The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Mac n Gs]

I'd call him an `average` shot-attempt player. Not moving the needle on relCF%. Doesn't suppress enough, but tends to outweigh it in generation. His relxGF% numbers are bad.

Corsica | Skater Stats

I meant on this team. His xGF% trends are surprising because he and Zucc together really pass the eye test. C’est la vie

 

[TheTakedown]

I think we're seeing exactly what AV hockey is making this team. Over-reliance on goaltending, which is okay when Hank is net and Pavelec is playing like he is. However, you're always playing with fire when you do this.

There's also an over-reliance on "timely" shooting.

Since November (15-5-1), only 7 teams in the league are outshooting and outsaving their expected (Corsica.Hockey). The Rangers are one of them.

Also tweeted a summary of ranks this AM:

(Since 11/1, 5v5 unadjusted)

31st in CF%
21st in xGF%
6th in GF%
1st in xFSh%
23rd in xFSv%
4th in GSAE

Like you said, playing with fire... you cannot win anything in this league when you're LAST in CF%... I'm not even asking for a top 5 corsi team, but you cannot be bottom 3, let alone the worst... This team lives and dies by goaltending, furthering this point that AV's system requires the goalie to make up for the defensive deficiencies...

Idk, I love the offense, but I think firing this coach this coming offseason for a coach who can actually coach defense would be ideal--especially with AV's offensive footprint. It would be like the opposite of Torts-to-AV, which I think would still function

 

[Harbour Dog]

I think we're seeing exactly what AV hockey is making this team. Over-reliance on goaltending, which is okay when Hank is net and Pavelec is playing like he is. However, you're always playing with fire when you do this.

There's also an over-reliance on "timely" shooting.

Since November (15-5-1), only 7 teams in the league are outshooting and outsaving their expected (Corsica.Hockey). The Rangers are one of them.

Also tweeted a summary of ranks this AM:

(Since 11/1, 5v5 unadjusted)

31st in CF%
21st in xGF%
6th in GF%
1st in xFSh%
23rd in xFSv%
4th in GSAE

I'm not sure if I wouldn't consider our actual xGF to be a bit higher than Manny's formula predicts. I was wading through some of it last night, and over the past two seasons, we've outperformed our xGF by something like 24 goals. That's quite a bit; it's not impossible that our guys are just better at finishing, or that the chances they create are more dangerous for reasons that aren't yet quantified. I would put money on Zucc's passes being some of the most deceptive in the league for instance. Just supposition on my part of course. I'm a stats guy, but I haven't really delved into hockey analytics at all.

 

[DanielBrassard]

SF, who would u target in a Miller trade at RD? I doubt Carolina trades Pesce or Anaheim trades Manson. I'd like Trouba, but not sure Winnipeg needs JT.

 

[silverfish]

I'm not sure if I wouldn't consider our actual xGF to be a bit higher than Manny's formula predicts. I was wading through some of it last night, and over the past two seasons, we've outperformed our xGF by something like 24 goals. That's quite a bit; it's not impossible that our guys are just better at finishing, or that the chances they create are more dangerous for reasons that aren't yet quantified. I would put money on Zucc's passes being some of the most deceptive in the league for instance. Just supposition on my part of course. I'm a stats guy, but I haven't really delved into hockey analytics at all.

Right. Data out is only as good as the data in. It's remarkable that Manny has built his xG to what it is using only the NHL pbp data.

SF, who would u target in a Miller trade at RD? I doubt Carolina trades Pesce or Anaheim trades Manson. I'd like Trouba, but not sure Winnipeg needs JT.

Tim Heed is my new go-to. Right-handed. Suppresses shots. Drives offense. Puts up points. Dude is basically ADA's ceiling minus the, well, you know. Problem is, AV would get his hands on Heed and bury him.

Basically, go to Corsica, filter for d-men, last two years, and sort by relCA60. I want a shot suppressor next to McDonagh more than anything else on this team right now.

(Tim Heed with a major + like Meier, of course, not straight up)

 

[DanielBrassard]

Right. Data out is only as good as the data in. It's remarkable that Manny has built his xG to what it is using only the NHL pbp data.



Tim Heed is my new go-to. Right-handed. Suppresses shots. Drives offense. Puts up points. Dude is basically ADA's ceiling minus the, well, you know. Problem is, AV would get his hands on Heed and bury him.

Basically, go to Corsica, filter for d-men, last two years, and sort by relCA60. I want a shot suppressor next to McDonagh more than anything else on this team right now.

(Tim Heed with a major + like Meier, of course, not straight up)

I got u lol. Colin Miller is my new favorite, sick numbers and passes the eye test for me for sure. Absolutely flies, has a bomb of a shot, I really wish we went after him before VGK got their hands on him lol.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just go back to last year when we talked about Colin Miller or Connor Carrick. Both are good targets, should be reliable two-way 2nd pairing dmen that can play a tougher role if necessary. If you want the next Manson/Parayko, get Columbus to give you Andrew Peeke.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I swear, I must have some sort of inception effect on @DanielBrassard

I wouldn’t shut up about Colin Miller last year

 

[DanielBrassard]

Just go back to last year when we talked about Colin Miller or Connor Carrick. Both are good targets, should be reliable two-way 2nd pairing dmen that can play a tougher role if necessary. If you want the next Manson/Parayko, get Columbus to give you Andrew Peeke.

I sincerely doubt Miller is available, he's been awesome.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I swear, I must have some sort of inception effect on @DanielBrassard

I wouldn’t shut up about Colin Miller last year

Haha, u certainly made him well-known around here. But just watching him play is alot of fun. He's part of what makes VGK fun to watch.

 

[silverfish]

C. Miller should've been targeted prior to the expansion draft, along with a few other players who were available. Too late now.

The entirety of the way the expansion draft was handled really grinds the shit outta my gears. No GM took advantage of it. Not even GMGM. This run LVGK is absurdly unearned.

 

[Mac n Gs]

C. Miller should've been targeted prior to the expansion draft, along with a few other players who were available. Too late now.

The entirety of the way the expansion draft was handled really grinds the **** outta my gears. No GM took advantage of it. Not even GMGM. This run LVGK is absurdly unearned.

Dale Tallon handed him Reilly Smith and JAM. Boston opted for Kevan Miller over Colin. None of it made any sense

 

[silverfish]

Just got taken to school on Twitter in the best way. Peep this thread. So awesome...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Just got taken to school on Twitter in the best way. Peep this thread. So awesome...

It's that simple, huh?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Thank you to our new Bayesian overlord. That was awesome silverfish, thanks for posting

 

[Machinehead]

I Paul Carey

 

[silverfish]

It's that simple, huh?

Elaborate?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Y’all are slacking. How did no one catch this AV quote today:

“On the matchups for McDonagh impacting his shot attempt numbers, "I'm not a big fan of the shot attempts, I don't want to say preacher or believer, we have one of the most sophisticated stat package here that we use, that ha evolved through the years that permits us not only to break down important things we believe in but all the games being played that night. As soon as the game is over I can look at another teams game, prepare my next game and I have the breakdown of things that I feel are important. It's out there with every game, the shot attempts, the Corsi, whatever you want to call it. I've got other things that I rely on and I don't put a lot of skate into that."

 

[DanielBrassard]

Y’all are slacking. How did no one catch this AV quote today:

“On the matchups for McDonagh impacting his shot attempt numbers, "I'm not a big fan of the shot attempts, I don't want to say preacher or believer, we have one of the most sophisticated stat package here that we use, that ha evolved through the years that permits us not only to break down important things we believe in but all the games being played that night. As soon as the game is over I can look at another teams game, prepare my next game and I have the breakdown of things that I feel are important. It's out there with every game, the shot attempts, the Corsi, whatever you want to call it. I've got other things that I rely on and I don't put a lot of skate into that."

What a shocking revelation.

 

[silverfish]

Y’all are slacking. How did no one catch this AV quote today:

“On the matchups for McDonagh impacting his shot attempt numbers, "I'm not a big fan of the shot attempts, I don't want to say preacher or believer, we have one of the most sophisticated stat package here that we use, that ha evolved through the years that permits us not only to break down important things we believe in but all the games being played that night. As soon as the game is over I can look at another teams game, prepare my next game and I have the breakdown of things that I feel are important. It's out there with every game, the shot attempts, the Corsi, whatever you want to call it. I've got other things that I rely on and I don't put a lot of skate into that."

SOURCE!?!?

I mean, when your team is 29th in the league in CA60, you can't really go on record saying that you look at shot attempts.

Ryan McDonagh returning to form for Rangers

"As soon as the game is over I can look at another teams game, prepare my next game..."

Hey, I can do that.

Also: What is AV's preparation? Okay boys, let's get some rush shots! Wow. Tough.

Clown.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Got the quote from here:



Now I’m not knocking the “stat package,” but I’d really f***ing love to know the contents. Has to be a mix of Sportlogiq data and privately tracked stuff

 

[Irishguy42]

I thought AV was always more of a "chances" guy and not "attempts"

 

[silverfish]

Got the quote from here:



Now I’m not knocking the “stat package,” but I’d really ****ing love to know the contents. Has to be a mix of Sportlogiq data and privately tracked stuff

I don't know if you've heard, but it's very sophisticated.

 

[Irishguy42]

I feel like a lot of teams have their own "stats package" and use those over the public stats.

Wouldn't really put too much into this...

 

[silverfish]

I feel like a lot of teams have their own "stats package"

Wouldn't really put too much into this...

But are they SOPHISTICATED?

There was too much backlash last time I changed my username but I'm dying to change it to SOPHISTICATED.