Speculation: Stammergeddon 3.0

[JoVel]

Guess I'll have to leave if he does.

There's always a chance he signs in Buffalo.

 

[Lightning1995]

I wonder if he will waive if we suck?

 

[Crunchrulz]

If there is even a remote good thing about Vasi's injury, it will prove once and for all just how good or bad the rest of the team is in front of him. Not having the best goalie in the NHL to cover for your errors means you have to play smarter. This also gives Stamkos a chance to either cement his place with the team for next season and beyond or open the door all the way for him to explore the Free Agent Market. He has been around long enough to understand that playing to the level we have come to expect from him is the key either way.

 

[DFC]

I mean, you're comparing him to maybe the 2 biggest playoff performers in the sport. And, 2 players with a larger cap hit than him.

The "Stamkos is bad in the playoffs" narrative is frankly tiring. He doesn't produce at his regular season rate. Few players do, though. He's still a hell of a contributor most of the time.

The thing with Stamkos is his best playoff performances tend to come in the games that matter least. And in the games that matter most, he often doesnt rise to the occasion. There have been exceptions, and he was fantastic in 2022. Outside of that year though, he really hasnt been an elite playoff performer. Or even a great one. He tends to top out at "pretty good."

I think its rose colored glasses to think the narrative is false. I actually agree that it's unfair to compare him to Point and Kuch. But like, Palat and Killorn were more on Stamkos's playoff tier than they should have been. Palat, overall, was probably a better playoff performer. Especially in latter years with us.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

The thing with Stamkos is his best playoff performances tend to come in the games that matter least. And in the games that matter most, he often doesnt rise to the occasion. There have been exceptions, and he was fantastic in 2022. Outside of that year though, he really hasnt been an elite playoff performer. Or even a great one. He tends to top out at "pretty good."

I think its rose colored glasses to think the narrative is false. I actually agree that it's unfair to compare him to Point and Kuch. But like, Palat and Killorn were more on Stamkos's playoff tier than they should have been. Palat, overall, was probably a better playoff performer. Especially in latter years with us.

I posted above on this, but in the last 2 runs he's also been the only player to score in the do-or-die games we've been eliminated.

Game 6, Toronto - Stamkos scores, no one else does. Same story in game 6 against Colorado. In the deciding game to advance to the SCF vs. the Rangers, Stamkos potted both goals in a 2-1 victory.

Since 2015, Stamkos has as many goals in games we've been eliminated in as the rest of the team combined (granted, the rest of the team only has 3).

I'm not saying he's particularly clutch or anything - but the guy isn't exactly the ghost in big moments that people make him out to be. He's had his moments.

 

[DFC]

I posted above on this, but in the last 2 runs he's also been the only player to score in the do-or-die games we've been eliminated.

Game 6, Toronto - Stamkos scores, no one else does. Same story in game 6 against Colorado. In the deciding game to advance to the SCF vs. the Rangers, Stamkos potted both goals in a 2-1 victory.

Since 2015, Stamkos has as many goals in games we've been eliminated in as the rest of the team combined (granted, the rest of the team only has 3).

I'm not saying he's particularly clutch or anything - but the guy isn't exactly the ghost in big moments that people make him out to be. He's had his moments.

I'll give you that. Although it seems like the majority of his scoring comes in garbage time.

He's not terrible in the playoffs. Hes just a tier or two below his regular season tier. More in line with guys like Palat.

I do think it's fair to say hes not a playoff performer though. Because the guys he's on par with in the regular season (top 30 in the league?) tend to be better than him in the playoffs.

 

[Sky04]

I would say the vast majority of top players still produce ppg rate in the playoffs at minimum, to excuse him for poor production while he largely doesn't provide anything else just seems like you're making excuses. PPG playoff runs aren't even impressive anymore given how many players do it with ease in today's game and he still can't match that.

We won the cup without the guy playing a single meaningful game and made game 7 of the ECF in another year where he missed the entire playoffs, if that doesn't tell you he's a complimentary player than I don't know what does. If you were to take any of our players on any given run at their best, Stamkos might be the 5th or 6th choice, that's definitely a replacement level contributor. As long as Hedman is around as well, leadership isn't lacking either.

 

[Antiramie]

Some people in here would really rather pay Stammer $7m+ over something like O'Reilly + Rodrigues?

f***ing wild.

I don't know how JBB, or anyone else, could justify paying him more than Hagel.

 

[Master P]

Stammer needs to stay.

He is the heart and soul of the team.

 

[The Gongshow]

I posted above on this, but in the last 2 runs he's also been the only player to score in the do-or-die games we've been eliminated.

Game 6, Toronto - Stamkos scores, no one else does. Same story in game 6 against Colorado. In the deciding game to advance to the SCF vs. the Rangers, Stamkos potted both goals in a 2-1 victory.

Since 2015, Stamkos has as many goals in games we've been eliminated in as the rest of the team combined (granted, the rest of the team only has 3).

I'm not saying he's particularly clutch or anything - but the guy isn't exactly the ghost in big moments that people make him out to be. He's had his moments.

This. I don't remember the stat, but they showed a graphic during game 6 against the Leafs and talked about Stamkos in elimination games actually being quite good.

 

[The Gongshow]

Some people in here would really rather pay Stammer $7m+ over something like O'Reilly + Rodrigues?

f***ing wild.

I don't know how JBB, or anyone else, could justify paying him more than Hagel.

I'd take Stamkos over ROR.

Better leadership due to this being Stammers team. Ror is a great leader but this is Stamkos' locker room.

We have Cirelli in the shutdown C position, although RoR has better offensive stats, ill admit Cirelli needs to produce a little more offense but in the playoffs he has been huge at shutting down oppositions top lines.

Rodriguez is not a selling feature. You don't take Rodriguez over Stamkos. RoR isn't enough to tip the scales to move in from Stamkos. Stamkos is still producing at a high level.

RoR at last years TDL would have been a great rental. Nothing more. You lose scoring with RoR at 2C over Stammer at 2C.

Edit: it does come down to cost. I'm going under the assumption he isn't asking for 8.5 - 9.5, but somewhere in the 6.5 - 7 range. If he asks for 9.5 that makes things very difficult

 

[Antiramie]

I'd take Stamkos over ROR.

Better leadership due to this being Stammers team. Ror is a great leader but this is Stamkos' locker room.

We have Cirelli in the shutdown C position, although RoR has better offensive stats, ill admit Cirelli needs to produce a little more offense but in the playoffs he has been huge at shutting down oppositions top lines.

Rodriguez is not a selling feature. You don't take Rodriguez over Stamkos. RoR isn't enough to tip the scales to move in from Stamkos. Stamkos is still producing at a high level.

RoR at last years TDL would have been a great rental. Nothing more. You lose scoring with RoR at 2C over Stammer at 2C.

Edit: it does come down to cost. I'm going under the assumption he isn't asking for 8.5 - 9.5, but somewhere in the 6.5 - 7 range. If he asks for 9.5 that makes things very difficult

You can get both, or the equivalent, for the cost of re-signing Stammer at $7-7.5M+. That was my point. Combined, they're making $7.5M off fresh deals.

 

[Rschmitz]

Some people in here would really rather pay Stammer $7m+ over something like O'Reilly + Rodrigues?

f***ing wild.

I don't know how JBB, or anyone else, could justify paying him more than Hagel.

Yes, 100% I would take Stamkos at 7 million. It's actuallying "f***ing wild" to me how anyone wouldn't

 

[Crunchrulz]

Yes, 100% I would take Stamkos at 7 million. It's actuallying "f***ing wild" to me how anyone wouldn't

Stamkos at 7 mil leaves appx 6 mil to once again fill out the remaining roster spots with scrubs who could not make another team's roster and career minor leaguers coming off a big AHL season.

At what point does the majority of fans of this organization realize enough is enough and if you pay your core seven most of your Cap space, you are going to have a very difficult time filling the rest of your roster with decent players? Five years behind us are the good, young players under ELCs who could be brought up cheaply to fill those roles and fill them well.

Should the team tank in the first or even the second round this season, do we sign Stamkos to a big deal that takes most of the remaining Cap space or do we allow him to walk and use that Cap space money to find two or three decent players to help the younger core that we have already committed a lot of money to?

You are NOT going to be able to do both, so that fantasy can be forgotten right now.

 

[JTBF81]

Stamkos at 7 mil leaves appx 6 mil to once again fill out the remaining roster spots with scrubs who could not make another team's roster and career minor leaguers coming off a big AHL season.

At what point does the majority of fans of this organization realize enough is enough and if you pay your core seven most of your Cap space, you are going to have a very difficult time filling the rest of your roster with decent players? Five years behind us are the good, young players under ELCs who could be brought up cheaply to fill those roles and fill them well.

Should the team tank in the first or even the second round this season, do we sign Stamkos to a big deal that takes most of the remaining Cap space or do we allow him to walk and use that Cap space money to find two or three decent players to help the younger core that we have already committed a lot of money to?

You are NOT going to be able to do both, so that fantasy can be forgotten right now.

If they can get Stamkos to less than 7, or right around 7 exactly, they can make it work provided JBB feels confident in this year's top 9 and some.of the prospect promotions. I mean, after Stamkos, the remaining positions for next year that need filling look to be a 3LD, a #7D, and 3 F for the 4th line/13th. If Stamkos takes.6.5-7, and the cap does go to 87.5, Tampa would.have 5.3-5.8 available. With at least one F spot going to a prospect in this scenario(possibly one of the D spots as well), the space is there to sign what they need.

They could spread out the cap space with more middle/bottom 6 options, and maybe a slightly better 3LD(all in the ~3 million aav range maybe). It's definitely one way to go, especially if the team struggles this season and JBB feels some more.fresh faces are in order. I'd still bet on Stamkos re-signing for a number that works for both sides, at least for the time being.

 

[Rschmitz]

Stamkos at 7 mil leaves appx 6 mil to once again fill out the remaining roster spots with scrubs who could not make another team's roster and career minor leaguers coming off a big AHL season.

At what point does the majority of fans of this organization realize enough is enough and if you pay your core seven most of your Cap space, you are going to have a very difficult time filling the rest of your roster with decent players? Five years behind us are the good, young players under ELCs who could be brought up cheaply to fill those roles and fill them well.

Should the team tank in the first or even the second round this season, do we sign Stamkos to a big deal that takes most of the remaining Cap space or do we allow him to walk and use that Cap space money to find two or three decent players to help the younger core that we have already committed a lot of money to?

You are NOT going to be able to do both, so that fantasy can be forgotten right now.

A ppg center who is good at face offs and not a liability at defense for 7m, that’s highway robbery. Add in he’s the face of the franchise and your team captain, if you need to fill the rest of the roster with meh players so be it, as long as it’s a short term deal this should not be an issue

 

[The Gongshow]

If they can get Stamkos to less than 7, or right around 7 exactly, they can make it work provided JBB feels confident in this year's top 9 and some.of the prospect promotions. I mean, after Stamkos, the remaining positions for next year that need filling look to be a 3LD, a #7D, and 3 F for the 4th line/13th. If Stamkos takes.6.5-7, and the cap does go to 87.5, Tampa would.have 5.3-5.8 available. With at least one F spot going to a prospect in this scenario(possibly one of the D spots as well), the space is there to sign what they need.

They could spread out the cap space with more middle/bottom 6 options, and maybe a slightly better 3LD(all in the ~3 million aav range maybe). It's definitely one way to go, especially if the team struggles this season and JBB feels some more.fresh faces are in order. I'd still bet on Stamkos re-signing for a number that works for both sides, at least for the time being.

People would rather fill the bottom 6 than keep the top 6, ppg forward who also wears the C, after we've already lost two other top 6 forwards (killorn and palat) and lose scoring depth for what? Random 10 goal, 30 point player and an aging vet?

They most likely won't be able to get the same points production out of 2FA They would with Stamkos. Not for 6.5-7mil.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

I would say the vast majority of top players still produce ppg rate in the playoffs at minimum, to excuse him for poor production while he largely doesn't provide anything else just seems like you're making excuses. PPG playoff runs aren't even impressive anymore given how many players do it with ease in today's game and he still can't match that.

We won the cup without the guy playing a single meaningful game and made game 7 of the ECF in another year where he missed the entire playoffs, if that doesn't tell you he's a complimentary player than I don't know what does. If you were to take any of our players on any given run at their best, Stamkos might be the 5th or 6th choice, that's definitely a replacement level contributor. As long as Hedman is around as well, leadership isn't lacking either.

We made the SCF in 2022 with Point out between the first round and game 5 of the finals. If that doesn't tell you he's a complementary player then I don't know what does.


See how easy that is?

(Fun fact: Stamkos had 11 goals that year, tops on the team alongside Palat)

 

[JoVel]

Stamkos has played 123 playoff games in his career, of course you can cherrypick singular games or series to suit your narrative one way or the other.

But the fact is that Stamkos' playoff career ppg is a 63 point pace over an 82 game season. On the ice, Stamkos for the most part of his career has offered very little outside scoring. I don't know how you look at that and don't think he hasn't underperformed in the playoffs. His best playoff runs are comparable to those of Killorn or Palat's.

 

[Sky04]

We made the SCF in 2022 with Point out between the first round and game 5 of the finals. If that doesn't tell you he's a complementary player then I don't know what does.


See how easy that is?

(Fun fact: Stamkos had 11 goals that year, tops on the team alongside Palat)

Yeah we're going to sit here and make dumb arguments like comparing Stamkos to Point in the playoffs. All that shows is that we probably would've won with Point (who scored the OT winner en route to getting injured) vs Stamkos who's only skillset is shooting has never scored at OT winner in the playoffs and has all of 8 more playoff goals than Alex Killorn and less playoff goals than Palat. Tyler Johnson has almost double the amount of GWG's than Stamkos does and he hasn't even suited up for a playoff game in 2 years.

Fun fact, he was still under a ppg that year, by a lot and that was one if his best runs

 

[DFC]

Stamkos has played 123 playoff games in his career, of course you can cherrypick singular games or series to suit your narrative one way or the other.

But the fact is that Stamkos' playoff career ppg is a 63 point pace over an 82 game season. On the ice, Stamkos for the most part of his career has offered very little outside scoring. I don't know how you look at that and don't think he hasn't underperformed in the playoffs. His best playoff runs are comparable to those of Killorn or Palat's.

This. His playoff comparables are guys who should be at least a full tier below him.

It's not like we are just picking on Stamkos. Not a single person will say he wasn't great in 2022, because that's what a great playoffs looks like. That's the one time he did it. I don't even believe that should be the expectation for him; but that year was VERY different from his usual post-season.

I mean, hey, it's recent enough that I believe he could have another one or two in him. But it seems like pure fiction that his career playoff performances looked anything like that year.

 

[DFC]

Yes, 100% I would take Stamkos at 7 million. It's actuallying "f***ing wild" to me how anyone wouldn't

Yeah, no question. He's still worth that, or more, in the regular season. And that's probably around what he's worth in the playoffs too.

 

[Crunchrulz]

So it reads like the opinion of many is to pay Stamkos whatever he wants as long as it is between 7 and 7.5 million, cross our fingers the Cap does go up, then fill the rest of the roster with players at a million or less a season due to Cap Restraints.
Fun times are ahead.

 

[JTBF81]

So it reads like the opinion of many is to pay Stamkos whatever he wants as long as it is between 7 and 7.5 million, cross our fingers the Cap does go up, then fill the rest of the roster with players at a million or less a season due to Cap Restraints.
Fun times are ahead.

Or replace a 85-95 point player with 2 ~3 million meh F who might, between them, equal the production of Stamkos. And maybe have an extra million for a slightly better 3LD that realistically, won't be that much of an upgrade over the ~1 million 3LD they'll have next season.

 

[OffBy1]

I'm thinking JB is going to let him walk if he can't get him at a contract that doesn't overly constrain the rest of the roster. The "I need more information... assess at the end of the season" story is just trying to warm us all up to that likely outcome. If Stamkos' performance dips this season, that will make JB look reasonable if Stamkos walks because he couldn't get a huge contract. If Stamkos has another 90 point season, we probably can't afford to keep him.

Or replace a 85-95 point player with 2 ~3 million meh F who might, between them, equal the production of Stamkos. And maybe have an extra million for a slightly better 3LD that realistically, won't be that much of an upgrade over the ~1 million 3LD they'll have next season.

The unanswerable question is how long is Stamkos going to remain an 85-95 player and then weight that against how many years you have to sign him at that rate to keep him.

And it depends on which 2-3 mil forward you replace him with. FL signed Marchessault for under a mil a year and got 30 goals out of him that year. They later signed Verhaeghe for 1 mil a year deal and got 18 goals in 43 games from him in his first year, 24 in the 2nd. It's not like you can rely on gems like that falling into your lap, but you try to replace him with a cheaper player(s) who haven't had their best seasons yet and are affordable and ascending while Stammer is inevitably going to descend in the next year or two.

Hopefully Groshev turns out to be Kucherov-light and we just promote him up next year.