Speculation: Trade Deadline Discussion

[duckpuck]

The biggest mistake we made is to sign the one guy who plays his heart out every night, to a 3 year reasonable deal? Really? No other mistake can top that?

I don't understand the cogs hate at all. I think 18 months from now when we are not even competitive we will be disappointed we didn't commit to trying to win the cup but also appreciative that we didn't burn through our prospect pool or future picks. If we traded for mcdonagh we would have an excellent roster that would have a good shot at winning it all.

I actually have nothing to add to that. The fact this post needed to be made is amazing to me. Some people are way too fickle, and Cogliano has been a heart and soul guy for this team for years now.

I don't hate Cogs and don't deny what he brings. I do hate the signing given the dominos that will fall because of it. The ducks can afford 2 (maybe only 1) of Silf, Henrique and Cogs. Of those three, Cogs is clearly the lowest priority. And its not even close. If signing Cogs means trading Silf, is that smart?

There are big contracts on the books (Perry, Kesler, Getz, Lindholm, Fowler). If the ducks are going to keep their young talent (Silf, Henrique, Kase, Gibson, Ritchie, Montour), the last thing they need is a soon to be 4th liner making $3.25M with a modified no trade contract. Poor planning.

Some of the same people objecting to Murray and RC overvaluing "experienced veterans with intangibles" are defending the Cogliano signing which is exactly that.

 

[AngelDuck]

Silfverberg's performance is not exactly making the Cogliano signing much of a dilemma. Silf only has 4 more points right now, and while I expect him to improve next year, do we really want to pay him 5+ million? That's significantly more than the 3.25 you're paying Cogs.

Henrique we definitely need to re-sign but I doubt Cogs is going to prevent that.
This team also has a bunch of guys that are going to be on ELC's soon and expected to fill holes in the lineup (Steel, Terry, Larsson, Jones, Mahura, Pettersson, etc).

 

[Getzmonster]

Naw, I think Murray is a Tolkien fan: “Not all who wander are lost.”

With these recent additions, perhaps something from Back To The Future is more appropriate. Actually, that would make a funny avy theme.

So are Murray memes going to be our playoff avatars provided we make it?

 

[Trojans86]

fair enough. I haven't really run through all of the math and scenarios. I guess now we have the option to trade Cogs for something rather than letting him walk.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Cogs is a couple years older than Silf and not Swedish. I assume that's where the difference in perception comes from. Their productivity over the course of their Ducks careers is within spitting distance of one another, goal production same, they've each had a couple very nice playoff runs, but only one -- Cogs -- brings the same thing every game. And he's a 4th liner now? The f*** team do I watch?

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Chris Kelly played 833 games?! I always thought of him as a journeyman...

 

[bsu]

So are Murray memes going to be our playoff avatars provided we make it?

Murray and Carlyle...step brothers

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I don't hate Cogs and don't deny what he brings. I do hate the signing given the dominos that will fall because of it. The ducks can afford 2 (maybe only 1) of Silf, Henrique and Cogs. Of those three, Cogs is clearly the lowest priority. And its not even close. If signing Cogs means trading Silf, is that smart?

There are big contracts on the books (Perry, Kesler, Getz, Lindholm, Fowler). If the ducks are going to keep their young talent (Silf, Henrique, Kase, Gibson, Ritchie, Montour), the last thing they need is a soon to be 4th liner making $3.25M with a modified no trade contract. Poor planning.

Some of the same people objecting to Murray and RC overvaluing "experienced veterans with intangibles" are defending the Cogliano signing which is exactly that.

This team is a train wreck gaining speed as it heads for a 90 degree turn. Of all the things wrong with it, Cogs has to be at the bottom of the f*** up list. If we ever get somebody in who can sort this all out, and they decide Cogs needs to go, he is easily moveable with no penalty whatsoever. How he can be the root cause of this mess, is hard for me to fathom. The root cause was when Bob failed to learn the definition of insanity, and rehired RC.

 

[Cogsfordogs7]

Ducks just entered into a sponsorship deal with AARP. Wags was fearless hitting everyone and providing energy. You can make any excuse for BM you want, but we aren't good enough for the play-offs and too good to get any good draft picks next year.

 

[duckpuck]

Cogs is a couple years older than Silf and not Swedish. I assume that's where the difference in perception comes from. Their productivity over the course of their Ducks careers is within spitting distance of one another, goal production same, they've each had a couple very nice playoff runs, but only one -- Cogs -- brings the same thing every game. And he's a 4th liner now? The **** team do I watch?

This team is a train wreck gaining speed as it heads for a 90 degree turn. Of all the things wrong with it, Cogs has to be at the bottom of the **** up list. If we ever get somebody in who can sort this all out, and they decide Cogs needs to go, he is easily moveable with no penalty whatsoever. How he can be the root cause of this mess, is hard for me to fathom. The root cause was when Bob failed to learn the definition of insanity, and rehired RC.

What is with the strawman arguments? I never said he's a 4th liner now (I said "soon to be") and I never said he was the root cause of this mess. I did say that the biggest mistake made in the last 2 months was his extension. Time will tell. But his decline in play combined with the fact that the Kesler/Silf/Cogs line (currently the third line for all intents and purposes) doesn't work with a diminished Kesler strongly points to the fact that Cogs will soon be a 4th liner. And no one would/could claim that Cogs offensive skills EVER made him a top 6 winger.

And at this point in their careers, there is no doubt I'd rather have Silf than Cogs. Silf has struggled this year offensively - I think in large part because of whose been centering him and a loss of confidence. But he's just as good defensively as Cogs, younger, and with more offensive skill.

Like Cogliano, Kevin Bieksa brings great work ethic, toughness and and intangibles. But that doesn't mean I want Bieksa back. And before you say it, yes Cogs is better than Bieksa

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

What is with the strawman arguments? I never said he's a 4th liner now (I said "soon to be") and I never said he was the root cause of this mess. I did say that the biggest mistake made in the last 2 months was his extension. Time will tell. But his decline in play combined with the fact that the Kesler/Silf/Cogs line (currently the third line for all intents and purposes) doesn't work with a diminished Kesler strongly points to the fact that Cogs will soon be a 4th liner. And no one would/could claim that Cogs offensive skills EVER made him a top 6 winger.

And at this point in their careers, there is no doubt I'd rather have Silf than Cogs. Silf has struggled this year offensively - I think in large part because of whose been centering him and a loss of confidence. But he's just as good defensively as Cogs, younger, and with more offensive skill.

Like Cogliano, Kevin Bieksa brings great work ethic, toughness and and intangibles. But that doesn't mean I want Bieksa back. And before you say it, yes Cogs is better than Bieksa

We're trying to tell you that it wasn't a mistake at all, however you try to justify that unsupported assertion.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

...

We're just not on the same wave length if Cogs is your biggest worry (enough so to single him out) on this team.

 

[MMC]

I think we need to trade Silfverberg. He's our only valuable piece that makes sense to move if we're retooling (which is needed). Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler's contracts are too big to have value in a retool like this. We just signed Cogs so I think he stays (would've been fine moving him). Rakell, Henrique, and Kase should all be part of the new young core. All our defensemen except Beauchemin and Bieksa who are UFAs need to stay and will. Gibson stays.

The rest of the season (and possibly playoffs) needs to be about seeing what holes we can plug internally and what holes we'll need to patch through offseason trades or the free agent market. See what Roy, Kossila, Terry (if he comes over), and possibly Jones and Steel can do in top 6 roles. See what Pettersson, Welinski, Larsson, and maybe Megna can do in bottom 4 defense spots. If we can get a first for Silfverberg at the draft, take it. Don't re-sign Vermette, Kelly, or Chimera.

Next season run with:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Henrique-Kase
Terry/Roy-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

or, if Steel is NHL ready, we could possibly try:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Henrique-Steel-Kase
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

for defense:

Lindholm-Montour (hopefully Montour is ready to take top 4 role)
Fowler-Manson
Larsson/Pettersson-Welinski

 

[Cogsfordogs7]

I like guys that give an honest effort every night, no matter their skill level. I love Henrique but if I were him, I wouldn't hang around any longer than I had to. That's why giving up on Wagner is unpopular. Love Kase and the excitement he brings. About half the team gives consistent effort, the other half is hit and miss. We are so slow and predictable out of our defensive zone.
It's maddening watching us lose to non-playoff teams because of a lack of effort after beating a contender a few days earlier.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I think we need to trade Silfverberg. He's our only valuable piece that makes sense to move if we're retooling (which is needed). Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler's contracts are too big to have value in a retool like this. We just signed Cogs so I think he stays (would've been fine moving him). Rakell, Henrique, and Kase should all be part of the new young core. All our defensemen except Beauchemin and Bieksa who are UFAs need to stay and will. Gibson stays.

The rest of the season (and possibly playoffs) needs to be about seeing what holes we can plug internally and what holes we'll need to patch through offseason trades or the free agent market. See what Roy, Kossila, Terry (if he comes over), and possibly Jones and Steel can do in top 6 roles. See what Pettersson, Welinski, Larsson, and maybe Megna can do in bottom 4 defense spots. If we can get a first for Silfverberg at the draft, take it. Don't re-sign Vermette, Kelly, or Chimera.

Next season run with:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Henrique-Kase
Terry/Roy-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

or, if Steel is NHL ready, we could possibly try:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Henrique-Steel-Kase
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

for defense:

Lindholm-Montour (hopefully Montour is ready to take top 4 role)
Fowler-Manson
Larsson/Pettersson-Welinski

None of this will matter if we start the year with the same coaching staff.

 

[pbgoalie]

I predict that in 12-18 months we will look back at this time and realize that the biggest mistake made in early 2018 was the Cogliano extension. The rest of the moves (trading Wagner a to be UFA) and adding a couple of rentals (Chimera, Kelly) won't have any long term impact (and probably not much in the short term either).

I think we're going to look back and see that as a team with the daft record we have, standing pat and not getting picks (Vermette, Wagner, etc) for pretty strong drafts coming up will be a missed opportunity.
This team, with the mistake of Bieksa, the stupidity of our OT "plan", and seeming lack of a consistently playable system is wasting some big years of its core, and looks to need some deeper development of young talent this draft offers.
I've been wrong enough though, soma deep run with Chimera being our star is likely

 

[duckpuck]

We're just not on the same wave length if Cogs is your biggest worry (enough so to single him out) on this team.

Another strawman. I never said he was my biggest worry (Kesler and Perry are bigger issues to name a few). I said his contract was the biggest personnel mistake to this point in 2018, much more worrisome than getting rid of Wagner or adding two old rental players.

I have no problem with people disagreeing, but no one has yet to explain why his extension was a good decision given the ducks other salary cap constraints. You're welcome to explain to me why Cogs is more valuable than Silf or Henrique (or for that matter Gibson, Montour, and Kase). But feel free to make that argument.

 

[duckpuck]

I think we need to trade Silfverberg. He's our only valuable piece that makes sense to move if we're retooling (which is needed). Getzlaf, Perry, and Kesler's contracts are too big to have value in a retool like this. We just signed Cogs so I think he stays (would've been fine moving him). Rakell, Henrique, and Kase should all be part of the new young core. All our defensemen except Beauchemin and Bieksa who are UFAs need to stay and will. Gibson stays.

The rest of the season (and possibly playoffs) needs to be about seeing what holes we can plug internally and what holes we'll need to patch through offseason trades or the free agent market. See what Roy, Kossila, Terry (if he comes over), and possibly Jones and Steel can do in top 6 roles. See what Pettersson, Welinski, Larsson, and maybe Megna can do in bottom 4 defense spots. If we can get a first for Silfverberg at the draft, take it. Don't re-sign Vermette, Kelly, or Chimera.

Next season run with:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Henrique-Kase
Terry/Roy-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

or, if Steel is NHL ready, we could possibly try:

Rakell-Getzlaf-Perry
Henrique-Steel-Kase
Cogliano-Kesler-Terry/Roy
Ritchie-Kossila-Eaves/whoever

for defense:

Lindholm-Montour (hopefully Montour is ready to take top 4 role)
Fowler-Manson
Larsson/Pettersson-Welinski

I agree that Silf could be the best trade piece - and if that was the ducks plan then it might explain Cogs contract. But your lineups above exclude Silf but don't include a replacement piece. If they trade him, I thing it would be for a young center or a top 4 d-man.

 

[MMC]

I agree that Silf could be the best trade piece - and if that was the ducks plan then it might explain Cogs contract. But your lineups above exclude Silf but don't include a replacement piece. If they trade him, I thing it would be for a young center or a top 4 d-man.

You're overestimating Silf's value. Unless you're planning on packaging him with other assets (not interested unless it's the perfect deal), he's not going to return that. I'm hoping for a 1st.

 

[Opak]

We could have easily beaten what Tampa offered for McDonagh and JT Miller. Easily. Our D would have been the best we've had since Pronger/Nieds era and on par with or better than any other team in the league. Our offense would have benefited from having another top nine guy on pace for 50ish points to move up and down the lineup. This was a huge miss for a team that is supposed to be in contention for cups this year and next.

Nothing anyone says will convince me otherwise. Today was a massive disappointment.

We didn't have the spare pieces to make that deal. We don't have an extra 25-year-old roster forward with 40 points in their resume, we don't have a Howden-level C prospect. The ask from us would've been one of Ritchie/Kase, one of Steel/Comtois, one of Larsson/Mahura and two firsts -- basically half of our entire farm. Bob can be criticized for many things, but not for not wanting to give up all that...

 

[Opak]

You're overestimating Silf's value. Unless you're planning on packaging him with other assets (not interested unless it's the perfect deal), he's not going to return that. I'm hoping for a 1st.

It should be a pick + prospect type deal. Quality of the pick would depend on the prospect, and vice versa.

 

[Getzmonster]

Looking over today's results, I'd say that Columbus had the moves that I was expecting from Bob (Cole + Vanek for relatively little).

 

[duckpuck]

You're overestimating Silf's value. Unless you're planning on packaging him with other assets (not interested unless it's the perfect deal), he's not going to return that. I'm hoping for a 1st.

Interesting - looking at today's trades, would Silf have commanded a first round pick? Alone I don't think so but its hard to say. I think all of the players traded for firsts are better than Silf (Kane, Nash, and even Tartar who has term with a good AAV) with the possible exception of Hartman (younger player who will be cost controlled) and Stasny (elite faceoff guy at a premium position).

At the same time, I think most teams would value a decent 1st round pick more than a bottom six center or middle or lower pairing defenseman. Obviously, contracts matter.

 

[bsu]

There is not a doubt in my mind Silf would have got a 1st.

 

[Trojans86]

I'm sorry but a retool that leaves us with steel as our 1c after getzlaf is over the hill ain't even close to getting it done. I'd rather sell and accumulate assets and tank and get great picks than be a middling team that is fighting year in and year out for a playoff spot without any elite talent that can take our team deep into the playoffs. Make a run at the playoffs the next two years and then rebuild around franchise talents.