The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Harbour Dog]

Meh, we handily won the xGF battle. I'm okay with quality over quantity as long as we aren't getting absolutely buried.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Meh, we handily won the xGF battle. I'm okay with quality over quantity as long as we aren't getting absolutely buried.

Usually they are pretty closely correlated though, but I don't necessarily disagree.

 

[Levitate]

I'd worry more except that's like every year with these Rangers and they still end up being a "good" team. They'll get into the playoffs and lose a series that they probably should win and then we do it again next season whee

 

[Levitate]

Ya know what's fun to think back on? Ducks fans complaining about Manson all year, despite all evidence, and now he's their top pairing dmen and they love him now

They were complaining about him on their board this game and saying he's been playing poorly lately.

Seemed like he won every 1 on 1 battle against a Ranger tonight and played an effective overall game but what do I know

 

[Machinehead]

Usually they are pretty closely correlated though, but I don't necessarily disagree.

Depends on the game.

Tbh, I wasn't particularly disgusted with this game.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Wasn't really talking about game to game, over a whole season, usually good possession teams are good xG teams.

 

[Mac n Gs]

They were complaining about him on their board this game and saying he's been playing poorly lately.

Seemed like he won every 1 on 1 battle against a Ranger tonight and played an effective overall game but what do I know

Wait, really? What’s in the water in Orange County because Manson was a machine last night.

Also, I love how we’re top 5 in xGF and dead last in xGA. “We may win, but I may die” forever.

 

[silverfish]

I'm actually pretty shocked to see how handily we won the xG battle. I thought a lot of the Ducks chances were B+ to A+

Eye test!

 

[Mac n Gs]

I'm actually pretty shocked to see how handily we won the xG battle. I thought a lot of the Ducks chances were B+ to A+

Eye test!

I want Vally’s data so badly. I know we’re apprently the top-team at generating slot-line passes, but how are we at defending them? Is this the crux of AV’s “good looks” mantra? Are we opening Pandora’s box?

 

[silverfish]

I want Vally’s data so badly. I know we’re apprently the top-team at generating slot-line passes, but how are we at defending them? Is this the crux of AV’s “good looks” mantra? Are we opening Pandora’s box?

I think we're seeing exactly what AV hockey is making this team. Over-reliance on goaltending, which is okay when Hank is net and Pavelec is playing like he is. However, you're always playing with fire when you do this.

There's also an over-reliance on "timely" shooting.

Since November (15-5-1), only 7 teams in the league are outshooting and outsaving their expected (Corsica.Hockey). The Rangers are one of them.

Also tweeted a summary of ranks this AM:

(Since 11/1, 5v5 unadjusted)

31st in CF%
21st in xGF%
6th in GF%
1st in xFSh%
23rd in xFSv%
4th in GSAE

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think we're seeing exactly what AV hockey is making this team. Over-reliance on goaltending, which is okay when Hank is net and Pavelec is playing like he is. However, you're always playing with fire when you do this.

There's also an over-reliance on "timely" shooting.

Since November (15-5-1), only 7 teams in the league are outshooting and outsaving their expected (Corsica.Hockey). The Rangers are one of them.

Also tweeted a summary of ranks this AM:

(Since 11/1, 5v5 unadjusted)

31st in CF%
21st in xGF%
6th in GF%
1st in xFSh%
23rd in xFSv%
4th in GSAE

I just saw the tweet. The we may win but I may die hashtag almost made me choke on my coffee. It’s my favorite meme of this season behind consume the pizza.

Did you happen to see what their ranks were in xGF and xGA over that time spn?

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[silverfish]

I just saw the tweet. The we may win but I may die hashtag almost made me choke on my coffee. It’s my favorite meme of this season behind consume the pizza.

Did you happen to see what their ranks were in xGF and xGA over that time spn?

9th in xGF60, 30th in xGA60

 

[Mac n Gs]

9th in xGF60, 30th in xGA60

So an improvement from dead last? Plan the parade!

 

[silverfish]

Miller to SJ for Heed and Meier. Who says no?

Value on paper makes sense to me, but I think SJ says no because they're really going to need Meier's ELC and Heed's cheap deal next season, even with Jumbos $8m AAV coming off the books.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Miller to SJ for Heed and Meier. Who says no?

Rangers. I think we could get more than that for him though, a guy like Miller who is coming off a 56 point season, and looks like he might get there again could probably return a ton. Rangers won't trade him IMO.

 

[silverfish]

Rangers. I think we could get more than that for him though, a guy like Miller who is coming off a 56 point season, and looks like he might get there again could probably return a ton. Rangers won't trade him IMO.

The fact that you think the Rangers could get more than that for him is decidedly why he should be traded.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The fact that you think the Rangers could get more than that for him is decidedly why he should be traded.

Of course. Ondrej Kase+, Alex Tuch+, Heed+Meier, etc, would all be fantastic deals, and give us a ton of cap space to maneuver with. But we both know, the Rangers don't really care about the stuff we talk about, so Miller's heavily declining shot rate, that has been declining ever since he got into the league, as well as his very bad CF and xG numbers, is probably not a factor in their decision making.

 

[silverfish]

Of course. Ondrej Kase+, Alex Tuch+, Heed+Meier, etc, would all be fantastic deals, and give us a ton of cap space to maneuver with. But we both know, the Rangers don't really care about the stuff we talk about, so Miller's heavily declining shot rate, that has been declining ever since he got into the league, as well as his very bad CF and xG numbers, is probably not a factor in their decision making.

Power-kill!

 

[Mac n Gs]

Still kinda mind boggling how he’s still a good possession player although he never shoots. You’d think that type of effect would drive his teammates down, but it doesn’t. He’s the anti-Hayes

 

[SA16]

I want Meier. Free Timo.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Timo I think is gonna fully hit his stride soon and turn into a Niederreiter type of player. Kid is a bull on the puck

 

[DanielBrassard]

Still kinda mind boggling how he’s still a good possession player although he never shoots. You’d think that type of effect would drive his teammates down, but it doesn’t. He’s the anti-Hayes

Who?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Who?

JTM

 

[silverfish]

JTM

I'd call him an `average` shot-attempt player. Not moving the needle on relCF%. Doesn't suppress enough, but tends to outweigh it in generation. His relxGF% numbers are bad.

Corsica | Skater Stats