Proposal: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Under Sell and Over Deliver or Stuck in First Gear?

[McTonyBrar]

By the end of the series Nurse was playing 4 and 5 minute shifts because most of the Oiler's defensemen were liabilities in a fast paced, high pressure environment. The depth problems of the Oilers effects both the forwards and defense, a problem exasperated by the fact that Barrie probably won't be back.

No I agree that we still need puck moving Dmen but I think bringing in cheaper ones is a better idea

 

[McTonyBrar]

Gretzky played on 4 teams. Nobody wanted him...

Lol Hamilton is much younger. I'd be ecstatic if we got Hamilton but I think it would be better to bring in more depth than an 8 million dollar Dman

 

[CycloneSweep]

Gretzky played on 4 teams. Nobody wanted him...

Hall already at 5

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Parayko (trade) and Oleksiak

I would make the defense much better in a hurry, and (assuming you trade Bear in the deal) Bouchard could still get all the choice PP time while playing on the 3rd pair.

 

[McDNicks17]

Depth scoring forwards would help more than another offensive Dman. Barrie showed us that last season

Barrie played like 10 combined minutes with depth players last season, so obviously he didn't improve depth scoring.

The depth players played with four guys who couldn't complete an outlet pass to save their lives.

 

[iCanada]

Just wanted to chirp in and say that GF% vs xGF% is a pet peeve of mine. I don't think either of those stats actually tell the story.

As a coach, I might recognize that my player got lucky by giving away a high-danger chance and being bailed out by his goalie. He's still sitting on the bench even if it didn't show up on his GF%.

On the flip side... if I have Shawn Horcoff or Marty Reasoner getting grade-A chance after grade-A chance in a prime scoring position... it's still not going to make me feel any better when their xGF% stats are looking better while they muffin yet another shot into the goalie's crest.

It's a double standard, but on offense I want results ("bear down... find a way"). On defense I want to minimize risk ("smart decisions").... but it speaks to my point that neither of these stats are all that useful, but if I have to choose, I'm looking for results rather than expected results.

I think in both cases both numbers are valuable.

On offense, you have some guys who for the life of them can't cash but generate opportunities left and right. You point to Horcoff and Reasoner, but the guy that comes to my mind almost instantaneously is Josh Anderson, Paul Byron, Patrick Marleau or guys like Glenncross and Mangiapane. These players have no real finish, but are clearly guys that generate possession and chances; if you put them beside the right player (say a Tyler Toffoli or Johnny Gaudreau) Then suddenly they move the dial for you quite nicely.

On the other hand, you have guys that are clearly elite level finishers that could cash on anything semblancing a scoring chance, but are rarely the kind of players that create these opportunities themselves. Guys like Patrik Laine, Tyler Toffoli, Jonathan Cheechoo or Steven Stamkos.

Both of those niches are extremely valuable if you lack the other one.

As for the defensive side of things, I think there is something to be said for not actually getting scored on. Obviously if you just have high possession and don't let scoring chances through then you're great defensively.

But I think people sleep on players that consistently outperform their xGA in their actual GA. A guy like Russell is the perfect example of that. His possession is awful. But he's made a career of being trusted to not let the puck in his net, despite having bad possession and giving up a similar number of chances to his contemporaries. But... he still just manages to not get scored on despite this and has for almost 1000 gp over the course of 16 years. Clearly it's not luck. And I think that has a lot of value.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Mikhail Grigorenko to KHL 3 year deal

 

[McTonyBrar]

Barrie played like 10 combined minutes with depth players last season, so obviously he didn't improve depth scoring.

The depth players played with four guys who couldn't complete an outlet pass to save their lives.

I should've made my post different. I meant that depth forwards probably would have helped more than Barrie

 

[Canovin]

Hall already at 5

6 teams for the Great One if you include Phoenix and TNT

 

[Little Fury]

Lol what? Take a look at where this team was before Holland. Now, take a look at it.

I took a look and Holland took a crummy team that was over-reliant on two star players and somehow made it worse.

Oilers 5v5 GF% w/out 97 and 29 on ice:
2018-19: 41.27%
2020-21: 35.80%

% of Oilers goals scored with McDavid and/or Draisaitl on ice (all situations):
2018-19 69%
2020-21: 83%

He's lost no plot. He has a plan. He said at the press conference at the deadline that you can't go all in every year and he made the right choice last season didn't he? He has a chance to ignite his plan. He's pretty much cleaned up all of Chiaturd's mistakes.

If by "cleaning up" you mean "sat on his hands and waited for the worst deals to expire" then sure.

 

[McDNicks17]

I should've made my post different. I meant that depth forwards probably would have helped more than Barrie

You're probably right.

Hamilton is different than Barrie though. He can anchor a top four pairing. You could have him and Nurse on separate pairings and have a serious boost in puck movement for most of the game.

 

[Little Fury]

Just wanted to chirp in and say that GF% vs xGF% is a pet peeve of mine. I don't think either of those stats actually tell the story.

As a coach, I might recognize that my player got lucky by giving away a high-danger chance and being bailed out by his goalie. He's still sitting on the bench even if it didn't show up on his GF%.

Unless your guy is constantly making those kinds of mistakes and getting bailed out, those errors will come out in the wash.

 

[iCanada]

I took a look and Holland took a crummy team that was over-reliant on two star players and somehow made it worse.

Oilers 5v5 GF% w/out 97 and 29 on ice:
2018-19: 41.27%
2020-21: 35.80%

% of Oilers goals scored with McDavid and/or Draisaitl on ice (all situations):
2018-19 69%
2020-21: 83%



If by "cleaning up" you mean "sat on his hands and waited for the worst deals to expire" then sure.

A large part of that is coaching. 97 & 29 get a much bigger offensive zone push with Tippett than they did with McLellan.

But it's a dire straight all the same; ideally we can push that number up to our 45%, even despite the way Tippett matches McDrai vs opposition favorably and hopes lines 2 to 4 tread water.

 

[Canovin]

Trade for Hamilton's rights. Get longer term and lower caphit

6 x 8 years

 

[Oilers in NS]

Trade for Hamilton's rights. Get longer term and lower caphit

6 x 8 years

He will be looking at Pietrolango money I bet

 

[belair]

Trade for Hamilton's rights. Get longer term and lower caphit

6 x 8 years

You won't outbid Seattle.

They can offer him eight years with the captaincy.

 

[iCanada]

You won't outbid Seattle.

They can offer him eight years with the captaincy.

Not sure Captain Nuge would be the best look for anyone.

Don't get me wrong, I like Nuge a lot, just don't think he's that kind of guy. I think Nuge would rather not be captain.

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

Not sure Captain Nuge would be the best look for anyone.

Don't get me wrong, I like Nuge a lot, just don't think he's that kind of guy. I think Nuge would rather not be captain.

I thought he was referring to Hamilton.

 

[iCanada]

I thought he was referring to Hamilton.

Oh.

Yeah you're right.

Not sure if I'd want Captain Hamilton, either. But fair point.

 

[Fourier]

Trade for Hamilton's rights. Get longer term and lower caphit

6 x 8 years

The most the Oilers could sign him to would be 7 years at this point. I don't see any way he signs for $6M in Edmonton.

 

[Bring Back Bucky]

Oh.

Yeah you're right.

Not sure if I'd want Captain Hamilton, either. But fair point.

yeah I don’t know that he’s captain material either lol. A guy who likes to roll on his own isn’t a natural captain.

 

[K1984]

Couple things.

I've been wondering if maybe Gazzola actually knows Hall and that's why the Hall to Edmonton keeps popping up.

Other interesting thought as Shannon was on the radio and talked about his conversation with Walsh a bit on Stauffer's show. Seems like Walsh is thinking flat cap until 2024. Are we going to see agents take advantage of this? Are we going to see maybe 3 year deals instead of guys locking into 5+ deals? Not even UFA related, but I wonder if some agents tell their guys to take shorter deals as teams just aren't willing to break the bank right now.

I'm having a difficult time envisioning a 5 year flat cap without the league changing mechanics of how contracts are handled. At some point teams en masse will have to let their expiring entry level contracts walk, except they won't have anywhere to go to because all the other teams will be capped as well.

This won't happen because the owners will be entrenched in the position of not spending an unnecessary penny and the PA is going to follow their traditional model of protecting their senior, high paid members at the expense of younger or shorter term NHLers. I honestly have no idea what this looks like to appease both sides, but at some point the math just isn't going to work here league wide. Maybe a temporary luxury tax system where the big spenders can still big spend and the poor clubs are covered, but that opens up a can of worms for the league and would be red meat for the PA to make it permanent.

 

[barry halls]

I don't see how that's concerning as he needs to do both? It's not like he said "I'm not going to make a trade just use free agency!"

It’s concerning because he is wrong, Bergevin has built Montreal via trade moreso than ufa signings. Also, when asked if he needs to make a trade at the year-end presser, Holland didn’t sound so sure.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I took a look and Holland took a crummy team that was over-reliant on two star players and somehow made it worse.

Oilers 5v5 GF% w/out 97 and 29 on ice:
2018-19: 41.27%
2020-21: 35.80%

% of Oilers goals scored with McDavid and/or Draisaitl on ice (all situations):
2018-19 69%
2020-21: 83%



If by "cleaning up" you mean "sat on his hands and waited for the worst deals to expire" then sure.

He traded away Lucic though? Also, it is no coincidence that the team went from where it was to being close to top of the division and the playoffs

 

[McTonyBrar]

Trade for Hamilton's rights. Get longer term and lower caphit

6 x 8 years

I think he'd want more