Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVI

[Miamipuck]

Lol about trading Panarin.

You guys might as well talk about your desire to be Queen of England because that's more likely to happen than AP getting traded.

 

[mas0764]

For the Revenge part to work youd have to convince the player to want to go play at a college rink.

Probably would rather subtly threaten Arizona and tell them to take an offer for him or else.

Trouba is the defensive leader on this team - the hole he'd leave would be enormous.

That's not really true. He's no better than our third most important defenseman. And even at that probably not for long.

Auto-merge is the New Coke of hfboards.

I hate it.

 

[haohmaru]

That's not really true. He's no better than our third most important defenseman. And even at that probably not for long.

It is. It’s also clear that we’ll never agree on this no matter how many times you reply in the same manner. I’m not sure why you bother. If you don’t think that Trouba is the leader on the back end then we have entirely different perspectives on that and our opinions on that will never line up. We’re clearly watching things with different eyes.

 

[mas0764]

It is.

It isn't.

It’s also clear that we’ll never agree on this no matter how many times you reply in the same manner. I’m not sure why you bother.

Why do you bother? Takes two to argue. If you don't agree with what I've posted but think it's a waste of time, feel free to keep scrolling. I suspect "why I bother," is the same as why you bother.... you are here for the debate same as me. It's what message boards are for.

If you don’t think that Trouba is the leader on the back end then we have entirely different perspectives on that and our opinions on that will never line up. We’re clearly watching things with different eyes.

He's no better than the third most important defender we have. Fox is better all around and Miller probably is too. Trouba had a great game the other day and he is a valuable piece, but he's over rated defensively, he has too many bad games in that respect, and "leadership," and "checking," are the unquantifiable qualities that his defenders always fall back on when they don't have any other argument for why he's worth what we are paying him.

His clock here is ticking, sorry to tell you.

 

[duhmetreE]

It isn't.



Why do you bother? Takes two to argue. If you don't agree with what I've posted but think it's a waste of time, feel free to keep scrolling. I suspect "why I bother," is the same as why you bother.... you are here for the debate same as me. It's what message boards are for.


He's no better than the third most important defender we have. Fox is better all around and Miller probably is too. Trouba had a great game the other day and he is a valuable piece, but he's over rated defensively, he has too many bad games in that respect, and "leadership," and "checking," are the unquantifiable qualities that his defenders always fall back on when they don't have any other argument for why he's worth what we are paying him.

His clock here is ticking, sorry to tell you.

His clock is ticking based on his caphit, not what he does on the ice.

We've seen what happens to this team without Trouba or Lindgren.

 

[Fitzy]

You have enough conversations with folks here and you get the feeling for what kinds of opinions they hold that are unflappable.

Not going to chance MH's mind on goalies, or Mas's on our veteran players. Not much point on certain topics.

 

[Ola]

I feel like when Trouba is gone, people will forget what the Trouba experience was like. Kinda like with Gaborik. I will not forget.

Trouba is filling an important position for us. Schneider will need a few years more to get there.

Ultimately, the odds for a player that signs a 7 year deal in his late 20s to be traded are tremendously low/borderline non-existing. The point in time when Trouba ‘will be gone’ will coincide in time with younger posters at this place becoming grand parents — or it will probably feel like that at least…

 

[mas0764]

His clock is ticking based on his caphit, not what he does on the ice.

We've seen what happens to this team without Trouba or Lindgren.

Well the two are inter-related, of course. If he was playing like our best defender or even on par with Fox we wouldn't be having this discussion. He'd be worth it.

But the fact that our top pair next year is going to be Miller and Fox and Miller is in line for that money, and we have other people to pay, it gets tight.

Trouba is a fine second pair defender. And he does bring intangibles that are valuable.

But the problem is when you are paying Panarin, paying Zibanejad, paying Fox, have to pay Miller, have to pay Lafreniere.... you have to find cheap labor.

And you can't pay $8m to a second pair defender who is, sadly, on par with just a second pair defender.

It's not (all) an indictment of Trouba (though he does have too many bad stretches as the early part of this series indicated). It's just facts. He's behind Fox, Miller has really already passed him IMO, and dollar for dollar Lindgren is probably more valuable given his contract. And Schneider will soon be capable of most of what Trouba brings defensively.

As to the original part of the discussion - his loss would be survivable compared to too many other players on this team. Someone is going to have to go and he's a prime candidate.

 

[Ola]

What will happen to Nils Lundkvist?

His SHL team replaced him with Julius Honka. Schneider most definitely has a spot to lose and won’t. I can’t see anything happening, that can be counted on, to improve Nils’ trade value in the near future. One more year in the AHL will at best not impact his value negatively.

Is he moved before the draft? During the season but before the deadline? I hope this isn’t a situation in which Drury is sitting waiting for a call in. There is a lot more risk in leaving it unresolved until October than getting something done now. Sure, to some extent competition is good. Someone like Schneider must have a back up. Schneider shouldn’t play up until the point that he is a complete disaster, he should play because he is better than someone solid. But I rather see that whomever is to provide that depth is a vet than a kid like Nils.

 

[mas0764]

What will happen to Nils Lundkvist?

His SHL team replaced him with Julius Honka. Schneider most definitely has a spot to lose and won’t. I can’t see anything happening, that can be counted on, to improve Nils’ trade value in the near future. One more year in the AHL will at best not impact his value negatively.

Is he moved before the draft? During the season but before the deadline? I hope this isn’t a situation in which Drury is sitting waiting for a call in. There is a lot more risk in leaving it unresolved until October than getting something done now. Sure, to some extent competition is good. Someone like Schneider must have a back up. Schneider shouldn’t play up until the point that he is a complete disaster, he should play because he is better than someone solid. But I rather see that whomever is to provide that depth is a vet than a kid like Nils.

I think Nils will have value in trade for a center, or to move up in the draft to get one. Of a similar standing - ie, a prospect swap, a guy who is not proven in the NHL yet but projects as a top 6 center. I like Nils a lot but I think the org prefers Jones. And I think they will want Robertson's size more than two smaller defenders.

I would prefer to keep all of them and I would if the only issue was "do we have room for them?" - I'd keep them and let it all play out because eventually Trouba will be gone and Lindgren may be as well, and then you'd have your six of Miller, Fox, Jones, Schneider, Nils, Robertson.

But with the holes at center and with the fact that you can perhaps afford to keep Lindgren if you move Trouba, I see the value in cashing in whoever can fetch the most in trade. And I suspect that is Nils over Jones or Robertson based on draft pedigree alone.

 

[Ola]

Well the two are inter-related, of course. If he was playing like our best defender or even on par with Fox we wouldn't be having this discussion. He'd be worth it.

But the fact that our top pair next year is going to be Miller and Fox and Miller is in line for that money, and we have other people to pay, it gets tight.

Trouba is a fine second pair defender. And he does bring intangibles that are valuable.

But the problem is when you are paying Panarin, paying Zibanejad, paying Fox, have to pay Miller, have to pay Lafreniere.... you have to find cheap labor.

And you can't pay $8m to a second pair defender who is, sadly, on par with just a second pair defender.

It's not (all) an indictment of Trouba (though he does have too many bad stretches as the early part of this series indicated). It's just facts. He's behind Fox, Miller has really already passed him IMO, and dollar for dollar Lindgren is probably more valuable given his contract. And Schneider will soon be capable of most of what Trouba brings defensively.

As to the original part of the discussion - his loss would be survivable compared to too many other players on this team. Someone is going to have to go and he's a prime candidate.

I agree 100% with your logic up until the Trouba must go part.

We made the choice to go with Trouba for 7 years when we signed that contract and the odds for us to be able to change that decision a long the way is so slim that it can’t be counted on. Realistically, it’s what, 1 in a million?

I think Nils will have value in trade for a center, or to move up in the draft to get one. Of a similar standing - ie, a prospect swap, a guy who is not proven in the NHL yet but projects as a top 6 center.

Yeah this is my hope too for sure.

But moves like these aren’t easy to pull of. GMs are tremendously risk adverse and most only make moves of the type that must be made. It could be that Drury has to work really hard to get something done, if possible.

 

[haohmaru]

Why do you bother? Takes two to argue. If you don't agree with what I've posted but think it's a waste of time, feel free to keep scrolling. I suspect "why I bother," is the same as why you bother.... you are here for the debate same as me. It's what message boards are for.

I posted, you replied. Hence asking why you bother.

He's no better than the third most important defender we have. Fox is better all around and Miller probably is too. Trouba had a great game the other day and he is a valuable piece, but he's over rated defensively, he has too many bad games in that respect, and "leadership," and "checking," are the unquantifiable qualities that his defenders always fall back on when they don't have any other argument for why he's worth what we are paying him.

His clock here is ticking, sorry to tell you.

A strong argument can be made the Trouba has been the better RD since late January and the playoffs. I’m sure KAM would give him a lot of credit for his growth as a player this season.

And, I’m sorry, if you think leadership, checking, blocking shots, being a physical presence, etc… aren’t of value then I have to question, or at least ask, if you’ve ever played the sport competitively. Not to mention the guy put up a ton of points with very little ATOI on the PP and most of those minutes spent with the 2nd unit for 20-40 seconds retrieving a cleared pick and trying to enter the zone again.

Your NMC fantasies are just that at this point. Maybe in a couple of years but no time soon. We’ll see.

 

[mas0764]

I posted, you replied. Hence asking why you bother.

And I'm saying why I bother is the same reason you have bothered to continue to respond. We are here for debate.

A strong argument can be made the Trouba has been the better RD since late January and the playoffs.

That's not a very strong argument.

I’m sure KAM would give him a lot of credit for his growth as a player this season.

I am sure he would, and I also give Trouba that credit. It doesn't change my point. I agree Trouba has value; just not what he costs. In a capless world Trouba could stay until one of the kids takes his job but we don't live in that world. We have to project based on cost to a degree.

And, I’m sorry, if you think leadership, checking, blocking shots, being a physical presence, etc… aren’t of value then I have to question, or at least ask, if you’ve ever played the sport competitively. Not to mention the guy put up a ton of points with very little ATOI on the PP and most of those minutes spent with the 2nd unit for 20-40 seconds retrieving a cleared pick and trying to enter the zone again.

Your NMC fantasies are just that at this point. Maybe in a couple of years but no time soon. We’ll see.

They are of value, but they are unquantifiable. And I am insinuating (actually, stating outright) that those values are used disingenuously by people to prop up what is obviously an inferior player (inferior to a player like Fox, not meaning outright bad) because they like that player. It's like when people are arguing about running backs and someone brings up pass protection. Like... great, but that's not why we are paying that position.

And we are sitting here in other threads talking about Fox should be the captain. We are overselling this leadership thing a bit. We have other players who are capable of being leaders. We have other players who are physical. Every time we have this argument it shifts into a recounting of "these are the things Trouba does."

I understand that. But you can't pay him $8m to do it for much longer.

His clock here is ticking.

If it was up to me (which it isn't, and the team has already shown it's willingness to make bad value moves to favor the now over the long term health of the organization), I would much rather lock down players like Miller and Lafrieniere to long term deals as opposed to having another season of Trouba at $8m.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I posted, you replied. Hence asking why you bother.


A strong argument can be made the Trouba has been the better RD since late January and the playoffs. I’m sure KAM would give him a lot of credit for his growth as a player this season.

And, I’m sorry, if you think leadership, checking, blocking shots, being a physical presence, etc… aren’t of value then I have to question, or at least ask, if you’ve ever played the sport competitively. Not to mention the guy put up a ton of points with very little ATOI on the PP and most of those minutes spent with the 2nd unit for 20-40 seconds retrieving a cleared pick and trying to enter the zone again.

Your NMC fantasies are just that at this point. Maybe in a couple of years but no time soon. We’ll see.

Trouba is a very big part of this defense. I don't see him being moved immediately but when his full NMC becomes a 12 team list in 24-25 I think he's gone. I think we "ask" if he's ok being moved earlier.
He's definitely not worth his current cap hit, but he's also not too far off. He's about worth a 6m defender right now. Adding in the intangibles such as leadership, and a physical presence make up for that value.
The problem is that schneider will add the physicality sooner than later, and will need a contract.

I do think CK is gone before trouba though.
We're deeper at the position, he's more valuable since he's coming off an absolutely insane year, and he's got a more reasonable cap hit so he can be moved.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What will happen to Nils Lundkvist?

His SHL team replaced him with Julius Honka. Schneider most definitely has a spot to lose and won’t. I can’t see anything happening, that can be counted on, to improve Nils’ trade value in the near future. One more year in the AHL will at best not impact his value negatively.

Is he moved before the draft? During the season but before the deadline? I hope this isn’t a situation in which Drury is sitting waiting for a call in. There is a lot more risk in leaving it unresolved until October than getting something done now. Sure, to some extent competition is good. Someone like Schneider must have a back up. Schneider shouldn’t play up until the point that he is a complete disaster, he should play because he is better than someone solid. But I rather see that whomever is to provide that depth is a vet than a kid like Nils.

If theres someone who slips to the mid 1st in this draft ala Tarasenko, I wouldn't mind making that move at this point.

Maybe this isn't the year to do it, but his future is either in a deal like that or packaged with other pieces for a bigger fish. I agree that sooner is better for moving him, his value has already dropped compared to where it was last year at this time.

 

[bleedblue94]

For the Revenge part to work youd have to convince the player to want to go play at a college rink.

you'd be high to not think financially a player like laf would consider taking a 6,166,096 mil aav offer coming off his elc regardless of the rink. it would help arz reach the floor, they could structure it to pay the player on the backend of the deal when they have revenues from the new building, and for a young potential star to finally be given the keys to be an impact player for a team. i am not saying it will happen, but there is absolutely a justification for something like that to happen, and the idea of a player signing such an offersheet will only improve next summer if the tempe project is approved and especially if they win the bedard sweepstakes.

 

[bleedblue94]

We are discussing trading Panarin now? lol.

there is a case for it including age, cap hit, style of play, excess players at lw.

when he signed here we had a dearth of skill and he was a revelation. the team is at a different point now. this isnt to say it will or even should happen, but the case can be made that it is worth exploring.

for what it is worth for his playoff career he has 35 games, 12 goals, 22 assists, -8, 12 ppp.

for additional context, for as bad as he has been in this series he is somehow a +1 which is only the second time in his career he has been a plus playoff player. complain all you want about that stat, but if you are a point a game offensive player it is ugly to be a minus player as well...

 

[bleedblue94]

I'm really not sure the value around the league for nils matches anywhere close to what this board puts on him.

15pts in 34 games in the ahl and a minus 9 for an undersized defenseman doesn't really scream valuable asset, and his play was not impressive in the NHL as well. I understand he is a kid, but he played roughly 3.5 years of professional hockey before this season. Not at all implying he is a bust or worthless, but I dont think he is landing you a 1st rounder at this point in a trade...

 

[duhmetreE]

I'm really not sure the value around the league for nils matches anywhere close to what this board puts on him.

15pts in 34 games in the ahl and a minus 9 for an undersized defenseman doesn't really scream valuable asset, and his play was not impressive in the NHL as well. I understand he is a kid, but he played roughly 3.5 years of professional hockey before this season. Not at all implying he is a bust or worthless, but I dont think he is landing you a 1st rounder at this point in a trade...

Nils for Hayton type deals.

or I'm still on the Nils for Turcotte. Still think he will be a Cirelli type. I don't care that he's not an offensive star... that's not why I want him.

 

[bleedblue94]

Nils for Hayton type deals.

or I'm still on the Nils for Turcotte. Still think he will be a Cirelli type. I don't care that he's not an offensive star... that's not why I want him.

I think if either of those were an option they would have already been done, hence my point about his league wide value. I just dont think it is there...

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Nils for Hayton type deals.

or I'm still on the Nils for Turcotte. Still think he will be a Cirelli type. I don't care that he's not an offensive star... that's not why I want him.

Turcotte has suffered like 3 concussions this year with the latest one being pretty major.

 

[duhmetreE]

Turcotte has suffered like 3 concussions this year with the latest one being pretty major.

has he really? that's some career ending type shit

 

[NYR Viper]

Trouba is a very big part of this defense. I don't see him being moved immediately but when his full NMC becomes a 12 team list in 24-25 I think he's gone. I think we "ask" if he's ok being moved earlier.
He's definitely not worth his current cap hit, but he's also not too far off. He's about worth a 6m defender right now. Adding in the intangibles such as leadership, and a physical presence make up for that value.
The problem is that schneider will add the physicality sooner than later, and will need a contract.

I do think CK is gone before trouba though.
We're deeper at the position, he's more valuable since he's coming off an absolutely insane year, and he's got a more reasonable cap hit so he can be moved.

I think this is skewed a bit though. Trouba gets practically no PP1 time and tus, gets practically no PP time because PP1 stays out for 1:45 of every PP. He had 39 points in 81 games with 4 points on the powerplay. To put that in perspective, the year he had 50 points he had 18 points on the PP. So he is actually OUT PRODUCING his 5v5 production from his 50 point season.

I think that if he were given a similar role to that which he had his final year in Winnipeg, it's safe to assume he would be hovering around 50 points. A RD who plays physical, plays 20-22 minutes a night and puts up 50 points is worth $8m per season.

The issue is, he can't fill that specific role here because of Fox. I could see other teams, who are looking for that specific type of defenseman, being very interested even at $8m.

 

[mas0764]

I think this is skewed a bit though. Trouba gets practically no PP1 time and tus, gets practically no PP time because PP1 stays out for 1:45 of every PP. He had 39 points in 81 games with 4 points on the powerplay. To put that in perspective, the year he had 50 points he had 18 points on the PP. So he is actually OUT PRODUCING his 5v5 production from his 50 point season.

I think that if he were given a similar role to that which he had his final year in Winnipeg, it's safe to assume he would be hovering around 50 points. A RD who plays physical, plays 20-22 minutes a night and puts up 50 points is worth $8m per season.

The issue is, he can't fill that specific role here because of Fox. I could see other teams, who are looking for that specific type of defenseman, being very interested even at $8m.

Right. And that's not to say there's no value - I myself have said "If you can't carve out a role for a second offensive defenseman maybe there's something wrong with your system."

But not at $8m when your hands are tied financially cause of a covid impacted flat salary cap AND you have a plethora of other young talent coming up.

 

[NYR Viper]

Right. And that's not to say there's no value - I myself have said "If you can't carve out a role for a second offensive defenseman maybe there's something wrong with your system."

But not at $8m when your hands are tied financially cause of a covid impacted flat salary cap AND you have a plethora of other young talent coming up.

Agreed. I think this is a clear case of Trouba is worth his contract and he is extremely valuable to this, or really most teams. The issue is the salary cap.

It's the same exact case with Kreider.