Speculation: Stammergeddon 3.0

[Sky04]

So it reads like the opinion of many is to pay Stamkos whatever he wants as long as it is between 7 and 7.5 million, cross our fingers the Cap does go up, then fill the rest of the roster with players at a million or less a season due to Cap Restraints.
Fun times are ahead.

Yes? Who wouldn't take Stamkos at 7M? Sounds dumb to lose him for that.

 

[Rschmitz]

Stamkos has his warts, but he's a top 30 scorer in this league. 7m is about the cost of a decent top 6 center, it's not a sentimental decision if that is the number it takes to keep him, it's very cheap. Should be riots on channelside if we walk away from that on a 3 year deal or shorter.

I do think we ultimately lose Stamkos, he stands to make too much this offseason as the most attractive potential free agent on the market

 

[DFC]

Stamkos has his warts, but he's a top 30 scorer in this league. 7m is about the cost of a decent top 6 center, it's not a sentimental decision if that is the number it takes to keep him, it's very cheap. Should be riots on channelside if we walk away from that on a 3 year deal or shorter.

I do think we ultimately lose Stamkos, he stands to make too much this offseason as the most attractive potential free agent on the market

I'd do 4 at 7m.

7m would be a bargain in the region season (for now) and about market value in the playoffs.

 

[OffBy1]

I do think we ultimately lose Stamkos, he stands to make too much this offseason as the most attractive potential free agent on the market

This is why I think we'll lose him as well. Some team out there with garbage at center will throw too much money or term and JB won't be willing or able to match. If it happened with Palat and Killorn, how will it not happen with a player the caliber of Stamkos?

 

[JTBF81]

This is why I think we'll lose him as well. Some team out there with garbage at center will throw too much money or term and JB won't be willing or able to match. If it happened with Palat and Killorn, how will it not happen with a player the caliber of Stamkos?

The difference is that Stamkos will at least probably get a reasonable, albeit lower than market value, offer. Both Palat and Killorn were basically given pretty terrible lowball offers with term to try and keep them around. Stamkos has mentioned he wants to play around 20 years, so a 4(maybe 5) year offer with an aav in the 6.5-7 may be enough. He has made it clear he wants to retire a Bolt, and given the amount of money he will have already made just off hockey(somewhere between 105-110 after this year I think), a final pay day of close to 30 million extra(and probabaly a position with the team all but a guarantee after, if he wants it), I think he'd stay in town. Stamkos is well aware of how much space they'll have given an increase to 87.5, so he'll know how much he can realistically get from JBB and have the team still have enough for the other spots. I don't see him as a guy just interested in the bag, at least based on his previous deals.

 

[Sky04]

Yeah he's not going anywhere, cap is projected to be at 87.5-88M next season. Even if he takes 8M, that's over 4M to fill out 3-4 roster spots which we are already doing with cheap contracts anyways. The only players not on contract next year assuming Stamkos re-signs is De Hann, Bogosian, ABB and Motte, all very replaceable for 4M.

 

[The Gongshow]

Yeah he's not going anywhere, cap is projected to be at 87.5-88M next season. Even if he takes 8M, that's over 4M to fill out 3-4 roster spots which we are already doing with cheap contracts anyways. The only players not on contract next year assuming Stamkos re-signs is De Hann, Bogosian, ABB and Motte, all very replaceable for 4M.

This. We have the cap space for Stammer and to sign the depth pieces. There's no notable FA or RFA next season, Stamkos is the priority signing.

 

[JTBF81]

Yeah he's not going anywhere, cap is projected to be at 87.5-88M next season. Even if he takes 8M, that's over 4M to fill out 3-4 roster spots which we are already doing with cheap contracts anyways. The only players not on contract next year assuming Stamkos re-signs is De Hann, Bogosian, ABB and Motte, all very replaceable for 4M.

For Tampa to reach a 22 player roster next season, they'll need to sign 5 more players on top of Stamkos(3F, 2D). Granted, those spots are 4th line/13th F tykes and 6/7 dmen types, but I'm guessing JBB will want close to 5 million available for them. Depending on the exact cap number, that would still leave them between 7.3 and 7.8, so I could see Stamkos as high as 7.5. In any case, I don't see him leaving either.

 

[Rschmitz]

I don’t share the optimism that we re-sign him, that is a lot of extra cap space for other teams to sign him too. I think we could have kept him for sub 8m, but with the lack of effort on that front I suspect his incentive to stay isn’t going to be there.

I predict he tests the market, in which case he signs elsewhere for something stupid that we all agree is beyond our price point, which could have been avoided. Finding his replacement next offseason is going to be treacherous, the options are limited.

 

[DFC]

I don’t share the optimism that we re-sign him, that is a lot of extra cap space for other teams to sign him too. I think we could have kept him for sub 8m, but with the lack of effort on that front I suspect his incentive to stay isn’t going to be there.

I predict he tests the market, in which case he signs elsewhere for something stupid that we all agree is beyond our price point, which could have been avoided. Finding his replacement next offseason is going to be treacherous, the options are limited.

I dont think he does that to spite management if he wants to stay.

 

[Sky04]

I don’t share the optimism that we re-sign him, that is a lot of extra cap space for other teams to sign him too. I think we could have kept him for sub 8m, but with the lack of effort on that front I suspect his incentive to stay isn’t going to be there.

I predict he tests the market, in which case he signs elsewhere for something stupid that we all agree is beyond our price point, which could have been avoided. Finding his replacement next offseason is going to be treacherous, the options are limited.

I don't think there's a place in the league that's worth it for him to go to for ~2M more if even. Why at this point? He's not chasing money, I don't really think they want anymore than a fair deal is the Stamkos camp, the only way he leaves is of JBB doesn't want him back.

 

[Rschmitz]

I dont think he does that to spite management if he wants to stay.

I don’t think it’s out of spite, I think he would be reciprocating the self interest shown to him. He could have every intention on returning but once you hit the open market, it's a lot like dating other people, stupid things can happen.

 

[Rschmitz]

I don't think there's a place in the league that's worth it for him to go to for ~2M more if even. Why at this point? He's not chasing money, I don't really think they want anymore than a fair deal is the Stamkos camp, the only way he leaves is of JBB doesn't want him back.

Is this just something we are hopeful for? Because he's not Andreychuk either, there are 11 teams with 30m+ in projected cap space and a lot of potential story lines for a player who is clearly being told he's no longer essential to the team

 

[Sky04]

Is this just something we are hopeful for? Because he's not Andreychuk either, there are 11 teams with 30m+ in projected cap space and a lot of potential story lines for a player who is clearly being told he's no longer essential to the team

Well if he's chasing money why would he indicate he wanted a contract done now with a cap strapped team......as you pointed out it's the Lightning who are holding off.

And most of those teams have significant re-signings to do so that 30M sounds nice but it's not going to be prioritized on a 34 year old forward. I don't see teams lining out the door to overpay Stamkos, maybe Arizona but not a competitive team.

 

[Rschmitz]

Well if he's chasing money why would he indicate he wanted a contract done now with a cap strapped team......as you pointed out it's the Lightning who are holding off.

And most of those teams have significant re-signings to do so that 30M sounds nice but it's not going to be prioritized on a 34 year old forward. I don't see teams lining out the door to overpay Stamkos, maybe Arizona but not a competitive team.

He wants a contract now to show that he's an essential part of the team. Know what else could do that though? Another team offering him more $$$. From what I hear all the time from athletes is that the money is important, but it’s what the money says about you that they care about the most. Right now we are saying we don’t care about you enough to take care of this now.

There isn't a lot of supply offseason 2024, prices are going to be driven up big time.

 

[Felonious Python]

Ever noticed the occasional resemblance with Prince Bernhard Jr. of the Netherlands?

 

[Major4Boarding]

Ever noticed the occasional resemblance with Prince Bernhard Jr. of the Netherlands?

I still say it's the guy on the far right (below) - For the win

 

[Antiramie]

Gotta think that JBB is waiting to see how this roster plays out this season before re-signing Stammer. If we don't look up to snuff he might do a soft rebuild, and I don't see how you could prioritize a 34 year old PP specialist who falls off pretty hard in the playoffs in that plan...captain or not...especially when a lot of your core are in their mid twenties.

Again, I don't know why so many people are looking at his worth through the lens of his regular season stats. If we can replace his cap with a couple players who are better suited for playoff play and allow us to still make the playoffs then viewing Stammer's contract in terms of regular season production doesn't make much sense.

 

[Todd1a]

Gotta think that JBB is waiting to see how this roster plays out this season before re-signing Stammer. If we don't look up to snuff he might do a soft rebuild, and I don't see how you could prioritize a 34 year old PP specialist who falls off pretty hard in the playoffs in that plan...captain or not...especially when a lot of your core are in their mid twenties.

Again, I don't know why so many people are looking at his worth through the lens of his regular season stats. If we can replace his cap with a couple players who are better suited for playoff play and allow us to still make the playoffs then viewing Stammer's contract in terms of regular season production doesn't make much sense.

You can do a soft rebuild when you have no first rounders in 2024 and 2025 unfortunately.

 

[Rschmitz]

Gotta think that JBB is waiting to see how this roster plays out this season before re-signing Stammer. If we don't look up to snuff he might do a soft rebuild, and I don't see how you could prioritize a 34 year old PP specialist who falls off pretty hard in the playoffs in that plan...captain or not...especially when a lot of your core are in their mid twenties.

Again, I don't know why so many people are looking at his worth through the lens of his regular season stats. If we can replace his cap with a couple players who are better suited for playoff play and allow us to still make the playoffs then viewing Stammer's contract in terms of regular season production doesn't make much sense.

The last time Stamkos didn't play at least 2/3 of the season we missed the playoffs, I think it's a mistake to dismiss his regular season production just because we've comfortably made it the last 7 years. We need a 40+ goal season out of him now more than ever.

 

[Antiramie]

The last time Stamkos didn't play at least 2/3 of the season we missed the playoffs, I think it's a mistake to dismiss his regular season production just because we've comfortably made it the last 7 years. We need a 40+ goal season out of him now more than ever.

Bringing in two players for $7-$7.5M total who may not combine to equal Stamkos' regular season production isn't equivalent to losing the latter without a comparable replacement for 65 games though...

 

[Antiramie]

You can do a soft rebuild when you have no first rounders in 2024 and 2025 unfortunately.

What about potentially freeing up $7M+ in roster space and getting 5-10 years younger at one or two forward positions?

 

[Stammertime91]

I still say it's the guy on the far right (below) - For the win

View attachment 749517

I thought the craziest comparison was Stamkos and his dad. They look so similar.



Who bites

 

[Rschmitz]

Bringing in two players for $7-$7.5M total who may not combine to equal Stamkos' regular season production isn't equivalent to losing the latter without a comparable replacement for 65 games though...

If you think his replacements would contribute equally I wouldn’t call it a rebuild then, that sorta implies we would be less good and losing. I would instead argue to you that we wouldn’t find anything comparable to Stamkos for 7m

In either case I don’t think we should take a step back with so many stars in their primes, until we have no other choice. At that point if JBB did his job correctly we should do a full rebuilding of the roster and accumulate as many picks and prospects as possible.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

I think it’s pretty clear, with his two goals in the preseason, that jeannot is the stamkos replacement.