Post-Game Talk: We win

[PerformanceMcOil]

Hall had two better seasons of 5 on 5 production than this one when he was in Edmonton, including his last year. The player you see this season was always there.

Taylor Hall; .90 career ppg. In his tenure in the NHL is 17th among all players in ppg (minimum set 200gp) and this considering he has NEVER played with an elite PMD, has never played on an elite team, has had less help in every way and yet is this high up. Most of the players higher than Hall have also been in their career peaks during the Taylor Hall time frame.


NHL.com - Stats

Interestingly, adjust the metric to 500GP (more illustrative of Taylor Hall time frame in NHL) and he's 9th place.

NHL.com - Stats

Sure, and if you want to argue this was a reason to expect a turnaround, that's fine. But none of this changes the reality that he was a 60 point player three seasons in a row, and (to me at least) seemed like a player who had checked out at times. Regardless of what his value *could* have been or *should* have been, those were his results, and likely were a big part in deciding what his value *was*.

Its not mutually exclusive to think that the Oilers have bad management and that a lot of NHL clubs have bad management. I think hockey has still not come close to reaching stages of managerial competence exhibited in other leagues.

But if no one is willing to buy what you are selling, you don't have a lot of options, other than to stand pat. Would have been better in this case? Based on this year, probably. Based on last year? I'm not as sure. Going forward, it seems like it would have been, but that could change again.

As for JP, he's a project that much is clear. Hard not to like his toolbox, though.

Exactly. He's like Nurse (and Yakupov, yes) was - raw, but talented. Wouldn't be the first player like that to bust, and wouldn't be the first player like that to put it together. I don't understand the need to judge today, just because others from his draft class are doing well. What difference does that make to what the player will become?

 

[BigFuzzyDice]

And people still question if pro sports or this league in general is fixed. Get your eyes checked. Expansion team winning a divison with over 100 points, getting the benefit of the doubt on most calls including one in a game where Neal smashed his stick on a goalies faced, knocked him down and the goal counted. A player with a bad reputation for embellishment and scummy play. Do you think hes getting that call playing for Vancouver?

The NHL is a farce.

Vince McBettman and the wwnhl-e LOL

 

[rboomercat90]

Its not a surprise that Seguins father down played it but he talked about it in depth. There were very long articles (a series of them) about how some of the stuff had been manufactured by the org. There were times Seguin was in the hotel when the team was stating he was not. Or times when he was alleged to be out drinking when his dad knew his whereabouts. On some occasions Seguins father was with him.

But the worst is that people furthered in the saga that Seguins father AGREED with the Bruins concerns and that was WHY Seguins father spoke out at length to clarify that he did nothing of the sort. Its that latter part that is truly despicable, that writers and fans have stated as corroborating proof that Seguins parents SHARED the concerns. They did not, and never did. I hope this clarifies the matter somewhat.

heh Klima scored arguably one of the biggest goals possible in an OT playoff game. Yeah, he had his moments but again a talent that was worth putting up with his stuff. The key thing being what the player can do on the ice.

But the other thing I disputed is that people made suggestions that Sequins alleged activity had influenced his play on the ice. He was amongst the best Bruins players for two seasons. He was young and improving. You just have patience with a player like that.

I had my moments of frustration with Hall immaturity, sure I did. But never wanted him gone because of it.

Finally, if the issue is only about when you do it then why is so much being made of Draisaitl not being at his best these last 8 games? Isn't this the ideal and perfect time to not be your best?

ps If I was on that Detroit Dead Things team and playing the superstar 80's Oilers in a playoff round drinking would seem to be about the logical thing to do. Spock might even approve..

c'mon, smile with me bro.

You and I are good. The only thing you said last night that annoyed me were some of your comments on Puljijarvi. I don’t get why you sometimes feel the need to rag on some players to prop up others. There’s a reason Puljijarvi and Draisatl are held to different standards. The kid is only 19 and not even close to finding his own way. Draisatl is paid to be an elite player in the league. If things aren’t going well for either Draisatl is getting the heat and rightfully so. I will say though, I thought that line showed so much potential last night. There time isn’t now but I think they’ll be a force in the future.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Sure, and if you want to argue this was a reason to expect a turnaround, that's fine. But none of this changes the reality that he was a 60 point player three seasons in a row, and (to me at least) seemed like a player who had checked out at times. Regardless of what his value *could* have been or *should* have been, those were his results, and likely were a big part in deciding what his value *was*.



But if no one is willing to buy what you are selling, you don't have a lot of options, other than to stand pat. Would have been better in this case? Based on this year, probably. Based on last year? I'm not as sure. Going forward, it seems like it would have been, but that could change again.

I cited the career stats, scoring ppg to indicate that last season or before did not change to any significant degree what this player had usually been. There were people running these numbers before the trade and afairc Hall was around 12th at the time. It doesn't change appreciably that he was one of the most consistent top performing players in the league, all the more impressive in that he's a young cohort doing that on a bad team without a PMD.

So that we traded a player of immense value, known to have immense value. All this player needed was a team capable of making the playoffs.

Standing pat was the way to go. We only had a 34 game season of McD to go on. There was no need to pull this severe a trigger. Nothing objectively was gained from it either. We got two playoff rounds last season and none this year. NJ made the playoffs, with Hall making a key contribution.

Is it unfathomable that the Oilers don't fill some D gaps, and make the playoffs either one of the last or this seasons?

Was two rounds and now missing worth it in that we gave up a topten producer in hockey? For a D that isn't even in lists of the top 50 D?

 

[phrenssoa]

Sure, and if you want to argue this was a reason to expect a turnaround, that's fine. But none of this changes the reality that he was a 60 point player three seasons in a row, and (to me at least) seemed like a player who had checked out at times. Regardless of what his value *could* have been or *should* have been, those were his results, and likely were a big part in deciding what his value *was*

I don’t understand how anyone could say Hall “checked out.” He was the heart and soul of this team, played his heart out and dominated play more than anyone I’ve seen not named McDavid.

He was visibly upset upon being traded and spoke about it at length until last season.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You and I are good. The only thing you said last night that annoyed me were some of your comments on Puljijarvi. I don’t get why you sometimes feel the need to rag on some players to prop up others. There’s a reason Puljijarvi and Draisatl are held to different standards. The kid is only 19 and not even close to finding his own way. Draisatl is paid to be an elite player in the league. If things aren’t going well for either Draisatl is getting the heat and rightfully so. I will say though, I thought that line showed so much potential last night. There time isn’t now but I think they’ll be a force in the future.

Just frustration on my part about where the org is progressing. Moreso because I know Chia traded Hall because he thought he could easily be replaced with Lucic and Pulju. While I'm happy about Hall making the playoffs for the first time it also triggered me and hurt me that it should've been here. So if I've been antsy that's what it was hockey wise. So that I'm not full of hope of what Pulju-Drai could become when we already had a great 2nd line in Drai-Hall. Maybe its possible I don't ever quite get over that as an Oilers fan. Imagine if the 80's Oilers had Chia trading away Messier. It wrecks the whole damn thing. But yeah, last few days and Jersey making it have triggered this Oilers fan.

But I don't rag on some players to put up others. I disagree with that narrative. I disagree with a notion that casts more blame at the best players on the team while making endless excuses for others. The best players on a team are its best players and its usually quite clear. Its not unreasonable tht I support the best players. They've earned it. Note I consistently defend even Talbot on a bad season, because he's earned that trust.

cheers

 

[Little Fury]

Sure, and if you want to argue this was a reason to expect a turnaround, that's fine. But none of this changes the reality that he was a 60 point player three seasons in a row, and (to me at least) seemed like a player who had checked out at times. Regardless of what his value *could* have been or *should* have been, those were his results, and likely were a big part in deciding what his value *was*.

Based on some of the stuff I've seen around New Jerseys run this year and Hall's central role there, it wouldn't surprise me if the bolded here wasn't true to some extent. Hall's clearly a competitor and a guy who thrives when it matters most. If anything, though, this highlights management's abject failure to build anything close to a competitive team around him. How long can one guy be expected to carry the whole load before they break? I guess we'll see with mcDavid cause there's no help coming there.

 

[nabob]

Who cares? It means nothing, absolutely nothing. These are meaningless games, what happens now has no bearing on what is going to happen next season and beyond.
Lots of established players energy level drops when their team is out of it. You and others are vastly overreacting and it's coming from the same folks who were defending Nuge during his horrific season last year in a season in which the games actually meant something, almost seems like a revenge thing.

Again, why does it have to be such extremes on this board? The biggest Nuge fans criticize Draisaitl every chance they get and go to every length to defend their guy, the biggest Draisaitl fans criticize Nuge every chance they get and go to every length to defend their guy. They're both Oilers, they're both good players, neither are perfect. Why do some have to go out of their way to harshly criticize one or the other? Criticism is fine but some of the comments I've been reading in GDT's and PGT's with regards to Drai's recent struggles are too much.

I have never said they both aren't good players. I've been a huge Drai booster all season. Even have wagered on him. The guy is a stud. But it is a big red flag for me when players obviously dog it with the attitude of "who cares". He's a professional athlete making $8.5M, he should care! It says a lot if he doesn't.

Criticism is fine. But when every bit of criticism gets met with a defense that immediately puts down almost every other player on the team in an attempt to make Drai look better then that becomes too much for me. Replacement is 100% unwilling to acknowledge any flaws with Drai, doesn't watch games and then blindly blames every other player. Now that he has his HF cheering squad back, it seems like any criticism of Drai gets met with an entire highjacked thread trashing Puljujarvi or Strome or Chia or Nuge or anyone they can tbink of to try and deflect.

We don't need anymore Arnott's, Corson's, or Moreau type players who think they are above the team. Drai checking out with 10 games to go in the season while being one of the highest paid forwards in the league isn't acceptable to me. Never will be.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

For all the grief from people, I thought Lowe played well, looks like he adds quality to the depth.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

I cited the career stats, scoring ppg to indicate that last season or before did not change to any significant degree what this player had usually been. There were people running these numbers before the trade and afairc Hall was around 12th at the time. It doesn't change appreciably that he was one of the most consistent top performing players in the league, all the more impressive in that he's a young cohort doing that on a bad team without a PMD.

Hall's career PPG and S%:

Season	PPG	S%
10-11	0.65	11.8
11-12	0.87	13
12-13	1.11	10.4
13-14	1.07	10.8
14-15	0.72	8.9
15-16	0.79	9.1 -> traded here
16-17	0.74	8.4
17-18	1.22	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I can buy that there was reason to believe he could be this year's player (since he had been before), but that it was certain? Nah.

Evaluating Larsson is difficult. The player was definitely a need, but what is Larsson's fair value? A lot depends on the year. Last year I think Larsson was a beast, and was a big part of our success. This year, not so much, although so many things went wrong (and specific to Larsson, injuries and his Dad dying), and I think it is hard to judge any player accurately.

Anyway, unless you assume there was a better offer on the table, the NHL agreed that Larsson's value was 2015-2016 Hall. Again, 2015-2016 Hall was a fantastic player, but he wasn't near to 2017-2018 Hall in actual results (and going forward, will 2017-2018 Hall be able replicate his results, especially his S%?).

Would we be able to make the playoffs with Hall and not Larsson? Probably. Would Klefbom and Nurse have taken a step forward last year without Larsson? Who knows? All that can be said is last year the Oiler's with Larsson were much better than the Devil's with Hall, and that the opposite is true this year,and that both players had significant roles in the results of both seasons.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

Based on some of the stuff I've seen around New Jerseys run this year and Hall's central role there, it wouldn't surprise me if the bolded here wasn't true to some extent. Hall's clearly a competitor and a guy who thrives when it matters most. If anything, though, this highlights management's abject failure to build anything close to a competitive team around him. How long can one guy be expected to carry the whole load before they break? I guess we'll see with mcDavid cause there's no help coming there.

Yeah, possibly. It could also mean he wouldn't have had the same drive in Edmonton as he had this year in Jersey, b/c he was never gonna be 'the guy' here again, and/or it chuffed him seeing the Oiler's make the POs last year. Or it could all be a bunch of BS, and it is just the year-to-year fluctuations of a talented player. I can't say I know, and I would love to have Hall back. But, I also believe that, rightly or wrongly, Larsson represented his value at the time, and that the Oiler's needed a difference maker at D. I also believe Larsson was one last year.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

For all the grief from people, I thought Lowe played well, looks like he adds quality to the depth.

Yeah, the depth is starting to look pretty good at all positions. It's just sorting out the guys that were supposed to be difference makers at the top (Lucic, the top 4D, Talbot), but weren't. If most of them can bounce back, the Oiler's could start looking legit again very quickly.

 

[Little Fury]

Yeah, possibly. It could also mean he wouldn't have had the same drive in Edmonton as he had this year in Jersey, b/c he was never gonna be 'the guy' here again, and/or it chuffed him seeing the Oiler's make the POs last year. Or it could all be a bunch of BS, and it is just the year-to-year fluctuations of a talented player. I can't say I know, and I would love to have Hall back. But, I also believe that, rightly or wrongly, Larsson represented his value at the time, and that the Oiler's needed a difference maker at D. I also believe Larsson was one last year.

See, I just don't buy that narrative at all. He's a good player, but a difference-maker is something he's never been. Last year was a product in large part of having a group of actual NHL defensemen who were 100% healthy, something I don't think the Oilers had in a decade.

Not gonna rehash the old arguments again, but suffice it to say they traded a guy who tilts the ice the right way for a complimentary player who doesn't. Whatever happens to the respective teams going forward won't change that fact.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

See, I just don't buy that narrative at all. He's a good player, but a difference-maker is something he's never been. Last year was a product in large part of having a group of actual NHL defensemen who were 100% healthy, something I don't think the Oilers had in a decade.

Not gonna rehash the old arguments again, but suffice it to say they traded a guy who tilts the ice the right way for a complimentary player who doesn't. Whatever happens to the respective teams going forward won't change that fact.

I definitely don't think this year's versions of the two players are comparable in impact, but last year is much closer, especially factoring the cap in. Part of the reason the Oiler's had a functional D-core last year is because no one was playing way above their heads, and Larsson was a big part of that.

But yeah, whether Larsson was the answer or not is debatable, and that is fair enough.

 

[Little Fury]

I definitely don't think this year's versions of the two players are comparable in impact, but last year is much closer, especially factoring the cap in.

And all it took was for Hall to have a career-worst season for it to be close.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

And all it took was for Hall to have a career-worst season for it to be close.

Eh? It was one of three seasons of close to identical (counting) results in a row, and right in line with his career average (which seems to be quite extreme in fluctuation - Hall seems to have literally two modes, 60 point guy and 90 point guy). I don't think Hall is the problem in the valuation, but more Larsson who clearly isn't a #1 all-situations guy, but is also more than a #3 guy too, and was young and on a great contract. His value is the one that I find hard to judge.

Edit: I was mistaken to say his career average. What I meant to say, is that Hall seems basically to be a bimodal player, and the results were right in line with one of his 'modes'. He's had four seasons of a mid-60ish point pace. and three over 1 PPG (ignoring his rookie season). So deciding which is 'real' seems like a fools errand.

 

[shoop]

Anyway, unless you assume there was a better offer on the table, the NHL agreed that Larsson's value was 2015-2016 Hall. Again, 2015-2016 Hall was a fantastic player, but he wasn't near to 2017-2018 Hall in actual results (and going forward, will 2017-2018 Hall be able replicate his results, especially his S%?).

Would we be able to make the playoffs with Hall and not Larsson? Probably. Would Klefbom and Nurse have taken a step forward last year without Larsson? Who knows? All that can be said is last year the Oiler's with Larsson were much better than the Devil's with Hall, and that the opposite is true this year,and that both players had significant roles in the results of both seasons.

Yup. But the argument is always that Chiarelli has to be fired.

Maturity is a weird thing. You never know if or when guys are going to achieve it. The turnaround from Hall this year has been amazing and if he wins so be it.

Everybody craptalking Chia assumes a "better" or "good" GM could have gotten a much better return on Hall. This time last year I think the Devils would have taken Larsson back given the opportunity.

 

[PerformanceMcOil]

Yup. But the argument is always that Chiarelli has to be fired.

Maturity is a weird thing. You never know if or when guys are going to achieve it. The turnaround from Hall this year has been amazing and if he wins so be it.

Everybody craptalking Chia assumes a "better" or "good" GM could have gotten a much better return on Hall. This time last year I think the Devils would have taken Larsson back given the opportunity.

Exactly. Chia may or may not be a good GM, but the fact that no one offered anything more than Larsson for Hall shows that either the rest of the league undervalued Hall as well, and/or Larsson was considered a valuable piece that no one was willing to beat (or of course you can believe that Chia purposely passed on someone obviously better because reasons).

I mean, is there a team in the league that couldn't use this year's Hall? So why didn't anyone back up the truck and blow the Devil's offer away? I guess you could argue like Replacement did that Chia is terrible, but still league average?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yup. But the argument is always that Chiarelli has to be fired.

Maturity is a weird thing. You never know if or when guys are going to achieve it. The turnaround from Hall this year has been amazing and if he wins so be it.

Everybody craptalking Chia assumes a "better" or "good" GM could have gotten a much better return on Hall. This time last year I think the Devils would have taken Larsson back given the opportunity.

Sorry, but this is silly. As stated it wasn't a matter, at all, of anybody finding better trade value for Hall. It was simply keeping Hall. You can't tell me a team with full seasons worth of McD, Drai, Hall, with Talbot in net, with Nurse surging isn't making the playoffs either this season or last. NJ are a far worse team than us without Hall and Maroon and they made the show.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Exactly. Chia may or may not be a good GM, but the fact that no one offered anything more than Larsson for Hall shows that either the rest of the league undervalued Hall as well, and/or Larsson was considered a valuable piece that no one was willing to beat (or of course you can believe that Chia purposely passed on someone obviously better because reasons).

I mean, is there a team in the league that couldn't use this year's Hall? So why didn't anyone back up the truck and blow the Devil's offer away? I guess you could argue like Replacement did that Chia is terrible, but still league average?

The other thing that needs to be considered is there's an oft stated narrative around the league that the Oilers Wreck players. To some degree and in some cases this is actually the case. The difficulty is such thought is lazily generalized and inferred unto all players. Hall was not wrecked by this org and was always going to be resilient enough to withstand any negative impact of this org. He was going to rebound. His psyche is pretty resolute. Its not in his makeup to not be among the best. Turnaround was going to occur. This is where we differ.

 

[shoop]

Sorry, but this is silly. As stated it wasn't a matter, at all, of anybody finding better trade value for Hall. It was simply keeping Hall. You can't tell me a team with full seasons worth of McD, Drai, Hall, with Talbot in net, with Nurse surging isn't making the playoffs either this season or last. NJ are a far worse team than us without Hall and Maroon and they made the show.

I was just about to defend you as you have been respectful and decent for the most part in your re-birth but ... here comes the Replacement of old. No reason to call me, or my 'post', silly.

Hall needed to grow the eff up. A mature, serious player wouldn't have pouted for an entire season like Hall did in 2016-17. Hall has said that he

didn't want to talk to coaches. I didn't really want to have dialogue with coaches. I just wanted to play. And a lot of guys are like that.

Why didn't he want to talk to coaches? He wasn't mature enough to get that he needed to have a dialogue with coaches. That unwillingess to talk to coaches is why he needed to go.

Why do you suppose he is willing to 'have a dialogue' with coaches now? My guess is after a painful first season with the Devils he finally got that it wasn't coaches and management who were wrong. It was him. He is finally willing to have a dialogue with coaches and he is a likely Hart finalist.

 

[Drivesaitl]

^ @shoop As noted I'm very frustrated with the club and the seeming no direction. I could have worded that better, and again sorry.

I just feel that the premise of "how do we know any GM could get better in return is rendered errant when one considers that the trade itself was not in any way required.

I don't trade players that I consider elite bonafide players. Not how I would roll. I don't much like a GM that is in the very habit of doing that. My disgust, properly directed, is at Chia for this gongshow mess of a Frankenstein club.

 

[shoop]

^ @shoop As noted I'm very frustrated with the club and the seeming no direction. I could have worded that better, and again sorry.

I just feel that the premise of "how do we know any GM could get better in return is rendered errant when one considers that the trade itself was not in any way required.

Apology accepted. All good.

I think I presented evidence as to why the trade was needed. I was on the fence about the trade, but after I read that interview after Hall's gong show 2016-17 and how well the Oilers played last season I changed my mind. I don't get why you are making the argument that the trade was not in any way required.

What could the Oilers have done to make Hall willing to have a dialogue with coaches here?

 

[Digger12]

It's the same group that was whispering about him when he had a cold stretch 3 months ago too.

For some people having a big contract means you need to score 2 points every game or out come the pitchforks.

And it doesn't help that no matter what Draisaitl produces offensively, some fans simply will consider him lazy or "checked out" because of the style of game he plays, how he likes to slow the game down and suck the opposition towards him so he can dish to his linemates. He's not a 5'10" sparkplug who's running around a hundred miles an hour, giving tons of effort but with little to show for it. Guys like that are easy to like even when they're not actually pushing the needle in the right direction.

Draisaitl is essentially the anti-Yak.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Apology accepted. All good.

I think I presented evidence as to why the trade was needed. I was on the fence about the trade, but after I read that interview after Hall's gong show 2016-17 and how well the Oilers played last season I changed my mind. I don't get why you are making the argument that the trade was not in any way required.

What could the Oilers have done to make Hall willing to have a dialogue with coaches here?

The unique situation was that suddenly there were stronger Alpha's than Taylor Hall here in McD and Drai. Both are so damned mature that they would have come to expect optimal direction from Hall and he would have learned to expect it from himself. I do think McDavid is such an eye opener to so many players.

Back in the day (that always sounds old) Mess used to state how much he learned from Gretz in every way, as a person. Mess learned excellence from Gretz. Or at least the latter chapters in that development. People forget that Mess didn't hit the ground running in his pro career and he was very young. It took awhile for him to adapt.

Back to present McD doesn't even have to say or do much. Like McJesus he is he taps somebody on the back and they know. Words don't even have to be spoken. Look at McD. The eyes say it all. Get refocused, get out there, get it done. Hall would have been impacted. I think he already was to an extent. If Hall had a complete year of McD we might have seen more change.