OT: Severe Weather Discussion II

[TeamKidd]

close shave between a foot and a few slushy inches and a driving rain. given the amount of cold air in place i'll lean more on snow. but it is not a given. at all. late morning wednesday through evening on most of the accumulating stuff...

 

[Tres Peleches]

close shave between a foot and a few slushy inches and a driving rain. given the amount of cold air in place i'll lean more on snow. but it is not a given. at all. late morning wednesday through evening on most of the accumulating stuff...

I'm bullish for at least western Suffolk westward. So long as the ULL doesn't gain too much latitude, that track screams major snowstorm.

Strengthening System riding northward then due east south of the Island then northeast towards the Cape? Yeah, that's classic.

Only question for me is the BL, especially given it is 2 weeks from The vernal equinox, but still if it's thumping with temps of 35 it's going to stick. Temps above say 970mb look plenty cold for snow on NAM and EURO... GFS, RGEM a bit warmer.

21z SREFS had a mean of almost 9 inches of snow at ISP. Probably of more importance is that, at most, it spits out about a 27% chance of a p-type of rain (down from 30% at 15z). And that's at ISP, it's safe to assume it would be much lower in places like western Suffolk and westward.

Eagerly awaiting the 00z guidance

 

[TeamKidd]

I'm bullish for at least western Suffolk westward. So long as the ULL doesn't gain too much latitude, that track screams major snowstorm.

Strengthening System riding northward then due east south of the Island then northeast towards the Cape? Yeah, that's classic.

Only question for me is the BL, especially given it is 2 weeks from The vernal equinox, but still if it's thumping with temps of 35 it's going to stick. Temps above say 970mb look plenty cold for snow on NAM and EURO... GFS, RGEM a bit warmer.

21z SREFS had a mean of almost 9 inches of snow at ISP. Probably of more importance is that, at most, it spits out about a 27% chance of a p-type of rain (down from 30% at 15z). And that's at ISP, it's safe to assume it would be much lower in places like western Suffolk and westward.

Eagerly awaiting the 00z guidance

Yeah NAM coming in with a foot of snow for LI, especially western suffolk and west. Given it almost snowed last storm and it was 60 degrees the day before, this one has a lot more cold to work with so i'm leaning that way too...especially as low pulls away, north wind, VERY cold aloft...badaboom.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Yeah NAM coming in with a foot of snow for LI, especially western suffolk and west. Given it almost snowed last storm and it was 60 degrees the day before, this one has a lot more cold to work with so i'm leaning that way too...especially as low pulls away, north wind, VERY cold aloft...badaboom.

Yeah. At first it looked worse with a bit of rain at the onset. That was because there was a piece of the s/w that dragged behind a bit knocking it a bit out of sync. Once it caught up though boom.

The evening rush hour would be a disaster, should this verify.

The hi-res NAM is even more absurd lol

 

[periferal]

I'm bullish for at least western Suffolk westward. So long as the ULL doesn't gain too much latitude, that track screams major snowstorm.

Strengthening System riding northward then due east south of the Island then northeast towards the Cape? Yeah, that's classic.

Only question for me is the BL, especially given it is 2 weeks from The vernal equinox, but still if it's thumping with temps of 35 it's going to stick. Temps above say 970mb look plenty cold for snow on NAM and EURO... GFS, RGEM a bit warmer.

21z SREFS had a mean of almost 9 inches of snow at ISP. Probably of more importance is that, at most, it spits out about a 27% chance of a p-type of rain (down from 30% at 15z). And that's at ISP, it's safe to assume it would be much lower in places like western Suffolk and westward.

Eagerly awaiting the 00z guidance

I put this post into Google Translate and still nothing. Can you assist?

 

[Riseonfire]

NYC DOE....... do the right thing. hah

 

[Tres Peleches]

I put this post into Google Translate and still nothing. Can you assist?

Well, seeing how much you don't like Snow, it's not good news

 

[periferal]

Well, seeing how much you don't like Snow, it's not good news

Very well played. I live in Westchester. Any hope for me?

 

[Tres Peleches]

Very well played. I live in Westchester. Any hope for me?

No, not likely methinks unfortunately. Likely too far northwest for rain, too far southeast to miss heavy snow.

Here's hoping you guys get power back before the storm, sounds like you guys had it rough up there with the last one.

New GFS isn't much snow for LI... incredible the differences about 30 hours out. Low confidence forecast for sure.

 

[periferal]

No, not likely methinks unfortunately. Likely too far northwest for rain, too far southeast to miss heavy snow.

Here's hoping you guys get power back before the storm, sounds like you guys had it rough up there with the last one.

New GFS isn't much snow for LI... incredible the differences about 30 hours out. Low confidence forecast for sure.

Sounds like weather is a real hobby for you. I don't even understand some of the terms you're using.

I'm not home now as I had to flee Westchester for family in CT, but I think we got power back tonight (but no internet).

 

[Bones45]

Accuweather has LI right at the cutoff b/t rain/snow mix and snow.. so.. anyones guess.

So the forecast is anywhere between 3 - 12" .

Lovely.

 

[nycole]

I put this post into Google Translate and still nothing. Can you assist?

We're gonna get pounded with 9 inches.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

We're gonna get pounded with 9 inches.

Tri-state area is going to get dumped on.

 

[Bones45]

We're gonna get pounded with 9 inches.

Good thing this is a PG board and not R.....

 

[TeamKidd]

Rain snow line right over Long Island. NW of it, a foot of snow. SE of it...not much. On it...Somewhere in between with sleet.

Models have trended a bit warmer and wetter (read:less snowier) for LI today. Glad i’m Not making real forecasts and school decisions anymore...

 

[MJF]

We're gonna get pounded with 9 inches.

We’ve gotten pounded with 9 inches for over 25 years

 

[Tres Peleches]

Rain snow line right over Long Island. NW of it, a foot of snow. SE of it...not much. On it...Somewhere in between with sleet.

Models have trended a bit warmer and wetter (read:less snowier) for LI today. Glad i’m Not making real forecasts and school decisions anymore...

You and me both. No idea why "me" autocorrected to that, definitely not trying to take a shot at you lol. I'm glad to not be doing that anymore either, is what I was trying to say

Anyway, just a heads up tomorrow evenings commute may be really dicey, particularly for western Suffolk Westward. 00z stuff came in colder for the most part, which, if correct, could mean the threat for heavy snow from midday through the being commute.

Will have to watch closely, stay tuned to the NWS and whatnot

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Kind of crazy still seeing varying snow totals depending on the source. Newsday is saying 8-12 where as channel 2 said at noon that south shore Nassau was only 2-4in.

 

[MattMartin]

Kind of crazy still seeing varying snow totals depending on the source. Newsday is saying 8-12 where as channel 2 said at noon that south shore Nassau was only 2-4in.

I wish I was that "big".

 

[Bones45]

im just north of the ISP airport and we have nada.

 

[brachyrynchos]

Definitely starting to pick up near 135 & 24 in the last hour, beginning to stick, close to an inch. Getting heavier as temps drop. Sucks... should've bought more Zywiec porter @ east meadow. Be safe guys.

 

[periferal]

We're gonna get pounded with 9 inches.

There's "Off-Topic," and then there's this.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Round 3 Tuesday.. news 12 saying up to 8 inches on parts of the island.

 

[BrockLobster]

Round 3 Tuesday.. news 12 saying up to 8 inches on parts of the island.

Ugh...

 

[Riseonfire]

Looks more likely than not for a snow event Tuesday morning.

Would love a heavy burst of snow to ruin the commute.