I think you’re right. I think the over/under is probably around 8 before the lottery.
In Feb, my thought was that they end up in the 7/8 spot. Still holds with Det, Ott, Buf, NJ, and now Ana in the bottom 5. NJ, even with games in hand, nothing screams that they will go on a run. Dallas, also a bunch of games in hand but they have struggled, which isn't too shocking with Seguin/Bishop out and a short off-season, plus Covid hitting to begin the year.
The teams with games in hand who are behind the Canucks in points, are still playing at the Season to Date Points Percentage of under 0.500.