 more year but then he is really done.
I don't mean to sound ruthless, MSL was a great player, but he is on his last legs.

Don't think it's fair to say that at all. He has 52 points in 74 games. Let's wait and see his performance in the playoffs before we claim he's on his last leg. That's ridiculous.

 

[Cassano]

By the way, Shep is my dark horse for having great playoffs. I would re-sign him if possible.

He won't play over Glass.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I'd like to re-sign Sheppard if we can dump Glass.

Though that wouldn't leave a spot for Lindberg, who I think can/should make the team next year.

He will be more tradeable after his bonus is paid out in June. Afterwards, his cap hit is higher than his salary which is great for a team close to the cap floor.