Value of: What would it cost for a team to get 1st OA this draft?

[Wingsfan 4 life]

You know you're in a HF value of 1OA thread when names like Mcdavid, Matthews and Karlsson keep popping up.

 

[Paulinvancouver]

Crazy high, which is why I would be selling 1OA this year if my team had it.

 

[McSuper]

Dahlin has so far 7 points in 15 games playing with men as a 17-year-old. That's more than the combined season total of Hedman, Karlsson and Lidström, and it's barely November.

There a lot more to consider then that . Teams , players on the ice , would he have done as well on the same teams the other 3 players mention was on . Hockey is a game of inches and if he was on another team he could have zero points . How is his team using him , how were those other players used . God forbid we judging a kid D base on points of 3 great D that have proven themselves at the NHL level

 

[lf4l]

Kid is going to be good, he can do it all! Needs to bulk up a bit though.
The main concerns are his style on smaller ice surfaces and how he will do against bigger players.

With the hype surrounding him, the potential would drive the cost up too high to consider trading for the 1OA to grab him.

 

[Albatros]

There a lot more to consider then that . Teams , players on the ice , would he have done as well on the same teams the other 3 players mention was on . Hockey is a game of inches and if he was on another team he could have zero points . How is his team using him , how were those other players used . God forbid we judging a kid D base on points of 3 great D that have proven themselves at the NHL level

I agree that the conditions are never identical. However Karlsson played for the same organization that had the same level of success back then as it has now (midtable), so they are as similar as one can reasonably expect. In any case Dahlin is not just carried by his teammates, as his Corsi is the 2nd best in the entire league.

 

[rent free]

teams shouldn't given up proven commodities for the #1 pick

 

[Boud]

Like would toronto ship marner+ liljegren for 1st OA 2018?

Would oilers give up drailsaitl + pulju
for 1st OA 2018?

Would jets do laine + picks for for 1st OA 2018?

WAIT

Do you think...

That Marner

Laine

And

Draisaitl have similar value?

Bro..

 

[Stuzchuk]

is this really the level of hype for this kid?.. being a 2 time norris winner is a pessimistic projection? anyone thats watched him play wanna chime in?

yes he is good and I would not be surprised that one day he's just as good as Karlsson but dont forget that he's a prospect and that this is HFB ... where 1st round picks and prospects are worth more than 40 goals scoring forwards because the player in question is over 29

 

[VoluntaryDom]

this kid will be better than Hedman, better than Karlsson.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Only way your getting the pick is if you already have a top 5 pick and you want to trade up. I'd trade 5th OA+Hutton/Juolevi for the 1st Overall for example

 

[GeeoffBrown]

If I could get an Eric Lindros haul, I'd do it.

 

[Space Coyote]

Leafs would give up Matthews + Rielly +1st for OEL + Keller + Dhalin

 

[MarkusKetterer]

perfect response.

Jamie Benn was a star player at 24....Matthews is already a top 5 forward at 20. to even copnsider them equal is laughable at best.

I could be wrong, but I don't think they were implying a Benn for Matthews trade now. They were asking would you do a Benn for the pick that became Matthews, prior to June 2016. Or maybe I'm just an idiot and read it wrong

 

[Alberta Yote]

Only way your getting the pick is if you already have a top 5 pick and you want to trade up. I'd trade 5th OA+Hutton/Juolevi for the 1st Overall for example

I bet you would

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Leafs would give up Matthews + Rielly +1st for OEL + Keller + Dhalin

Nope. Mathews is the leafs. He is so good at both ends of the ice. He' winning games for the team. Keller isn't Reilly is only 23 and really starting to show his skills on offence and signed to a great contract. You hope dahlin turns into a karlsson. And if he doesn't you just made a terrible trade

 

[biotk]

Dahlin has so far 7 points in 15 games playing with men as a 17-year-old. That's more than the combined season total of Hedman, Karlsson and Lidström, and it's barely November.

His development would have to stall seriously to be on par with Karlsson, that's how good he is already. So if a Karlsson is a pessimistic projection, then I'll take him over Matthews anytime.

If my aunt had nuts she would be my uncle. Hedman was born in December and there's no way to change that.

I would think that someone who is interested in assessing how good Dahlin is would be interested in actual comparisons to others instead of word games to make the player you prefer sound better. Hedman and Dahlin are a decent comparison. Comparing one in their draft year to one in their D-1 year because Hedman was born 4 months earlier is simply being disingenuous.

D-1 year:
Dahlin SHL: 3 pts in 26 games.
Hedman SHL: 4 pts in 39 games.

Dahlin WJC-U20: 2 pts in 7 games
Hedman WJC-U20: 1 pts in 6 games

Dahlin Sweden-U18: 2 pts in 5 games
Hedman Sweden-U18: 6 pts in 8 games

D Year:
Dahlin SHL: 7 pts in 15 games
Hedman SHL: 21 pts in 43 games

I think that Dahlin is better than Hedman was at the same age, but the difference is not huge. I think that Dahlin is better than Karlsson and Lidstrom were at the same age, but those two ramped up their development massively in the years after they were drafted. Development is not linear. Believing that Dahlin's development would have to stall seriously to end up on par with Karlsson only shows that you don't understand development at all.

For instance:

D-2:
Cleary OHL: 81 pts in 62 games
McDavid OHL: 66 pts in 63 games
D-1:
Cleary OHL: 115 pts in 64 games (2nd in league in points - 4 points behind leader, and led team by 40 pts)
McDavid OHL: 99 pts in 56 games (distant 3rd on team in points - 29 points behind highest scoring Erie Otter with first name of Connor)

(Cleary was less than 1 month older than McDavid)

Development is not linear.

Karlsson was the 7th D drafted in 2008.

The last 10 D who were drafted 1st OA have a combined zero Norris Trophies (the last #1 drafted D to win the Norris was Denis Potvin in 1973). Since 1980 the Norris has only been won 3 times by a D who was the first D drafted in his draft year (Doughty, Niedermayer and Pronger each winning it once).

16 D were drafted before Subban in 2007. None have won a Norris.
4 D were drafted before Burns in 2003. None have won a Norris.
15 D were drafted before Keith in 2002. None have won a Norris.
22 D were drafted before Chara in 1996. None have won a Norris.
19 D were drafted before Lidstrom in 1989. None have won a Norris.
16 D were drafted before Blake in 1988. None have won a Norris.
2 D were drafted before Leetch in 1986. None have won a Norris.
15 D were drafted before Chelios in 1981. Only MacInnis won a Norris (and 6 D were drafted before him).
3 D were drafted before Coffey in 1980. None have won a Norris.
3 D were drafted before Bourque in 1979. None have won a Norris.
11 D were drafted before Langway in 1977. Only Wilson won a Norris (and 2 D were drafted before him).
7 D were drafted before Carlyle in 1976. None have won a Norris.
4 D were drafted before Robinson in 1971. None have won a Norris.

 

[Albatros]

In Swedish hockey NHL draft years mean nothing, junior age groups are according to birth year. Overage players do not get to set junior records no matter what month they were born in. A player born in December is in obvious disadvantage, but that's just a fact of life - someone always is (otherwise players would lose eligibility mid-season). If you want to do your own research you can do an unofficial calculation of Hedman's achievements until December 18 when he was still factually 17. Beyond that it's just nonsense.

 

[Tryamkin]

You know you're in a HF value of 1OA thread when names like Mcdavid, Matthews and Karlsson keep popping up.

You know you’re in a HF thread when posters who don’t know anything about prospects try to gauge value.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Honestly, Dmen bust a lot more often than forwards. At this point I wouldn't even trade Hischier for Dahlin.

Thats embarrassing

 

[biotk]

In Swedish hockey NHL draft years mean nothing, junior age groups are according to birth year. Overage players do not get to set junior records no matter what month they were born in. A player born in December is in obvious disadvantage, but that's just a fact of life - someone always is (otherwise players would lose eligibility mid-season). If you want to do your own research you can do an unofficial calculation of Hedman's achievements until December 18 when he was still factually 17. Beyond that it's just nonsense.

People who are actually interested in assessing players don't use arbitrary restrictions. Especially when that person is projecting a player into the future in the NHL. No one should take you seriously.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

These posts are insane. Top picks are so overvalued

 

[Brock Radunske]

Based on prospect hype, it would take Matthews, Nylander and a 1st...

 

[Albatros]

People who are actually interested in assessing players don't use arbitrary restrictions.

What is arbitrary about the plain fact that Dahlin is 17 and not 18? And will not be before the season is over. He's a J18 player playing with men and should be assessed as such. Comparing him to overage players is arbitrary, although does show how far ahead he is in his development.

 

[McShogun99]

I'd like to see the trade value of the Yakupov pick before he was drafted. None of these guys are a sure thing until they play in the NHL for an extended period of time. From highlights he looks like the next Karlsson but who knows how his career will turn out.

 

[Tripod]

I think if it falls on a team who already is stacked with D prospect, then moving down one spot can be logical to pick up the Russian kid.

Not sure. If Philly won I would be quite happy with:

Dahlin Myers
Provorov Sanheim
Morin Ghost