Speculation: Райан О'Рейли: In Soviet Ontario Offer Sheets Sign You; Rayan's 3rd Thread

[JoemAvs]

if we continue to suck i want the #1 pick. though something tells me we will once again somehow not win the lotto and get stuck with #2 or #3.
nothing wrong with #2 in this draft but i badly want Jones.
him becoming an av would solve a lot of issues.
Sacco would likely be canned, the D would instantly be improved and EJ would have a top pairing D partner.

Jones shoots right handed.
It is really baffling that a majority of defenseman are said to be left-handed but we have problems filling that LD spot.
Elliott, Barrie, EJ all righthanded. Larsson (whom I wanted tbh) was right handed and many more. Bogosian is RD, Myers is RD.
Confusing. It is really hard to get a top tier LD.

I wonder how long it will take for ROR to get a reality check. I don't think that the relationship between the Avs and him can be repaired and he will be traded but in the end he has to realize that he is doing major damage to himself right now.
What is his endgame? Praying for the Avs to cave? In what already probably is a throw away season for them?

 

[Bubba Thudd]

I believe we'll get the best deal for ROR over the summer.
That hurts us this year, as we aren't playing him nor whomever we get in return for him.
Unless you're rolling with the tank, in which case having him unsigned is good...

 

[S E P H]

I believe we'll get the best deal for ROR over the summer.
That hurts us this year, as we aren't playing him nor whomever we get in return for him.
Unless you're rolling with the tank, in which case having him unsigned is good...

I still think ROR will sign a deal with us, but I agree that playoffs are not important this year.

 

[Alex Jones]

I could see him dealt around the draft.

 

[Foppa2118]

Jones shoots right handed.
It is really baffling that a majority of defenseman are said to be left-handed but we have problems filling that LD spot.
Elliott, Barrie, EJ all righthanded. Larsson (whom I wanted tbh) was right handed and many more. Bogosian is RD, Myers is RD.
Confusing. It is really hard to get a top tier LD.

I wonder how long it will take for ROR to get a reality check. I don't think that the relationship between the Avs and him can be repaired and he will be traded but in the end he has to realize that he is doing major damage to himself right now.
What is his endgame? Praying for the Avs to cave? In what already probably is a throw away season for them?

I don't have any data to back this up, but they used to be more lefties, while over the last five or so years all the top prospects coming up seem to be righties.

Before, finding an offensive guy like Rob Blake who played on the right was a coup, especially for the added element on the PP. Now it seems hard to find a young or middle aged offensive guy that plays on the left. Team's aren't giving them up.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

I still think ROR will sign a deal with us, but I agree that playoffs are not important this year.

I think he will, too.
But I also think the FO will ship him off for holding out, and for trying to strongarm them into giving him the contract he wants by using the KHL.

 

[Freudian]

I don't have any data to back this up, but they used to be more lefties, while over the last five or so years all the top prospects coming up seem to be righties.

Before, finding an offensive guy like Rob Blake who played on the right was a coup, especially for the added element on the PP. Now it seems hard to find a young or middle aged offensive guy that plays on the left. Team's aren't giving them up.

70% of defenders shoot left.

 

[Foppa2118]

70% of defenders shoot left.

Do you have any numbers for the amount of offensive defenseman that have broke into the legue, or been drafted in the last five or so years? That's the number I expect to be a little further from 70%. Unless you were being facetious with that number, I can't tell.

 

[Freudian]

Do you have any numbers for the amount of offensive defenseman that have broke into the legue, or been drafted in the last five or so years? That's the number I expect to be a little further from 70%. Unless you were being facetious with that number, I can't tell.

I have no reason to expect numbers for offensive or younger defensemen to deviate from the norm.

Just because Avs have a few offensive righties and there are some prominent righties around the league, doesn't mean there has been a shift. It's randomness.

 

[AslanRH]

Still say FO should "offer" to sign RoR at around 4.250m/per for 4-5yrs, but wait until summer so he doesn't get a short service year in. If he wants this year to count, then he should sign the bridge contract offered asap.

Still not very upset with FO's handling of this from the information I've read that seems credible. Frustrated, but think the FO is doing right long term.

 

[Foppa2118]

I have no reason to expect numbers for offensive or younger defensemen to deviate from the norm.

Just because Avs have a few offensive righties and there are some prominent righties around the league, doesn't mean there has been a shift. It's randomness.

It just seems like there's so many more top offensive guys than there used to be.

Think about who the top names are for offensive D in this league, who are the names you come up with? You'll definitely get some lefties in the list, but you also come up with names like Karlsson, Letang, Doughty, Byfuglien, Pietrangelo, Weber, Shattenkirk, Seabrook, Burns, EJ for us.

Look at our own offensive D picks recently. Elliott, Barrie, Cohen, Shattenkirk, all righties. Last year there were a bunch of lefties picked in the top of the draft, but in 2011 the top guys we're all righties. Larrson, Hamilton, Ryan Murphy. Same with guys from past drafts. Gudbranson, Myers, Bogo. Seth Jones is a righty.

There's definitely some good young lefties out there. OEL is one of them, same with Yandle, Enstrom, Keith, and Suter.

Again, I'm not making a statement either way because I don't know, but it seems like there's been a cultural shift. I don't know if there's more righties than lefties among top D, but there sure seems to be more than there used to. Ten or so years ago, those top names would be mostly lefties.

Edit: I just realized this is the ROR thread. Probably got a bit too OT here. Back to Radar and Sherman bashing.

 

[JoemAvs]

I have no reason to expect numbers for offensive or younger defensemen to deviate from the norm.

Just because Avs have a few offensive righties and there are some prominent righties around the league, doesn't mean there has been a shift. It's randomness.

Well I am not so sure. Avs best Ds are all righthanded.
EJ(rh), Myers (ok not right now) (rh), Bogosian (rh), Pietrangelo (rh), Doughty (rh), Karlsson (rh), Jones (rh), Hamilton (rh), Gudbranson (rh), Schenn (rh), McIlrath (rh)

At first glance it looks like since the 2006 draft the only lefthanded (top 10 dman pick or star in this league) impact dmen who shoot left handed are Fowler, OEL , Alzner, (Hickey), Cowen, Ellerby, Brodin and Hedman.

Fowler and the two swedes not developped in the NHL are the only two who would make the Top10 list of those guys
The 2012 draft is the complete opposite of that. A crapload of LH top 8-10 dmen.
Still an interesting trend that makes me question the 70 / 30 thing and that it is harder to get a good RD than a good LD.

Point is we need a LD in return for ROR if we trade him for a d. No more RD.

 

[agentblack]

Wow that is odd, so many off d men rightys
strange.
Subban and Faulk too, and Letang
Id rather they trade ROR at the draft
Unless they are definitely getting a Yandle or OEL for sure
then screw the pick
But if its say Gormley and a pick, not knowing where it will be, then wait

 

[Freudian]

It's randomness. Just because there are a few highly touted righties around the league and Avs have a few doesn't mean that suddenly right shots magically are more offensively gifted than what they historically have been.

There has been 89 right shot defenders and 181 left shot defenders playing in the NHL this year.

Last draft the top four defensemen picked were left shots. Also, randomness.

Trying to attribute meaning to what is simply the result of randomness is a pointless exercise.

Avs fans think much more about who is a right shot because we have EJ, Elliott, Barrie and had Shattenkirk. Thus when we think of what guy we would want or we could fit we react when we see a right shot. There are lots of fan bases that curse the lack of right shots because they haven't had one in ages.

 

[Foppa2118]

It's randomness. Just because there are a few highly touted righties around the league and Avs have a few doesn't mean that suddenly right shots magically are more offensively gifted than what they historically have been.

There has been 89 right shot defenders and 181 left shot defenders playing in the NHL this year.

Last draft the top four defensemen picked were left shots. Also, randomness.

Trying to attribute meaning to what is simply the result of randomness is a pointless exercise.

Avs fans think much more about who is a right shot because we have EJ, Elliott, Barrie and had Shattenkirk. Thus when we think of what guy we would want or we could fit we react when we see a right shot. There are lots of fan bases that curse the lack of right shots because they haven't had one in ages.

Again, I think you're using numbers for ALL the defenseman. I'm talking about top offensive RH defenseman. There's clearly more than 30%. I would hazard a guess that it's closer to 50-50, and maybe even the righties have a slight edge among the top guys, especially youngsters.

I think most of the lower tier guys seem to be lefties, and it skews the overall numbers a bit.

 

[Freudian]

Again, I think you're using numbers for ALL the defenseman. I'm talking about top offensive RH defenseman. There's clearly more than 30%.

I don't think you understand what randomness is.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't think you understand what randomness is.

Right that's it. I don't think you know what 30% is. That's the problem.

 

[JoemAvs]

It's randomness. Just because there are a few highly touted righties around the league and Avs have a few doesn't mean that suddenly right shots magically are more offensively gifted than what they historically have been.

There has been 89 right shot defenders and 181 left shot defenders playing in the NHL this year.

Last draft the top four defensemen picked were left shots. Also, randomness.

Trying to attribute meaning to what is simply the result of randomness is a pointless exercise.

Avs fans think much more about who is a right shot because we have EJ, Elliott, Barrie and had Shattenkirk. Thus when we think of what guy we would want or we could fit we react when we see a right shot. There are lots of fan bases that curse the lack of right shots because they haven't had one in ages.

Well I think it is kind of astonishing that all the young top Ds are Righties or basically from Sweden. I agree that 2012 reverses this trend but it is still more than a statistical anomaly to me. Maybe a right handed shot is developped differently in the CHL or he gets more opportunities or sth?

 

[Freudian]

Right that's it. I don't think you know what 30% is. That's the problem.

I've explained it as clear as I can. If you don't understand the concept of randomness, it's pointless discussing this further.

If you want to believe right shots suddenly for some unexplained reason becoming more offensively talented than they have been in the past, feel free.

 

[Foppa2118]

I've explained it as clear as I can. If you don't understand the concept of randomness, it's pointless discussing this further.

If you want to believe right shots suddenly for some unexplained reason becoming more offensively talented than they have been in the past, feel free.

I don't even know why you're talking about randomness, or the cause and effect of anything. All I was saying was there seem to be more top offensive righties than there used to, and I even wrote out a list of most of them, while acknowledging the lefties as well. You for some reason decided to take umbrage with that. I have no idea why.

Since you're so dead set against what I'm saying here are the actual numbers for what I'm saying. These are the percentage of righties vs lefties in the top 20 of defesenman scoring, and were also under 30 years old for the last few years.

2012 - 7 L and 7 R - 50%
2011 - 5 L and 8 R - 62%
2010 - 4 L and 4 R - 50%
2009 - 5 L and 4 R - 44%

Can you get off your 30% high horse now?

 

[Freudian]

I don't even know why you're talking about randomness, or the cause and effect of anything. All I was saying was there seem to be more top offensive righties than there used to, and I even wrote out a list of most of them, while acknowledging the lefties as well. You for some reason decided to take umbrage with that. I have no idea why.

Since you're so dead set against what I'm saying here are the actual numbers for what I'm saying. These are the percentage of righties vs lefties in the top 20 of defesenman scoring, and were also under 30 years old for the last few years.

2012 - 7 L and 7 R - 50%
2011 - 5 L and 8 R - 62%
2010 - 4 L and 4 R - 50%
2009 - 5 L and 4 R - 44%

Can you get off your 30% high horse now?

And the reason for more than 30% of the under-30 top 20 in point scoring being right shots in the last four years is?

 

[5280]

 

[JoemAvs]

And the reason for more than 30% of the under-30 top 20 in point scoring being right shots in the last four years is?

Maybe that you can get PP opportunities more often as a RD in the CHL (and even way before in AAA or sth) because there are more left handed mediocre overagers blocking you than there are right handed shots?. Therefore you get more offensive opportunities in general and gain more experience in the crucial time of your developement?

 

[Foppa2118]

And the reason for more than 30% of the under-30 top 20 in point scoring being right shots in the last four years is?

You're the only one talking about reasons. I have no way of speculating on that, though I have heard arguments in the past for the growth of American development in the last decade playing a factor, and that there tend to be more righties in that regard.

I don't have any data to back that up, so I won't make any claims, or try and distil it down to randomenss. That's not the point. The point was you claimed there was 70% of lefties. I mentioned I felt it seemed like there were more top youngsters that were righties than there used to, and wrote out a lengthy list of examples on NHLers and recent top prospects.

You meanwhile continued to take a strong issue with my feeling while supporting no data for your 70% number, expecting me to do the same. Turns out there are not an overwhelming majority of lefties among top offensive D, it's closer to half and half like I mentioned. If you want to discuss the reasons for that, feel free to have that purely speculative argument with someone else.

 

[Freudian]

Maybe that you can get PP opportunities more often as a RD in the CHL (and even way before in AAA or sth) because there are more left handed mediocre overagers blocking you than there are right handed shots?. Therefore you get more offensive opportunities in general and gain more experience in the crucial time of your developement?

Here is a much more likely explanation. Out of 20-25 year old offensively gifted defensemen, out of randomness 4-5 more of them compared to normally turned out to be right shots.

In the future, 4-5 more of talented kids may turn out to be left shots and people talk about why there are so many left shots. Or they might be from Switzerland and people talk about why there are so many from Switzerland like they talk about young defenders from Sweden at the moment.

There are a few brilliant young righties at the moment (Pietrangelo, Doughty, Karlsson) that distorts the view and people think it's a trend but it's just chance that they happen to be right shots.