Speculation: Stammergeddon 3.0

[Crunchrulz]

While taking advantage of Cap Friendly's contract comparable tool, i decided to see if i could find some similar contracts signed in the 6.5-8m range for 34 year olds of Stamkos-esque career in GP and Points.

Vincent Lecavalier 33yo (PHI 2013)- 5 year 4.5m AAV 7% Cap hit
Nicklas Backstrom 32yo (WSH 2020)- 5 year 9.2m AAV 11.29% Cap hit
Henrik Sedin 33yo (VAN 2014)- 4 year 7m AAV 10.89% Cap hit
Ryan O'Reilly 32yo (NSH 2023)- 4 year 4.5m AAV 5.39% Cap hit
Jason Spezza 32yo (DAL 2015)- 4 year 7.5m AAV 10.87% Cap hit


So roughly looking at between 7%-10% (6.125m AAV to 8.75m AAV) Cap hit for 4-5 years.

Rather than focus on what one contract does or does not do, take a look at the whole picture. Each team is required to have a minimum number of contracts at or under the Cap. Those organizations that tie a significant amount of their cap space into a handful of contracts must be able to accept the harsh reality that they will have to fill out the rest of the roster with players who are either in their entry level deals or cast offs from other organizations for one reason or another. In addition, when contracts come due, the organizations need to look at what is best for the organization to remain successful. If that means letting a fan favorite or a key piece of the past success go, then it has to happen if the two sides cannot agree on a "happy medium".

The days of the Lightning being able to fill the roster with skilled players at good contracts are over. We mortgaged that future to get where we have been the last five seasons. There is not another organization in the league that would not have done the same thing, if they had had the ability to do so. Any organization or fan that tells you otherwise is a liar.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Got to pay him, we’re already slowly shutting our window. Give Stamkos his sailboat money. He’s earned it

Obviously.

 

[Felonious Python]

first segment


Stammer wants to play 20 years. This will be season 16.

 

[Point21]

 

[Sky04]

95 points in 123 playoff games isn't "bringing it"

For a forward who has been top 10 in the game for more than a decade? Thats pretty bad, that's 63 point pace for a guy who doesn't provide much else other than scoring so thank you for proving the point with those numbers.

Not to mention the majority of those games came on a top team in the league that went on multiple deep runs, really highlights how much his play drops off in the playoffs considering he's over PPG in the regular season through 1000+ games.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

For a forward who has been top 10 in the game for more than a decade? Thats pretty bad, that's 63 point pace for a guy who doesn't provide much else other than scoring so thank you for proving the point with those numbers.

Not to mention the majority of those games came on a top team in the league that went on multiple deep runs, really highlights how much his play drops off in the playoffs considering he's over PPG in the regular season through 1000+ games.

It was only really in 2022 where he stepped up and played up to his level during the playoffs. Every other postseason that I can remember, most of his production came on the power play, he was nowhere near the factor at 5v5 that you wish he was...I realize how unfair it is to point out one particular thing, but he had a breakaway in Game 6 against the Blackhawks when the game was still 0-0, if he'd been able to score that, could've led to an entirely different outcome in that game. Kinda felt like a battleship sinking moment when he was denied.

 

[Rschmitz]

If JBB wanted him back they would have had discussions.

 

[Point21]

If JBB wanted him back they would have had discussions.

not necessarily, nobody knows what the confirmed cap number is gonna be. 87.5m isnt a guaranteed # and anything lower will hurt our chances to bring him back. Im not gonna start to worry until after the cup is raised and we get closer to the draft. we could very well see JBB flip him at the draft to his preferred team with an extension for a couple of picks or prospects

 

[LightningStrikes]

If JBB wanted him back they would have had discussions.

Yup. Hagel’s extension got done too.

 

[Todd1a]

Stamkos to the florida panthers makes a lot of sense they could offer Stamkos a 5 year contract for 8.5 AAV and he still plays on a contender and maybe a way better team then the lightning

 

[DMB06]

Would be wonderful if the media didn't act like a middle school aged girl who just found out Billy kissed Susie when he was supposed to be interested in Amanda!

 

[Rschmitz]

not necessarily, nobody knows what the confirmed cap number is gonna be. 87.5m isnt a guaranteed # and anything lower will hurt our chances to bring him back. Im not gonna start to worry until after the cup is raised and we get closer to the draft. we could very well see JBB flip him at the draft to his preferred team with an extension for a couple of picks or prospects

Shouldn't matter, Stamkos being a free agent next summer is not a surprise, JBB has had time to prepare for it if he wanted to. If he was part of the plan JBB would have a certain number in mind to sign him for that works in a worst case cap scenario, and then he can simply communicate that number could increase if Stamkos wants to wait until the cap # was certain. According to Stamkos, that conversation never happened.


Cap uncertainty is such a ludicrous excuse to not engage in contract talks, half the team has signed 8 year contract extensions. They don't have to agree to a contract at this time, but they can certainly lay the groundwork. I see this is a calculated move by a GM who was quietly trying to position himself to let a very popular player go until Stamkos spoke out.

 

[Point21]

Shouldn't matter, Stamkos being a free agent next summer is not a surprise, JBB has had time to prepare for it if he wanted to. If he was part of the plan JBB would have a certain number in mind to sign him for that works in a worst case cap scenario, and then he can simply communicate that number could increase if Stamkos wants to wait until the cap # was certain. According to Stamkos, that conversation never happened.


Cap uncertainty is such a ludicrous excuse to not engage in contract talks, half the team has signed 8 year contract extensions. They don't have to agree to a contract at this time, but they can certainly lay the groundwork. I see this is a calculated move by a GM who was quietly trying to position himself to let a very popular player go until Stamkos spoke out.

How is it a ludicrous excuse? We're talking a 4m difference in a salary cap difference for the offseason. i highly doubt JBB is gonna throw out even a 6m deal now incase the cap hypothetically only goes up 1m for next year which really f***s the team over for the bottom 6 and likely ends up in someone like Cernak or Cirelli being traded to pay the bottom 6 league minimum deals. Do i like that there hasnt been any conversation? no... but i agree with playing it out. If Stamkos leaves then so be it.

 

[Todd1a]

If JBB wanted him back they would have had discussions.

Agree I bet you that hedman signs his next deal one year out because he is apart of JBB plan going forward

 

[Rschmitz]

How is it a ludicrous excuse? We're talking a 4m difference in a salary cap difference for the offseason. i highly doubt JBB is gonna throw out even a 6m deal now incase the cap hypothetically only goes up 1m for next year which really f***s the team over for the bottom 6 and likely ends up in someone like Cernak or Cirelli being traded to pay the bottom 6 league minimum deals. Do i like that there hasnt been any conversation? no... but i agree with playing it out. If Stamkos leaves then so be it.

How is it not ludicrous to keep the guy who's been the face of your franchise in the loop on how you plan on keeping him around? Stamkos said he's reached out to get something done, it takes absolutely nothing to pick up the phone and be transparent.

 

[CupsOverCash]

If they haven't had discussion yet it's gotta feel a little like a slap in the face for him but at same time if they haven't had discussion it doesn't mean something won't get done. It's true that we don't know the cap figure and he is older player on the decline. I think its probably smart to see what the right number would or should be. However to not even say that to him would probably feel like a slap in the face to the face of our franchise and hes right to be disappointed i think. That is probably a mistake by jbb there. It doesn't mean something still won't get done.

 

[Crunchrulz]

If you sign Stamkos to the salary that many here feel he deserves, which of your younger core group to you trade to create cap space to fill out the rest of your roster with capable players rather than bottom six and pairing pairing scrubs? Even if the cap does go up the "expected" amount, you are still looking at peanuts left over to complete the roster after signing Stamkos to the "sweetheart retirement deal".

As proven by the roster of teams like the Yankees, you can have a roster of high priced stars all you want, but if you fail to provide a supporting cast that is capable of doing the dirty work to allow your stars to shine, you are merely putting on a show that starts with a lot of promise but sadly ends without an encore.

 

[CupsOverCash]

If you sign Stamkos to the salary that many here feel he deserves, which of your younger core group to you trade to create cap space to fill out the rest of your roster with capable players rather than bottom six and pairing pairing scrubs? Even if the cap does go up the "expected" amount, you are still looking at peanuts left over to complete the roster after signing Stamkos to the "sweetheart retirement deal".

As proven by the roster of teams like the Yankees, you can have a roster of high priced stars all you want, but if you fail to provide a supporting cast that is capable of doing the dirty work to allow your stars to shine, you are merely putting on a show that starts with a lot of promise but sadly ends without an encore.

I think its important how you handle it too. Gotta keep a professional look in how you handle your players. Especially one like Stamkos who really did a lot for the team. They don't HAVE to keep him but they should at least look like they're trying to keep him. This looks like they don't give a shit which is wrong way to go. I dont think anyone is saying to pay him what he wants. Just handle it the right way. Which again they could still do better imo. Plenty of time. It just looks bad so far.

 

[bov]

Earlier in the summer, JBB implied that Stamkos might take some time to get done. Definitely sounded like his highest priorities were Hagel and Jeannot. I'm a little surprised that he's willing to have this hanging over the captain's head all season, but then again, what we hear publicly might not mean much. I can't imagine Stamkos having to go through an entire season of speculation and trade talk, then walking in free agency. Something's gotta happen.

 

[Crunchrulz]

I think its important how you handle it too. Gotta keep a professional look in how you handle your players. Especially one like Stamkos who really did a lot for the team. They don't HAVE to keep him but they should at least look like they're trying to keep him. This looks like they don't give a shit which is wrong way to go. I dont think anyone is saying to pay him what he wants. Just handle it the right way. Which again they could still do better imo. Plenty of time. It just looks bad so far.

Good points.
One would assume that JBB is waiting to see how the team performs before he makes a decision one way or the other on Stamkos.
If they perform well and make it deep into the post season, he finds the room and gets the "gift" contract Stamkos deserves.
If they repeat last season's failure, then it is clear there is not enough support for the stars and Stamkos needs to be allowed to move on so the organization can use that cap space to bring in two or three higher quality support players to help the core six.
All of this is mute if it turns out that Vasi is more injured than the organization is leading everyone to believe. His injury is bringing the weakest part of the organization out front and center, as there is no long term proven replacement for Vasi anywhere in the organization. The backups are just that, backups signed to provide relief for 15 to 20 games this season and cannot be relied on to provide significant long term quality goaltending like we have become used to with Vasi.

 

[Todd1a]

Just offer him 6.5 AAV for 4 years that’s currently what he making this year anyway then won’t be a pay cut be done with it offer him 6.5 per year now and tell him if he wants more then he has to wait till the summer.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Brayden point 82 points in 82 career playoff games

K

Kucherov 142 career playoff games and 160 career playoff points

I mean, you're comparing him to maybe the 2 biggest playoff performers in the sport. And, 2 players with a larger cap hit than him.

The "Stamkos is bad in the playoffs" narrative is frankly tiring. He doesn't produce at his regular season rate. Few players do, though. He's still a hell of a contributor most of the time.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

It was only really in 2022 where he stepped up and played up to his level during the playoffs. Every other postseason that I can remember, most of his production came on the power play, he was nowhere near the factor at 5v5 that you wish he was...I realize how unfair it is to point out one particular thing, but he had a breakaway in Game 6 against the Blackhawks when the game was still 0-0, if he'd been able to score that, could've led to an entirely different outcome in that game. Kinda felt like a battleship sinking moment when he was denied.

If we're pointing to individual moments, in the last couple years he was also:
- The only player to score in game 6 against Colorado when we were eliminated
- The only player to score in game 6 against Toronto when we were eliminated
- The only player to score (twice) against the Rangers to avoid game 7 and propel us to the SCF

All of these were even strength, too.

Hell, since that 2015 run Stamkos has scored as many goals in games we were eliminated as the rest of the team combined. And on a per game basis, he's still our third most productive player in this era, even if roughly half his points are on the power play.

 

[The Gongshow]

Stamkos to the florida panthers makes a lot of sense they could offer Stamkos a 5 year contract for 8.5 AAV and he still plays on a contender and maybe a way better team then the lightning

I'd vomit

 

[Stammertime91]

Guess I'll have to leave if he does.