The Tank Thread - 2022-23 edition (Lottery Drawing 05/08/23 7PM)

[Long Live Lyle]

Looking at the odds more closely now…

The interesting thing about the 2nd-4th odds is there actually isn’t too much difference between them when it comes to landing #1 or a top-two pick. Unfortunately, we already blew our chance at significantly increasing our odds for each of those (and guaranteeing top-3) by not coming in 32nd.

However, where the real difference lies, as you’ll see below, is at the picks below the top-2. And if you consider there to be significant deltas in the 2023 draft from the 3 to 4 spot (with 3 guaranteeing you a top center) and another delta at 4 to 5 (with 4 guaranteeing you a top talent), tonight is very, very important still.

31st:
Top-two odds: 28%
Top-three odds: 60%
Top-four odds: 100%

30th:
Top-two odds: 23%
Top-three odds: 30%
Top-four odds: 71%

29th:
Top-two odds: 19%
Top-three odds: Also 19%
Top-four odds: 35%

Notice how (relatively) little the top-two odds change at each spot, but how significantly the top-three odds change, particularly when moving from 31st to 30th, as well as how significantly the top-four odds change, particularly when moving from 30th to 29th.

tl;dr - Lose tonight. In regulation.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

Wait until you see the sequel

It will likely be worse than Caddyshack 2.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I will own my opinion.. No Cane, no Crosby, no Malkin or Ovechkin, definitely no McDavid or McKinnon. These chance don’t happen very often. I am really upset by this.

I'm too lazy to do the research but I'd love to know if there was another team just as terrible as us during each of those years and has come up dry during those drafts as well. We were pretty terrible the McKinnon year until they decided to play like a cup winner the last 5-6 weeks of the season.

 

[EDM]

Thanks for interesting analysis LLL

 

[Long Live Lyle]

I'm too lazy to do the research but I'd love to know if there was another team just as terrible as us during each of those years and has come up dry during those drafts as well. We were pretty terrible the McKinnon year until they decided to play like a cup winner the last 5-6 weeks of the season.

Not exactly answering your question, but I remember last year Portzline had an article where he had a statistician conduct the chances that a team in the CBJ’s respective draft lottery positions over the 20+ years would never - not even once - receive the #1 pick (we traded up for Nash and “won” the lottery for the #3 spot in the PLD draft, but have never left the draft lottery with the #1 pick) and it was an almost impossible to fathom low likelihood.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

The team is playing chess while everyone else was playing checkers. Get Bedard you start winning and then you get lousy draft picks. Win a couple meaningless games and you more likely get the 4th or 5th pick instead and then you stay awful for another 5+ years and get a whole bunch more lottery picks. Strategery.

 

[BB88]

Looking at the odds more closely now…

The interesting thing about the 2nd-4th odds is there actually isn’t too much difference between them when it comes to landing #1 or a top-two pick. Unfortunately, we already blew our chance at significantly increasing our odds for each of those (and guaranteeing top-3) by not coming in 32nd.

However, where the real difference lies, as you’ll see below, is at the picks below the top-2. And if you consider there to be significant deltas in the 2023 draft from the 3 to 4 spot (with 3 guaranteeing you a top center) and another delta at 4 to 5 (with 4 guaranteeing you a top talent), tonight is very, very important still.

31st:
Top-two odds: 28%
Top-three odds: 60%
Top-four odds: 100%

30th:
Top-two odds: 23%
Top-three odds: 30%
Top-four odds: 71%

29th:
Top-two odds: 19%
Top-three odds: Also 19%
Top-four odds: 35%

Notice how (relatively) little the top-two odds change at each spot, but how significantly the top-three odds change, particularly when moving from 31st to 30th, as well as how significantly the top-four odds change, particularly when moving from 30th to 29th.

tl;dr - Lose tonight. In regulation.

That 29th messess stats a bit, it would lead to believe there’s a 19% of being in the top2 and 19% chance of being in top3.

When going by your model 19% of chance drafting in the top2 and 81% chance of 4th or lower.
Don’t like those odds

The 29th team has a zero chance at picking 3rd

 

[Long Live Lyle]

That 29th messess stats a bit, it would lead to believe there’s a 19% of being in the top2 and 19% chance of being in top3.

When going by your model 19% of chance drafting in the top2 and 81% chance of 4th or lower.
Don’t like those odds

The 29th team has a zero chance at picking 3rd

True, but I showed it that way to show (if the draft itself goes as expected, which of course is rare. No one expected Wright at 4 last year) you have an 81% chance of missing out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson if you finish 29th, and “only” a 40% chance if 31st.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Not exactly answering your question, but I remember last year Portzline had an article where he had a statistician conduct the chances that a team in the CBJ’s respective draft lottery positions over the 20+ years would never - not even once - receive the #1 pick (we traded up for Nash and “won” the lottery for the #3 spot in the PLD draft, but have never left the draft lottery with the #1 pick) and it was an almost impossible to fathom low likelihood.

Thats what is the frustrating part. The amount of times we've been in the draft lottery and have NEVER had any success.

Just look at the luck the Devils have had in recent years.

2017 - moves from 5 to 1 - drafts Nico Hischier
2018 - drafts Ty Smith at 17 (included in trade for John Marino)
2019 - moves from 3 to 1 - drafts Jack Hughes
2020 - drafts Dawson mercer at 18, Shakir Mukhamadullin at 20 (included in Timo Meier trade)
2021 - Luke Hughes at 4
2022 - moves from 5 to 2 - drafts Simon Nemec

In the last 6 years they have moved up in the draft 3 times and 2 of them have changed the franchise completely while they will probably have Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec as full time NHLers next season.

The Devils have great depth and have drafted well around those picks and made great trades but they wouldn't be where they are without Hischier and Jack Hughes.

We NEED some lottery luck to go with what appears to be solid recent drafts on the surface.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

^^ That's partly the reason they added the new rule:

Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning via the Lottery twice in a five year period (beginning with the 2022 Lottery).

Doesn't help us or any prior history of course... And I wonder if it would've even applied in 2022 for New Jersey, if they count the previous five years then they wouldn't have been able to move up but if it's a "running" five year period then that would've been perfectly fine. Ouch.

 

[BB88]

True, but I showed it that way to show (if the draft itself goes as expected, which of course is rare. No one expected Wright at 4 last year) you have an 81% chance of missing out on Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson if you finish 29th, and “only” a 40% chance if 31st.

It’s not a problem, just wanted to point it out because I started to calcute the odds using that model.

The top3 in this draft is basically universally seen in their own tier and don’t hold the concerns Wright did( and are easily better prospects).

The only way the 3rd spot could change is if Anaheim drops to 3rd and takes Michkov, playing the long game.

Columbus really needs that 31st position heading into lottery

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Just for those saying “well their record sucks in the last 10” or whatever

 

[MissADD]

Who has seen the movie Face/Off? I think you know where I am going with this

 

[BluejacketNut]

I was pissed last night, now I’m just depressed

 

[BB88]

Just for those saying “well their record sucks in the last 10” or whatever

Yep.

The’ve been ”destroying” the ot column

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

I imagine there will be some Emil Bemstrom jerseys that will be burned in a number of Central Ohio firepits this weekend.

Meanwhile, they will be bought online and framed by Anaheim fans.

 

[GoJackets1]

Wish we could have foreseen Pyyhtia being so dangerous and Hutch playing at a Sv% like .67 over his average. Everything went wrong last night, and the Pens also gave it to us in OT. f***ing sucks.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I'm not happy about this situation either, but blaming Bemström is stupid.

 

[EDM]

Well maybe next year as a UFA, Benstrum will find some love in Anaheim.

 

[MoeBartoli]

One thing I hate recently is they are going up against some teams with little interest in final week games with our roster filled heavily AHL talent level but those guys’ intensity is playoff level as they are busting their butts to make an impact. These guys aren’t going to dial it back but Lars needs to coach to the bigger picture.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I imagine there will be some Emil Bemstrom jerseys that will be burned in a number of Central Ohio firepits this weekend.

Meanwhile, they will be bought online and framed by Anaheim fans.

I get why people are mad at bemmer but it was a tap in. The whole play is made by Pyyhtia.

 

[Xoggz22]

I'm with all of you that this completely sucks and is a potential unfathomable finish to what has to be one of the most gut punching seasons in this franchises history. It's very raw and clearly we have a lot of emotions flowing. I haven't read the last few pages but glanced and got a pretty good idea of how many of you feel. I don't agree with all of it but certainly understand it and have the same feelings of despair.

I can only hope that they give us one last gift tonight and lose in regulation. Players want to win but here's hoping they can suck enough to lose to an unmotivated Buffalo team tonight. sigh...

 

[MissADD]

I get why people are mad at bemmer but it was a tap in. The whole play is made by Pyyhtia.

He has missed tap ins before tho. He could have missed this one

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

I get why people are mad at bemmer but it was a tap in. The whole play is made by Pyyhtia.

I get it that players like Bemstrom and Pyyhtia are playing for a contract next year and playing time, respectively. The race to the basement is the last thing on their minds.

Edit: Oops - Bemstrom has another year on his deal. I thought this was the final year but it isn't.

 

[NotCommitted]

I really hope this tank job of Ducks will bite them and they'll both lose the lottery and be stuck at the bottom for next 10 years and then we can have another chat how this org should've told the players to lose on purpose.

They have won TWO of their last 10 games, damn these meaningless end of seasons streaks!