Trades, Rumours, Expansion and Free Agency? Interview Week

[Daisy Jane]

I have the same question.

that's why it's stupid . but the PA aren't really the smartest bunch in the world.
I get that it's McDavid (and when Matthew's come up, i know it's our best player so ante up) but to set the bar at 13+.. how does it seriously benefit having 17 percent of your cap tied up in ONE person. and no matter how much you feel you are worth it - how does it make your team better if YOU are earning 17 percent of a pie.

and it's not like Drai is gonna be all "well yah McDavid." he's gonna be all like well who scored more goals/points in the playoffs - that will be me."

Chia's gonna chia though

 

[ShaneFalco]

Don't know if this was discussed already, but Leafs are reportedly in on Marleau.

Yup but would need to make some room - too many forwards as is

 

[gabeliscious]

Brown is going to get closer to 3 than 2. I'd guess around 2.75. Look at his comparables

Brown 23 years old, 42 points in 89 games

Tatar 23 years old, 47 points in 100 games: 3x2.75
Kreider 23 years old, 40 points in 89 games, 2x2.475
Marchand 23 years old, 42 points in 97 games, 2x2.5
Kuznetsov 23 years old, 46 points in 97 games, 2x3.00
Coyle 22 years old, 47 points in 115 games, 5x3.2
Penner 24 years old, 52 points in 101 games, 5x4.25

He's outperformed(on PPG) most of these guys in less games by a tad, but they're pretty close. No matter if he gets 2, 3 or longer he's likely to get at least 2.5.

Hyman meanwhile I feel gets over estimated. Looking at his comparables

Hyman 25 years old, 34 points in 98 games(playing with Matthews it that means anything)

Colbourne 24 years old, 34 points in 96 games, 2x1.275
Ben Smith 25 years old, 30 points in 95 games, 2x1.5
Calvert 23 years old, 38 points in 95 games, 2x987k
Hayes 24 years old, 31 points in 96 games, 1x925k
Beau Bennett, 23 years old, 33 points in 96 games, 1x800k
Gerbe, 23 years old, 37 points in 84 games, 3x1.45

It's hard to find great comparables for Hyman as they're almost all younger because of his path to the NHL, but he really shouldn't get a dime over 1.5 and honestly I'll be kinda annoyed if he gets more than a million.

i agree with your valuations of them. i think the other thing is that management probably looks at brown as a long term piece. a 3rd line of grundstrom-kadri-brown is pretty solid. Hyman on the top line is a place holder for something better. i dont think anyone actually considers Hyman deserving of being on the top line with Matthews. i think it is only one good dry spell for Matthews before someone with more offensive upside gets slotted into his spot.

imo Kap is as good as hyman defensively but has much more offensive upside. Hyman can end up going from top line to 4th line. that isnt the type of player we should overpay for. imo i can see hyman getting 2 years x $1.5 or if he wants a little more term maybe 3 years x $1.25. i know it seems low but really if we didnt have Hyman we can replace him from within with probably one of 5 deserving players on the marlies. Brown in contrast has upside. i would be comfortable giving him $3.5 x 5 years.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

i agree with your valuations of them. i think the other thing is that management probably looks at brown as a long term piece. a 3rd line of grundstrom-kadri-brown is pretty solid. Hyman on the top line is a place holder for something better. i dont think anyone actually considers Hyman deserving of being on the top line with Matthews. i think it is only one good dry spell for Matthews before someone with more offensive upside gets slotted into his spot.

imo Kap is as good as hyman defensively but has much more offensive upside. Hyman can end up going from top line to 4th line. that isnt the type of player we should overpay for. imo i can see hyman getting 2 years x $1.5 or if he wants a little more term maybe 3 years x $1.25. i know it seems low but really if we didnt have Hyman we can replace him from within with probably one of 5 deserving players on the marlies. Brown in contrast has upside. i would be comfortable giving him $3.5 x 5 years.

You are still getting close to or at 5 mill then.

I am sorry, but it's time to move on from JvR and Bozak once and for all. They score, but that's not our problem. We have guys waiting in the wings who can score. We need the cap space, the assets are a nice bonus, and we need guys who play a better two-way game. Even Leivo is a bigger upgrade than those two in that regard.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't think McDavid really sets that much of a benchmark for Matthews at all and he certainly doesn't set a benchmark for Marner/Nylander. I mean sure it's great to look at McDavid and say well Matthews is maybe 2 million worse than McDavid so take that off from whatever McDavid gets but that's not really how it works. Eichel will be Matthews guy to point to. Eichel may try to point to McDavid and take off some if there's not a guy in that 9 million range to look at. Tarasenko is the highest post ELC contract right now from this CBA. Eichel and Matthews will almost certainly beat that, but not sure how much precedence there will be to beat it by 4 million.

Marner, and Nylander you need not not worry. Their comparables are Pastrnak and Draisaitl this summer. Boston will be pointing to Forsberg for Pastrnak. Draisaitl will be pointing to Tarasenko. With inflation and improvement they(Marner/Nylander) likely get between 6.5 and 7.5 unless they completely go crazy. I'm hoping Nylander signs this offseason before that happens and Marner next.

 

[Menzinger]

Its not that black-and-white though. So who followed suit with 7+ million contracts after Tarasenko?

Thats kind of my point... One player doesn't set a bench mark. It'll be a combination of Eichel/Draisaitl/Pastrnak/McDavid that will set 'benchmarks' to Matthews/Marner/Nylander.

If McDavid signs for 13.25, and Draisaitl signs for 7.5, we have nothing to worry about IMO, as it will likely be hard for Matthews to make a case of earning more than 9 mil, and Marner/Nylander more than 7.

Not just Tarasenko through - you have Ekblad making 7.5 post ELC. Guys like Gaudreau earning 6.75, etc. I do agree that Eichel and Draisaitl will play big roles in contract comparisons for the Leafs young guys.

That said, I don't see Matthews agreeing to sign for over 4 million less than McDavid. It'll cost the Leafs at least 10 million, and likely closer to 11.

 

[Menzinger]

Still looking at comparisons... 1.25 mill for Hyman will not happen unless he takes a major pay cut. Brown for 2 mill would be lucky too. We may be able to get Hyman for a little bit under 2 mill. 1.75 mill would probably be the lowest unless he undervalues himself. Brown will probably make 500k-1 mill more on the same sort of deal.

With the following lineup:
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
JvR-Bozak-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Martin-???-Rychel
Fehr

Rielly-???
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Rosen/Borgman-Carrick
Marincin-Marchenko

Andersen-???

The cap hit is 66.025 mill approximately. Which means we have a little under 9 mill to use to sign a top 4 defenseman, a backup, re-sign Hyman and Brown and get a 4C without getting into bonus overages.

The thing with Hyman is he's an RFA with little off dive output. I still think he gets a deal if 3 million over 2 years (1.5 per year). Brown admittedly gets a little harder to hide, but I'd think management will look to bridge him.

 

[bobermay]

Not just Tarasenko through - you have Ekblad making 7.5 post ELC. Guys like Gaudreau earning 6.75, etc. I do agree that Eichel and Draisaitl will play big roles in contract comparisons for the Leafs young guys.

That said, I don't see Matthews agreeing to sign for over 4 million less than McDavid. It'll cost the Leafs at least 10 million, and likely closer to 11.

No way can I see it going north of 10 million, not when you're only buying up 4 UFA years.

One player does not set a bench mark.

 

[Barilko14]

I don't think McDavid really sets that much of a benchmark for Matthews at all and he certainly doesn't set a benchmark for Marner/Nylander. I mean sure it's great to look at McDavid and say well Matthews is maybe 2 million worse than McDavid so take that off from whatever McDavid gets but that's not really how it works. Eichel will be Matthews guy to point to. Eichel may try to point to McDavid and take off some if there's not a guy in that 9 million range to look at. Tarasenko is the highest post ELC contract right now from this CBA. Eichel and Matthews will almost certainly beat that, but not sure how much precedence there will be to beat it by 4 million.

Marner, and Nylander you need not not worry. Their comparables are Pastrnak and Draisaitl this summer. Boston will be pointing to Forsberg for Pastrnak. Draisaitl will be pointing to Tarasenko. With inflation and improvement they(Marner/Nylander) likely get between 6.5 and 7.5 unless they completely go crazy. I'm hoping Nylander signs this offseason before that happens and Marner next.

I think it's naive to think McDavid's contract has no bearing on Matthews. And players look around the room before they look around the league. Draisaitl will be looking at McDavid, Edm will look at Tarasenko, but Drai will be pointing to McDavid.

Matthews will be looking at both Eichel and McDavid, which will lead to Marner looking at Matthews.

It rarely takes ~5 years for others to catch up when a barrier (the $12/13M bar) gets broken. If Matthews isn't worthy of also joining the 10M+ club then who is?

 

[Menzinger]

No way can I see it going north of 10 million, not when you're only buying up 4 UFA years.

One player does not set a bench mark.

McDavid is essentially just earning what Crosby did when he signed his first RFA contract in terms of % of the cap. Eichel'a next contract, i strongly suspect will be for 10 million or more.

At present we'll just have to wait and see how things unfold. I do hope Leafs are able to get team friendly deals for their stars, but I'm not optimistic that will happen.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Cal Petersen to LA.

They get another really good goalie prospect to groom.

 

[Gabriel426]

that's why it's stupid . but the PA aren't really the smartest bunch in the world.
I get that it's McDavid (and when Matthew's come up, i know it's our best player so ante up) but to set the bar at 13+.. how does it seriously benefit having 17 percent of your cap tied up in ONE person. and no matter how much you feel you are worth it - how does it make your team better if YOU are earning 17 percent of a pie.

and it's not like Drai is gonna be all "well yah McDavid." he's gonna be all like well who scored more goals/points in the playoffs - that will be me."

Chia's gonna chia though

Think it is time for Oilers to say goodbye to Drai. B/c I am 100% some teams(Nucks, Yokes..) will offer 10mil for Drai and there is no way Oilers will match it.
As for us. Unless Matthews wins the Hart and Art Ross next year or have a 50goals/100pts season, he will not get over 10mil. Think Stamkos got 7.5mil after his ELC but he did had at least one 50 goals season.
I really don't blame Chia for offering that contract since what else can he do. if McDavid don't sign and hit RFA status, it will be worst.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

McDavid is essentially just earning what Crosby did when he signed his first RFA contract in terms of % of the cap. Eichel'a next contract, i strongly suspect will be for 10 million or more.

At present we'll just have to wait and see how things unfold. I do hope Leafs are able to get team friendly deals for their stars, but I'm not optimistic that will happen.

Sabres fans think they can get Eichel for 8x8.

And we are the delusional ones.

 

[Gabriel426]

McDavid is essentially just earning what Crosby did when he signed his first RFA contract in terms of % of the cap. Eichel'a next contract, i strongly suspect will be for 10 million or more.

At present we'll just have to wait and see how things unfold. I do hope Leafs are able to get team friendly deals for their stars, but I'm not optimistic that will happen.

Buffalo will pay the moon of Eichel as he is the golden boy and want to make noise.
But he does not worth 10mil based on his past two years. I know he was injured this season but a lot of his points are from PP and if anything the Sabres are not trending upwards like the Oilers.

As for Matthews, I really don't know what is his fair value as of today, since he has another year to perform. But if his production next year is 40goals and 80points, he is not a 10mil player yet. However, he scores 50goals and 100 pts, thats a 10mil player.

 

[senor martinez]

Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 years.

 

[Barilko14]

Think it is time for Oilers to say goodbye to Drai. B/c I am 100% some teams(Nucks, Yokes..) will offer 10mil for Drai and there is no way Oilers will match it.
As for us. Unless Matthews wins the Hart and Art Ross next year or have a 50goals/100pts season, he will not get over 10mil. Think Stamkos got 7.5mil after his ELC but he did had at least one 50 goals season.
I really don't blame Chia for offering that contract since what else can he do. if McDavid don't sign and hit RFA status, it will be worst.

So you think it's more likely Stamkos' contract signed in 2011 will used as a comparable for Matthews new contract in 2019, then McDavid's contract for the 2018 season.

 

[Barilko14]

Buffalo will pay the moon of Eichel as he is the golden boy and want to make noise.
But he does not worth 10mil based on his past two years. I know he was injured this season but a lot of his points are from PP and if anything the Sabres are not trending upwards like the Oilers.

As for Matthews, I really don't know what is his fair value as of today, since he has another year to perform. But if his production next year is 40goals and 80points, he is not a 10mil player yet. However, he scores 50goals and 100 pts, thats a 10mil player.

OK, but if we are paying him for 8 years, we are not paying him based on what he has accomplished, we'll be paying him for what we think he will accomplish.

We aren't talking a 2 year contract here.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Buffalo will pay the moon of Eichel as he is the golden boy and want to make noise.
But he does not worth 10mil based on his past two years. I know he was injured this season but a lot of his points are from PP and if anything the Sabres are not trending upwards like the Oilers.

As for Matthews, I really don't know what is his fair value as of today, since he has another year to perform. But if his production next year is 40goals and 80points, he is not a 10mil player yet. However, he scores 50goals and 100 pts, thats a 10mil player.

I think Matthews gets 40 goals and more assists next year. I think 8 years and anywhere between 8.5 and 9 is reasonable. Maybe you go to 9.5 mill for him, but I don't think you make 10 mill unless McDavid really blows the top on things. Nylander should go 8 x 6-6.5 mill. Marner gets probably close to the middle between the two. 8x7-7.5 mill. Considering the rest of our players will make 5 mill or less (besides Horton), we should be able to afford it. 45 mill for Martin, Rielly, Zaitsev, Andersen, Kadri, and the Big 3 if Nylander makes 6.5, Matthews 9.5 and Marner 7.5. 30 mill for the rest of the team. You may take a decent chunk out for the rest of our top 4 defense, but besides that you have ~20 mill for a bunch of guys who are likely not going to make more than 2-2.5 mill a year. You could pay the other guys on average around 1.5 mill a year, and that includes depth guys who are likely going to make close to league minimum and a bunch of other guys in our lineup who will make the same. So you can still afford a half decent top 6 forward or two.

 

[Barilko14]

I think Matthews gets 40 goals and more assists next year. I think 8 years and anywhere between 8.5 and 9 is reasonable. Maybe you go to 9.5 mill for him, but I don't think you make 10 mill unless McDavid really blows the top on things. Nylander should go 8 x 6-6.5 mill. Marner gets probably close to the middle between the two. 8x7-7.5 mill. Considering the rest of our players will make 5 mill or less (besides Horton), we should be able to afford it. 45 mill for Martin, Rielly, Zaitsev, Andersen, Kadri, and the Big 3 if Nylander makes 6.5, Matthews 9.5 and Marner 7.5. 30 mill for the rest of the team. You may take a decent chunk out for the rest of our top 4 defense, but besides that you have ~20 mill for a bunch of guys who are likely not going to make more than 2-2.5 mill a year. You could pay the other guys on average around 1.5 mill a year, and that includes depth guys who are likely going to make close to league minimum and a bunch of other guys in our lineup who will make the same. So you can still afford a half decent top 6 forward or two.

Doubtful Matthews gets $4M+ less than McDavid, and both Friedman and Lebrun have both reported they've heard $13.25 for McDavid.

If we get the big 3 for under $25M I'd consider that a win now.

 

[Kiwi]

Doubtful Matthews gets $4M+ less than McDavid, and both Friedman and Lebrun have both reported they've heard $13.25 for McDavid.

If we get the big 3 for under $25M I'd consider that a win now.

Yep

We need to look at how to get rid of the Horton contact as Matthew's and Marner's deals kick in
That contract plus the big three are going to eat a ton of cap space

I think it will only have a year to run at that stage

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Brendan Smith goes back to NYR on a 4x4.35 mill.

Well I guess leave it up to NYR to overpay FA's, even if they are their own.

Leafs would never pay that for him anyways.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Brendan Smith goes back to NYR on a 4x4.35 mill.

Well I guess leave it up to NYR to overpay FA's, even if they are their own.

Leafs would never pay that for him anyways.

Crazy money. Just crazy.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Crazy money. Just crazy.

It'll bite the Rangers. They may also go for Shattenkirk, so that will be entertaining to watch.

 

[dubplatepressure]

It'll bite the Rangers. They may also go for Shattenkirk, so that will be entertaining to watch.

I just checked his numbers... he's actually got really good suppression numbers.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/JY2372CSN?:display_count=yes

Still.. lotta money for a #4D.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Chad Johnson will apparently go to Buffalo as well, which means Raanta-Domingue is likely what Arizona is running with.

Miller, Mason, Elliott, Condon, Bernier, Nilsson, Kinkaid, McElhinney and Kuemper are the only NHL quality UFA's out there assuming this is true. Niemi is also out there, and a few guys on the trade market.

Anaheim, Philly, Ottawa, Calgary, Toronto, NJD, NYR, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Dallas (if they don't keep Lehtonen), Winnipeg, LA and Vancouver all need backups. That's assuming teams like Chicago and Minnesota use guys like Forsberg and Stalock as backups next year.

13+ teams need.
10 NHL caliber FA's.

Some teams may rely upon prospects, like the Leafs and Sparks, but some teams may also may need to make trades or use guys like Hammond or Hutchison next year.