Pre-Game Talk: Playoff Preview: Washington Capitals (1st Metro) v Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd WildCard)

[ACC1224]

All I'm saying is that they were massive underdogs and made it through. They got hot at the right time and some players got crazy lucky, like Pisani. Either way, that's my point.

Those teams didn't have the scoring depth we have right now either. So maybe every line explodes and score a lot. Maybe Marner scores at a 2 or 3 points a game clip in this series. Maybe Andersen gets hot again and plays like he did in March/December. Maybe Rielly turns into Nidermayer in this series.

Again, this isn't about us having a good chance because we clearly don't but let's not get into that this is impossible. There is a chance but a lot of things have to go right to have that chance... which is what happens to underdogs when they win.

I'm sure most would feel better if they were playing well heading into the playoffs. they didn't look so great the past week.

 

[SprDaVE]

I'm sure most would feel better if they were playing well heading into the playoffs. they didn't look so great the past week.

I would agree for the most part but a 4 day break sounds like exactly what they needed. Didn't they have the busiest and toughest schedule to finish the season?

 

[Mess]

All I'm saying is that they were massive underdogs and made it through. They got hot at the right time and some players got crazy lucky, like Pisani. Either way, that's my point.

Those teams didn't have the scoring depth we have right now either. So maybe every line explodes and score a lot.

Again, this isn't about us having a good chance because we clearly don't but let's not get into that this is impossible. There is a chance but a lot of things have to go right to have that chance... which is what happens to underdogs when they win.

Washington scored 263 GF compared to Leafs 251 so the Caps offensive is more balanced and has more depth through all 4 lines.

Caps 4th line alone scored 33 GF from Beagle, Winnik and Wilson.

The defense however where Leafs 242 GA compared to #1 defense Caps of 182 GA is where its more likely the Washington offense explodes to score a lot.

 

[yubbers]

Tomorrow is not coming fast enough

Ovi is crying and cursing his bad luck. He knows that Matthews, Marner, Nylander, JVR and Kadri are coming and he's scared.

No one will blame him if he wets his bed tonight

 

[ACC1224]

I would agree for the most part but a 4 day break sounds like exactly what they needed. Didn't they have the busiest and toughest schedule to finish the season?

Not sure but they definately needed a break.

 

[The Examiner]

Oilers had Pronger, Smyth, Hemsky, Peca, and Rolston... and Pisani went crazy.
All I remember with habs was halak turned into hasek.
Leafs don't have a Pronger or Peca, but if Anderson can turn into hasek and the rookies catch fire and JVR and Kadri step it up then we might have a chance... Brown can be this years Fernando Pisani.

This is why I like the 1998 example. The Devils had Brodeur and prime Niedermayer and Stevens.

The Sens were fairly young and all they really had up front was Alfreddson and Yashin. Their D was awful as they didn't have Chara yet. Redden and Phillips were 20 and 19 years old. Damien Rhodes was the goalie.

The Devils weren't the offensive juggernaut that the Caps are but the Sens offence wasn't as good as the Leafs are now.

The Devils were physical and great defensively, much like the Caps.

If I need inspiration, this is the series I look at.

Whatever happens, Andersen has to steal some games and he needs to be the best player in the series for the Leafs to stand a chance.

 

[senor martinez]

This is going to be a huge slug fest! We gon smack these fools real hard! On the ground, imagine how key kadri, boyle, polak and komarov will be... damn man. They are tough. Hyman can play the game too. We got some rock solid guys like Matt Martin back there too. We can play the dirty dirt game alright. That might decide some game. I hope we can make a miracle on ice. Our defense will be tested real hard without the key zaitsev. He is a great hockey player. Reilly must play his best game ever tomorrow guaranteed I guarantee it.

 

[SprDaVE]

Washington scored 263 GF compared to Leafs 251 so the Caps offensive is more balanced and has more depth through all 4 lines.

Caps 4th line alone scored 33 GF from Beagle, Winnik and Wilson.

The defense however where Leafs 242 GA compared to #1 defense Caps of 182 GA is where its more likely the Washington offense explodes to score a lot.

What I meant there is that the teams that upset the teams I listed weren't nearly as gifted offensively. I never said or implied that we were better offensively or even defensively than Washington.

Detroit in 2006 had one of the best offenses and defenses of the entire league, similarly to Washington right now, and they still lost in the first round.

Washington in 2009-2010 scored 313 goals for. They had a 50 goal scorer and 2 100+ point producers. They had 4 PPG players. Montreal was 26th at 210 GF. They had zero PPG players and zero 30+ goal scorers. Montreal had a GF/GA differential of -8 while the Caps had a differential of +86. Want to guess who won?

I think our chances are low, just like our chances to make the playoffs were low, but I think there's a small percentage that we could make it a series, to say otherwise is a little much.

 

[Eb]

We made the playoffs.

 

[The Examiner]

I'm sure most would feel better if they were playing well heading into the playoffs. they didn't look so great the past week.

As we get closer, my optimism grows but I can't help what I saw that last week. They looked like a team that had already clinched and were just cruising, waiting for the playoffs to start. It was very hard to watch.

My worry is that the team has the same mindset of some fans here. "We've exceeded expectations and we got into the playoffs, we're good, no matter what happens.".

I feel they had this mentality down the stretch, otherwise they would have put in a better effort and tried to get 2nd place, an easier opponent and a much better chance at success.

I'm still proud of this team and they are still learning but I don't like the defeatist attitude. Hopefully they'll come out strong on Thursday.

GO LEAFS GO!

 

[fahad203]

I really wish our fans stop being so defensive

In many threads we were considered to be swept, lose and get killed. Adding to that was Kypreos's comments. Who cares? let them talk, let them chat. We don't have to defend ourselves nor do we keep our head down.

As for the game tomorrow. I am fully expecting a better showing then the last Caps game. I know even our fans are writing this team off, I am not. I think we are much more capable of playing a better game, we have good personnel and some players will surprise you come at playoffs

Plays like Bozak, JVR, Kadri, Komo, Polak who now has been a Leafs for a while and been in some terrible teams. This is an opportunity for them. For Bozak it will only be his second playoff in 8 year career. I fully expect them to raise their game by 20%

I have absolute confidence in Babcock ( other than Hyman) that he'll prepare this team well, he'll come up with a good game plan

 

[RoadWarrior]

I'll be nice and say 6-1 Caps in game 1. Maybe 5-2 Caps in game 2.

Zaitsev is gone with post-concussion symptoms so the already thin leafs D is working with 4 AHL level guys. I would consider trying Komarov or Brown on D and I'm not joking.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Interesting. I'd bet 3:1 on them winning a game, no way I'd bet that on the series.

Which is would have greater odds, Leafs winning or getting swept?

to answer your question from a couple pages back, Leafs getting swept is much more unlikely than them winning the series. Odds for them to get swept are 5.23-1

 

[Eb]

Does anyone know people making the trek down to Washington?

 

[RoadWarrior]

to answer your question from a couple pages back, Leafs getting swept is much more unlikely than them winning the series. Odds for them to get swept are 5.23-1

Without Zaitsev I'd say the odds of them getting swept are very high.

Maybe if Holtby, Shatty and Ovie get sick with the flu or injured they have a chance but it's remote as in 20-1 remote.

 

[The Examiner]

I'll be nice and say 6-1 Caps in game 1. Maybe 5-2 Caps in game 2.

Zaitsev is gone with post-concussion symptoms so the already thin leafs D is working with 4 AHL level guys. I would consider trying Komarov or Brown on D [/d]and I'm not joking.

If it came down to that, I'd rather Valiev or Holl. I'd actually put both of them in before Marincin.

 

[JonnyMacAwesome]

Without Zaitsev I'd say the odds of them getting swept are very high.

Maybe if Holtby, Shatty and Ovie get sick with the flu or injured they have a chance but it's remote as in 20-1 remote.

I don't think our playoffs are solely determined on one player on the roster.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Without Zaitsev I'd say the odds of them getting swept are very high.

Maybe if Holtby, Shatty and Ovie get sick with the flu or injured they have a chance but it's remote as in 20-1 remote.

well if you feel that strongly feel free to put some money on it as you'd get crazy perceptual value. Odds of the leafs winning still stand at 3.3-1. You can make over $100 in profit on a $20 bet for WSH to sweep.

Odds say the most likely scenario is Washington in 5 (2-1 odds for that scenario)

 

[fahad203]

If it came down to that, I'd rather Valiev or Holl. I'd actually put both of them in before Marincin.

I wouldn't mind giving Holl a look. Big body and old enough to understand these games

I have no faith in Marincin

 

[White Shadow]

Jesus. You'd think somebody died walking into this thread. What's with all the dread?

Can't people be happy we made the playoffs?

 

[saltming]

I wouldn't mind giving Holl a look. Big body and old enough to understand these games

I have no faith in Marincin

Holl has looked really good too the past month and a bit. I'm a bit hesitant though to throw him into the playoffs with no nhl experience to know what he will be like at that level.

 

[Mess]

What I meant there is that the teams that upset the teams I listed weren't nearly as gifted offensively. I never said or implied that we were better offensively or even defensively than Washington.

Detroit in 2006 had one of the best offenses and defenses of the entire league, similarly to Washington right now, and they still lost in the first round.

Washington in 2009-2010 scored 313 goals for. They had a 50 goal scorer and 2 100+ point producers. They had 4 PPG players. Montreal was 26th at 210 GF. They had zero PPG players and zero 30+ goal scorers. Montreal had a GF/GA differential of -8 while the Caps had a differential of +86. Want to guess who won?

I think our chances are low, just like our chances to make the playoffs were low, but I think there's a small percentage that we could make it a series, to say otherwise is a little much.

Yup 7 years ago Washington was upset by a team that finished > 20 points difference in the standings, so it happens but not often.

The difference is that "Defense wins" and in that series in 2009-10 Montreal gave up 223 GA while Caps gave up +10 more at 233 GA. So it was Montreal's defense that made the difference.

In our Series this year Washington is #1 defense with 182 GA while the Leafs are #23 (only 6 teams gave up more) at 242 GA (+60 more goals against).

So the main difference in the comparison is that Montreal was -10 GA against Washington, while Leafs enter this series + 60 more goal against.

Offensively we have a glimmer of hope, but defensively this looks like a massive mismatch with #1 going against #23 in the series.

 

[ACC1224]

to answer your question from a couple pages back, Leafs getting swept is much more unlikely than them winning the series. Odds for them to get swept are 5.23-1

Makes sense, sweeps are pretty rare.

 

[ACC1224]

Jesus. You'd think somebody died walking into this thread. What's with all the dread?

Can't people be happy we made the playoffs?

Who isn't happy?

 

[stickty111]

It looks like we will be losing 50-0 after the first minute or something the way people are posting here.