Confirmed with Link: [SJ/Buf] Evander Kane to Sharks for Dan O'Regan, Cndt'l 2019 1st, Cndt'l 2020 4th

[hohosaregood]

Yea definitely seems like there's mutual respect for and from Kane in our situation. Didn't really seem like the case previously, not that I know much of the situation in Buffalo.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The most interesting thing I take away from these stats, is that the seeming consensus from Buf fans, so far, has been to keep Kane away from players like Thornton/Eichel. Supposedly because he kills possession by shooting everything, and being selfish w/the puck in that regard.

These stats paint a very different picture, as both Kane and Eichel are both worse off away from each, than with each other...Hmmmmm

Also it seems like Kane is the better possession player, which does frankly surprise me a little with how he has been described. However without knowing who each of them played with, when not with each other, that may be due to QoT.

Needless to say, Im very interested to see how he fits in here.

Kane probably spent a good chunk of his time without Eichel playing with ROR who is a possession monster. Eichel also probably was always matched with top competition with or without Kane.

 

[Dicdonya]

Kane probably spent a good chunk of his time without Eichel playing with ROR who is a possession monster. Eichel also probably was always matched with top competition with or without Kane.

He does seem to play with RoR as center, next most to Eichel, about half as much.

However he makes both of their numbers go up, not down, possession wise, so I'm starting to believe he might be the cause of his own good possession, and not a drag as it seemed some others were implying about him.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He does seem to play with RoR as center, next most to Eichel, about half as much.

However he makes both of their numbers go up, not down, possession wise, so I'm starting to believe he might be the cause of his own good possession, and not a drag as it seemed some others were implying about him.

The thing is, possession is unequal to CF%. The idea might be that Kane does not possess the puck well and takes low percentage shots that result in a Corsi for while giving away possession.

However, important to note that CF% is a better predictor of future results than pure possession.

 

[Lebanezer]

From Lebrun’s athletic article.

For the Sharks to re-sign Kane, which clearly is an idea in the back of the mind of GM Doug Wilson otherwise he doesn’t make this trade, it will depend probably on how the player fits into a close-knit dressing room. The Sharks are giving Kane a clean slate.
And I love the idea of Kane potentially living with Joe Thornton for the rest of the season, something that was broached Monday after the deal. Not sure whether that will end up happening but I know it was discussed. No better role model for Kane than the future Hall of Famer.

Might be why jumbo picked him up.

 

[Woodhouse]

Still need to know anything on Kane or has it been sufficiently covered by other fans who persevered through the terrible servers?

 

[Coily]

The best thing for Kane at this time is to play hockey and for the media to stop discussing the past.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Still need to know anything on Kane or has it been sufficiently covered by other fans who persevered through the terrible servers?

I mean, more objective, thought out, well articulated performance reviews on Kane's time in Buffalo will always be appreciated.

 

[Dicdonya]

The thing is, possession is unequal to CF%. The idea might be that Kane does not possess the puck well and takes low percentage shots that result in a Corsi for while giving away possession.

However, important to note that CF% is a better predictor of future results than pure possession.

I'm not being snide I promise, but what else would I have been talking about for possession then CF, and stats like that?

When I say possession, I mean it as a general term for numbers like CF, FF, High danger scoring chances, etc. In other words, non scoring related stats.

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, I think we are agreeing here.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm not being snide I promise, but what else would I have been talking about for possession then CF, and stats like that?

When I say possession, I mean it as a general term for numbers like CF, FF, High danger scoring chances, etc. In other words, non scoring related stats.

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, I think we are agreeing here.

We are agreeing one the terms we use for possession but when Buffalo fans say it they might be referring to actual possession. They might be implying that Kane is not the best at cycling and sustaining possession at even strength.

Kind of like Brent Burns is one of the best Corsi players in the league because he attempts shots from everywhere but he actually isn't a great possession player.

 

[LadyStanley]

Jumbo is just "paying it forward" picking Kane up at airport. And helping make him feel welcome, part of the team.

Marleau met Jumbo at the airport in Buffalo when he joined the Sharks on the road after the 2005 trade.

(Jumbo's also one of the few guys who doesn't need a "full" night's sleep to be able to play tonight as he's on the IR. Kane may be playing a bit on adrenaline. )

 

[Barrie22]

Pretty sure thornton picked up heatley and campbell from the airport also.

 

[do0glas]

When meier overshot his numbers wrte great. But clearly hes a more dangerous player now.


So i have a tempered optimism with kane. Clearly his motor and shot have gotten him goals, but you want your whole line to be damgerous which his play can take them out of the game offensively.

Promising stats but what was the offensive output wowy

 

[Friday]

Pretty sure thornton picked up heatley and campbell from the airport also.

Bummer I thought that meant Kane would for sure resign haha Campbell wanted nothing to do with us.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

When meier overshot his numbers wrte great. But clearly hes a more dangerous player now.


So i have a tempered optimism with kane. Clearly his motor and shot have gotten him goals, but you want your whole line to be damgerous which his play can take them out of the game offensively.

Promising stats but what was the offensive output wowy

Meier's underlying numbers are also currently elite; better than Kane's. He still shoots a lot. He has improved his shot quality. Meier has the 2nd most shot attempts for, 2nd most unblocked shot attempts for, 2nd most high danger chances for, and he has by far the most individual scoring chances for at 5v5 of any Shark. Considering his deployment, especially to start the season, these numbers are just ridiculous.

On Buffalo, at even strength Kane had by far the most individual high danger chances for, by far the most scoring chances for, by far the most unblocked shot attempts for, and by far the most shot attempts for. Kane had 81 individual high danger scoring chances for at even strength. Pavelski leads our team this year with 79 individual high danger scoring chances for at even strength. In other words, Kane might shoot a lot, but he also takes a lot of high danger shots.

To add on, Evander Kane is 8th in the league in individual expected goals for at even strength. Despite not being a great PP guy, he is 14th in even individual expected goals for in all situations. This guy is a very high end goal scorer, player, plain and simple.

Kane's individual expected shooting percentage (on his unblocked shot attempts) on even strength is 6.88%, which is second on his team. This means the quality of his unblocked shots is not too bad. That number is nearly identical to Timo Meier's 6.92% which is only 10th on our team, lol.

 

[Woodhouse]

Kane's quick and a load to handle, so forecheck, cycle down low, and stuff/power/rebound attempts is where you want to see him on offense. It's also where he excels. While he does possess the speed to be dangerous on counters and PK, he doesn't have a great variety of success with sharing or dekes, so that's a bit of a mixed bag. You won't complain about the chances created, just lamenting them if line's beginning to waste too many. He also can pass decently well to danger areas, mainly off cycles and rushes, but no question has a tendency to be wasteful with a shoot-first mentality, as there are plenty of perimeter entry attempts and SOG from outside the dots that miss high, going around and out, killing possession that a bad team desperately needed. He seems to aim for the top corners frequently rather than hold-and-carry into the corner or shoot for rebounds. He never really was a screen guy here either, rebounds yes, but don't recall many deflections as that's strangely Reinhart's domain. I don't believe he's fought this year, keeping healthy for deadline, but there's that odd past game where he fought Petrovic three times. He's established in that regard and will do it if there's cause.

Also, regarding contract talks, one beat writer said this morning on local radio (mp3; seek to 11:43) Kane's ask was around $7M FWIW.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Kane's quick and a load to handle, so forecheck, cycle down low, and stuff/power/rebound attempts is where you want to see him on offense. It's also where he excels. While he does possess the speed to be dangerous on counters and PK, he doesn't have a great variety of success with sharing or dekes, so that's a bit of a mixed bag. You won't complain about the chances created, just lamenting them if line's beginning to waste too many. He also can pass decently well to danger areas, mainly off cycles and rushes, but no question has a tendency to be wasteful with a shoot-first mentality, as there are plenty of perimeter entry attempts and SOG from outside the dots that miss high, going around and out, killing possession that a bad team desperately needed. He seems to aim for the top corners frequently rather than hold-and-carry into the corner or shoot for rebounds. He never really was a screen guy here either, rebounds yes, but don't recall many deflections as that's strangely Reinhart's domain. I don't believe he's fought this year, keeping healthy for deadline, but there's that odd past game where he fought Petrovic three times. He's established in that regard and will do it if there's cause.

Also, regarding contract talks, one beat writer said this morning on local radio (mp3; seek to 11:43) Kane's ask was around $7M FWIW.

Thanks for the info. The bottom piece is particularly good to know.

If you were GM of a contending team with more than enough cap space, what would you offer Kane? Do you think he is worth 6M?

 

[Woodhouse]

Thanks for the info. The bottom piece is particularly good to know.

If you were GM of a contending team with more than enough cap space, what would you offer Kane? Do you think he is worth 6M?

I probably would be reluctant to go over $6M AAV and no more than a few years. I think his current $5.25M AAV is a fair valuation considering his production. Injuries, slumps, or incidents always seem to sour him from turning the kind of start he had to this season into a promising full season and beyond. On the other hand, it's only cap/money and you have to consider that with your alternatives in filling whatever wing spot.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

With his ability to play down low and in the slot, its no surprise he is paired with Pavs and Donkey.

 

[WSS11]

I

Bummer I thought that meant Kane would for sure resign haha Campbell wanted nothing to do with us.

I think Campbell was dead set on going to Chicago regardless of where he was traded to at the deadline.

 

[do0glas]

Meier's underlying numbers are also currently elite; better than Kane's. He still shoots a lot. He has improved his shot quality. Meier has the 2nd most shot attempts for, 2nd most unblocked shot attempts for, 2nd most high danger chances for, and he has by far the most individual scoring chances for at 5v5 of any Shark. Considering his deployment, especially to start the season, these numbers are just ridiculous.

On Buffalo, at even strength Kane had by far the most individual high danger chances for, by far the most scoring chances for, by far the most unblocked shot attempts for, and by far the most shot attempts for. Kane had 81 individual high danger scoring chances for at even strength. Pavelski leads our team this year with 79 individual high danger scoring chances for at even strength. In other words, Kane might shoot a lot, but he also takes a lot of high danger shots.

To add on, Evander Kane is 8th in the league in individual expected goals for at even strength. Despite not being a great PP guy, he is 14th in even individual expected goals for in all situations. This guy is a very high end goal scorer, player, plain and simple.

Kane's individual expected shooting percentage (on his unblocked shot attempts) on even strength is 6.88%, which is second on his team. This means the quality of his unblocked shots is not too bad. That number is nearly identical to Timo Meier's 6.92% which is only 10th on our team, lol.

So individually is not what i was speaking to.

With jack eichel they are 52% FF 46% GF

Eichel without Kane 45%FF 50%GF

Primary culprit is sh% dropping to 6% from 11%

Kane away from eichel doesnt see much change.

When eichel is away from kane, shots go wayyyy down but hdgf are the same.

So there is a real case that he needs to be the guy on his line to succeed. He may not be good at meshing with high skill guys. I hope im wrong and he will likely produce.

 

[Zip15]

Woodhouse pretty much covered it. I'll add that you'll want to take him off your PP1 ASAP. It's probably his worst phase. Good ES goal-scorer, can be dangerous on PK counters, but he's a relative waste on the PP. You'll get a lot of standing around at the top of the LW circle or watching him walk off the LW half-wall and firing a shot into shinpads. At ES, he's best on the cycle. As you've seen in the 1st period of his first game, he's oddly dangerous on wraparounds and the ensuing stuff attempts. Very good on the forecheck, as well. But expect one or two poor decisions per game where you're left asking yourself why he didn't make a certain play that seemed so obvious. Overall, I think he'll be a good add for a good team who struggles scoring ES goals and has a strong locker room that Kane will respect.

The most interesting thing I take away from these stats, is that the seeming consensus from Buf fans, so far, has been to keep Kane away from players like Thornton/Eichel. Supposedly because he kills possession by shooting everything, and being selfish w/the puck in that regard.

These stats paint a very different picture, as both Kane and Eichel are both worse off away from each, than with each other...Hmmmmm

Also it seems like Kane is the better possession player, which does frankly surprise me a little with how he has been described. However without knowing who each of them played with, when not with each other, that may be due to QoT.

Needless to say, Im very interested to see how he fits in here.

Old narratives die hard on the Sabres board, and that was the narrative entering the season and it's persevered notwithstanding evidence to the contrary this season.

 

[Woodhouse]

Did you guys get a clear explanation on the lottery protection somewhere? As in simply SJS would need to win the draft lottery in 2019 to defer any 1st-round pick to 2020? Top-three protection? Top-ten protection? Top-fifteen protection? I thought tonight's broadcast said something in the third period like you'd have to win the lottery to defer, but not sure if that meant top-one or top-three lottery protection. No BUF scrum, print, or press release made it straight-forward that I saw yet.

 

[slocal]

Did you guys get a clear explanation on the lottery protection somewhere? As in simply SJS would need to win the draft lottery in 2019 to defer any 1st-round pick to 2020? Top-three protection? Top-ten protection? Top-fifteen protection? I thought tonight's broadcast said something in the third period like you'd have to win the lottery to defer, but not sure if that meant top-one or top-three lottery protection. No BUF scrum, print, or press release made it straight-forward that I saw yet.

The way I heard Hahn say it, if the Sharks are a lottery team, "it won't be that draft pick". I'm not sure if that means the 1st magically disappears altogether, or it's deferred to 2020. He didn't say.

Sorry I can't clear it up.

 

[Savant]

Just got back from game. Kane was noticeably the best player on the ice tonight.