Speculation: Stammergeddon 3.0

[garmonbozia]

Out of fear of derailing the Killorn thread, I decided to start a discussion here of where everybody stands with Stamkos and his impending free agency.

I know most would love the feel good story of him staying on the Lightning for his entire career, myself included. I also think its naive to assume he'll do that for significantly less than he's worth. The cap space isn't going to be there to extend Hagel and re-sign Stamkos.

I feel like next year is Stamkos' last year with the Lightning and most fans are either indifferent or just take it for granted that he won't stay no matter the circumstances contractually.

Where do you stand on Stammergeddon 3.0? How do you see it affecting this offseason?

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[FinnLightning26]

How the f*** is it seven years already since the last one?

 

[LightningStrikes]

My guess is he’ll sign a retirement contract at a discount with us.

 

[Zwui21]

No way we re-sign him at a similar AAV. He'll be 34, so he'll have to accept a decent paycut. And if there's a guy that I can see accepting a good paycut in order to give his group and himself another chance at a couple of Cup runs, that's Stammer.
His production is decreasing, his 5v5 game hasn't been prolific for a couple of years and even on the PP he's not as efficient. But nothing can be said about the guy as a person: he's as good of a leader as we could wish for, proper heart and soul.
I could see a 3 years deal so that he'll get paid way less but have a contract secured till he's 37.

 

[Sky04]

I don't see a discount contract, no one has taken one under JBB and another PPG regular season gives Stamkos' agent plenty of leverage for at least the same dollar amount.

Ovechkin did the same thing and his play wasn't declining 5 more years at his current caphit, Malkin took a discount but he was injury riddled and declined in production the years leading up to his extension. Stamkos will likely get an Ovechkin type contract barring major injury this season. 5 x 8.5M and JBB is going to give it to him even though this team could use that caphit to fill bigger holes.

6M is out to lunch.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

He signs a discount contract and makes the rest of his money flipping houses in Davis Islands.

 

[Byrddog]

I don't see a discount contract, no one has taken one under JBB and another PPG regular season gives Stamkos' agent plenty of leverage for at least the same dollar amount.

Ovechkin did the same thing and his play wasn't declining 5 more years at his current caphit, Malkin took a discount but he was injury riddled and declined in production the years leading up to his extension. Stamkos will likely get an Ovechkin type contract barring major injury this season. 5 x 8.5M and JBB is going to give it to him even though this team could use that caphit to fill bigger holes.

6M is out to lunch.

Spot in. There is no reason for Stammer to take less money Nor would it be appropriate for the team to ask him to. He just had 34 goals and 84 points right. A point per game player who is totally capable of reproducing similar numbers for the next year or two. You want to keep high production players you pay them. You do not pay 6 mil to 40 point guys and expect discounts. Now if his production and and skating ability has fallen to the level of say Perry then that’s another thing. And because he wants to retire a Bolt means little so Have a number of other guys that had to move on.

 

[Felonious Python]

Spot in. There is no reason for Stammer to take less money Nor would it be appropriate for the team to ask him to. He just had 34 goals and 84 points right. A point per game player who is totally capable of reproducing similar numbers for the next year or two. You want to keep high production players you pay them. You do not pay 6 mil to 40 point guys and expect discounts. Now if his production and and skating ability has fallen to the level of say Perry then that’s another thing. And because he wants to retire a Bolt means little so Have a number of other guys that had to move on.

He's taken haircuts in the past. We're in our window still, so it's not like we're trying to reach the cap floor.

We know how to fit him in making his current AAV, and the cap going up will help.

Aging curves have a downside, too.

 

[TheFurryPickle]

re signs for bugger all, so we get Gourde and Palat back

and rutta

 

[JTBF81]

If Stamkos takes a discount he'll probably stay. If not, JBB should let him walk. If JBB can lock up Hagel long term this Summer, the $ for Stamkos will be the difference there plus cap increase and whatever other small amount may be available. He's not worth another 8.5 for age 35-39 years, unless the team has good info the cap is going up by a significant margin.

 

[DFC]

I think we pay him if he signs short, discount if he signs long. Maybe 8.5x1 or 2, and then down from there.

 

[Byrddog]

He's taken haircuts in the past. We're in our window still, so it's not like we're trying to reach the cap floor.

We know how to fit him in making his current AAV, and the cap going up will help.

Aging curves have a downside, too. That makes it even more of a concern honestly if a player has done it before then expectations are set. It still should not relieve a gm who has given out contracts they should not have or taken on contracts that were just horrible. We have all seen that take Johnson’s contract for example the money was gone at the time but in the end the term was bad especially when he started hitting the IR then there was Louongo whose contract made him untradable in Vancouver then any number of guys across the league bought out. The history only shows what teams will do to lock a player that puts them in long term cap problems. Either retaining or buying out guys Pejorative Slur the amount that can be used to field a competitive roster. The number of large contracts is what has put the Bolts in CAP trouble so it creates a situation that you have to move a big contract or let a player walk to fill the roster. Too many young players and too many bargain basement players cost the roster this year. It’s a hard pill to swallow stay the course as you core aged while playing cheap players to fill out. And expect the captain to accept less is a poor plan. Even more difficult is Bettman who has tried to keep the hopes up that the cap will indeed go up more than 1 mil this year. But folks need to read his comments on the Forbes article where he states the cap could go up between 1 and 4.5 if nothing happens right now it’s 1 or if things go perfect it could rise as much as 4.5. Bettman has a poor record meeting his cap increase goals. And I for one do not expect more than 1 mil heck three months ago there was a chance that the cap would decrease. The season is almost done and Bettman still has no set in earth amount for the cap. I trust Bettmans words as much as a wet fart.

 

[JTBF81]

Just like with most of Tampa's older players when they reach the end of their deals, it's take the discount or time to go. Hagel can't be lost for Stamkos to get paid big for ages 35-38 or whatever. If Hagel will sign for around 6-6.5, Stamkos should probably be able to get around 7, provided the cap is going up 3 or 4 million. Hedman is due the year after as well, so handing Stamkos another 8.5 ends Hagel staying most likely, as well as making things tougher with Hedman potentially and other contracts of younger players(if Colton is short term, Perbix's next deal etc). Stamkos has been a great regular season player and great team captain, but it's poor asset management imo to possibly lose multiple young, talented players to keep him. I think if they offer him like 4-5 years at 7 or maybe 7.5, that's still plenty of additional $ and he gets to retire a Bolt having made over 100 million in his career from contracts alone.

 

[Zwui21]

I think if they offer him like 4-5 years at 7 or maybe 7.5, that's still plenty of additional $ and he gets to retire a Bolt having made over 100 million in his career from contracts alone.

Honestly 7M AAV for Stammer, for what he brings come playoff time, would be way to much still.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Honestly 7M AAV for Stammer, for what he brings come playoff time, would be way to much still.

If he wants to be a team player, he takes $6M. Which is fair enough.

 

[DMB06]

If Stammer was a playoff performer than I'd say give him 7-8. He is not, and therefore the decision is an easy one. Re-sign him for less money, say 5-6, or let him walk. I get that he's our captain and so far a lifelong Bolt, but we have to objectively acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses (or at least JBB better) of our players. The determination is how much a good regular season player is worth knowing they aren't going to match that level of play once the playoffs start. And then you have to somehow quantify how much you believe leadership is worth.

I'm fine with letting him walk if he wants over 6, maybe even 5.

 

[Lightning1995]

Hagel is a must keep. Stammer is gonna have to take a cut, unfortunately. I hope something can be worked out

 

[Todd1a]

I’d say they will pay him 7 avv for 4 years term that’s 28 million a nice retirement contract

 

[AndreRoy]

If Stammer was a playoff performer than I'd say give him 7-8. He is not, and therefore the decision is an easy one. Re-sign him for less money, say 5-6, or let him walk. I get that he's our captain and so far a lifelong Bolt, but we have to objectively acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses (or at least JBB better) of our players. The determination is how much a good regular season player is worth knowing they aren't going to match that level of play once the playoffs start. And then you have to somehow quantify how much you believe leadership is worth.

I'm fine with letting him walk if he wants over 6, maybe even 5.

This. I’m a big believer in loyalty, respect Stammer as a person and as a Lightning great, and would love to see him finish his career as a Bolt if he’s willing to do so at a team-friendly price, but that doesn’t mean JBB should sabotage the entire team by overpaying him for what he is at this point in his career: a power play specialist (albeit a very good one) who is dependent on his linemates to set him up and who has a history of underperforming in the postseason.

 

[Zwui21]

I’d say they will pay him 7 avv for 4 years term that’s 28 million a nice retirement contract

Am I the only one that sees this and would rather let him walk if that's the number? I love Stammer, I really do, but 7 AAV for what he brings... yikes

 

[The Gongshow]

Stamkos should be the first Tampa lifer. It was awful seeing Vinny and Marty in anothet jersey. Stamkos is the GOAT lightning player. Could be bas for locker room as well, plus if you lose Stamkos, Hedman is gone next year as well.

That said, I think Stammer takes a discount. He knows the team needs cap to be successful and could go on another run or 2. He's smart and led the charge on the first batch of team friendly deals. He'll do it again.

 

[Sky04]

I highly doubt Hedman would live because we didn't re sign Stamkos, the only way he'd leave is if we didn't have the cap re sign him, in which case Stamkos leaving provides that, so you could say not signing Stamkos actually increases our chances of keeping Hedman.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Am I the only one that sees this and would rather let him walk if that's the number? I love Stammer, I really do, but 7 AAV for what he brings... yikes

Steven Stamkos Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Steven Stamkos, a hockey player from Markham, ONT born Feb 7 1990 who was active from 2006 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

Like, come on, that man is worth 7m.

 

[DFC]

I think he's worth 7 for a couple of years. And I'd be ok with a short deal in the 7-8 range. If he wants term, I think we have to get down around 6. Which I would be fine with, because it will be hard to keep our window open more than 3 or 4 years anyway.

 

[JTBF81]

I think he's worth 7 for a couple of years. And I'd be ok with a short deal in the 7-8 range. If he wants term, I think we have to get down around 6. Which I would be fine with, because it will be hard to keep our window open more than 3 or 4 years anyway.

Nah, not even short-term at 7-8 if it means losing Hagel or any of the other younger guys, but especially Hagel.