It's easier to stay at the top than it is too get there. Once you are a good team, you usually have your top end guys (Sedin's, Datsyuk, Thornton/Marleau, Elias/Brodeur) in hand, then you can fill out with smart drafting, good depth, big bold moves even. It's way easier at the top. So let's just throw out those, we need to get there, is the brunt of the discussion.
Honestly, I think it was garret that did the analysis, but picks 6-15 don't tend to have that much difference in terms of success. My point is that it is very very hard to build a team with those picks. So 5 straight "top 10" picks is more a statement of problems, than it is of anything real. Teams get stuck there for a LONG LONG time (ie FLA, CLB, TOR, etc, etc), making it hard to move out of there.
I completely understand, nor would I be advocated a complete scorched earth Edmonton style. That does not serve, hell for all the talk I STILL don't think that team is going anywhere, they are very very poorly built for NHL hockey (dominate in shiny hockey though), it's just a mismanaged **** organization they have.
Good well built teams have done a "hit and run" and the bottom. Good teams tend to have 1-2 years in the complete tank (bottom 5) then do a quick turnaround back out of it. They don't always completely rely on those bottom picks either, but they do add some top end talent to go with solid drafting elsewhere. They do 1-2 years at the bottom, 1 AT MOST 2 sitting just outside playoffs, then 1-3 years as playoff fodder, before taking the step to Stanley Cup. Carolina did it. Anaheim did it. Pittsburgh did it. Chicago did it. Boston did it. Los Angeles did it. The key was they did not get stuck in the middle at the barely missing playoffs stage. Teams like Columbus, Florida, Toronto did, and they got nowhere.
Atlanta started the rebuild well. Kane and Bogosian were fine. Difference was the failed on all levels to rebuild the prospect pool elsewhere whether it be via trades (Esposito
) or through the second-seventh rounds. That is what is killing us now. That is the problem, even if our drafting/development is better, by the time the Jets guys begin to pay dividends it is far too late, unless we manage to start coming out of this now, so that guys like Lowry, Pasquale, Yuen, Olsen, etc will be stepping into complementary roles and proper roles cheaply to supplement the already established talent.
Yet how is the hell is that different than right now? Right now they must have a terrible supporting cast since they can't make playoffs as it is.
Edmonton's all out scorched earth was flawed from the start, no doubt on that account. I talked about it above, that's one organization I would never emulate, EVER.
But all the championship teams have followed a STRIKINGLY similar pattern since the cap has been brought in. That is what the ATL franchise tried to do, but they have failed, mostly due to depth and being just average with their picks, not great, to take that next step. Jets are in real danger of being stuck in medicrity if progress is not made NOW.
You are talking about most of our core being ~30 while taking the FIRST STEPS into playoff action. By the time we should be taking steps into Stanley Cup contention, we looking at a core around 30-33, not feasible. That's also when the young guys will be getting big raises, to go with all major players being UFA eligible...it'll never work, IMO. It's just too late at that point. They should already by a SC team. You don't just turn it around in your late twenties and go from missing playoffs to Stanley Cup contenders, you need to show the steps towards progress, or you become Toronto.
If serious progress into playoff fodder team is not made, it's time for a serious retooling. I am not talking selling the team, sucking for years and years for first overall picks, but clearly this group is not a winning group. I know it's only "year 2" of Winnipeg Jets hockey, but this group has been here and is not getting the job done. What moves need to be made? Not really sure, this core still has a little time to show they can be it. But not much, and the clock is ticking very very fast.
I am not happy with mediocrity. I want a Stanley Cup. If this team is far enough out of it by the deadline that they are considering selling Antropov and Hainsey, then Pavelec, Byfuglien, Enstrom, Little, hell even Kane and Burmistrov might be on the block, IMO. Not saying you sell all of them, but time for a retooling for sure.