The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[silverfish]

True, but I also think there are clear signs of improvement even in the man-to-man scheme to make it work defensively. A lot of the time we see a player either just quit on the play, or make a weak attempt to defend, and I begin to wonder "what if we just had someone who was a bit more competent?"

If the personnel is good, then I feel like the defensive scheme becomes less dangerous than previously thought. I think one of the byproducts of his system is some increased confusion during the heat of the moment, but not complete stupidity. I don't buy it.

I also wonder if, in regards to the "quantity more reproducible than quality" argument, if that really only holds well in smaller sample sizes. With an offensive system like AVs, assuming all decent/good players, you're producing a large quantity of quality chances. So it would seem repeatable, no? The ability to to create a large quantity of quality chances is repeatable, and I think AVs system does just that.

Is that making sense?

re: the bolded - I always have a hard time believing these guys quit on plays or make weak attempts. It can be just a bad play without having to characterize it as quitting, right? Everyone's not on all the time.

And you're right, if we had 6 McDonaghs, then no one would really bat an eye at AV hockey because they'd make it look good. Problem is, you'll never ice a team with 6 McDonaghs. This goes back to jamming square pegs into round holes. Coaches, not just AV, but lots of coaches, have this tendency to mold the players to the system rather than the system to the players. NHL coaching is inherently broken in this fact. You play your game, and hope it beats your opponents game that night.

Not entirely certain I follow your point, but my reading comprehension is notoriously terrible. I'm not sure if I wanted long-term success if I'd play to the metric that has short-term repeatability versus the metric with long-term repeatability.

It's been forever since I've run the #s, so I don't want to say anything for certain.

Does anyone know the current mash up between team points and how it relates individually to CF%, xGF%, xFSh%? What about year over year for players? Can we calculate this year over year for teams with all the turnover? Might have to isolate only teams that had the same coach year over year.

Who wants to do it?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Slowly settling in to some AV hockey here... Since 11/1, the Rangers are 11-3. They rank:

(all situations adjusted):
22nd in CF%,
12th in xGF%,
6th in GF%,
4th in xFSh%,
23rd in xFSv%,
8th in GSAE.

They're playing the 'quality over quantity' game, and they're playing it hard. The juxtaposition between their rank in expected shooting and expected save percentage is your AV hockey microcosm. Rush shots. Sacrifice defense for rush opportunities. Goalies, mostly Hank in this span, making the saves when they're needed to with the league's 8th best goals saved above expected (xGA - GA).

There are 19 spots between their x shooting and x save. That difference ranks as the 5th highest differential between those two metrics in the league.

We play like it’s real life NHL 18.

 

[silverfish]

omfg



SAVAGE

 

[silverfish]

Is nobody else concerned about the extreme fallout of JT Miller's goal scoring and that the only forwards on the team who shoot less than he does 5v5 are 28, 51, and 24? Is that just me?

It me, silverfish, JT Miller hater extraordinaire.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Is nobody else concerned about the extreme fallout of JT Miller's goal scoring and that the only forwards on the team who shoot less than he does 5v5 are 28, 51, and 24? Is that just me?

It me, silverfish, JT Miller hater extraordinaire.

Nope, we’re in the same exact boat. Grabner shouldn’t be the de facto shooter on that line 5v5 and he needs to be the shooting option from the right side on the second powerplay unit

 

[silverfish]

Nope, we’re in the same exact boat. Grabner shouldn’t be the de facto shooter on that line 5v5 and he needs to be the shooting option from the right side on the second powerplay unit

I'd actually argue that Miller is having a pretty bad year, being propped up by an insane amount of A2s (t-13th in the lg all-situations A2s) right now.

- relCF%
- relxGF%
10th on the team in all situations P1/60
(Corsica.Hockey)
Doesn't shoot enough
Doesn't score goals

Getting lots of love from the broadcast and from the fans. Plays hard. People love that.

Uh-oh, I'm falling back into the trade JT Miller mindset. I bet we could get a good center for him... noooooooooooo. Miller to CGY for Backlund and Jagr

JK that's terrible we get no futures.

 

[mrmovies779]

Miller's been ok,his problem is he's too unselfish a lot of times.I wish he would shoot it more.With his shot,he should be potting 25+ goals a year.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Is nobody else concerned about the extreme fallout of JT Miller's goal scoring and that the only forwards on the team who shoot less than he does 5v5 are 28, 51, and 24? Is that just me?

It me, silverfish, JT Miller hater extraordinaire.

I've been harping on it all season.

 

[silverfish]

I've been harping on it all season.

I think it's concerning. But more concerning is that no one seems to care, and not only not care, but he's getting a tonnnnnn of praise.

I don't know.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I think it's concerning. But more concerning is that no one seems to care, and not only not care, but he's getting a tonnnnnn of praise.

I don't know.

I would not want to be the guy giving him a 5/5.5+M after this season, that's for damn sure. Like I said in the Roster thread, I would look to trade him for a shoot first type player who is cheaper, even if they don't score as many points. His analytics have been bad for a while now, he doesn't shoot the puck enough, and I think we could be better off trading him.

 

[mrmovies779]

I would not want to be the guy giving him a 5/5.5+M after this season, that's for damn sure. Like I said in the Roster thread, I would look to trade him for a shoot first type player who is cheaper, even if they don't score as many points. His analytics have been bad for a while now, he doesn't shoot the puck enough, and I think we could be better off trading him.

The same analytics that said Brandon Pirri was a quality NHL player?No thanks.I would prefer keeping Miller.

 

[silverfish]

The same analytics that said Brandon Pirri was a quality NHL player?No thanks.I would prefer keeping Miller.

Much like Miller, Pirri had a down year with us because he didn't shoot the puck enough. Also, he spent way, way too much time with Vesey, and they were dreadful together.

I for one am surprised that Pirri is not in the NHL this year, but he is once again showing that he has no business being in the AHL.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The thing with Miller is it’s tough to judge him based on stats based on how he’s been dispersed throughout the lineup. I’m giving him a grace period to adjust at C, but he’s been failing my eye test overall lately. He’s made some good plays and has had good shifts, but as of right now, the negatives outweigh the positives. It’s backwards logic, but I want to keep him at C for a while longer to see if he can turn it around like he did in Hartford. Otherwise, put him back at RW

 

[Mac n Gs]

Is it me or has there been a weird discrepancy between some teams CF% and xGF%? Like what the hell is Boudreau doing in Minnesota? Secondly, still can’t figure out if Brodin is really good or not. Gut and eyes tells me yes, stats say otherwise. Oh well

 

[Mac n Gs]

Dan Rosen also says they’re trying to develop a new tracking technology that doesn’t require a chip. We’ll see what happens

 

[Leonardo87]

Need help with this chart. Everyone knows I am the biggest Callahan supporter on here, and trying to prove that he has been playing great but little to show for it this season in points. This was last nights game...

 

[silverfish]

^ Can you repost? Image not working for me.



Caps ****ing dominated after we tied the game. What the hell happened there.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

As soon as the game is tied we shit our pants.

Yawningly predictable.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I wish we had someone who tracked zone exits and entries. I know Corey Szjnader does Ranger games but he does so many others too. I would but I can't watch games from earlier in the season. I just hate how the system seemingly neglects such an important part of the game. Could be wrong and maybe the Rangers are actually good, who knows.

 

[Leonardo87]

^ Can you repost? Image not working for me.
.

That’s weird, here is the link...

COL at T.B

Sorry to throw TB stuff in here but was just curious.

 

[silverfish]

That’s weird, here is the link...

COL at T.B

Sorry to throw TB stuff in here but was just curious.

Looks like Cally had a good game, in terms of shot attempts. Looks like he's also having a good enough year for relCF% and relxGF%, but is getting torched by actual goals. Could just be some bad luck. Unfortunately, for his (lack of) offense, well, I don't think it's terribly surprising. 6p in 27gp is surely lower than expected, but Callahan's offensive game, aside from a couple of seasons, was never really that great. Two more years of that contract won't be easy to swallow, but his NMC moves to a modified NTC, so who knows, maybe there's a GM in the league "dumb" enough to take that on.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Why does Corsica have GF and GA stats that are so off? Are they not updated (but GP is updated so that's weird) or is GF and GA not actual goals for and against on that site?

 

[silverfish]

Why does Corsica have GF and GA stats that are so off? Are they not updated (but GP is updated so that's weird) or is GF and GA not actual goals for and against on that site?

What are you comparing them to?

 

[Leonardo87]

Looks like Cally had a good game, in terms of shot attempts. Looks like he's also having a good enough year for relCF% and relxGF%, but is getting torched by actual goals. Could just be some bad luck. Unfortunately, for his (lack of) offense, well, I don't think it's terribly surprising. 6p in 27gp is surely lower than expected, but Callahan's offensive game, aside from a couple of seasons, was never really that great. Two more years of that contract won't be easy to swallow, but his NMC moves to a modified NTC, so who knows, maybe there's a GM in the league "dumb" enough to take that on.

Yeah he has been very unlucky and with no PP time he has not put up the points. But has been a threat on the ice most of his shifts just little to show for it.

As per his contract. If Tampa retained salary and a team got him for like a 3 million cap hit, then it would be a decent contract for new said team. Also remember he is coming off two hip surgeries and has looked really good out there. Which I think he can play like this for the remainder of that contract. I wish Callahan was still on the Rangers but at a much lower cap hit of course lol.

But thanks for looking at those numbers

 

[SnowblindNYR]

What are you comparing them to?

What's on NHL.com. I mean they're not close, they have the Rangers at 50 something goals scored and they're at 92.