The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Machinehead]

Wouldn't doubt it, everyone we acquire sees their analytics drop off. Only guy that didn't was Dan Boyle that I can remember.

Also, it's amazing that McDonagh's worst xG season is with Girardi off the team. Unbelievable lol.

I still think Girardi is a remarkably ineffective hockey player, but I do kinda feel bad in retrospect that we gave him more shit than AV.

It's becoming pretty clear which one is Snape and which one is Voldemort.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I still think Girardi is a remarkably ineffective hockey player, but I do kinda feel bad in retrospect that we gave him more **** than AV.

It's becoming pretty clear which one is Snape and which one is Voldemort.

True. I guess we just didn't realize how bad this system is defensively. I'd say it isn't exactly a great way to play offense, but with the amount of goals we score somehow, it would be wrong to deny that it has been very effective. Still think we'd be better off if we actually sustained offensive pressure more, but what can u do?

 

[Machinehead]

True. I guess we just didn't realize how bad this system is defensively. I'd say it isn't exactly a great way to play offense, but with the amount of goals we score somehow, it would be wrong to deny that it has been very effective. Still think we'd be better off if we actually sustained offensive pressure more, but what can u do?

I don't know, I understand the fear of not being able to score, because the Torts teams were meh and not finishing is the only reason the Jagr teams didn't win a Cup. We had a history of being a poor offensive team prior to AV.

At the same time, I'm not convinced this roster can't score in another system. Zuccarello is a legit star. Kreider is elite in multiple aspects of the game. Zibanejad is looking like a legit 1C, and Chytil is on the way. KZB is one of the most effective lines in hockey. We're potentially looking at a third line of Andersson-Chytil/Hayes-Nash in the near future. And as crazy as it might sound, I think Fast could still break out and put up somewhere between Hagelin and Dubinsky numbers.

And the other thing is, as we all know, AV doesn't adapt. It's perfectly fine to do our pond hockey thing in a 0-0 game and then go to work and start cycling when we get the lead. It's possible to go for HDSC on one end and suppress shot attempts at the other end - it's a thing. We were doing this in late 2013-14 and we climbed out of like 11th in the East and went to the SCF. It works. Good offensive teams don't have to play basketball 60 minutes of every game. AV does, even when it's not working.

It's time to let go of the past and give this team a chance to show they can score while also running an NHL defensive scheme.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don’t see any reason that our offensive style has to change regardless of defensive schemes. They move the puck great laterally and can shred teams off the rush. You don’t need this uber-pressure and chasing system to generate the flow that leads to counter-attack hockey. Look at how Boston, Carolina, and Toronto play.

 

[Machinehead]

My target for this team is not the LA Kings, because we wouldn't be able to score being perfect defensively (and honestly, nobody could score in Sutter's system) and it's also not the Pittsburgh Penguins, because we don't have the superstars on offense to get caved in and score 5 goals on 10 shots in the playoffs.

I think a realistic model is the 2014, 2015 Blackhawks. They were middle of the road in possession, but they played a fast game, scored timely goals, and they were able to flip the switch and kill the game when they needed to.

Outside of Kane, they didn't have anything we don't, and our depth is better at forward. Toews from 2015-present isn't better than Zibanejad is now.

I don't think this team could score going full defense nor do I want them to, but right now, we're way too far the other way. I still believe teams in the middle 10 in possession metrics can win championships. Teams in the bottom 10 can't.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, I risk sounding like an AV hater here, but I think we give a little too much credit to this system offensively, and not enough credit to the strides this roster has made offensively. We have a multitude of guys who excel at even strength scoring, and if Shatt and Zib are healthy, our PP is lethal as well.

The kinds of weapons we can put on our 3rd and even 4th line is pretty insane. Look at Michael Grabner. I know he's not beloved in this thread because he isn't exactly a corsi darling, but when it comes to putting the puck in the net, the guy rates similar to Ovechkin, Perry, Pavelski, and Lee at 5v5. He's done it for years. This is a 3rd/4th liner on our team.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I'd be happy playing the way we did in 2013-14. We were still an effective rush team, but our breakouts were more than just flying the zone and picking up pucks in stride, stretch passes, and stretch pass tip-ins. We actually had layers in the neutral zone, better puck support, and actually being able to retrieve loose pucks in the offensive zone. Obviously having a healthy McDonagh, and Stralman on the ice 70% of the time helped with some of the breakouts. I don't want to be a defense first team necessarily, and we weren't in 13-14 and even 14-15, but there's gotta be a better way than this. While our record has been OK since 2015-2016, it's not like we are closing in on the president's trophy.

 

[Machinehead]

I'd be happy playing the way we did in 2013-14. We were still an effective rush team, but our breakouts were more than just flying the zone and picking up pucks in stride, stretch passes, and stretch pass tip-ins. We actually had layers in the neutral zone, better puck support, and actually being able to retrieve loose pucks in the offensive zone. Obviously having a healthy McDonagh, and Stralman on the ice 70% of the time helped with some of the breakouts. I don't want to be a defense first team necessarily, and we weren't in 13-14 and even 14-15, but there's gotta be a better way than this. While our record has been OK since 2015-2016, it's not like we are closing in on the president's trophy.

I don't know if there were still some Torts elements there or if AV just got more extreme, but this team is way harder to watch than it was in 2014-15 and way worse in the standings. The change is palpable, and you could argue the roster is better.

I mean, yeah, 2013-14 had McD or Stralman on 70% of the time but Girardi or Staal was also on 70% of the time.

This is especially true in 2014-15 because we didn't have Stralman. We had Boyle, who at that point in his career, was a worse Shattenkirk, plus more Girardi, plus more Staal. And that team was better defensively than this one.

It's clearly systematic.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I'd be happy playing the way we did in 2013-14. We were still an effective rush team, but our breakouts were more than just flying the zone and picking up pucks in stride, stretch passes, and stretch pass tip-ins. We actually had layers in the neutral zone, better puck support, and actually being able to retrieve loose pucks in the offensive zone. Obviously having a healthy McDonagh, and Stralman on the ice 70% of the time helped with some of the breakouts. I don't want to be a defense first team necessarily, and we weren't in 13-14 and even 14-15, but there's gotta be a better way than this. While our record has been OK since 2015-2016, it's not like we are closing in on the president's trophy.

Actually, I disagree. A lot I remember from that year was us chipping into the neutral zone and just destroying teams in loose puck battles. I don’t remember having as clean of zone entries as we do now. It’s crazy to think, but I think this team is actually better going from our end to the offensive zone than that team. Where we f***ing suck is on the backcheck and defending teams in the d-zone.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Actually, I disagree. A lot I remember from that year was us chipping into the neutral zone and just destroying teams in loose puck battles. I don’t remember having as clean of zone entries as we do now. It’s crazy to think, but I think this team is actually better going from our end to the offensive zone than that team. Where we ****ing suck is on the backcheck and defending teams in the d-zone.

I don't know man, I have gone back and watched a bunch of games from that season, trying to see if there have been any noticeable differences. It seemed to me that we were much better at winning puck battles, and then transitioning out of the zone with quick tape-to-tape passes. Of course the stretch pass was still there, but it seemed to me that there was more horizontal movement. That's just the way I saw it, but I could be totally wrong. We were also much better at puck retrievals, Glen Sathers Cigar made a great post about that last night. But like I said, you could be right.

 

[DanielBrassard]

 

[Machinehead]

This plays in my head when I read a really long Tierney post

 

[silverfish]

LA Game

 

[silverfish]

Wins are great but this team is playing with a lot of fire

 

[Machinehead]

Did you guys know Shattenkirk's relative xGA is actually good? If anything is offensive generation has been disappointing, but who cares about generation if you produce?

 

[silverfish]

JT Miller is in serious "GMs might trade this guy because he's not shooting the way he used to" territory



IMO, the difference with JT (aside from my biased disdain that has no explanation), is that I don't think this shooting demise is a one-off. I think this is it. Maybe not this extreme, but look at how he he used to overshoot his expected? His shot is not that good. It's not. If he was at least at the top of the team in relSA%, you can turn a blind eye to some of this stuff.

Are you willing to bet 5 years and $5,5m AAV on that? I'm not.

I put up a blog on this today. I'm ready to be roasted. Let's do this.

 

[DanielBrassard]

JT Miller is in serious "GMs might trade this guy because he's not shooting the way he used to" territory



IMO, the difference with JT (aside from my biased disdain that has no explanation), is that I don't think this shooting demise is a one-off. I think this is it. Maybe not this extreme, but look at how he he used to overshoot his expected? His shot is not that good. It's not. If he was at least at the top of the team in relSA%, you can turn a blind eye to some of this stuff.

Are you willing to bet 5 years and $5,5m AAV on that? I'm not.

I put up a blog on this today. I'm ready to be roasted. Let's do this.

I have been pushing a Miller trade for weeks. We could probably get a great return for him, and open up cap space for a much better player.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Great article silver btw.

 

[silverfish]

I have been pushing a Miller trade for weeks. We could probably get a great return for him, and open up cap space for a much better player.

There is, and has been for a while, an opportunity to get McDonagh the partner he needs by trading JTM. Harder to swallow now that we don't have Stepan, but it's still there. I'm petrified of the Rangers loading up a 5 year, 27.5m, trade protection deal, with JT. Petrified.

Great article silver btw.

Thanks!

 

[DanielBrassard]

I would love to see a Rangers offseason look something like:

At deadline: Nash for 1st, Grabner for 1st or 2nd+3rd, Holden for 3rd

offseason:

Miller to VGK for Alex Tuch+1st/2nd
Smith/Staal for a pick
Trade 1st+ for Tanev
Sign Marchessault and good 3rd line winger like Pouliot
Hope Chytil/Andersson are NHL ready.
Vesey for a pick

KZB
Marchessault-Chytil-Zucc
Pouliot-Hayes-Fast
Andersson-Nieves-Lettieri

McDonagh-Tanev
Skjei-Shattenkirk
Staal/Smith-DeAngelo/Pionk
Kampfer

Draft picks: 2-3 1sts, 2-3 2nds, 2-3 3rds, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
Cap room: Alot.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Ya know what's fun to think back on? Ducks fans complaining about Manson all year, despite all evidence, and now he's their top pairing dmen and they love him now

 

[silverfish]

Ya know what's fun to think back on? Ducks fans complaining about Manson all year, despite all evidence, and now he's their top pairing dmen and they love him now

He's a #4. Fowler is better.

 

[Mac n Gs]

He's a #4. Fowler is better.

Miller and Manson going at it tonight must’ve killed you inside

 

[silverfish]

Miller and Manson going at it tonight must’ve killed you inside

Felt very fitting

 

[DanielBrassard]

Will we ever win the shot attempt battle ever again LOL