So how do we look?

[Sweech]

VUKOTA thinks our Jets look like a fringe playoff team:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1422

Which is what we all pretty much knew.

 

[sully1410]

Ladd is part of the core, but you can't expect him to be anymore then he is now, same can be said for little(maybe), enstrom, and probably byfuglien. These are sort of the supporting cast of your core. Here's to hoping wheelers last season won't be his career season.

I think this is a playoff caliber team, provided Pavelec is league average or better.

If kane & bogo find the next level, we're a playoff caliber team regardless of pav.

In short, to me, this teams progression relies on Kane, Bogo, and Pavelec all pushing themselves into the next echelon of players. If all three of these players can become what we hope (65+ pt scoring winger, franchise d man, above average starter), then we are not only a playoff team, but one that can go deep.

It all comes down to Are Kane, Bogo, and Pavelec Actually difference makers? If not, we've got to get some, either by blowing up and tanking, or finagling some miracle trades.

I'm not sure I agree. Ladd has consistently improved on his seasons as time has gone on. The Sedins didn't become the all stars they are now until very recently. Ladd is like our Trevor Linden right now, and he led an unlikely seventh seeded canuck team to the finals. Defensemen get better, or at least stay the same and enjoy much longer careers then forwards do.

Guys like Buff and Toby and Ladd are going to be the huge difference makers come playoff time, and thats really whats its about.

 

[Grind]

VUKOTA thinks our Jets look like a fringe playoff team:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1422

that's pretty much in line with my expectation.

A jump in development to a couple key players and i think were a solid palyoff team.

 

[Grind]

I'm not sure I agree. Ladd has consistently improved on his seasons as time has gone on. The Sedins didn't become the all stars they are now until very recently. Ladd is like our Trevor Linden right now, and he led an unlikely seventh seeded canuck team to the finals. Defensemen get better, or at least stay the same and enjoy much longer careers then forwards do.

Guys like Buff and Toby and Ladd are going to be the huge difference makers come playoff time, and thats really whats its about.

so in your opinion then, our upper echelon of "core" players is who? Ladd, Wheeler, Toby and Buff?

If that's the case, and you could definitely argue that, then i agree with holden that our window is shrinking pretty quickly, you've essentially got 4 years before those players should be regressing. These players are in their prime, so they do need to make the playoffs now. If not, and we're assuming these are who our fortunes rest on, not Kane, bogo, and pavs, then i'm more in HC's camp- these 4 guys aren't spring chickens.

I guess i see these guys as the supporting cast to the "high end" of Kane and Bogo and wheeler. I think its reasonable to hope for large growth out of Kane and bogo, its a little less reasonable to hope for dramatic improvement from ladd and company (dramatic for a forward being an increase of 15-20 pts).

 

[truck]

Which is what we all pretty much knew.

NJ and Phx in the lottery and the Leafs in the playoffs were a bit of a surprise.

 

[roccerfeller]

Can't believe there's gonna be a season this year! We are looking good!

Short season will be interesting.

Anyone gauge as to how many pts we'd need to make a playoff run this year?

 

[sully1410]

so in your opinion then, our upper echelon of "core" players is who? Ladd, Wheeler, Toby and Buff?

If that's the case, and you could definitely argue that, then i agree with holden that our window is shrinking pretty quickly, you've essentially got 4 years before those players should be regressing. These players are in their prime, so they do need to make the playoffs now. If not, and we're assuming these are who our fortunes rest on, not Kane, bogo, and pavs, then i'm more in HC's camp- these 4 guys aren't spring chickens.

I guess i see these guys as the supporting cast to the "high end" of Kane and Bogo and wheeler. I think its reasonable to hope for large growth out of Kane and bogo, its a little less reasonable to hope for dramatic improvement from ladd and company (dramatic for a forward being an increase of 15-20 pts).

What is this upper Echlon? Alot of the players that you said are supporting cast are here for years to come. I agree that Pavs, Bogo and Kane are going to shape the team moving forward, and will hopefully be high end talent. That being said the players that are on this roster right now are difference makers and a few them ARE high end talent.

Ladd is one of the best at what he does. Buff is a wild card and a huge difference maker on the ice. Toby is consistent and highly skilled.

No matter how you slice it, these are core members of the team that are going to be essential once we do make a serious cup run.

I don't think you can classify a upper Echlon.

You say that those guys aren't spring chickens, but it's not like their over the hill. They 're in their mid to late twenties, and it's not like hockey players turn into pumpkins or something when they hit 30.

And Pavs is 25. That's almost the same age as Ladd is.

 

[Grind]

What is this upper Echlon? Alot of the players that you said are supporting cast are here for years to come. I agree that Pavs, Bogo and Kane are going to shape the team moving forward, and will hopefully be high end talent. That being said the players that are on this roster right now are difference makers and a few them ARE high end talent.

Ladd is one of the best at what he does. Buff is a wild card and a huge difference maker on the ice. Toby is consistent and highly skilled.

No matter how you slice it, these are core members of the team that are going to be essential once we do make a serious cup run.

I don't think you can classify a upper Echlon.

You say that those guys aren't spring chickens, but it's not like their over the hill. They 're in their mid to late twenties, and it's not like hockey players turn into pumpkins or something when they hit 30.

And Pavs is 25. That's almost the same age as Ladd is.

sorry i feel like i'm not explaining myself correctly.

put it this way:

towves, Kane, Keith
Kopitar, Doughty, quick
Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, thomas standing on his head
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang,

Would you actually consider winnipegs 3-4 best players to be able to hold a match to these guys?- I wouldn't. Furthermore, if we assume they are, then why haven't they been able to push us into the playoffs yet? If I follow that assumption then i'm with Holden, take the step now or we should look for someone who can.

So far, the only one who gets in that conversation, IMO is Wheeler maybe one of our d men.

then look at these names:
Sharp, Hossa, seabrook
Brown, richards, Carter
Lucic, Horton, Seidenberg
...fleury...pittsburg was different....

I would say our top 4 players, fit more with this second category.

they are also old enough, that expecting them to improve enoguht to break into the top category, seems less likely to me then players such as Kane and Bogo breaking into that category.

I fully believe the team we have is a playoff team, but its 2 players at a talent level above ladds (IMO) away from actually being a contender. and that begets the question of where are those players going to come from?

also, the pavelec being the same age as ladd is exactly the point- If pavelec can't put it together this year, or at least show marked signs of improvement, then we need to find a new tender, simple as that.

If were relying on ladd to be a top flight first line winger, then he's got to do it this season.

if were relying on Buf to be a top 10 all around d man, then he's got to do it this season.

If were relying on Kane and Bogo to fill those positions, IMO, they have the track to give us a season or two to get there. That's all i'm saying. I look at our team and i don't see 3-4 players who can tangle with the top 3-4 players from the usual contenders, based of their play last year. IMO we need those players, and either we have them in a year or two from kane or bogo, we have them this year from Ladd/etc, or we don't have them at all.

 

[jetkarma*]

20 teams within 5 points. pretty much says it all.

From 10 to 29 ... in other words we have no real idea , just don't count on making the playoffs if your goaltending and team defence is significantly below the calibre of most other teams.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

Don't tell me there are already rumblings about his weight, thought maybe after last season the guy would maybe get it by now.

Those rumblings are coming from the floor he's standing on.

 

[truck]

sorry i feel like i'm not explaining myself correctly.

put it this way:

towves, Kane, Keith
Kopitar, Doughty, quick
Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, thomas standing on his head
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang,

Would you actually consider winnipegs 3-4 best players to be able to hold a match to these guys?- I wouldn't. Furthermore, if we assume they are, then why haven't they been able to push us into the playoffs yet? If I follow that assumption then i'm with Holden, take the step now or we should look for someone who can.

So far, the only one who gets in that conversation, IMO is Wheeler maybe one of our d men.

then look at these names:
Sharp, Hossa, seabrook
Brown, richards, Carter
Lucic, Horton, Seidenberg
...fleury...pittsburg was different....

I would say our top 4 players, fit more with this second category.

they are also old enough, that expecting them to improve enoguht to break into the top category, seems less likely to me then players such as Kane and Bogo breaking into that category.

I fully believe the team we have is a playoff team, but its 2 players at a talent level above ladds (IMO) away from actually being a contender. and that begets the question of where are those players going to come from?

also, the pavelec being the same age as ladd is exactly the point- If pavelec can't put it together this year, or at least show marked signs of improvement, then we need to find a new tender, simple as that.

If were relying on ladd to be a top flight first line winger, then he's got to do it this season.

if were relying on Buf to be a top 10 all around d man, then he's got to do it this season.

If were relying on Kane and Bogo to fill those positions, IMO, they have the track to give us a season or two to get there. That's all i'm saying. I look at our team and i don't see 3-4 players who can tangle with the top 3-4 players from the usual contenders, based of their play last year. IMO we need those players, and either we have them in a year or two from kane or bogo, we have them this year from Ladd/etc, or we don't have them at all.

I remember watching our guys vs Chicago and thinking they have 4 forwards that would instantly be our best player. Wheeler breaking out makes it 3-4ish, but yeah... We need growth from Evander and another star from somewhere (free agency, Burmi, Scheifele, Olli short term) could be fixes.

 

[Gm0ney]

Last season, the Jets had the best record in the South East Division vs. SE Division opponents (14-6-4, .667). They also had the 9th best record in the East against Eastern Conference opponents (29-26-9, .523).

vs. SE:

Southeast | W | L | T | P | PPCT Winnipeg |14| 6| 4| 32| .667
Tampa Bay |13| 7| 4| 30| .625
Florida |12| 8| 4| 28| .583
Washington |12| 8| 4| 28| .583
Carolina | 9|10| 5| 23| .479

vs. Eastern Conference:

Eastern | W | L | T | P | PPCT
NY Rangers |41|18|5|87| .680
New Jersey |38|22|4|80| .625
Pittsburgh |38|23|3|79| .617
Boston |38|23|3|79| .617
Philadelphia |36|21|7|79| .617
Florida |33|19|12|78| .609
Washington |34|22|8|76| .594
Ottawa |34|22|8|76| .594
Winnipeg |29|26|9|67| .523
Buffalo |28|26|10|66| .516
Tampa Bay |29|29|6|64| .500
Carolina |25|27|12|62| .484
NY Islanders |27|30|7|61| .476
Montreal |24|28|12|60| .469
Toronto |26|31|7|59| .461

If you take out their record against the SE Division, the Jets actually posted a 15-20-5 (35 points, .437), record against the rest of the East.

Assume the league plays a 48 game schedule with 20 games against non-division conference opponents (a home and home against each) and 24 games against divisional rivals (3 home, 3 away).

If that pattern were to hold up this season, the Jets would have a divisional record of 16-7-5, 37 points (.661) and a record of 5-8-7 (.425) or 5-7-8 (.450) vs the rest of the East for 17 or 18 points. So an overall record of (let's use the optimistic 5-7-8 record vs. the East) 21-14-13, 55 points, .573.

Ottawa took the final Eastern playoff spot with a .561 points percentage, or a 48 game equivalent of 54 points. LA took the final Western spot with a .579 points percentage...a equivalent of 56 points in a 48 game schedule. So 54-55 points will be in the range for that 8th playoff spot.

 

[truck]

Last season, the Jets had the best record in the South East Division vs. SE Division opponents (14-6-4, .667). They also had the 9th best record in the East against Eastern Conference opponents (29-26-9, .523).

vs. SE:

Southeast | W | L | T | P | PPCT Winnipeg |14| 6| 4| 32| .667
Tampa Bay |13| 7| 4| 30| .625
Florida |12| 8| 4| 28| .583
Washington |12| 8| 4| 28| .583
Carolina | 9|10| 5| 23| .479

vs. Eastern Conference:

Eastern | W | L | T | P | PPCT
NY Rangers |41|18|5|87| .680
New Jersey |38|22|4|80| .625
Pittsburgh |38|23|3|79| .617
Boston |38|23|3|79| .617
Philadelphia |36|21|7|79| .617
Florida |33|19|12|78| .609
Washington |34|22|8|76| .594
Ottawa |34|22|8|76| .594
Winnipeg |29|26|9|67| .523
Buffalo |28|26|10|66| .516
Tampa Bay |29|29|6|64| .500
Carolina |25|27|12|62| .484
NY Islanders |27|30|7|61| .476
Montreal |24|28|12|60| .469
Toronto |26|31|7|59| .461

If you take out their record against the SE Division, the Jets actually posted a 15-20-5 (35 points, .437), record against the rest of the East.

Assume the league plays a 48 game schedule with 20 games against non-division conference opponents (a home and home against each) and 24 games against divisional rivals (3 home, 3 away).

If that pattern were to hold up this season, the Jets would have a divisional record of 16-7-5, 37 points (.661) and a record of 5-8-7 (.425) or 5-7-8 (.450) vs the rest of the East for 17 or 18 points. So an overall record of (let's use the optimistic 5-7-8 record vs. the East) 21-14-13, 55 points, .573.

Ottawa took the final Eastern playoff spot with a .561 points percentage, or a 48 game equivalent of 54 points. LA took the final Western spot with a .579 points percentage...a equivalent of 56 points in a 48 game schedule. So 54-55 points will be in the range for that 8th playoff spot.

The experts are saying:

5 games vs 2 in your division
4 games vs 2 in your division
3 games vs the rest of the conference

 

[Grind]

I remember watching our guys vs Chicago and thinking they have 4 forwards that would instantly be our best player. Wheeler breaking out makes it 3-4ish, but yeah... We need growth from Evander and another star from somewhere (free agency, Burmi, Scheifele, Olli short term) could be fixes.

Yah, that's pretty much what i'm saying. We need those players. We might have them in Kane/schiefel/joki/burmi/bogo/etc but it might take a year or two for that to show up. As for ladd, little, pavelec, byfuglien, if they're going to be players who you make the "best player on the ice for both teams" conversation hard, they need to do it this year.

 

[truck]

Yah, that's pretty much what i'm saying. We need those players. We might have them in Kane/schiefel/joki/burmi/bogo/etc but it might take a year or two for that to show up. As for ladd, little, pavelec, byfuglien, if they're going to be players who you make the "best player on the ice for both teams" conversation hard, they need to do it this year.

Buff is that player some of the time.

I still wonder if the defensive side of his game has much room for growth.

 

[Grind]

Buff is that player some of the time.

I still wonder if the defensive side of his game has much room for growth.

IMO Buff is the only one of the "old" core who can do it. Honestly, if his transition game got to that of an average 3rd/4th defensemen, he'd be one of those players, or if he could do what he does every game.

I think the most likely scenario is we end up with Enstrom Buff and Bogo all being that type of defencemen, and one becomes the odd man out and is moved for help at forward.

this would happen in the magically hypothetical future season where we are dominating the regular season and making a move for a cup.

 

[Gm0ney]

The experts are saying:

5 games vs 2 in your division
4 games vs 2 in your division
3 games vs the rest of the conference

Ah, well, then...that would knock a few points off, all else being equal. 10-4-4 = 24 (.667) vs. SE Div. and 10-14-6 = 26 points (.433) vs. the rest of the East. 50 points.

The Jets are going to have a gruelling travel schedule, too.

 

[truck]

Ah, well, then...that would knock a few points off, all else being equal. 10-4-4 = 24 (.667) vs. SE Div. and 10-14-6 = 26 points (.433) vs. the rest of the East. 50 points.

The Jets are going to have a gruelling travel schedule, too.

It won't be much worse than last year as the eastern team haven't moved.

The Jets went 8-9-1 vs the west, so it isn't like they used those teams to pad their records.

 

[sully1410]

sorry i feel like i'm not explaining myself correctly.

put it this way:

towves, Kane, Keith
Kopitar, Doughty, quick
Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, thomas standing on his head
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang,

Would you actually consider winnipegs 3-4 best players to be able to hold a match to these guys?- I wouldn't. Furthermore, if we assume they are, then why haven't they been able to push us into the playoffs yet? If I follow that assumption then i'm with Holden, take the step now or we should look for someone who can.

So far, the only one who gets in that conversation, IMO is Wheeler maybe one of our d men.

then look at these names:
Sharp, Hossa, seabrook
Brown, richards, Carter
Lucic, Horton, Seidenberg
...fleury...pittsburg was different....

I would say our top 4 players, fit more with this second category.

they are also old enough, that expecting them to improve enoguht to break into the top category, seems less likely to me then players such as Kane and Bogo breaking into that category.

I fully believe the team we have is a playoff team, but its 2 players at a talent level above ladds (IMO) away from actually being a contender. and that begets the question of where are those players going to come from?

also, the pavelec being the same age as ladd is exactly the point- If pavelec can't put it together this year, or at least show marked signs of improvement, then we need to find a new tender, simple as that.

If were relying on ladd to be a top flight first line winger, then he's got to do it this season.

if were relying on Buf to be a top 10 all around d man, then he's got to do it this season.

If were relying on Kane and Bogo to fill those positions, IMO, they have the track to give us a season or two to get there. That's all i'm saying. I look at our team and i don't see 3-4 players who can tangle with the top 3-4 players from the usual contenders, based of their play last year. IMO we need those players, and either we have them in a year or two from kane or bogo, we have them this year from Ladd/etc, or we don't have them at all.

ok...I see what your saying now. derp derp.

100 percent agree with you.

 

[KingBogo]

sorry i feel like i'm not explaining myself correctly.

put it this way:

towves, Kane, Keith
Kopitar, Doughty, quick
Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, thomas standing on his head
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang,

Would you actually consider winnipegs 3-4 best players to be able to hold a match to these guys?- I wouldn't. Furthermore, if we assume they are, then why haven't they been able to push us into the playoffs yet? If I follow that assumption then i'm with Holden, take the step now or we should look for someone who can.

So far, the only one who gets in that conversation, IMO is Wheeler maybe one of our d men.

then look at these names:
Sharp, Hossa, seabrook
Brown, richards, Carter
Lucic, Horton, Seidenberg
...fleury...pittsburg was different....

I would say our top 4 players, fit more with this second category.

they are also old enough, that expecting them to improve enoguht to break into the top category, seems less likely to me then players such as Kane and Bogo breaking into that category.

I fully believe the team we have is a playoff team, but its 2 players at a talent level above ladds (IMO) away from actually being a contender. and that begets the question of where are those players going to come from?

also, the pavelec being the same age as ladd is exactly the point- If pavelec can't put it together this year, or at least show marked signs of improvement, then we need to find a new tender, simple as that.

If were relying on ladd to be a top flight first line winger, then he's got to do it this season.

if were relying on Buf to be a top 10 all around d man, then he's got to do it this season.

If were relying on Kane and Bogo to fill those positions, IMO, they have the track to give us a season or two to get there. That's all i'm saying. I look at our team and i don't see 3-4 players who can tangle with the top 3-4 players from the usual contenders, based of their play last year. IMO we need those players, and either we have them in a year or two from kane or bogo, we have them this year from Ladd/etc, or we don't have them at all.

Totally agree. Bogo and Kane have the potential to be elite, but are not quite there yet. As does Trouba based on his play at the WJC, and to a lesser extent we can still hope for Scheifele. The top end of our team would make a good supporting cast for a contender. This is no different then a lot of other teams. Our future still depends on our young potential stars and Chevy's ability to add to that.

 

[Guerzy]

sorry i feel like i'm not explaining myself correctly.

put it this way:

towves, Kane, Keith
Kopitar, Doughty, quick
Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, thomas standing on his head
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang,

Would you actually consider winnipegs 3-4 best players to be able to hold a match to these guys?- I wouldn't. Furthermore, if we assume they are, then why haven't they been able to push us into the playoffs yet? If I follow that assumption then i'm with Holden, take the step now or we should look for someone who can.

So far, the only one who gets in that conversation, IMO is Wheeler maybe one of our d men.

then look at these names:
Sharp, Hossa, seabrook
Brown, richards, Carter
Lucic, Horton, Seidenberg
...fleury...pittsburg was different....

I would say our top 4 players, fit more with this second category.

they are also old enough, that expecting them to improve enoguht to break into the top category, seems less likely to me then players such as Kane and Bogo breaking into that category.

I fully believe the team we have is a playoff team, but its 2 players at a talent level above ladds (IMO) away from actually being a contender. and that begets the question of where are those players going to come from?

also, the pavelec being the same age as ladd is exactly the point- If pavelec can't put it together this year, or at least show marked signs of improvement, then we need to find a new tender, simple as that.

If were relying on ladd to be a top flight first line winger, then he's got to do it this season.

if were relying on Buf to be a top 10 all around d man, then he's got to do it this season.

If were relying on Kane and Bogo to fill those positions, IMO, they have the track to give us a season or two to get there. That's all i'm saying. I look at our team and i don't see 3-4 players who can tangle with the top 3-4 players from the usual contenders, based of their play last year. IMO we need those players, and either we have them in a year or two from kane or bogo, we have them this year from Ladd/etc, or we don't have them at all.

Excellent post, Grind.

 

[truck]

Totally agree. Bogo and Kane have the potential to be elite, but are not quite there yet. As does Trouba based on his play at the WJC, and to a lesser extent we can still hope for Scheifele. The top end of our team would make a good supporting cast for a contender. This is no different then a lot of other teams. Our future still depends on our young potential stars and Chevy's ability to add to that.

Hopefully between Scheifele and Burmi we can add one dynamic top line centre to the mix.

 

[KingBogo]

Hopefully between Scheifele and Burmi we can add one dynamic top line centre to the mix.

We need to find one somewhere. It would be nice if we already had one in house. Of course there is always a chance to get Mackinnion if we fall short of the playoffs.

 

[Grind]

Totally agree. Bogo and Kane have the potential to be elite, but are not quite there yet. As does Trouba based on his play at the WJC, and to a lesser extent we can still hope for Scheifele. The top end of our team would make a good supporting cast for a contender. This is no different then a lot of other teams. Our future still depends on our young potential stars and Chevy's ability to add to that.

essentially that's what i've been trying to say. if were expecting our current top guys to be the top guys that take us all the way, were in for dissapointment.

Hopefully between Scheifele and Burmi we can add one dynamic top line centre to the mix.

Thats the hope. If all 4 (kane schief, burmi, bogo) show positive steps to moving to first line potential we are well set. if kane bogo and one of schief burmi can do it, were decent.

 

[McBrom7]

Hey Jets fans! Bruins guy here.

I had my fantasy draft tonight and drafted Evander Kane. I was watching his goal highlights and decided to look at your line combinations. I have too say, you guys look like a good team this year. There are question marks that I have, which comes with every team, like can Kane and Wheeler keep it up for you guys? Also Curious too see how Burmistrov and Scheifele progress.

Anyways, I hope you guys do well this year. I've always had a soft spot for Winnipeg because you guys always sell out and are so damn loud. Just makes the games fun too watch.

Cheers.