Post-Game Talk: "Scheifele wins the draw, Ladd shoots it high!" And other ref stories. Jets fall 4-3.

[cbcwpg]

Well, if you sort that by GP or TOI he's Top 10!

BTW: It's ridiculous that this team continues to ride the 60th best SV% goalie in the league like this. Unconscionable. If Pavs plays more than 50% of the remaining games, then we have to assume that a) Noel and Maurice are both incompetent; or b) Some other mysterious figure is behind this...

The figure you are looking for are dollar signs.

We play him because we pay him.

Same reason why the people making the most money on this team never sit no matter how bad they play. IMO

 

[pucka lucka]

From what I understand the correlation between Sv% and team is teeny-tiny, Pavelec has had a below average Sv% his entire career (save for 1 season) = Pavelec isn't very good regardless of the team playing in front of him or He has some how managed to play on teams with historically bad defences his entire career. Am I missing something here?

You probably are missing something as am i. We just don't know what.

 

[peg]

Just picking a few names at random (well, actually Canada's olympic goalies), one of these things doesn't belong here:

Montoya 2.22 .925
Smith 2.91 .908
Price 2.44 .921
Luongo 2.25 .921

Pavelec 2.99 .901

Montoya's sample size is not that small. He has played in 16 games, won most of them and has actually better numbers than the starting goalies in Phoenix, Montreal and Vancouver (and many others). Based on results oriented thinking, Montoya should be our starter until he gives us reason to think otherwise. NOT Pavelec.

 

[tbcwpg]

From what I understand the correlation between Sv% and team is teeny-tiny, Pavelec has had a below average Sv% his entire career (save for 1 season) = Pavelec isn't very good regardless of the team playing in front of him or He has some how managed to play on teams with historically bad defences his entire career. Am I missing something here?

You're missing that no one is claiming that he's a good goalie anymore, but the fact he's a bad goalie doesn't excuse poor defending either. When we bring up poor defensive play it's not to mitigate Pavelec's faults, they can be two separate issues, which I think some fail to realize.

 

[Duke749]

Just picking a few names at random (well, actually Canada's olympic goalies), one of these things doesn't belong here:

Montoya 2.22 .925
Smith 2.91 .908
Price 2.44 .921
Luongo 2.25 .921

Pavelec 2.99 .901

Montoya's sample size is not that small. He has played in 16 games, won most of them and has actually better numbers than the starting goalies in Phoenix, Montreal and Vancouver (and many others). Based on results oriented thinking, Montoya should be our starter until he gives us reason to think otherwise. NOT Pavelec.

Ok, let's not get to out of hand now..

 

[garret9]

You're missing that no one is claiming that he's a good goalie anymore, but the fact he's a bad goalie doesn't excuse poor defending either. When we bring up poor defensive play it's not to mitigate Pavelec's faults, they can be two separate issues, which I think some fail to realize.

True, true.

Their is a tendency (including with myself) to focus the blame on plays to one individual, when realistically, it should probably be multiples more often than not (but not always).

Hockey's a game of mistakes. Mistakes happen, but you gotta minimize them AMAP.

 

[pucka lucka]

True, true.

Their is a tendency (including with myself) to focus the blame on plays to one individual, when realistically, it should probably be multiples more often than not (but not always).

Hockey's a game of mistakes. Mistakes happen, but you gotta minimize them AMAP.

There is some faulty thinking in there. I am pretty sure you know this.

 

[Gm0ney]

I told myself that this would be the final year I look for the possibility of improvement from Pavelec.

The season is not yet up. I will still give Pavs the chance... but time is running out.

The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is Pavelec going on a tear in the last meaningless 20 games of the year, ensuring he's not bought out or otherwise moved aside and assuring 3 more years of (way) below average starting goaltending in Winnipeg.

Where would the Jets be in the standings right now if Khudobin and Montoya were splitting the starts here this year? It would mean 30 less goals against. A +23 goal differential (not -7). They'd be in a playoff spot.

 

[Bartho]

True, true.

Their is a tendency (including with myself) to focus the blame on plays to one individual, when realistically, it should probably be multiples more often than not (but not always).

Hockey's a game of mistakes. Mistakes happen, but you gotta minimize them AMAP.

This feels like a breakthrough.

All kidding aside, IMO Pavelec is not a good NHL caliber goaltender. If Montoya gets more starts (which I believe he should) I fear that his performance in the long run will not be much better than Pavelec's. Sadly, they're what we have at the moment, so I hope for each of them to have success when they play.

The team has other issues, however, pointing them out ≠ defending or deflecting the problems in net.

 

[Gm0ney]

The figure you are looking for are dollar signs.

We play him because we pay him.

Same reason why the people making the most money on this team never sit no matter how bad they play. IMO

So the coach is using Capgeek to help sort out the starting roster? Fascinating!

 

[Hank Chinaski]

The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is Pavelec going on a tear in the last meaningless 20 games of the year, ensuring he's not bought out or otherwise moved aside and assuring 3 more years of (way) below average starting goaltending in Winnipeg.

Where would the Jets be in the standings right now if Khudobin and Montoya were splitting the starts here this year? It would mean 30 less goals against. A +23 goal differential (not -7). They'd be in a playoff spot.

Nope, Khudobin's numbers would crash back down to earth. Remember, he's insulated by that brilliant Carolina defensive system!

 

[veganhunter]

You're missing that no one is claiming that he's a good goalie anymore, but the fact he's a bad goalie doesn't excuse poor defending either. When we bring up poor defensive play it's not to mitigate Pavelec's faults, they can be two separate issues, which I think some fail to realize.

Unless the Jets have a historically bad defence it doesn't matter all that much. We likely don't make significantly more or less defensive mistakes than 1/2 the teams in the NHL (just highlighted more because a higher percentage of them end up in the net), if we had an NHL average goaltender in net, less chances would be capitalized on = likely more wins.

 

[garret9]

The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is Pavelec going on a tear in the last meaningless 20 games of the year, ensuring he's not bought out or otherwise moved aside and assuring 3 more years of (way) below average starting goaltending in Winnipeg.

Where would the Jets be in the standings right now if Khudobin and Montoya were splitting the starts here this year? It would mean 30 less goals against. A +23 goal differential (not -7). They'd be in a playoff spot.

Jets right now have:
20th best 5v5 shot +/-
21st best 5v5close shot +/-
Although, Jets are 14th when including special teams for shots +/-

I don't know if we can say Jets are a playoff team (skill-wise) with a league-average goalie, but they would be in the picture for sure.

 

[DarthMonty]

Are you terming the Toronto and last night as the absolute stinkers? He was pretty good against Phoenix when he had to be, which admittedly wasn't very often. Calgary he was meh, don't think he could do much on the goals but he wasn't tested that much (22 shots).

I don't think many people blame the team as much as Pavelec, I think some people (like myself) think that this team has more than one problem, and if you can fix the defensive coverage along the way, the team will be better off. The team might be a better goalie away from competing for the playoffs, but this defence is not getting them far if they make it, so why not focus on both areas of weakness and improve? Pavelec is probably the biggest and easiest problem to fix, but let's not pretend that there aren't other problems here.

You can't use this much logic here. You'll hurt peoples' brains doing that.

 

[tbcwpg]

Unless the Jets have a historically bad defence it doesn't matter all that much. We likely don't make significantly more or less defensive mistakes than 1/2 the teams in the NHL (just highlighted more because a higher percentage of them end up in the net), if we had an NHL average goaltender in net, less chances would be capitalized on = likely more wins.

I really can't say for sure whether our defence makes more or less mistakes because I only really watch the Jets on a regular basis. The only team I follow semi-closely otherwise would be the Leafs, and they certainly make as many mistakes as the Jets, but Bernier is a better goaltender than Pavelec (someone commented in the Leafs-Jets GDT here that Reimer was simply having a bad game - he has been that bad for awhile this year). Bernier certainly stole the game against Tampa last night, but as garret loves to point out, their play is unsustainable. I would just hazard a guess that our defence makes a lot of high-profile mistakes, obviously made more visible due to the fact that they get in the back of the net, but you could say the reverse to a degree as well.

 

[SensibleGuy]

This feels like a breakthrough.

All kidding aside, IMO Pavelec is not a good NHL caliber goaltender. If Montoya gets more starts (which I believe he should) I fear that his performance in the long run will not be much better than Pavelec's.

Why do you fear this? Who cares if his performance in the long run isn't much better than Pav's? What do we lose by trying? Montoya is unlikely to be much worse, and perhaps the competition between the two gets some better games out of Pavs...

 

[wpgallday1960]

Why do you fear this? Who cares if his performance in the long run isn't much better than Pav's? What do we lose by trying? Montoya is unlikely to be much worse, and perhaps the competition between the two gets some better games out of Pavs...

I share the same fear because that means the Jets have a lousy goaltending situation and aren't going anywhere. I have no problem with Monty playing more or the majority of games to find out.

 

[JetsFan815]

2 goals Pavelec should have been better on the 1st one and 4th one
2 goals the Jets just didn't do anything on and Pavelec had not chance on them


Either way you slice it. If Pavelec is better he can stop those 2 or if the Jets are better you can stop those 2. The Jets win this game if 1 of the 2 above are better.

You can dump on Pavelec and rightly so but you also have to dump on the Jets D zone coverage. It was piss poor on both those goals.

But defensive zone breakdowns happen no matter how good the defence is. At some point you gotta realize that there is another team on the ice trying to do its own thing with talented players too! Besides... no one here is absolving the Jets D corps of blame, when you have guys like Stuart and Ellerby playing prominent roles on your D then ofcourse there is tons of room for improvement (it starts with Buff moving back RD).

Instead of looking at specific goals for specific games, look at Pavelec on a macro level. His 5-on-5 sv% about 1.5% lower than the median NHL goalie. Jets give up a little over 30 shots a game. If you extrapolate that, Pavs' lower sv% leads to him giving up about 2 goals every 4 games that a goalie with a median NHL sv% would theoretically save. It's all fine to expect your D to play over its head and prevent that extra goal or two in a game but you are expecting your D to consistently play over its head game in game out just to make up for Pavelec under-performing relative to his peers, which is quite something to ask.

 

[ICdave]

Coach Maurice - Assessing the team’s defensive zone concept. On Pavelec’s play. Letdown game last night? Does having a young team alter his coaching? Olympic break fitness talk. Concern with those players being overtaxed. On Paul Postma and Zach Redmond. Why not go back to Al?

To listen click here.

 

[Bristo]

[mod]

Anyway, the team has a bunch of problems, probably the simplest to fix is the goalie situation because it's just one part. From what I'm able to see (and admittedly this isn't my forte) the team just plays better in front of Montoya. This might be a compatibility thing, as was described elsewhere - here in North America F and D players are taught to behave a certain way on the ice so the goalie can do 'X', and it seems that Pav and the rest of the team might not be in sync with each other. It might not be that Pav is so bad so much as he as a part doesn't mesh with the team as well as others might.

That isn't damnation of him, to me that's a fault of both sides and their inability to adapt to each other. In fact, it might be less Pav's fault than the rest of the team. But he being a single part of the machine is probably easier to replace than rebuilding/recoaching the whole team in front of him.

 

[Gm0ney]

Jets right now have:
20th best 5v5 shot +/-
21st best 5v5close shot +/-
Although, Jets are 14th when including special teams for shots +/-

I don't know if we can say Jets are a playoff team (skill-wise) with a league-average goalie, but they would be in the picture for sure.

Well, I was assuming .925 goaltending - which is above average. The Jets are 8 points out of the Wildcard right now with .907 team SV% (155 GA on 1665 shots). 30 less goals against (.925 on 1665 shots) would equal at least 8 points - some of them taken from teams ahead of us, too...so yeah, I'm pretty confident we'd be sitting pretty with elite goaltending...

 

[Andy6]

Except nothing you are saying is true. Take a gander.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLGAGALL&sort=savePercentage&viewName=summary

How does that list relate to anything I said? I think we all understand that his save percentage is low. That fact doesn't affect the truth of anything in my post, as far as I can see.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Enough about the NT stuff, gang.

You can discuss Myers-Briggs personality typing in the OT thread.

 

[Bartho]

Why do you fear this? Who cares if his performance in the long run isn't much better than Pav's? What do we lose by trying? Montoya is unlikely to be much worse, and perhaps the competition between the two gets some better games out of Pavs...

Because historically his numbers are similar to Pavelec's.

I agree we have nothing to lose by playing him which is why I hope he gets more starts.

[mod]

 

[SensibleGuy]

I pretty much expect that Monty isn't likely much better than Pavelec. I don't fear that discovery. I'm hoping perhaps he might surprise me and be a bit of an improvement over Pav's though. I just don't see any benefit to playing Pav's more than Monty. In fact Pavs seems to play better when he's rested so maybe that (as well as a bit of healthy competition for the starts) might be a benny of playing monty more too...