Speculation: Trade Deadline Discussion

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Another strawman. I never said he was my biggest worry (Kesler and Perry are bigger issues to name a few). I said his contract was the biggest personnel mistake to this point in 2018, much more worrisome than getting rid of Wagner or adding two old rental players.

I have no problem with people disagreeing, but no one has yet to explain why his extension was a good decision given the ducks other salary cap constraints. You're welcome to explain to me why Cogs is more valuable than Silf or Henrique (or for that matter Gibson, Montour, and Kase). But feel free to make that argument.

Of all the things that piss me off about this team Cogs’ signing isn’t even on my radar. Feel free to continue your rant without me.

 

[duckpuck]

Of all the things that piss me off about this team Cogs’ signing isn’t even on my radar. Feel free to continue your rant without me.

Rant - LOL Not my fault you keep mischaracterizing what I say. I'm hardly ranting.

At the same time, you said this in another thread:

"My concern is that the moves are getting worse and worse. First it was Souray and Allen (at least you could kind of understand the thought process of needing to add size to the D core). Then it was bring in Stoner for an overpayment, fine since Souray got injured and Allen was Allen I guess. Then it was trade a cheap young goal scorer in Palmieri for a 2nd round pick. Then it was sign Bieksa to that ludicrous extension. Now it's bring in Chimera and Kelly to join Bieksa, Beauchemin, and Vermette as guys who should have retired last year.

Where does it end?"

So you say the above (correctly I would add). But you can't see that Cogs extension is the exact same thing - a generous contract to an "aging veteran" who brings intangibles but diminishing (and never elite) skills. Just like Bieksa, Stoner, etc., that is not wise given the ducks budget and salary cap constraints. I think Cogs contract is a bit of an overpayment (not egregious), but not one the ducks can afford if they want to keep players that are more important to their future.

 

[okdart]

I'm late to the conversation but man, this trade deadline really bummed me out. So much hype around us acquiring some good players.. and we end up with Chimera and Kelly. They are fine players but definitely not what I was expecting.

 

[Kalv]

I'm late to the conversation but man, this trade deadline really bummed me out. So much hype around us acquiring some good players.. and we end up with Chimera and Kelly. They are fine players but definitely not what I was expecting.

Where did you saw that hype?

I am quite ok - don`t understand why we gave up Wagner but ok.
This is definitely not a year I want to give a lot away for rentals.

I had 5% hope for Karlsson, but oh well

 

[AngelDuck]

Rant - LOL Not my fault you keep mischaracterizing what I say. I'm hardly ranting.

At the same time, you said this in another thread:

"My concern is that the moves are getting worse and worse. First it was Souray and Allen (at least you could kind of understand the thought process of needing to add size to the D core). Then it was bring in Stoner for an overpayment, fine since Souray got injured and Allen was Allen I guess. Then it was trade a cheap young goal scorer in Palmieri for a 2nd round pick. Then it was sign Bieksa to that ludicrous extension. Now it's bring in Chimera and Kelly to join Bieksa, Beauchemin, and Vermette as guys who should have retired last year.

Where does it end?"

So you say the above (correctly I would add). But you can't see that Cogs extension is the exact same thing - a generous contract to an "aging veteran" who brings intangibles but diminishing (and never elite) skills. Just like Bieksa, Stoner, etc., that is not wise given the ducks budget and salary cap constraints. I think Cogs contract is a bit of an overpayment (not egregious), but not one the ducks can afford if they want to keep players that are more important to their future.

Actually I said that, not him, so I guess I'll answer to this:

The difference between Cogs and a Bieksa or a Stoner is that Cogs can easily be moved out in a year or two if need be. The Stoner contract was an overpayment the day it happened, most on HF knew that. As we saw, we had to give up Theodore just to have someone take that contract. The Bieksa contract was ridiculous. Signing a player to an extension before he played a game for you instead of waiting to see how he performed throughout the season and then making him an offer midseason if he did well. Just silly.

And honestly, it's just flat out f***ing stupid to compare Cogliano to hacks like Stoner and Bieksa. Those two guys didn't mean shit to Ducks history before they signed those contracts and mean very little to Ducks history after their contracts are over. You obviously can't say that about Cogs

 

[Masch78]

I think a lot of disappointment because some believed Karlsson was really available and McDonagh was being moved. But for the first one you have to break the bank, both in terms of cash and trading price. Honestly, if we would have lost Terry, Steel, our 1st and someone else there would be a riot. Add the fact that he will get 12m per season (especially with the SoCal tax situation) for a few years or even over the max. contract lenght. Then he has a modified no trade (10 teams list) clause. We don't know if we would even be able to land him. McDonagh also has the same clause. We don't knwo if we are on this either. From the other players dealt today. Tatar, price would have been ok but you get another player over 5m for the next years with a (modified) NTC. Evander Kane, interesting player skillwise but a cancer in the locker room. I think he would have been a interesting gamble. Hartman would have been a good addition but the price for what he is was a little high. And Nash is way too expensive imho.

The problem with our team right now, we can not afford to lose the top of our forward prospects. We are quite thin up there and only Steel, Terry and maybe Comtois will be top 6 players. That is the main difference to Tampa. Their core is signed for a few years and hitting their prime. They will also get in trouble when Kucherov, McDonagh needs to be resigned.

In the end of the day, I always want an excitement at the deadline and what is more exciting than a big trade. But we had a big one with Henrique and I did not expect them to pay heavy prices. If you can land a good player for Petterson, Larsson or Mahura + a 2nd ok. If not stay away. And I doubt there was much available for it. I would not part with Steel or Terry right now for a rental. The team went into this situation before. Burke left us in a limbo but it was worth the cup. But back then we had a team that reached the finals before, we had Scott Niedermayer and we had the chance to land Pronger, we had a top winger in Selanne who wasn't after big money and took incredible discounts. We had two incredible sophmore players with Perry and Getzlaf, who played a huge part in the run. That is a completely different and very unique situation. Imho it was right to do it back then, it would have been wrong now.

I still don't understand Chimera and Kelly because I don't see what they bring over Wags. On the other hand, the 4th line will completely be gone next year and they will accept every situation, even if they play 4 min a night. If Terry signs he will play.

And for the Gulls prospects, I believe management wants to ensure they go deep in the AHL playoffs and therefore they want to keep the their team intact.

 

[kesboss]

Know that it's not going to happend, but would love to try sign Kovaltchuk in the summer for last push with this core.

 

[Kalv]

Know that it's not going to happend, but would love to try sign Kovaltchuk in the summer for last push with this core.

I don`t.

For this team to go forward we need to rather take Steel and pleasepleaseplease sign Terry too. We need to give them the best chance to develop in the AHL/NHL based on their play and we also need to give Eaves the best chance to recover. I do believe that Steel and Terry can have a some kind of impact in the NHL next season, albeit I`m not sure they can do it right off the bat. But they should be able to add some sort of secondary or third`ish scoring.
Steel and Terry should be put into our teams plans going forward. Kovi I`m sure will go and want that big long term contract that would really not be that good in our situation.

Then we also have to think how we can improve our defensive situation, It`s quite certain that with our prospects alone we can`t put up a contender-like defense.

I would want to give Silfverberg another chance next year but I`m starting to feel that is not what Bobandy will do.

To sum up: We have to retool with what we have and can and the big contracts to other teams veterans should be avoided.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don`t.

For this team to go forward we need to rather take Steel and pleasepleaseplease sign Terry too. We need to give them the best chance to develop in the AHL/NHL based on their play and we also need to give Eaves the best chance to recover. I do believe that Steel and Terry can have a some kind of impact in the NHL next season, albeit I`m not sure they can do it right off the bat. But they should be able to add some sort of secondary or third`ish scoring.
Steel and Terry should be put into our teams plans going forward. Kovi I`m sure will go and want that big long term contract that would really not be that good in our situation.

Then we also have to think how we can improve our defensive situation, It`s quite certain that with our prospects alone we can`t put up a contender-like defense.

I would want to give Silfverberg another chance next year but I`m starting to feel that is not what Bobandy will do.

To sum up: We have to retool with what we have and can and the big contracts to other teams veterans should be avoided.

I agree with most tho i think we have more than steel and terry competing... i think jones and comtois will earn long looks also.

On defense im not so worried fowler lindholm manson is a pretty solid top 3, montour still developing but hes a nhl dmen for sure... i think 1 spot will go to larsson/welinski and then i think wr need to find an expierenced guy for our bottom pairing.... who doesnt try to do too much, a safe guy. Give fowler manson, and lindholm montour... then have larsson and safe vet rhd, or safe lhd with welinski.

Im more worried about the kesler line than anything.... cogs has been dogshit since his suspension, kesler clearly needs to be taken out of the line up if we want any hope for his future, and silfverberg is cold... at the same time a lot of silfverbergs play is with cogs and kes and they are borderline anchors this year.

Let vermette brown kelly chimera all leave and let young guys get looks.

 

[Vipers31]

I'm sorry but a retool that leaves us with steel as our 1c after getzlaf is over the hill ain't even close to getting it done. I'd rather sell and accumulate assets and tank and get great picks than be a middling team that is fighting year in and year out for a playoff spot without any elite talent that can take our team deep into the playoffs. Make a run at the playoffs the next two years and then rebuild around franchise talents.

That's nice in theory, but you should realize that a full-on tank could mean the Ducks' next playoff run isn't happening in Anaheim.

The Samuelis seem to have a lot of passion for the game, but it doesn't get them to throw all financial considerations out the window, as evidenced by our status as a budget team. You go full tank, and look at a few years near the bottom, and I don't want to envision how our attendance and revenue numbers develop. Whether this market is able to sustain a full-on rebuild is pretty wide open, so I'd just advise to form such wishes extra carefully. Anything but a re-tool that keeps us in striking distance of playoff contention might simply be out of the question.

 

[Kalv]

I agree with most tho i think we have more than steel and terry competing... i think jones and comtois will earn long looks also.

On defense im not so worried fowler lindholm manson is a pretty solid top 3, montour still developing but hes a nhl dmen for sure... i think 1 spot will go to larsson/welinski and then i think wr need to find an expierenced guy for our bottom pairing.... who doesnt try to do too much, a safe guy. Give fowler manson, and lindholm montour... then have larsson and safe vet rhd, or safe lhd with welinski.

Im more worried about the kesler line than anything.... cogs has been dog**** since his suspension, kesler clearly needs to be taken out of the line up if we want any hope for his future, and silfverberg is cold... at the same time a lot of silfverbergs play is with cogs and kes and they are borderline anchors this year.

Let vermette brown kelly chimera all leave and let young guys get looks.

I don`t believe Jones will be much better than Ritchie, and I rather have Jones play a good role in the AHL to see in what he can develop into.
I don`t believe Comtois will be ready next year.

Fowler-Lindholm-Manson is not bad but as we see this year, we need them to be better or we need to add to that to look very good. And I don`t see that Montour would be a definite answer - ideally he`s our 5 but then we need a 4.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Can I just remind everyone that the word "men" is plural.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

We could have easily beaten what Tampa offered for McDonagh and JT Miller. Easily. Our D would have been the best we've had since Pronger/Nieds era and on par with or better than any other team in the league. Our offense would have benefited from having another top nine guy on pace for 50ish points to move up and down the lineup. This was a huge miss for a team that is supposed to be in contention for cups this year and next.

Nothing anyone says will convince me otherwise. Today was a massive disappointment.

I wouldn't say easily, we probably could have but I'm not sure what a better offer from us would ve looked like. Howden and especially Hajek are pretty legitimate prospects who are very underrated for some reason, but overall it's pretty much impossible to tell unless you know how New York valued the Namestnikov/Miller swap. I'm inclined to think they saw it as a definite upgrade and are the ones that pushed for it, but it's a bit of a weird one.

 

[Duck Off]

I get the anxiety over doing nothing, but I don't quite understand all of the hate for the Wagner trade. Wagner has been really bad, part of a line that has been really bad, and Murray added two different looks. Whether it works or doesn't really is up for debate until we see it.

I just am not sure if everyone hates it in a vacuum or because that's all he did.

I think the bold is pretty accurate. That trade probably isn't shit on as much if it's not the only thing we did. However, I really don't like it. I'm actually fine with adding Chimera. I don't expect much, if anything, from him, but I'm fine with shaking up the 4th line. What I don't like is removing the most physical forward from the team. I will admit that I value physical play (not fighting like Dirk) more than most here, and to remove your most physical player at the deadline for not much, if any, of an upgrade is a significant mistake. You ware teams down in the playoffs. Physical play is a part of that. I wouldn't feel as upset about the trade if we dealt a late pick for Chimera. I'm not overly fond of Wagner. I just think physical play is more important than Murray realizes. Plus, Wagner had a pretty good playoff run last year right? If we added someone who added physicality to the lineup, than I'm just a little bummed about this deal. Is the trade god awful? No. However, it's pretty poor IMO.

Overall, I'd say Murray probably made the right moves for the big club. I would've just kept Wags but I see the upside, and with Kesler clearly not 100%, this probably isn't the year to raise the stakes. Always disappointing when not much happens on deadline day but it is what it is.

I have no clue why he didn't address the Gulls, though. They're in a good spot and just lost an important player, at the very least Fehr should've been replaced in some fashion. He always seems to make an AHL move around this time too, puzzling why he left it alone this year.

I'm not bummed that Murray didn't give up prime assets for a rental. However, I think the addition of a defenseman like Cole could have been significant. That's where he failed IMO. If those guys were going for premiums, I'd have no issue, but they weren't. He screwed up there. I blame it on his and RC's infatuation with Bieksa to think he's remotely NHL capable.

Agree about the Gulls. They removed Fehr, who was huge for them, and didn't attempt to replace him for their playoff run.

Fan angst and cynicism aside, I'm just going to view this as Murray making the decision to stand pat. And while I don't agree with that entirely, I think the choice is justifiable. He kicked tires and did his due diligence to see if there were any bigger steals he couldn't pass on, but I don't believe he was really feeling pressure to be a buyer. There wasn't much beyond the 4th line he could tinker with if he wanted to sell, so he took a flier on some old guys and swapped Wagner for a guy that might bring a different attitude and left it at that.

I wanted to think that he could make a decent move now for someone with term that could help this season and beyond, but some of the non-rental big fish are still left standing at the end of the deadline. I'm sure some groundwork has been laid and he will take another run at it at the draft, which makes sense.

I want to blast him for sticking with Carlyle, but I don't think it was ever a realistic option to change coaches mid-season, especially when Randy had a big chunk of his roster lost to injuries for so long. By the time we got healthy-ish, it was a little too late to pull the plug, and what coaches are out there right now anyhow? That's a summer move.

I do blame him for the defense situation though. There's no getting around that. It never needed to be an issue to begin with, let alone drag out so long.

If the defense was addressed in any way, you don't have near as many negative comments here.

I predict that in 12-18 months we will look back at this time and realize that the biggest mistake made in early 2018 was the Cogliano extension. The rest of the moves (trading Wagner a to be UFA) and adding a couple of rentals (Chimera, Kelly) won't have any long term impact (and probably not much in the short term either).

No. just no. One, you're overthinking the Cogs extension. I understand the hesitation about it, but worst decision? No. It's debatable whether it was even a bad decision. Never mind that you've got a GM going into free agency with no slow, over the hill, physical defenseman on the roster. that's where Murray always f***s up.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Also, remembered a few guys mentioned the paper transactions for getting guys AHL eligible, and while I have no idea either way, my best guess is they did it. Nothing on the AHL transactions page but Kosilla isn't on the Ducks' roster page and wasn't even listed as a healthy scratch against Edmonton, so I think he was sent down then. Guessing that would also include Pettersson and Berra, no idea about Ritchie, Kase and Montour.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Also, remembered a few guys mentioned the paper transactions for getting guys AHL eligible, and while I have no idea either way, my best guess is they did it. Nothing on the AHL transactions page but Kosilla isn't on the Ducks' roster page and wasn't even listed as a healthy scratch against Edmonton, so I think he was sent down then. Guessing that would also include Pettersson and Berra, no idea about Ritchie, Kase and Montour.

Pretty sure all three are waiver eligible due to playing more Then 40 games in the nhl?

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

Chimera:
5th-worst on-ice shot attempt differential;
2nd-highest rate of high-danger scoring chances allowed;
3rd-highest rate of all scoring chances allowed;
7th-highest rate of shot attempts allowed;
2nd-lowest number of goals scored (2)
5th-lowest number of points scored (10)

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Pretty sure all three are waiver eligible due to playing more Then 40 games in the nhl?

Duh, I should've checked to see if they're even eligible. Ritchie has played too many games so he isn't but Kase hasn't and CapFriendly says he's good. They also say Montour is eligible but I'm not totally sure why, guessing it's because of his time in Norfolk but I would've thought that wouldnt count since I think he was on an ATO. I guess it still might, but that's fine IMO, I don't think any of the three should have to go down anyway.

 

[Duck Off]

Couldn't say it yesterday because these servers were ass, but Yzerman really is a wizard. He managed to get McDonagh and not trade any of his best 3 prospects. On top of that, he got Miller as well. Just unreal. Incredibly envious of Tampa for having Yzerman.

 

[Hey234]

My feelings about this deadline mirror some others who have already responded. I am glad Murray didn't overpay for a player, but trading Wagner and signing Kelly seem pointless.

I can understand Murray's hesitation doing too much this deadline as this team isn't a very convincing contender and the cap situation for next season is challenging for the Ducks next season. There are a number of contracts coming off the books, but there are also a number of contracts increasing in cap hit that negates some of the extra space gained. Additionally, there are a few players such as Kase that needs a small raise and a number of other players needing to be resigned. There is also the strong possibility of a cap increase. Assuming this small increase, the players needing to be resigned, and the increases to certain players such as Fowler, the Ducks still do not have a lot of room left for improvement.

Goaltending is set and fixing the defense is pretty straightforward - a partner for Fowler. How they go about doing this I have not idea. However, a partner for Fowler is really all that is needed and everything else slots pretty well. The forwards are, in my opinion the main issue.

To me, next year really depends on Eaves. His cap hit removes some options for the Ducks to improve the defense or the forwards. Now, if he returns to form, then that cap space isn't being wasted and everyone in the lineup slots differently. Additionally, the Ducks have a few decisions to make as to how the forward lines are composed. What is Kesler's role next year? Are they going to keep him a shutdown center or try and make his line more offensive? Do they want Henrique to stay at center or do they find an offensive center and place him on the wing? Where do Silf and Ritchie fit assuming Eaves comes back? What if Eaves doesn't return? Do they look for a center or winger?

There are a lot of options depending on Eaves and where Murray slots players. Compound this with the limited cap and I think it is understandable not wanting to add committed salary to a team that needs all the space it can get.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

In addition to being an f u to the players, I think the Kelly/Chimera signings are also a warning. Murray arguably thinks there's a leadership/locker room problem (rightly IMO), and if he doesn't see a pretty clear turnaround in the way the team approaches the games from a professionalism standpoint, then that will tell him something serious.

What's clear is that Carlyle hasn't motivated these guys this year, he's no better than Boudreau in that respect, much to my disappointment. If we don't make the playoffs and do some damage this season I don't see a valid justification for keeping Carlyle outside of there being no better replacement on the market. Injuries don't work as an excuse, they were well positioned when the team got healthy.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Couldn't say it yesterday because these servers were ass, but Yzerman really is a wizard. He managed to get McDonagh and not trade any of his best 3 prospects. On top of that, he got Miller as well. Just unreal. Incredibly envious of Tampa for having Yzerman.

Yeah, Stevie Y has learned his trade well.

As to Wagner...I read somewhere not too long ago that he and Bob were trying to work out an extension and still hadn't gotten it done. I'm kind wondering if Wags left somewhat the same way Wiz left the first time, in Bob's doghouse over negotiations.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

In addition to being an f u to the players, I think the Kelly/Chimera signings are also a warning. Murray arguably thinks there's a leadership/locker room problem (rightly IMO), and if he doesn't see a pretty clear turnaround in the way the team approaches the games from a professionalism standpoint, then that will tell him something serious.

What's clear is that Carlyle hasn't motivated these guys this year, he's no better than Boudreau in that respect, much to my disappointment. If we don't make the playoffs and do some damage this season I don't see a valid justification for keeping Carlyle outside of there being no better replacement on the market. Injuries don't work as an excuse, they were well positioned when the team got healthy.

They really weren't, though. Sure, it was good when you considered the quality of man games lost, but I get the sense that people around here think the team has been struggling since everyone came back and that's really not the case. Very clear difference between with Getzlaf and without Getzlaf.

I'm also a lot more unsure about the leadership stuff. People seem to think that was the motivating factor and it doesn't seem to be the case, Murray made it seem like more of an afterthought.

 

[AngelDuck]

If getting Chimera and Kelly wasn't for leadership, then those moves are even more puzzling

It's very concerning if we have a GM who thinks those are two players that are going to make on ice contributions

The infatuation with veterans has gotten worse and worse. This team can't skate with Winnipeg and Nashville because of it. Murray is even more to blame for this than RC at this point

I am very ready for Steel, Terry, and a couple other young guys to make the jump soon

 

[Sojourn]

If getting Chimera and Kelly wasn't for leadership, then those moves are even more puzzling

It's very concerning if we have a GM who thinks those are two players that are going to make on ice contributions

The infatuation with veterans has gotten worse and worse. This team can't skate with Winnipeg and Nashville because of it. Murray is even more to blame for this than RC at this point

I am very ready for Steel, Terry, and a couple other young guys to make the jump soon

I don’t even mind the desire to add veterans. In theory, you know what you’re going to get, they can set good examples, and they should be solid additions.

The problem is on that last point. He’s not just signing veterans. He’s signing over the hill veterans; players who aren’t just past their due date, but are starting to sour and smell bad. My feeling is that every trade should be with the goal to make your team better, on and off the ice. Sometimes that takes the form of moving an older player for assets, but it’s still a gain when the bill comes due. You’re adding assets for a player who is no longer part of the plan.

I don’t like the idea of adding a player who just isn’t that good anymore simply for their locker room presence. Bieksa is the worst example of it, but even some of the better ones end up doing very little.