So how do we look?

[jiho]

I didn't think they were that bad.

GST was a mess and the PK was bad, but the rest of the team really wasn't.

Pearn should help the PK.

Byfuglien is a joke when he is on the ice. He has no awareness of anything going on in our zone. Sometimes he is in the high slot waiting to move up ice when we do not even have the puck.

 

[knorthern knight]

The decision about Scheifele will depend on how strong the rest of the lineup isn't. During the 2011 training camp and October games, it was obvious that he needed another 1 or 2 junior seasons under his belt. With the re-signing of Wellwood in the off-season, I figured that Schiefele was out of luck this season due to a simple numbers game at centre.

Fast-forward to January 2013; Schiefele has another season and a half under his belt. I can see how he and Meech and a few AHL tweeners in mid-season form could walk all over some regulars who haven't played a game in 9 months. If I were coach and GM, I'd want to keep Schiefele for the maximum (9 ?) games before deciding. Can Mark play LW or RW if necessary? I have a feeling we're going to be needing Meech on defense this season, so no winger play from him.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Much of the Jets' prospects for making the playoffs this year were tied to the development of the young stars - Kane, Burmistrov, Bogosian and even Pavelec. Unfortunately, because of the lockout, it is not likely to be a good year for development.

Their propsects now rest on Jokinen and Poni, and above average health. They're a fringe playoff team. I'd give them 5:2 odds of slipping into the dance.

 

[Boreal]

I would like us to make the playoffs. I do not expect us to make the playoffs. However, this is also not the worst year to miss the playoffs, if that is what things come to as the draft looks quite strong.

I'm just excited to see the guys lace 'em up again.

 

[garret9]

True, the defensive schemes were obviously looked over and changed with the coaching staff. There were several games where it looked eerily close to the Thrashers defensively though. In fact, that, together with the fact that shot totalt were actually down this past year, may not have helped the overall save% much.

I know some examples:

One particularly bad Pitsburgh game
Game against Vancouver

but over all the Jets' were better defensively relatively which should improve Pav's sv% relatively...

That being said I too put this season's weight on his shoulders for a two reasons. One, if he is our MVP than a lot of the weight should be on him, logically. Two and biggest one, (baring major defensive injuries) with a true shutdown line and another year in a more defensive system, the excuses will gone and this will be Pavelec's year to prove he can reach his potential.

I do not care what the stats say. The Jets were brutal in their own end. I hope Perry Pearn has some say in improving that area of the team.

I don't care about the results!! I care about small but significant memories about what I remember...
Sorry, I don't mean to **** on you but stats are for a reason.
They don't lie to us like our own psyche's tend to, especially biased fan ones.
Problem with stats is poor interpretation or small sample sizes...

but it's common knowledge that:

*Pavelec's value is in his potential not his current abilities
*His major assets are size and athleticism, but his weaknesses are conditioning, positioning and consistency... this can spell out anywhere between S.Mason and Quick, depending if he can improve those weaknesses
*He's not an above-average starter and his workload was not that bad last season

 

[Inflict]

If our young players continue to improve and our goaltending is good, I think we will make the playoffs. I don't think we have a chance of taking the division, so a bottom 6-8 playoff spot is our only hope. That being said, if we are only facing eastern conference teams this year, I think our chances are pretty good.

 

[KingBogo]

Much of the Jets' prospects for making the playoffs this year were tied to the development of the young stars - Kane, Burmistrov, Bogosian and even Pavelec. Unfortunately, because of the lockout, it is not likely to be a good year for development.

Their propsects now rest on Jokinen and Poni, and above average health. They're a fringe playoff team. I'd give them 5:2 odds of slipping into the dance.

That seems to be pretty reasonable odds, though I would probably go a bit higher, maybe 3:1 or 7:2. We certainly have more forward depth, but the health of our defense with Bogo out to start the season is a big concern. And if Buff comes in heavy and out of shape (no proof of this) a short camp puts him at risk. Hopefully Redman or Postma can step up. Pav's play over seas is also a concern. If he isn't on the top of his game we are in trouble.

 

[SiouxPride]

I still don't know how most people think we have a decent team, our big guys under achieve like mad, and we have some of the worst depth based talent. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we pick even better then we did this past year. Have fun Pavalec.

 

[Telfo]

been so long since I have actually even thought about hockey outside of lockout nonsense.

my take is that sadly this team still resembles the many Thrashers teams before it. Not enough of an improvement to make the needed jump IMO. probably looking at an 8-11 finish.

Pavelec is a tease and has never convinced me he will take the next step and stop having terrible stretches of play.

The shortened season might be a benefit to this team as their pattern in recent years has always been a fast start and a 2nd half collapse.

 

[GJF]

Pavelec is a tease and has never convinced me he will take the next step and stop having terrible stretches of play.

The shortened season might be a benefit to this team as their pattern in recent years has always been a fast start and a 2nd half collapse.

That's the thing. I expect Pavelec to either have a great seasn with 92%+ because he goes hot early and rides it down the line to the playoffs, or he has a bad start and doesn't have a long enough season to turn the results around, starting at 87-89% and finishing at 90%.

I also think we're a 8-11 ranked team if it would be a 82 game season, but regarding to our tendency to be kinda streaky and our need to have Pavs to be good in the net, we either finish between 5-8 or 12-15. Either we rock or we stink like a sock.

Jeeesh I'm such a MC.

 

[puck stoppa]

Noel is probably wondering when he'll ever get to have a normal start to the season as his first two as the coach have been quite unique.

 

[ps241]

I know some examples:

One particularly bad Pitsburgh game
Game against Vancouver

but over all the Jets' were better defensively relatively which should improve Pav's sv% relatively...

That being said I too put this season's weight on his shoulders for a two reasons. One, if he is our MVP than a lot of the weight should be on him, logically. Two and biggest one, (baring major defensive injuries) with a true shutdown line and another year in a more defensive system, the excuses will gone and this will be Pavelec's year to prove he can reach his potential.




I don't care about the results!! I care about small but significant memories about what I remember...
Sorry, I don't mean to **** on you but stats are for a reason.
They don't lie to us like our own psyche's tend to, especially biased fan ones.
Problem with stats is poor interpretation or small sample sizes...

but it's common knowledge that:

*Pavelec's value is in his potential not his current abilities
*His major assets are size and athleticism, but his weaknesses are conditioning, positioning and consistency... this can spell out anywhere between S.Mason and Quick, depending if he can improve those weaknesses
*He's not an above-average starter and his workload was not that bad last season

spot on and it's what keeps me up at night (well not really but it would if I was a worrier)

Great raw skills with substandard work ethic for a player who is the gatekeeper of our most critical position and the one guy who could single handedly keep us out of a playoff spot.

garret what SV % and GAA would be "good enough" and should we be hoping for IYHO.

 

[mzappa]

BOGO is skating and practicing!

Check the pic on the WFP website!

 

[Beavski24]

Kane Little Wheeler - I really like this line and feel even it could be kane oli and wheel
Ladd Oli Burmi - kane and ladd can be changed burmi could get swapped with welly
Poni Antro Welly - gurantee poni and antro are going to play together
Fehr Corms Miettin
Slater (scratch)
Thorburn (scratch)

Enstrom Buff
Bogo Stuart
Hainsly Clitsome

Pavs ( I know you guys are doubting him but hes going to be a beast this year)
I also feel we are going to move alot at the trade deadline but do you not agree that
Pavs+ Kane+Wheeler+Ladd+Buff are the corner stones of this team?

 

[hanrahan]

im thinking how does dustin byfuglien look at this point? saw very interesting photo of him from the summer he looked very fat.

 

[SCP Guy]

Will you guys STOP talking about hockey!!! I want to get back to the fun CBA talk so quit it

 

[garret9]

spot on and it's what keeps me up at night (well not really but it would if I was a worrier)

Great raw skills with substandard work ethic for a player who is the gatekeeper of our most critical position and the one guy who could single handedly keep us out of a playoff spot.

garret what SV % and GAA would be "good enough" and should we be hoping for IYHO.

GAA is tough because GAA is really team + goalie dependent... while SV% is more goalie with a tiny bit of team dependent (with few minor exceptions).

I don't really want to give the punchline away to an AIH article I've been writing... but if you change NOTHING else but Pavelec's sv% to league average (so 0.906 to 0.915... that's league average... not just starter average (which is a bit higher)) that translates to just over 20 goals against reduced... gone... poof... which approximately equates to 3-5 extra wins depending on where they fall (so 6-10 extra points) and a better GF/GA differential than Florida or Washington (playoff teams).

This doesn't add in the extra factors such as psychological factors of turning some clear loses to close games, turning some close loses into OT where we get a point and maybe a chance for a few extra OTW wins, turning OT loses into regulation wins, etc. (see domino effect)

It also doesn't factor that one of the main teams we were fought for the last playoff spot was one of Pavs worse performances...
Pavelec vs. Ottawa Senators:
3GP 0W 3L 13GA 4.46GAA 0.865sv%

So, if you add in this year a true shutdown line (Poni+Antro+Burmi > Glass+Slater+Thor) and hopefully less defensive injuries reducing Stuart's time intop 4 (15 goals against with Bogosian, 15 goals against with Byfuglien)... And then give Pavelec a 0.915 (league avg last season), then you should get yourself a 5-8 playoff team spot with all other things being equal.

 

[ps241]

GAA is tough because GAA is really team + goalie dependent... while SV% is more goalie with a tiny bit of team dependent (with few minor exceptions).

I don't really want to give the punchline away to an AIH article I've been writing... but if you change NOTHING else but Pavelec's sv% to league average (so 0.906 to 0.915... that's league average... not just starter average (which is a bit higher)) that translates to just over 20 goals against reduced... gone... poof... which approximately equates to 3-5 extra wins depending on where they fall (so 6-10 extra points) and a better GF/GA differential than Florida or Washington (playoff teams).

This doesn't add in the extra factors such as psychological factors of turning some clear loses to close games, turning some close loses into OT where we get a point and maybe a chance for a few extra OTW wins, turning OT loses into regulation wins, etc. (see domino effect)

It also doesn't factor that one of the main teams we were fought for the last playoff spot was one of Pavs worse performances...
Pavelec vs. Ottawa Senators:
3GP 0W 3L 13GA 4.46GAA 0.865sv%

So, if you add in this year a true shutdown line (Poni+Antro+Burmi > Glass+Slater+Thor) and hopefully less defensive injuries reducing Stuart's time intop 4 (15 goals against with Bogosian, 15 goals against with Byfuglien)... And then give Pavelec a 0.915 (league avg last season), then you should get yourself a 5-8 playoff team spot with all other things being equal.

great response!! thx G

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Kane Little Wheeler - I really like this line and feel even it could be kane oli and wheel
Ladd Oli Burmi - kane and ladd can be changed burmi could get swapped with welly
Poni Antro Welly - gurantee poni and antro are going to play together
Fehr Corms Miettin
Slater (scratch)
Thorburn (scratch)

Enstrom Buff
Bogo Stuart
Hainsly Clitsome

Pavs ( I know you guys are doubting him but hes going to be a beast this year)
I also feel we are going to move alot at the trade deadline but do you not agree that
Pavs+ Kane+Wheeler+Ladd+Buff are the corner stones of this team?

Fehr's not signed (UFA), I personnally seriously doubt he will join the Jets this year...

And if we are in a position where we are forced to sell a lot of players at the trade deadline this year, this core, including all of the above mentioned names, are not good enough to move forward with. Time to tear it down and start over, this team needs to make playoffs this year and show some improvement, if we want a Stanley Cup contending team in a few years during the peak of this roster...otherwise we are going to be merely a career playoff contending team. All Stanley Cup winners in recent history (other than Detroit who has been good forever) had a couple of years at the bottom (ie ATL 08 and 09), but then very very quickly moved into playoff contention/bottom end playoff team, then after a year or two of that to Stanley Cup contender then a year after that Stanley Cup winner. Every team. Meanwhile ATLWPG has failed to progress from borderline but still easily missing playoff team...teams like LA rebuilt during the same period (Doughty + Schenn versus Bogosian + Kane)...

 

[truck]

Fehr's not signed (UFA), I personnally seriously doubt he will join the Jets this year...

And if we are in a position where we are forced to sell a lot of players at the trade deadline this year, this core, including all of the above mentioned names, are not good enough to move forward with. Time to tear it down and start over, this team needs to make playoffs this year and show some improvement, if we want a Stanley Cup contending team in a few years during the peak of this roster...otherwise we are going to be merely a career playoff contending team. All Stanley Cup winners in recent history (other than Detroit who has been good forever) had a couple of years at the bottom (ie ATL 08 and 09), but then very very quickly moved into playoff contention/bottom end playoff team, then after a year or two of that to Stanley Cup contender then a year after that Stanley Cup winner. Every team. Meanwhile ATLWPG has failed to progress from borderline but still easily missing playoff team...teams like LA rebuilt during the same period (Doughty + Schenn versus Bogosian + Kane)...

I wouldn't call it a playoffs or bust scenario for this core. It is a short season, anything can happen. The Jets are already without Bogo, another injury or another year of inconsistent goaltending could easily tank an otherwise decent team.

I wanna see how things go before I call for youngsters to be moved.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I wouldn't call it a playoffs or bust scenario for this core. It is a short season, anything can happen. The Jets are already without Bogo, another injury or another year of inconsistent goaltending could easily tank an otherwise decent team.

I wanna see how things go before I call for youngsters to be moved.

History is littered with teams that had potential but got bogged down in the EXACT spot the ATL/WPG franchise has been in for a few years now...9-12, doing nothing, not getting better. Littered. Good teams progress through that range quickly, the Jets are already been in that range too long, another year and this core will not get it done. Barring a miracle pull out of the hat for the first overall pick, you won't get the talent you need to progress, and after this long in this range the talent in the system will not improve enough long term to take the Jets to the levels I want them to be at. I don't care that's it's a short season, this is a do or die season for this group, IMO. I want a Stanley Cup contender, not a playoff contender. The steps have to start now or they will never happen with this group.

 

[sully1410]

History is littered with teams that had potential but got bogged down in the EXACT spot the ATL/WPG franchise has been in for a few years now...9-12, doing nothing, not getting better. Littered. Good teams progress through that range quickly, the Jets are already been in that range too long, another year and this core will not get it done. Barring a miracle pull out of the hat for the first overall pick, you won't get the talent you need to progress, and after this long in this range the talent in the system will not improve enough long term to take the Jets to the levels I want them to be at. I don't care that's it's a short season, this is a do or die season for this group, IMO. I want a Stanley Cup contender, not a playoff contender. The steps have to start now or they will never happen with this group.

Hear hear. That is part of the reason why resigning wellwood pissed me off

 

[truck]

History is littered with teams that had potential but got bogged down in the EXACT spot the ATL/WPG franchise has been in for a few years now...9-12, doing nothing, not getting better. Littered. Good teams progress through that range quickly, the Jets are already been in that range too long, another year and this core will not get it done. Barring a miracle pull out of the hat for the first overall pick, you won't get the talent you need to progress, and after this long in this range the talent in the system will not improve enough long term to take the Jets to the levels I want them to be at. I don't care that's it's a short season, this is a do or die season for this group, IMO. I want a Stanley Cup contender, not a playoff contender. The steps have to start now or they will never happen with this group.

I think that is a really simplistic view.

Sure, Chi and Pit hit the jackpot with top picks, but that isn't the only way to success.

The Thrash/Jets have had 5 straight top 10 picks and they all appear to be developing well. Those picks include a couple top 5 picks in Kane & Bogo that look like potential stars. Unless that group falls apart, I don't think we need to panic.

Vancouver, NJ, Phi and Detroit are perennial contenders and they aren't relying exclusively on top 10 picks. Sure the Sedins are big factor for Van and Doughty is big for LA, but depth is the key to all of those teams. Smart management, smart drafting, good goaltending and a little bit of luck is what it takes to win a cup.

 

[truck]

History is littered with teams that had potential but got bogged down in the EXACT spot the ATL/WPG franchise has been in for a few years now...9-12, doing nothing, not getting better. Littered. Good teams progress through that range quickly, the Jets are already been in that range too long, another year and this core will not get it done. Barring a miracle pull out of the hat for the first overall pick, you won't get the talent you need to progress, and after this long in this range the talent in the system will not improve enough long term to take the Jets to the levels I want them to be at. I don't care that's it's a short season, this is a do or die season for this group, IMO. I want a Stanley Cup contender, not a playoff contender. The steps have to start now or they will never happen with this group.

I would like to add...

Two 50+ (preferably 60+) point centres appears to be the real key to building a contender. That keeps teams from keying on an shutting down your scoring in the playoffs and decreases the odds of a slump KOing your team.

Whether you get them in the 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round, the 7th round or via trade doesn't seem to matter.

All I want two elite scoring lines, some solid D and depth.

 

[allan5oh]

I've read some pretty in depth analysis on contenders, and it seems as though the third line is usually the key line, because the first two tend to cancel each other out on great teams.

But you're right, you need basically two really good lines that click, and a well above average third line.