The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

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Hunter Gathers

The Crown
Feb 27, 2002
107,091
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Jon and I were murdering each other back then. Ultimately, he's right. They won the gold. No way to know if they still win it with ADB on the team.

Feel bad that @Hunter Gathers and I always end up battling because he's a poster I respect a ton and always make sure to read his posts when I see them. I'm giving him a lot of grief about Eli in the football thread right now :)

It's because we are both sensible people who put a lot of thought and effort into what we say. That's why I have no problem going hard with you because I know you're not a moron.
 

Hunter Gathers

The Crown
Feb 27, 2002
107,091
12,573
parts unknown
To be fair, Greenway and Thompson both were good, but Debrincat should’ve been on the roster too. I remember your back and forth with Jon on the topic. I think I even argued with you too :D

At the end of the day, it's a team tournament. Greenway was so God damn good in that tournament and brought something no one else did. I'll take Cat over him as a prospect, though. Just not as a fit on that team.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,205
117,468
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What Steve Santini is doing this year is truly next-level.

Even Girardi is cringing at Santini's metrics. Tanner Glass offered him hockey lessons.
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
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Finally listening to the Custance/Chayka podcast. Gonna take some running notes...

1. Trading for Stepan and Hjarl wasn't necessarily to put he Yotes over the hump, it was to help accomplish that, but also to make sure he could slot his younger guys into the lineup more properly. Give guys like Keller and Dvorak some shelter.

2. Says the biggest asset they lost is the 7OA. Not DeAngelo. Didn't really care because they had another 1st rounder to play with.

3. They're still in the early stages of what they're trying to accomplish, but not like he has some set 'ten-year plan'

4. Looking for a long run with a good group of players to build their fanbase

5. One goal games are "proven to be random luck"

6. Doesn't necessarily believe "relying on your gut" is a bad thing. Your gut is never totally subjective. It comes from your research and your analysis.

7. "The subjective is another data point that goes into the decision making process"

8. Cites marketing firms as good example of incomplete data sets that decisions need to be made off of. Boy, does that hit me right in the feels. Maybe I'll send him my resume :P

9. Can't make the tough decision if you're too in tune with the 'human element'

10. Doug Wilson is known as the first guy to call a new GM. Fills you with compliments, and then tries to see what you'll give him.

11. It's a "zero sum game".

12. Changes don't happen instantly. Lag-effect. When you change the scouts or the pro-staff/training staff... It's not going to happen right away.

13. "I'll sit down and talk with pretty much anyone" Okay, he's getting my resume :)

14. The "private stuff" doesn't make the "public stuff" any worse. Looking for marginal improvements to stay ahead of the curve. Going to collect as much info as possible to stay ahead of things.

15. Not necessarily looking for the next big thing, but the next "any" thing that will become useful. Trying to quantify development, and how do we draft and develop players effectively. Create processes to quantify what drives a players game, what makes them unique, and measure performance improvement.

16. Trying to project players but not ignoring the human-element of the players. Psychological anecdotes are helpful.

17. Says the word 'random' again when discussing the draft, but with that, you can't spend enough money on the draft as it's a team's 'highest ROI'.

18. "7th overall is tough to get an impact player"

19. "If we're reaching, it's a terrible position".

20. They had discussions about Chychrun at 7, but knew they could get him later. Tough to get a top-scorer later than 7, and Keller was that guy, so it happened.

Points 18-20 are really poignant all things considered.

21. Around picks 11 and 12 he started making calls so they could jump up for Chyc.

22. Has the draft chart for each pick's value, but it's obviously not the only thing he uses (duh)

23. Currently reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. This has been sitting in my Amazon cart since I read The Undoing Project.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,594
12,928
Nah, herp derp corsi wunderkid hasn’t completely revived a dumpster fire organization. Just reads off an excel sheet.

Still has some work to do, but he’s laid some good ground work so far
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,973
20,961
PA from SI
Nick Holden has been our best CF and xG defenseman this season. I know he has made some mistakes, but I think he deserves some more praise. He's also doing this while playing on his weak side. Well done from him.
 

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,777
21,795
Phoenix
Finally listening to the Custance/Chayka podcast. Gonna take some running notes...

1. Trading for Stepan and Hjarl wasn't necessarily to put he Yotes over the hump, it was to help accomplish that, but also to make sure he could slot his younger guys into the lineup more properly. Give guys like Keller and Dvorak some shelter.

Nice summary, I'm gonna quote it on the Yotes board :P

I haven't listened to it so I don't know the context but I've always had a minor bone to pick with the uses of "luck" and "random" in sports context generally, maybe you pointed them out for the same reason they grind on me a bit. I prefer to think of it as variance when looking at a high level like "oh we won 15 one goal games this season" but it easily could have gone the other way so it's obviously important to consider that. But calling it luck or random I've always felt diminishes the actual effort on ice it took to get (or lose) those games. Maybe some see this as a distinction without a difference but it has always irritated me a tad.
 
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silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
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Wrote a thing today for the first time in four months. Up on the blog. Features viz like this, which is a density plot for EV TOI for each game this season... Think of a density plot like a smoothed histogram...



Nice summary, I'm gonna quote it on the Yotes board :P

I haven't listened to it so I don't know the context but I've always had a minor bone to pick with the uses of "luck" and "random" in sports context generally, maybe you pointed them out for the same reason they grind on me a bit. I prefer to think of it as variance when looking at a high level like "oh we won 15 one goal games this season" but it easily could have gone the other way so it's obviously important to consider that. But calling it luck or random I've always felt diminishes the actual effort on ice it took to get (or lose) those games. Maybe some see this as a distinction without a difference but it has always irritated me a tad.
Give it a listen, it was very interesting! I explicitly pointed those out because I tend to agree with you, I think, and I was surprised that Chayka would refer to multiple items as random or luck.
 
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Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
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NYC
Nick Holden has been our best CF and xG defenseman this season. I know he has made some mistakes, but I think he deserves some more praise. He's also doing this while playing on his weak side. Well done from him.

Yeah but he made a turnover on the winning goal the other day, so...
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
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I see slightly dif #s on Corsica. He leads F in 5v5 ice time, but has a few more GP than the guys trailing him. 48.57 GF%, not > 50%, but a miraculous +12.67% relative (+3.23 relCF%).

We miss this guy.
 

Ail

Based and Rangerspilled.
Nov 13, 2009
29,272
5,504
Boomerville


I see slightly dif #s on Corsica. He leads F in 5v5 ice time, but has a few more GP than the guys trailing him. 48.57 GF%, not > 50%, but a miraculous +12.67% relative (+3.23 relCF%).

We miss this guy.


No he is lazy and sucks. Good riddance, also bald.
 
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silverfish

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Did not realize Kampfer was getting as lit up as he was. CA60 of 70.09 (Corsica.Hockey) +14.46 relCA60 jeeeeeeeeeeez.

Glad we've gone back to Smith.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
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Was watching highlights of the 2017 WCF and SCF today and it's literally beyond words how bad Pekka Rinne was.
 

silverfish

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Didn't realize that either. He was bad in the AHL, not sure why he would be OK in the NHL.
He's the kind of guy that coaches "trust", I guess?

Goes back to the "known" vs the "unknown". The guy you know what you're getting vs the guy you're not sure about. Even if you know you're gonna get mostly crap.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
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He's the kind of guy that coaches "trust", I guess?

Goes back to the "known" vs the "unknown". The guy you know what you're getting vs the guy you're not sure about. Even if you know you're gonna get mostly crap.
I’d almost bet that all 3 of Hartford’s RHD would be better NHL players than Kampfer right now
 

silverfish

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Looks like NHL.com is doing this super cool thing where it's not updating the live games, so, no charts until that happens.

Patience is a virtue...



The amount of 5v5 TOI Nash gets is stupid. Take him off the PK so he can play more where he's actually useful.
 
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silverfish

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Slowly settling in to some AV hockey here... Since 11/1, the Rangers are 11-3. They rank:

(all situations adjusted):
22nd in CF%,
12th in xGF%,
6th in GF%,
4th in xFSh%,
23rd in xFSv%,
8th in GSAE.

They're playing the 'quality over quantity' game, and they're playing it hard. The juxtaposition between their rank in expected shooting and expected save percentage is your AV hockey microcosm. Rush shots. Sacrifice defense for rush opportunities. Goalies, mostly Hank in this span, making the saves when they're needed to with the league's 8th best goals saved above expected (xGA - GA).

There are 19 spots between their x shooting and x save. That difference ranks as the 5th highest differential between those two metrics in the league.
 

Irishguy42

Mr. Preachy
Sep 11, 2015
26,874
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NJ
Quality over quantity isn't a bad way to play the game. If the Rangers would somehow cut out the stupidity in their own end, or even reduce it, it's a completely sustainable way to play hockey.
 

silverfish

got perma'd
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Quality over quantity isn't a bad way to play the game. If the Rangers would somehow cut out the stupidity in their own end, or even reduce it, it's a completely sustainable way to play hockey.
The problem is, as far as I understand it, that quantity is more reproducible than quality. Quality lives fast and dies young. Quantity dies an old person peacefully in their sleep at the ripe age of 95.

Don't get me wrong, though, you absolutely need both.

I also think the stupidity in their own end is a byproduct of AV hockey. Maybe not to the degree we see it, but this man-to-man scheme that we see every night is necessary for the offense that AV wants to play. They go hand-in-hand in AV's world.
 

Irishguy42

Mr. Preachy
Sep 11, 2015
26,874
19,236
NJ
The problem is, as far as I understand it, that quantity is more reproducible than quantity. Quality lives fast and dies young. Quantity dies an old person peacefully in their sleep at the ripe age of 95.

Don't get me wrong, though, you absolutely need both.

I also think the stupidity in their own end is a byproduct of AV hockey. Maybe not to the degree we see it, but this man-to-man scheme that we see every night is necessary for the offense that AV wants to play. They go hand-in-hand in AV's world.
True, but I also think there are clear signs of improvement even in the man-to-man scheme to make it work defensively. A lot of the time we see a player either just quit on the play, or make a weak attempt to defend, and I begin to wonder "what if we just had someone who was a bit more competent?"

If the personnel is good, then I feel like the defensive scheme becomes less dangerous than previously thought. I think one of the byproducts of his system is some increased confusion during the heat of the moment, but not complete stupidity. I don't buy it.

I also wonder if, in regards to the "quantity more reproducible than quality" argument, if that really only holds well in smaller sample sizes. With an offensive system like AVs, assuming all decent/good players, you're producing a large quantity of quality chances. So it would seem repeatable, no? The ability to to create a large quantity of quality chances is repeatable, and I think AVs system does just that.

Is that making sense? :dunno:
 
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